Dynasty Trade Value Chart: January

Photo: Joseph Maiorana, USA Today Sports

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The 2021 fantasy season is in the books so we can turn our dynasty focus entirely to 2022 and beyond. At this time of year, it is key to try to acquire some of the likely summer risers as early as possible. We will talk about who some of those players may be and which December fantasy breakouts we should be weighing most heavily moving forward.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Dynasty Web Apps

Please Note: Dynasty Web Apps will be updated in the coming days. They will incorporate Bob Henry’s rest-of-season projections along with the dynasty values you see below. Links will be added when updated

We recently introduced a customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the player values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. The newest version is available here:

We also made a simple dynasty trade value evaluator that allows you to analyze potential deals by entering the players and picks involved. It is available here:

These are still in the early stages of development so any and all feedback is appreciated (hindery@footballguys.com or @hindery on Twitter).

Quarterback

Position Notes

• There are only two dynasty quarterbacks who I would take over Joe Burrow. It will be interesting to see if the overall market gets to the same place this offseason or if my valuation will be an outlier. The case for Burrow as a Top 3 dynasty quarterback boils down to belief that (1) his surrounding talent is elite, young, and not going anywhere, (2) he only recently has returned to full health after his gruesome knee injury 13 months ago, and (3) we should put extra weight on seeing a young quarterback go out and throw for 971 yards and 8 touchdowns over a two-game stretch with high stakes for his own team and both opponents.
• The biggest judgment call dynasty owners are going to have to make this offseason is what to do with the 2021 rookie quarterbacks. This is going to be a high-stakes decision for Superflex leagues and there are going to be some huge winners and huge losers given how massive the realistic range of outcomes is for each of these young passers.

Running Back

Position Notes

• Jonathan Taylor remains the clear RB1. He is stepping into a similar role to what we have seen Derrick Henry have in the last few years. You’ll take that every day, especially in standard or half-PPR scoring. In the full PPR format, it is at least a little bit troubling that Taylor has a grand total of 1.6 receiving fantasy points (one catch for six yards in four games) since Week 13, however. In the fantasy playoffs (Week 15-17), Taylor averaged 128.7 rushing yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. Despite the impressive rushing production, his 17.4 PPG (PPR) were not carrying teams to victory. He was outscored by the likes of Rashaad Penny, Devin Singletary, Justin Jackson, and Sony Michel over this stretch.
• Speaking of Henry, it is worth noting that he looks like the early favorite to go 1.02 in redraft next year (in half-PPR) based upon early Underdog best ball ADP. He did turn 28-years old today, however. He is going to be a tough valuation this offseason. If he maintains that top of the first-round ADP, that is indicative of a short-term value of 10+ points on the scale used here. But how do you value him for 2023 and beyond?
• In looking at the early 2022 redraft ADP, the biggest standout to me was how confident drafters are in the return to health of J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers. The two are being drafted as the RB16 and RB17, respectively. Right ahead of Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette and only one pick behind David Montgomery. For a pair of players coming off of major knee injuries, the risk remains high but the market seems willing to be on both players. As such, both have received solid bumps in terms of their overall trade value since the December update.
• In the case of Akers at least, the value rise is based on actual news. Akers was able to make an incredibly quick return to the Rams roster, which seems to bode well for his 2022 outlook. Again, this is a high-risk gamble to trade for or draft Akers at his current valuation. However, the upside is also extremely clear. The Rams have a great offense, Akers looked like a big-time talent in 2020, and does not turn 23-years old until June.
• Leonard Fournette feels a little bit undervalued in dynasty right now. Yes, he is a free agent after the season. He will turn 27-years old later this month, so he is not a spring chicken. But the value gap between him and some other running backs of a similar age (like Austin Ekeler) that you see nearly everywhere does not make too much sense given their similar levels of production this year.
• Javonte Williams is a player whose value will be heavily influenced by the roster moves the Broncos are able to make this season. If Aaron Rodgers forces his way out of Green Bay and lands with Denver, we could see the trade value of Williams rocket up into the Top 5 overall regardless of position.

Wide Receiver

Position Notes

• It has been rare for one team to boast two Top 12 dynasty wide receivers, but the Bengals duo of JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins are deserving of the high marks. Their youth and high levels of production make them two of the most valuable dynasty pass catchers in the league. It is worth remembering that Higgins is still younger than many of the rookie wide receivers, including both DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
• There could be some big dynasty value swings based upon how free agency plays out. It starts near the top with Davante Adams. Not only is he a free agent but the status of his quarterback is in doubt, as well. Adams with Aaron Rodgers would remain an elite fantasy wide receiver over the medium term. If either of them leaves Green Bay, it would have a real impact on Adams’ dynasty trade value. Similarly, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett could see their production suffer if Russell Wilson forces his way out of Seattle.
• Potential trades of Rodgers, Wilson, and Deshaun Watson also bring upside to wide receivers on quarterback-needy teams. We should add a slight premium to the current trade value of players like D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, and Jaylen Waddle based upon the possibility they get major quarterback upgrades this summer.

Tight End

Position Notes

• We are starting to get some more separation at the top. You can poke holes in the dynasty valuation cases of nearly every tight end out there. For some it is age. For example, Travis Kelce will be turning 33-years old next October. For some, it is a simple lack of consistent production. Dawson Knox is a Top 12 dynasty tight end but he also just gave you a big fat 0 if you started him in your Week 17 championship. The shaky resumes of so many of the top tight ends only serve to highlight how valuable the top few guys really are.
• Let’s start with the dynasty TE1. Kyle Pitts simply looks the part. The stats tell part of the story. He has racked up 1,018 receiving yards through 16 games. But it seems obvious he is just scratching the surface of what he could become. He will enter the 2022 regular season still just 21-years old. He is a first-round startup pick on my draft board regardless of the format.
• Mark Andrews has been a top player at the position for years but has really made the case for TE2 down the stretch of the 2021 season. Over the last four weeks, he has averaged 8.8 receptions for 116.3 yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game. When taking into consideration what he added to your lineup compared to replacement value at the position, he was truly one of the fantasy MVPs of the entire 2021 season. He is right in the middle of his prime years, turning 27-years old right around the start of the 2022 season.
• Cole Kmet has been one of those players who just finds his way onto nearly every one of my dynasty rosters despite my feeling like I have not gone out of the way to acquire him. Probably just a sign that my valuation method likes him more than the market at large. Time will tell whether or not he has been undervalued. He has two paths to true fantasy relevance. First, he simply continues to improve. He does not turn 23-years old for a few more months. Second, he is able to maintain his current market share in the Bears offense but the overall offensive pie gets bigger. Through 17 weeks, the Bears are dead last in passing yards (2,941) and have averaged less than 1.0 passing touchdowns per game.

2022 Rookie Picks

We will wait until next month to try to truly start the process of putting names to picks when we know for sure who will be in the draft and who is going back to school. For now, let’s just take another quick overview of the class from a bigger-picture perspective.

As noted in past months, the 2022 skill position class looks similar to the 2019 class (though there is no Kyler Murray or T.J. Hockenson). As a refresher, that class had just two running back taken in the first two rounds (Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders) and had a handful of solid third-round backs (David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson, Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, and Alexander Mattison). We are unlikely to have a first-round running back in 2022 but could see a half dozen backs taken on Day Two of the draft.

Compared to 2019, the 2022 wide receiver class is not quite as deep but could have similar talent at the top. That class was a mixed bag. Of the two first-rounders, NKeal Harry busted and Marquise Brown was a hit. The second round was also a mixed bag with Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, and DK Metcalf hitting while Parris Campbell, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Andy Isabella, and Mecole Hardman have disappointed. In 2022, it is again fair to expect six to ten wide receivers in the first two rounds.

The tight end and quarterback class both look substandard, though we will almost certainly see a couple of the quarterbacks generate some buzz over the next few months. With no Kyler Murray-level talents, the top guys are probably should be viewed similarly to how we viewed Dwayne Haskins and Daniel Jones entering 2019 rookie drafts.