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The Top 10 from Week 10

Matt Waldman's weekly film-and-fantasy review examines the stretch-run potential of A.J. Dillon, why Kirk Cousins' is a system QB1, the technique that aids Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase's fantasy consistency, and the fantasy value of knowing scheme players vs. matchup players.  

By Matt Waldman
November 15, 2021
The Top 10 from Week 10
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MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 10'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. A.J. Dillon's fantasy stock has been on the rise since last year's snow-covered masterpiece. With Aaron Jones hurt, and winter coming, Dillon could become one of the stretch-run studs of 2021.
  2. D.K. Metcalf, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, and Austin Ekeler had a case of technique-deficient drops this weekend that hurt their teams. The fact that three of these cases were Chargers players is an indication that the position coaches in L.A. have an easy developmental opportunity to address and chance to do something that most coaches don't in the NFL: provide a technique-focused developmental plan.
  3. Kirk Cousins' trust in his scheme and personnel is yielding fantasy dividends that make him a solid fantasy QB1 and an elite producer against easier match-ups like the Chargers.
  4. Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase have mastered a difficult technical requirement of the receiver position — one that will reduce the potential of them slumping as fantasy options — and it's likely no coincidence that they are recent alumni of LSU's football team.
  5. Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots offense routed Cleveland and Stevenson's work underscores important points about evaluating running backs for fantasy football.
  6. Be patient with Adrian Peterson. Based on the past two games, the film shows he's still the most dangerous and skilled runner but at 36 and lacking any training camp or preseason, it may take 2-3 weeks for him to be in true football shape.
  7. Marcus Johnson popped on the Titans' box score and while he may have value, he and Chris Godwin are examples of the difference between a "scheme player" and a "matchup player," and how that applies to fantasy management.
  8. There is rarely a singular play or even a set of plays that cost a team a victory. Still, it's notable that the Buccaneers lost its second straight game, and this week, Washington exposed Tampa's coverage scheme multiple times on third downs and gives us a clue about who to target against Tampa in the coming weeks.
  9. Thanks to his speed, route running, and blocking, Albert Okwuegbunam is one of my favorite holds or buy-lows in deep dynasty formats and an easy plug-in for points in re-draft formats where I need to make a desperation call for my starting lineups.
  10. Fresh Fish: The NFL (and much of college football) earns the award this week because of its stadium and field design that places ticket sales and media coverage ahead of player safety.
    • The Ravens' secondary has multiple cases of blown coverages this year and it cost them the Miami game late in Thursday night's contest.
    • Baker Mayfield can't win consistently when he's forced to be the lead talent in Cleveland's offense.
    • The Chargers' defense, as it has done almost weekly, gave up easy targets and opened the gate for good runs.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Fantasy Thanksgiving: AJ Dillon Could Be the Centerpiece

With Aaron Jones rehabbing a minor MCL injury for the next 1-2 weeks, Dillon is the Packers' supersized version of the Bear' Khalil Herbert, a back capable of delivering RB1 value for the length of Jones' absence. Unlike Herbert, Dillon has and will continue to have fantasy value as a low-end RB2 or high-end flex option in 2021. He may even see his value rise after Thanksgiving due to his fit in the Packers' offense and the onset of winter weather.

The root factor for all of this is what Dillon does so well as a running back. He has true power — the ability to drag tacklers even when he has little to no momentum. Few backs possess this strength. Dillon, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Jordan Howard, and Rhamondre Stevenson come immediately to mind. Depending on the angle of source of contact, Jamaal Williams, Javante Williams, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Mixon display flashes of this ability.

Where Dillon stands out, even among most of the names mentioned here, is that he knows how to maximize his power in short-yardage football.

Dillon is far more than a big body who forces gang tackles thanks to his pad level, body lean, and tree trunks for quads. He's an adept decision-maker with light and efficient feet in tight spaces. He also thinks one step ahead with his movements, showing that he's thinking about contingencies as the play develops.

These two runs are indicative of what the Packers valued from him as a future starter when the Packers have an out with Jones' contract at the end of 2022. He's a strong and agile player who can wear down opponents as a proven high-volume runner at Boston College and can do it during inclement weather.

Dillon is also an underrated passing-down option. Aaron Jones is a good pass blocker, but as I've mentioned repeatedly for the past three years, Dillon was one of the best pass protectors of his draft class. He's also a fine receiver with soft hands whose power and footwork make him a dangerous big-play threat in space.

The secret has been out on Dillon's re-draft value for weeks. After earning a bump in touches in Week 4, Dillon has been the No.19 runner in PPR leagues despite one sub-par game in Week 7 where he only earned 13 snaps against Washington. Expect Dillon to elevate his fantasy production to RB1 value in Minnesota and at home against the Rams during the next two weeks.

Even after the bye and the likely return of Jones, the Packers have home games against the Bears, Browns, and Vikings. Dillon will at least have fantasy RB2 value in these contests regardless of Jones' status.

2. The Clap: A Technical Deficiency Among WRs That limited DK Metcalf and Cost the Chargers Offense

Top wide receivers should bail out quarterbacks when they deliver targets that lack pinpoint placement. There are obviously limits to the truth of this statement but we're talking about reasonable situations. Such as the two drops D.K. Metcalf committed against the Packers or Mike Williams' drop on an important drive for the Chargers.

Both receivers have football's version of The Clap: Clapping the hands onto the ball because they aren't using the correct technique to receive the target. The Clap is what your toddler does when you're teaching them how to catch. They hold their hands out and try to clap their hands onto the ball. Usually, they mistime the motion, and either the ball flies between their hands and rebounds off their face or they strike the ball with one hand or arm and it flies violently away from them.

Although it seems like they are far apart in skill level, NFL wide receivers who have a case of The Clap see similar results as the kids who try to catch the ball with this method. Ask the Chargers Williams, Josh Palmer, and Austin Ekeler, who had key drops in meaningful moments against Vikings, stalling a drive and limiting the team to a field goal rather than a game-tying touchdown.

The Chargers have three receivers who failed to address the ball correctly in key moments this week and resulted in three drops. If the Chargers coaches were to devote any time to teaching technical skills to its skill players, something that's minimal in the NFL (see below), giving their players some tracking and catching exercises with specific target placements for them to work on before and after practice for the next several weeks would be helpful. Of course, this is unlikely in a league that has a much higher coaching priority on game plan and scheme.

A good example of a receiver not clapping on the ball? Adam Theilen (or Justin Jefferson).

Does this mean you should bail on Metcalf or Williams? No, but it is among the reasons why Williams is no longer performing as a top-five fantasy receiver and Metcalf has an elite frame but not a complete game. They are both good fantasy starters but the consistently elite fantasy players are also technical marvels.

3. The Details Behind KirK Cousins' Rise to Weekly Fantasy QB1 and Elite Matchup Value

Cousins has been an up-and-down fantasy quarterback over the years. He's the classic example of a high-functioning administrator of an offense who is on the cusp of having viable creativity to transcend his surroundings but not quite enough for his team to want to rely on it.

Give Cousins excellent personnel and his placement, toughness, and ability to trust his scheme and his weapons make him a capable starter with fantasy value — near-elite fantasy value against sub-par defenses like the Chargers, who may be tops on third downs but can't stop the run and give up big plays in the passing game.

Even with the Chargers as a fantasy patsy, it doesn't take away from the skills Cousins showed on Sunday. This is a capable starter at the height of his powers and working with some of the best skill-talents in the league.

The common themes underscoring these plays? Cousins' patience with play development, trust in his receivers to make plays, and his placement to give his talent the chance to win. Baker Mayfield is in a similar offense with similar talent but he isn't patient with play development, didn't trust his best receiver, and his placement has been inconsistent, at best.

It's one of the reasons why Cousins is a top-10 fantasy starter and Mayfield is still fighting for a second contract in Cleveland.

4. The Technique Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase Have That Aids Consistent Fantasy Production

Elite NFL receivers, Jefferson and Chase have the size, speed, route running, and hands of top fantasy options. An understated part of wide receiver play is tracking and positioning at the catch point, especially on the targets where the metrics-minded segment of our community connects the dots from testing (vertical leap, height, weight, speed) to college production and to the presumption that these players will win back-shoulder throws and other vertical targets.

Those dots don't connect as often as you'd think. Not unless those players understand how to track the ball. Tracking is not just about finding the ball in the air and looking it into one's hands. While in itself a vital skill on vertical routes, there's also an advanced part of tracking that requires receivers to have the right timing to act on the target: When to put the hands up without tipping off the defender, when to turn back to the target, and when to leap.

All three of these timing aspects of tracking contribute to a technique often called "the jump back" among college and pro wide receiver coaches. I profiled Chase's jump-back technique a few weeks ago in this column. It's no surprise that his former LSU teammate Jefferson has a similar refinement of skills.

This skill has fantasy implications. It's one of the differences between a contributor like Collin Johnson who has everything but the top-end speed and mastery of this technique to become an NFL starter. Johnson could be on par, if not better than Allen Lazard if he could time his leaps efficiently and productively.

It's a skill that also encourages trust throws, something that we like to say NFL quarterbacks deliver routinely but it's not as common as you'd think. We see it a lot more during the preseason with a variety of receivers but once the season begins, these plays are either targeted for specific stars or delivered out of desperation.

Receivers who earn these trust throws and convert them are quarterback-friendly regardless of the quarterback. They also earn targets regardless of the skill of the cornerback covering them. If you watch college football and you see a receiver who can track and position themselves just like Chase or Jefferson, that's a player you want to monitor.

5. Talent and Fit: Rhamondre Stevenson And a Lesson About Evaluating Rookie RB Prospects

Darrel Williams' 101-yard receiving game against the Raiders' lowly pass defense has the attention of a lot of fantasy GMs and writers. It was the top running back performance in PPR leagues and Williams made some excellent plays. Even so, I'm looking for sustainable running back production.

Williams is an excellent reserve-level talent who can operate as a starter when needed. For most who don't study the game in-depth, there will be little difference between Williams and the likes of Dillon or Stevenson because they see running backs in degrees of "slow" or "fast," and little in between. Sometimes, they don't even know how to judge speed, seeing Stevenson's breakaway preseason run and deeming him "good" because he looks "fast."

Talent and Fit are the two broad things you're seeking when evaluating rookies. They are rarely a one-or-the-other proposition. However, you'll see our community tell you that players are no good or on the decline because of scheme fit or schematic deficiencies with surrounding talent and they conflate it with the talent of the player.

Stevenson has starter talent and he has been a favorite of mine since seeing him perform at Oklahoma. There's a lot more that goes into starter talent than speed. And while there are teams like the 49ers who favor speed to a degree that it will gloss over other talents to get it, Stevenson's game is illustrative of a back who has the potential to deliver consistent and versatile production at a high volume in an offense that may ask him to deliver at his highest capacity of promise in 2023.

This will depend a lot on how much work Stevenson is willing to put into his game to hone it to a razor's edge. Presently, Stevenson's game offers enough for him to be seen somewhere between Williams and Dillon in terms of talent. All three are big, strong, nifty movers in tight space, and catch the ball well. Stevenson has the best hand-eye coordination of the three as a receiver and he's a notch up on Williams as a power back although may just be slightly below the rareified air of Dillon's tier.

Contact balance, power, footwork, and functional burst are more valuable things for running back play than speed, especially when paired efficiently with contextually strong decision-making. The Patriots (along with the Browns, 49ers, and Vikings) have one of the best run offenses in the NFL and they valued Stevenson for his ability to know when to set up blocks and when to create space on his own.

All of these runs are gap plays, which football analysts often say is a great fit for runners with great speed. Think Raheem Mostert and Chris Johnson zooming through tight creases and outrunning the angles for linebackers and safeties for breakaway runs. Their acceleration and top-end speed paired with great blocking from the line to the wide receivers and tight ends makes these plays epically dangerous.

However, gap plays also work for bigger backs with the footwork, strength, and contact balance to break tackles through the crease and tire out opponents with their style of play. Speedsters get to break arm tackles when they hit the creases decisively because they generate power based on momentum. While bigger backs do the same when they earn a long enough runway, they also punish defenders more often and tire them out by the game's end.

What the "speed touters" don't tell you, or simply don't understand, is that there is a baseline level of speed and quickness needed to produce in the NFL and that baseline number is A) lower than what you see around the NFL Combine and Pro Days and B) varies based on the size, quickness, footwork, strength, and style of the runner. Yes, just as is the case in real life, there are compensatory factors. IQ tests can't capture every type of intelligence and don't account for the wide variety of talents and capabilities that individuals have.

Stevenson can run zone and gap plays. He can catch and block at a high level. He has the burst to beat linebackers into the secondary in a lot of run designs. He's both a strong talent and a player whose fantasy value could rise or fall based on his scheme fit. He's also showing that he's gaining the trust of the team after his Week 1 fumble.

On that subject, it may prove to be a smart call for the Patriots to bench Stevenson immediately and make that lesson known before he earned a lot of production and developed a sense of self-importance that we all would gain in that situation. Benching him after that production and multiple fumbles might have made the move harder to deal with. Doing so early, and having the luxury to do so with Damien Williams in the fold, forced Stevenson to address this without all the ego that could have become involved.

The best approach for fantasy GMs with Stevenson is to honor the skills of Harris and consider Stevenson in the same light as Dillon — a starter talent who will contribute in a run-heavy system behind a back who will be around for this year and next. If Stevenson overtakes Harris, consider it a pleasant surprise. Otherwise, wait your turn.

6. The 'Say It Again' File: Be Patient with Adrian Peterson and Titans Backfield

As mentioned last week, Peterson is the only runner working on the Titans' depth chart who hasn't had a minicamp, training camp, or preseason game. He's also 36 years old and while I rail against some of the ageism in fantasy analysis, if you combine Peterson's age with factors like the lack of collisions that come with the specific environments of training camp, his lack of familiarity with the offensive verbiage and specific play designs, it doesn't take more than common sense to realize that the Titans are easing Peterson into a larger workload.

Considering that training camp is 4-5 weeks of contact and Peterson is entering Week 3 of his tenure with Tennessee expect him to earn more opportunities within the next 2-3 games. In the meantime, any concerns about DOnta Foreman should be minimal. Foreman is not the runner that the Rams and Saints were talking about before and after these games and there's more to it than the reporters would obviously ask them about Peterson.

While they aren't going to bad-mouth Peterson, they aren't going to note the same things I noted on film with the admiration that they displayed if it was just empty praise. Peterson is making do with difficult scenarios whereas Foreman has earned more enviable touches.

Foreman will have a role once Peterson gets up to speed. However, Peterson continues to show more skills, power, balance, and better footwork than Foreman despite the play calls going Foreman's way. With Houston, New England, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Miami ahead, Tennessee has an enviable schedule as long as its offensive line can stay healthy.

This is also worth noting: the Titans' new backs have been working with three tackles, and three guards in two weeks, which doesn't help with play timing, especially the type of plays given to Peterson.

If you added Peterson, remain patient.

7. The Fantasy Value of Understanding Scheme PLayers vs. Matchup Players: Marcus Johnson and Chris Godwin

Scheme Players are individuals who have the baseline skills to produce in the NFL if placed in an offense that asks them to execute plays where there's minimal effort to defeat an individual defender one-on-one. Matchup players are your starters who can win one-on-one.

The best players are matchup players who can consistently challenge top individual opponents. Think Jefferson and Chase at wide receiver, Nick Chubb and Christian McCaffery at running back, and Patrick Mahomes II at quarterback.

Marcus Johnson earned 100 yards against the Saints, A product of Grambling, Johnson executed the plays designed for him as the target. However, it's understandable (and easy) to think Johnson is a talent to know when the conclusion is a little more complicated.

Watch the type of plays where Johnson produced and you see that he's winning solely as the beneficiary of play designs — no press coverage, no contested catches, and no nuance to route running. It's not that he can't do these things as much as we haven't seen proof that the Titans believe he's reliable enough in these facets of the game to feature him this way.

In contrast, Chris Godwin is an example of a matchup player who, like all players gets schemed plays. Currently playing with an orthotic due to a foot injury that could limit him or deteriorate as the season unfolds, consult Jene Bramel's excellent work to see if this is the case, Godwin earned a bulk of his touches as a scheme player this weekend.

Even when functionally healthy but not completely healthy, Godwin can deliver on schemed plays. We also know that Godwin is a strong matchup player.

Think of matchup players are your RB and WR 1-2s and scheme players as your flex plays. Johnson's role as a flex-play has potential, but remember that scheme players are reliant on the game plan. Julio Jones returns in Week 14 so the Texans and Patriots are the two teams where Johnson could continue to thrive. Houston's tackling and coverage are mistake-ridden, so this is a good week for Johnson's prospects.

The Patriots are more disciplined and they vary their coverages well enough to trick quarterbacks and receivers, which means either the Patriots will prioritize Johnson lower and give up some of those plays while guarding against other Titans or Johnson will have to prove he has more match-up player tendencies when it comes to being on the same page with coverages as Ryan Tannehill.

Next week is safe, the week after is not, and the week after that is a bye week before Jones might return to the lineup.

8. The Exploitable Fantasy Hole in Tampa Bay's Defense

Tampa has lost two in a row and its defense is part of the problem. They have strong edge rushers and two big tackles who can collapse the pocket. They also have two excellent A-gap blitzers in linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White. Tampa Bay uses its linebackers and safeties to blitz on early downs and then drop and cover while only rushing four defenders on pass-only down and distance situations.

This works well when the defensive front earns pressure in third and long but recently, the opposition has exploited the linebackers' deep drops into the flats and sustained scoring drives as a result. This was one of the major factors in the outcome of Washington's victory.

And as these plays aided successful drives, it was the Buccaneers' stop in a similar situation that led to the Buccaneers closing the game to four points.

Who are the players that earn targets in the spaces between the coverage of linebackers for the opponents on the Buccanneers' schedule:

*Injury may be a factor.

The players in bold are options I'd consider to have better-than-average weeks than what we've seen from them when they face Tampa.

9. Quick Spotlight on Broncos TE Albert Okwuegbunam

Noah Fant is a tight end with a matchup player's athletic ability but a scheme player's skill set. You don't see him targeted in one-on-one scenarios like Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or Kyle Pitts. However, give him plays in space like Marcus Johnson earned and he can flip the field with his speed.

So can Okwuegbunam, even coming off an ACL tear, he can motor.

Unlike Fant, Okwuegbunam excels as a matchup play on contested red-zone targets.

He's also the superior blocker to Fant in terms of the range of defenders he successfully handles and therefore, the assignments he draws in the running game.

Fant's speed is an asset because it poses a danger for safeties and linebackers that crowd the line too tight when they are expecting the potential of a run or play-action pass. Still, I am expecting Okwuegbunam to earn a starting role in the NFL in 2-3 years and it wouldn't surprise me if his production isn't far behind Fants, if not better, in any given year — especially in the red zone.

10. FRESH FISH: WEEK 10

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Decade: The NFL

I mention this every year: The NFL doesn't create enough room between the end line and the stadium wall. The runway is too short and the surface changes in grade, texture, hardness, and grip. This is a safety concern for players running at full speed in a contact sport.

Sammy Watkins lost track of a post route earlier in the game and it's likely he was concerned about the tight gap between the end line and the wall. We may all romanticize the lack of business decisions that many players push aside to make a play, but a lot of that romanticization is fool-hardy and hypocritical. The money "lost" to get rid of 4-6 rows on each red zone side and change photographer access is not going to run the league.

It may also save careers or could have prevented an impending accident that inalterably changes the life of a young player for the worse. I'm hoping I'm wrong about that last sentence. I'm afraid someday I won't be and making the change will be too late for him.

Special of the Week: The Ravens Secondary

If you watch Baltimore for more than a week or two, you learn fast that this team has a lot of blown coverages. The safety play has either failed to cover or given directions to corners that turned out to be inaccurate decisions. So, it was an easy call on Twitter to say what to watch out for after Lamar Jackson brought the Ravens back against the Dolphins.

Here's the rest of the list.

  • The Chargers' defense is as friendly of a unit as I've seen of the teams in the league with good offenses.
  • Baker Mayfield: With his pocket issues, decision-making, and accuracy issues, he's a gilded butterfly of a starting quarterback.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Tags:QBRBTEWRPoint-per-receptionStrategyDenver BroncosGreen Bay PackersMinnesota VikingsNew England PatriotsSan Diego ChargersTampa Bay BuccaneersTennessee TitansWashington Redskins
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