Passing Matchups Week 8

Photo: Timothy T. Ludwig, USA Today Sports

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Top 5 Passing Matchups

Buffalo vs Miami

The Bills’ air attack has developed into arguably the NFL’s most potent, averaging 319 yards and 3 touchdowns since Week 3. That’s come over a variety of game types and scripts; Allen’s extreme efficiency tends to cover over the low-volume weeks. Even with a comfortable lead over the 1-6 Dolphins, he’ll be able to sample from his impressive corps of pass-catching talent to make plays and maximize his volume. Stefon Diggs hasn’t yet wowed the fantasy world with a splash game, but he remains the go-to and has yet to fall below 60 yards. The most pleasant surprise has been Emmanuel Sanders, who’s averaged 5-78-1 over this 4-game stretch. This deep, dynamic group shouldn’t have trouble weathering tight end Dawson Knox’s multi-week absence.

The Dolphins’ pass defense has quickly tumbled from the team’s only real strength to the bottom of the NFL’s barrel. Only Washington has given up more yardage, and they’ve already allowed 10 different pass-catchers to top 70 yards (4 have topped 100). Top cornerback Xavien Howard’s return from injury did nothing to stop the bleeding in last week’s loss to the Falcons. Howard and Byron Jones played well, but Matt Ryan and his receivers still made one big downfield play after another on their way to 336 yards and 2 touchdowns. There are simply too many holes to exploit here, and it’s always easy for opposing passers to find them against the Dolphins’ toothless pass rush (dead last in hurry rate, 22^nd in sacks). Weak links like Eric Rowe and the linebackers are beaten easily on cross and post plays, and the team will miss safety Jason McCourty for the next few weeks. Josh Allen and the Bills’ versatile receivers have shredded much better units than this one. They shouldn’t have trouble producing as much as they want or need to Sunday.

Philadelphia at Detroit

The Eagles’ pass game has fallen off hard since a hot start to the season. They averaged 8.0 yards per throw and 292 a game over the first 4 weeks, but have slipped to just 5.7 and 183 since. Jalen Hurts continues to improve, though, and he performed better last Sunday than his modest stat line (18 of 34, 236 yards, 2 touchdowns) suggests. He could be more consistent in placing his throws, but his receivers have struggled all season with drops and mental miscues of their own. Hurts is always fantasy-viable thanks to his legs, and coach Nick Sirianni runs a fast-paced attack that puts solid volume (35 attempts a game) in play. Of course, there’s no getting around this recent drop-off in efficiency. Rookie DeVonta Smith hasn’t been a difference-maker in weeks, and much of the recent production has been of the low-ceiling variety, centered on tight end Dallas Goedert. Thankfully, the Lions’ undermanned and overexposed secondary is on the docket. Hurts should enjoy ample time to pick apart this cherry matchup, and it’s fair to project a major bounce-back for at least a week.

The Lions secondary, which came into the season low on talent and depth, has been shredded by injuries and now stands as arguably the NFL’s worst. They’re allowing a robust 9.5 yards per attempt, half a yard more than the 31^st-place Jaguars. Second-year man Jeff Okudah hasn’t yet looked like a good cornerback, but he at least offered a glimmer of hope before his Achilles injury. Now the team leans hard on the likes of Amani Oruwariye, Jerry Jacobs, and A.J. Parker, all of whom have fared terribly in coverage throughout the season. And there’s very little safety help behind them, which allows for gobs of big-play opportunity deep down the field. They’ve already allowed 7 opposing receivers to top 100 yards, gathering 32 completions of 20+ yards along the way. It’s hard to pick the most generous individual matchup here, but this unit tends to play so soft and loose that the Eagles should find free reign wherever they go. Everyone else has, after all, and Jalen Hurts is not averse to testing the deep ball.

NY Giants at Kansas City

The Giants’ injury woes at wideout haven’t been good news, but they’ve at least clarified things for the fantasy world. With top bodies Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, and John Ross all in and out of the lineup, the healthy man/men up each week have found their way to clearer volume. Last Sunday it was Slayton, Ross, and Dante Pettis drawing 16 of Daniel Jones’ 33 targets. These have been tricky injuries that haven’t been made particularly clear until the weekends, so it’s futile to try and make sense of this unit mid-week. Neither Golladay nor Toney looks particularly close to a return, though. Shepard will lead the way in usage if he can suit up through his hamstring issues. As the slot specialist who’s often pressed outside as well, he’s caught 26 of 33 targets over his 3 full games, averaging an elite 94 yards.

The Chiefs remain one of fantasy’s most attractive matchups to target, capable of elevating even the ho-hum Giants. Most Chiefs games devolve into full-on shootouts, and that’s not just because of Patrick Mahomes II and company. It’s simply the smartest way to attack Andy Reid’s group, and the smartest way to set the game’s track-meet pace. They got a breather in Week 6 against an overmatched Taylor Heinicke, but in their other 6 games they’ve allowed 8.9 yards per attempt and 286 a game. Last Sunday, Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown had little difficulty connecting for one splash play after another for as long as the game was in question. Brown notably burned L’Jarius Sneed and Mike Hughes on back-to-back go routes up the sideline early on, setting the tone for a day in which nothing went right anywhere for the Chiefs. Charvarius Ward has returned to action, but he’s not enough for what ails this leaky unit. The safeties don’t provide much help, either, with Daniel Sorensen and Juan Thornhill almost constant targets over the middle. The beaten-up Giants are shaky from a fantasy standpoint, but they projected to some of their best volume and efficiency numbers of the year Monday night.

Denver vs Washington

The Broncos continue to learn the hard way that Teddy Bridgewater isn’t their long-term answer at quarterback. Bridgewater has continued his career pattern of starting hot (77% completion rate, 8.7 yards per throw in his first 3 games) but tailing off soon after (68% and 6.7 in his last 3). He’s a generally sound passer, relying on smarts to make up for a subpar arm, but his shaky streaks come more often than you’d like to see from that type. Bridgewater does have a nice array of weapons to throw to, though, with Courtland Sutton (20 for 282 and 2 touchdowns over the past 3 weeks) continuing to dominate down the field. Sutton has all the traits of a go-to WR1, even if his target share slips Sunday upon Jerry Jeudy’s likely return. It’s fair to expect Jeudy’s reps to be limited off the bat, so Sutton and gifted tight end Noah Fant should continue to lead the way. They’re all more than capable of working their way through Washington’s shellshocked secondary.

The Football Team entered 2021 counting its pass defense as a strength, but through seven weeks has been saddled with the opposite. It’s fair to point out their brutal early schedule, which has included pass-happy dates with the Chargers, Bills, Falcons, and Chiefs. Still, no one has allowed more raw yards or touchdowns than this group, which has already watched 11 receivers top 70 yards. Last week was more of the same, with Aaron Rodgers dissecting them on every level en route to 274 yards and 3 touchdowns in an easy win. The secondary is built on big names, but even linchpins Kendall Fuller and Landon Collins have blown more than their share of assignments. Slot man Kamren Curl, who impressed as a rookie last season, has regressed badly in his own right, and the team has given up hefty production to slot specialists like Keenan Allen (9 for 100), Sterling Shepard (9 for 94), Cole Beasley (11 for 98), and Travis Kelce (8 for 99). Not even the young, dynamic pass rush has been able to rattle opponents and keep games out of shootout territory. The Broncos will almost surely look to take advantage whenever possible.

Minnesota vs Dallas

The Vikings continue to throw more often than they’d probably like to. Kirk Cousins has put up 38+ attempts in 4 of 6 games thus far, which isn’t ideal for coach Mike Zimmer’s squad. As gifted as Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are, this attack is relatively shallow and built around the ground game. That said, the emergence of Jefferson into the NFL’s upper tiers has been fast and emphatic. The second-year phenom has caught at least 5 balls and produced 65+ yards in every game thus far. He’s effective on all levels of the field and truly dynamic deep into the secondary. Thielen’s usage varies from week to week, and while he’s well-known as a red-zone superstar, Jefferson holds the edge in targets near the end zone this year (7-6).

The Cowboys defense has taken noticeable strides here in 2021, particularly against the pass. But to be fair, there was nowhere to go but straight up after some of the decade’s worst play. This remains a shaky unit with plenty of holes for opponents to poke through. Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis have both been among the NFL’s most victimized cornerbacks for the better part of two years. Even breakout star Trevon Diggs, for all his skill and development, has been victimized on occasion. Diggs is a true gambler with seven interceptions already, but heavy gamblers guess wrong more often than most. And it’s hard to like the safety help behind them; the team misses Xavier Woods, whom they’ll face off against Sunday, more than they’d probably expected to. Ex-Falcon Damontae Kazee should be able to delay his suspension following his DWI arrest, but he’s looked like a poor substitute for Woods. The team is holding out hope for Malik Hooker, another reclamation project, to stay healthy and take the job outright. But this is still a juicy fantasy matchup, especially when the opponent is projected to throw heavily.

Bottom 5 Passing Matchups

Miami at Buffalo

The Dolphins finally saw signs of life from their passing game Sunday, posting perhaps their best half of the season in nearly edging past the Falcons. Still, this remains one of football’s most low-risk, low-reward attacks, one that seeks out short, safe throws almost exclusively. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown deep (15+ yards downfield) on just 13% of his attempts, and his 10.2 yards per completion sits 28^th among starters. In other words, he’s making less happen with the ball than the likes of Davis Mills, Taylor Heinicke, or Teddy Bridgewater. That refusal to go downfield is devastating to the fantasy values of his receivers, making target-hog rookie Jaylen Waddle (a 26% share with Tagovailoa) into just a middling play. Waddle has averaged 6 receptions a game, but last week’s 83 yards marked his season-high. With DeVante Parker and Will Fuller a mess of injuries, Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki are the only viable week-to-week plays here. For his part, Gesicki has posted 24 catches for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 4 weeks. He’s the truest beneficiary of this dink-and-dunk attack.

The Bills pass defense continues to dominate the league from a metric standpoint. They sit in first place almost across the board, leading the way in adjusted yardage, air yardage, and interception rate. Unsurprisingly, no one has allowed fewer yards or touch downs per game, and this looms with a flashing “avoid” light until further notice. Only one opponent has cleared 220 yards thus far, and that was Patrick Mahomes II, throwing 54 times in desperation mode while trying to erase a deficit. The Bills’ pass rushers have consistently hit home, hurrying passers as the league’s third-best rate while rarely having to blitz. Veterans Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes lead the way, but it’s a diverse pass-rush crew that pushes the pocket both inside and out. That gives ample slack on the back end to Tre’Davious White, rising star Taron Johnson, and arguably the game’s best safety tandem in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. White is actually in the midst of his shakiest season as a pro, but he has so much support it has yet to matter. The Bills haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiver yet, and it’s unlikely the middling Dolphins have a candidate to threaten that.

Green Bay at Arizona

The Packers already faced an uphill battle against the Cardinals’ swarming pass defense. To take it on without the services of its top two wideouts seems impossible. Davante Adams and Allen Lazard will likely sit Thursday night on the COVID list, and even No. 3 man Marquez Valdes-Scantling looks iffy to suit up due to a Covid outbreak. Adams looms larger than any receiver in football, as seen in his % target share. It’s hard to project that onto the limited Randall Cobb, so perhaps Valdes-Scantling will lead the way, though there’s a strong chance he plays limited reps. Versatile rookie Amari Rodgers brings a Ty Montgomery vibe (or a young Cobb, even) and could slide into a real role himself. Tight end Robert Tonyan Jr is more of a situational weapon than a target hog. He posted a 4-63-1 line last week, but it made for just his second game above 10 yards. Dealing with a badly stacked deck, Aaron Rodgers will likely look to hand the ball off as often as possible Thursday.

The Cardinals pass defense has been a wrecking ball throughout the young season, and they look poised to give Aaron Rodgers all he can handle. To this point they’ve allowed just a single passer to top 250 yards: that came in Week 4, as Matthew Stafford tried desperately to get his Rams back into the game. The Cardinals have been dominant across multiple different game scripts, riding a fierce pass rush that’s consistently forced errant throws and ended drives early. Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt headline the group, but it was Markus Golden who shredded the Texans last Sunday, registering three pressures and two sacks of his own. J.J. Watt will miss this week with a shoulder injury, but they will get Chandler Jones who has missed the last few weeks due to Covid. It’s been impressive to see coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit excel without much fanfare at cornerback. Third-year man Byron Murphy has taken a step forward in coverage, while ex-Falcon Robert Alford has provided strong depth as a near-full time player. If there’s a weak spot, it’s rookie Marco Wilson, who’s been picked on a few times already. But this deep, aggressive unit hides that well, and it’s hard to project a big Rodgers night on Thursday. The Packers are more likely to lean on the run and keep the ball away from the Cardinals’ defensive playmakers.

Cleveland vs Pittsburgh

The Browns have yet to announce who will be under center in Sunday’s battle with the Steelers. Baker Mayfield hasn’t been ruled out, and was taking first team reps, but it still seems hard to believe he is going to play this week as he’s dealing with a fractured shoulder and torn labrum (non-throwing arm). The team says it’s possible he will play, but there may not be a significant drop-off to Case Keenum for the Browns, but the stat outlooks for Browns receivers takes even more of a dip. Keenum is an efficient passer who avoids mistakes by simply refusing to throw down the field. None of the pass-catchers are particularly attractive in fantasy. Odell Beckham is banged up himself and has yet to produce anywhere near the capital fantasy players invested, just 45 yards a game. Jarvis Landry has returned to his role as a low-reward slot specialist. But if there’s any excitement here, it’s over speedy Donovan Peoples-Jones, who’s turned 11 targets into 171 yards and 2 touchdowns over his past 2 games. But his status is up in the air with a groin injury, leaving little dynamism in place for whoever winds up throwing the ball.

The Steelers defense has weathered a number of key injuries and remains a tough sell in fantasy matchups. They sit top-10 in yardage and touchdowns allowed, even with some inflation from a couple of garbage-time weeks. The pass rush is still stout, even with down lineman Stephon Tuitt on the shelf. Cameron Heyward is in the midst of the best season in a distinguished career; he and T.J. Watt consistently steer games with their sheer dominance of the pocket. They also make life easier for a secondary that’s solid, if unsteady in downfield coverage. Joe Haden is long past his shutdown days, but his experience and instinct work when the front seven is being disruptive. Star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has been inconsistent in his own right, and he’s yet to record an interception through six games (after 16 in his first 48). But opposing quarterbacks know what he’s capable of, and his presence is enough to limit offenses to a degree. The whole unit brings an aggressiveness that stymies most quarterbacks, so it’s hard to like Case Keenum’s chances, nor those of a banged-up Baker Mayfield.

New England at L.A. Chargers

The Patriots are enjoying Mac Jones’ progress, with the rookie completing over 70% of this throws and not making too many mistakes. But there’s very little fantasy value here to mine, especially in such a daunting matchup. Jones sits just 21^st among starting quarterbacks in yards per attempt and 22^nd in touchdown rate. This attack needs volume to produce any notable numbers, since Jones is focusing heavily on short, quick throws (24^th in depth of targets, 27^th in yards per completion). Lead wideout Jakobi Meyers has turned 8.4 targets per game into an average line of just 6 catches and 56 scoreless yards, while Nelson Agholor and N’Keal Harry have been all but invisible. Against the Chargers’ elite secondary, it appears only the tight ends, who catch their share of goal-line flips, are worth even a glance from fantasy players.

The Chargers continue to roll over one elite secondary after another, in the face of injuries and personnel losses from year to year. Here in 2021 they’ve given up just 202 yards a game, 2^nd-best in football, with just a single opponent topping 260. They’ve put together an imposing cornerback trio of Michael Davis, Chris Harris, and rookie Asante Samuel, who have simply throttled wideouts all season. Only a single wide receiver (CeeDee Lamb in Week 2) has cleared 75 yards in this matchup, a list that includes names like Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, and Marquise Brown. On the back end, Derwin James has again bounced back from serious injury to become a dominant force. James is a do-it-all playmaker who can alter drives and swing momentum virtually on his own. The only receivers to have real success thus far have been Travis Kelce and David Njoku, both tight ends schemed creatively away from those studs. That makes for a strong revenge-game narrative for Hunter Henry, but otherwise there’s no reason to target Patriots receivers in this matchup.

Chicago vs San Francisco

The Bears’ air attack has fallen apart under coach Matt Nagy. The team drafted Justin Fields in Round 1, but refuses to play to his strengths of mobility and play-action passing. As a result, he finds himself averaging a pitiful 149 yards over his 5 starts (just 6.4 per attempt), with all of 2 touchdowns on the year. Fields has yet to show notable rookie progress as a passer, but the team continues to do a poor job of sampling his talents. Through 5 starts he sits dead last among regulars in adjusted yardage rate and 32^nd in interception rate. Just as frightening, he’s been sacked on 14.4% of his dropbacks – a 52% “lead” over second-place Zach Wilson. All these sacks, turnovers, and other miscues snuff out drives and prevent Fields from making any plays of note, or developing a kinship with top receiver Allen Robinson. After averaging 100 catches, 1,199 yards, and 7 touchdowns over the past 2 years, Robinson now sits on pace for just 51-649-0 alongside Fields. He’s the only fantasy-viable member of this attack, and yet he’s barely worth playing in fantasy.

The 49ers are still rebuilding their identity on offense, but coordinator DeMeco Ryans’ defense has remained strong. They’ve had their lapses against the run, but no opponent has cleared 265 yards through the air since Jared Goff, in a Week 1 shootout packed with garbage time. Since then they’ve faced Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Carson Wentz and allowed them just 198 per game. The secondary is anchored by playmaking safety Jimmie Ward, who’s helpful in downfield coverage, as well as one of the game’s strongest cornerback duos. Emmanuel Moseley has been a pleasant surprise on the boundary, while Williams has missed much of 2021 but was one of last season’s premier slot men. Altogether, Ryans’ unit surely has a plan for Allen Robinson, the only Chicago receiver worth losing sleep over.