The Dynasty Investor: 1Q Update

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

To recap the process, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then, you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.

This article will use these principles to find value in dynasty fantasy football. As we approach one-quarter of the way through the season, this article will focus on some Dynasty Investor strategies, the trades we've closed, and initiate some new trade ideas.

Key Points Up Front

• Play the market pendulum - prices tend to swing too hard
• Reiterate high conviction buys: Kyler Murray, Jonathan Taylor, and Kyle Pitts
• Downgraded from Buy to Hold (closed): Brandon Aiyuk and D'Andre Swift.
• Upgraded from Sell to Hold (closed): Joe Burrow, Dameon Pierce, Kenny Pickett, and Jonathan Mingo.
• Downgraded from Hold to Sell (initiation): Brock Purdy, Kyren Williams, and Tutu Atwell

Strategy

Successful fantasy football analysis involves understanding player quality, recognizing market dynamics, and leveraging the market pendulum for value creation. We spend a lot of time assessing player quality, but it's essential to differentiate between a "good player" and a "good investment." Talent alone doesn't guarantee a wise investment; the price relative to a player's fundamental value is what matters. The market exhibits a pendulum effect, swinging between euphoria and depression (boom/bust) due to irrational investor behavior. Opportunities for value creation arise when capitalizing on these extreme market fluctuations: buying low and selling high.

Closed Trades

We've had six favorable ratings changes since our last update. We downgraded Brandon Aiyuk and D'Andre Swift from Buy to Hold. We upgraded Joe Burrow, Dameon Pierce, Kenny Pickett, and Jonathan Mingo from Sell to Hold. As a reminder, the Buy rating means we are actively in the market trying to buy a player, and we want to be overweight that player in our portfolio of teams. A Sell rating means we are actively trying to sell the player, and we want to underweight him in our portfolio of teams. And a Hold rating is just that, not trying to buy or sell and just wanting to be about market weight in our portfolio of teams. Hold-rated players can still have upside/downside or be fairly valued. So, let's take a quick look at these rating changes.

Downgraded Brandon Aiyuk from Buy to Hold

Recommended buying Aiyuk at a KTC of 3956 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 5000. Aiyuk's KTC when we closed the trade was 5073, ~1.5% over the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 28% result or 1117 KTC added.

At the time of the buy recommendation, back in October of 2022, the trade advice was to sell Gabriel Davis to buy Brandon Aiyuk, a clear win.

Upgrading Joe Burrow from Sell to Hold

Recommended selling Burrow at a KTC of 9195 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 7700. Burrow's KTC when we closed the trade was 8168, within 6% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 11% result or 1027 KTC added.

At the time of the sell recommendation, in April of 2023, the trade advice was to sell Joe Burrow for Kyler Murray plus Bijan Robinson. We're unsure if that is a clear win, but you can see the premium you could have achieved. We also recommended that you could sell for three 1st-round picks or a different quarterback plus a couple of 1st-round picks; for instance, sell Joe Burrow = buy Deshaun Watson + an early 1st + a late 1st.

Upgrading Dameon Pierce from Sell to Hold

Recommended selling Pierce at a KTC of 4839 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 3600. Pierce's KTC when we closed the trade was 3786, within 5% of the revised target price. The trade was a favorable 22% result or 1053 KTC added.

Some of the trades recommended for Dameon Pierce over many articles are:

• Sell Dameon Pierce = buy Amon-Ra St. Brown.
• Sell Dameon Pierce + a late 2023 2nd = buy Kyle Pitts.
• Sell Dameon Pierce + a 2nd = buy Deshaun Watson.
• Sell Dameon Pierce = buy Diontae Johnson + 3rd.
• Sell Dameon Pierce = buy D'Andre Swift + 3rd.
• Sell Dameon Pierce = buy Alvin Kamara + 2nd.
• Sell Dameon Pierce = buy 2023 pick 1.10 or 2024 1st.
• Sell Dameon Pierce = buy DJ Moore.

Upgrading Kenny Pickett from Sell to Hold

Recommended selling Mingo at a KTC of 3225 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 2800. Mingo's KTC when we closed the trade was 2878, within 3% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 11% result or 347 KTC added.

Some of the trades recommended on Pickett were to add a 2nd to Pickett to get up to Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, or Kyler Murray.

Upgrading Jonathan Mingo from Sell to Hold

Recommended selling Mingo at a KTC of 3225 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 2800. Mingo's KTC when we closed the trade was 2878, within 3% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 11% result or 347 KTC added.

Some of the recommended trades were to sell Mingo = buy Marvin Mims. Also, sell Mingo = buy Trey Lance, which the Lance trade didn't work out.

Downgrading D'Andre Swift from Buy to Hold

Recommended buying Swift at a KTC of 3980 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 4800. Swift's KTC when we closed the trade was 4662, within 3% of my initial target price. The trade was a favorable 17% result or 682 KTC added.

At the time of the buy recommendation, the trade advice was to sell Dameon Pierce for Swift + a 3rd. Also, we recommended you could sell Ken Walker or Travis Etienne for Swift + a 2nd, which favors the Swift side currently on KTC, but it is debatable if those were prudent moves.

Dynasty Investor Top picks

Here are our current top picks, i.e., open recommendations. And following that, we'll go through some of the new initiations in more detail.

Top Buys

• Deshaun Watson (~45% upside)
• Kyler Murray (~50%)
• Trey Lance (100%+)
• Jonathan Taylor (25%)
• Alvin Kamara (~10%)
• A.J. Brown (~10%)
• DJ Moore (~25%)
• Treylon Burks (~60%)
• Diontae Johnson (~60%)
• JuJu Smith-Schuster (100%+)
• Rondale Moore (~75%)
• Brandin Cooks (~90%)
• David Bell (100%+)
• Kyle Pitts (~60%)
• Greg Dulcich (~45%)
• Noah Fant (~85%)

Top Sells

• Brock Purdy (~13% downside) DOWNGRADE
• Kyren Williams (~15%) DOWNGRADE
• Tutu Atwell (~15%) DOWNGRADE

Reiterate high conviction buys

The market pendulum has swung too far; these are our highest conviction ideas.

Panic, fear, depression, etc.

Nobody wants to buy these guys, and few recommend them here. The market is pricing in too much negativity and missing the upside from a risk/reward perspective.

I implore you, in Dynasty, BUY Kyle Pitts, Kyler Murray, & Jonathan Taylor pic.twitter.com/e4mLmTtuQP

— Jay Stein (@_JasonStein) September 20, 2023

Downgrade to Sell Brock Purdy

It's Brock Purdy's world, and we are all just living in it. He has twelve NFL wins to just one NFL playoff loss in the NFC Championship to start his career. He has started the 2023 season off going 81/112 for 1,019 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions. He is objectively good when looking at advanced QB metrics like expected points added per play (epa/p), completion percentage above expectation (cpoe), or time to throw (tt). It's remarkable for a guy who was picked with the last pick (262nd overall) of the 2022 NFL draft. You can't make a valid argument against the player yet, but you can argue that the market has moved too high and too fast on him. Purdy, playing at his best, is likely a backend QB1 finisher week in and week out. He doesn't possess the relative upside you'd get from a quarterback with tremendous rushing upside. From that perspective, given his valuation run, we'd recommend cashing in on the euphoria of the moment and selling.

Today, we are downgrading Bock Purdy to a Sell. His price target is ~4500 KTC, which is ~13% downside from current levels.

Trades: Brock Purdy = Kyler Murray. Brock Purdy = Deshaun Watson + 3rd.

Charting:

We removed the +/- 1 standard deviation lines on Purdy's chart because they didn't add value. After all, Purdy wasn't a starting QB, and then suddenly, he was. Regardless, Purdy has had quite the run, including this latest jump, as he has continued to play well in the 2023 season.

Downgrade to Sell Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams is off to a scorching start with everything going his way. He spent most of this offseason known as the pass-catching complement to the Cam Akers-led Rams backfield. Then, after one game, Akers and the Rams broke up, which led to the Rams trading Akers to the Vikings and leaving the primary running back role to Kyren Williams. And Williams took the role and has yet to look back. Some may have thought (me) that rookie 4th round pick Zach Evans would have been more involved at this point, but Williams is the guy for now. Because of this, Williams' price has jumped quite a bit, deservedly so; however, we think the pendulum has swung too far to the upside, and it would be best to cash in and bet on some upside elsewhere. To think before the season, you could take a guy you could collect off of waivers or in the final rounds of your drafts and turn it into a guy like Kyle Pitts or Zach Charbonnett, plus more, is absurd. Now, a word of caution: Kyren Williams is probably helping you win this year, so you would be forgoing points now to make a long-term upside call. That's not for everyone and every situation, but in dynasty, that's what we are looking to do.

Today, we are downgrading Kyren Williams to a Sell. His price target is ~3800 KTC, which is ~15% downside from current levels.

Trades: Kyren Williams = Kyle Pitts + 4th. Kyren Williams = DJ Moore. Kyren Williams = Zach Charbonnett + early 3rd. Kyren Williams + late 2nd = Jonathan Taylor.

Charting:

Look at that spike at the end of this chart. We are in a new pricing regime, but Williams' price has moved too fast.

Downgrade to Sell Tutu Atwell

All the rage in Los Angeles has been for Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. Tutu Atwell's price has also gone on a tear, just to a lesser extent. We just downgraded Williams, and now we are going to downgrade Atwell. Although Nacua's price has appreciated the most, and he would be a candidate to sell, we're not entirely convinced that Nacua isn't the real deal, and if that's the case, we can't recommend selling him. Rams long-time leading wide receiver Cooper Kupp should be coming back to the team shortly and will vacuum up a large portion of the offense, and Atwell may be the odd man out.

Today, we are downgrading Tutu Atwell to a Sell. His price target is ~2450 KTC, which is ~17% downside from current levels.

Trades: Tutu Atwell = 2nd. Tutu Atwell = Josh Downs. Tutu Atwell = Tank Bigsby. Tutu Atwell = Rondale Moore + 3rd. Tutu Atwell + 4th = Diontae Johnson.

Charting:

Similar to the Williams chart above, the pendulum has swung too far.

Track record

The total KTC added through The Dynasty Investor process is now up to 23,202 KTC.

Total KTC Value Added = 23,202

Thanks for reading! If you want to learn more about Dynasty Fantasy Football and the P/E ratio, please follow me on Twitter @_jasonstein and let me know your questions and how I can help.