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All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
KNOW YOUR ENEMIES
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Five games on the main slate have implied totals exceeding 50 points, which points to flat roster percentages at quarterback, as usual. Plenty of entrants will spend up to Patrick Mahomes II ($8,100) and Josh Allen ($8,000), but this week’s tight pricing makes it hard to field a balanced roster around them. Jalen Hurts ($6,900), Dak Prescott ($6,700), and Matthew Stafford ($7,000) are each significantly cheaper, performing well, and involved in potentially high-scoring games, making it more likely one of these quarterbacks will appear in common roster builds. Lower-priced players who might garner some attention include Sam Darnold ($6,000) and Taylor Heinicke ($5,900).
Flip the Build: It’s unlikely many of our opponents will choose to punt the position with a sub-$6K option, but pickings are slim unless you think Heinicke has a ceiling on the road in Atlanta. The greater leverage appears to be at the top salary tier, where Mahomes and Allen will put a squeeze on the popularity of Kyler Murray ($7,800) and Lamar Jackson ($7,500), each of whom has a solid chance to finish as the overall QB1 in any given week. Likewise, Russell Wilson ($7,100) should go somewhat overlooked in favor of Stafford, Hurts, and Prescott. In the $6K range, it might be a week to bet on Baker Mayfield’s ($6,200) ceiling. The Browns have a solid 26.75-point implied total at home against Minnesota’s struggling defense.
Alvin Kamara ($8,400) is back in the crowd’s good graces after receiving 24 touches and finding the end zone in Week 3. It feels safe to expect a fair amount of spending up at RB1, either to Kamara against the Giants, or Derrick Henry ($8,800), who faces the hapless Jets. Enough mid-range value exists at wide receiver and RB2 to make spending on a top-tier back possible. Antonio Gibson ($6,100), Chuba Hubbard ($5,900), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400), and whoever starts for the Rams this week are each priced below $6K and have quality on-paper matchups. Coming off an astounding 19 targets in Week 3, Najee Harris ($6,800) profiles as a logical RB1 in builds that spend more heavily at quarterback and wide receiver.
Flip the Build: While players like Kamara, Henry, and Harris should lead in popularity, running back roster percentages will be spread more evenly this week than in most. Since we don’t have clearly defined spending at the position in common builds, we should look for price-pivots such as Zack Moss ($5,300), who can be used for leverage against the popularity of Hubbard and Edwards-Helaire, as well as chalky Josh Allen stacks. Chase Edmonds ($5,500) is another interesting pivot in the CEH-Hubbard price tier. The scoring environment (O/U 55) and implied game script (Rams -4.5) both favor Edmonds on the road in LA. At the very least, use him as a contrarian run-back in Stafford-Kupp stacks.
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