Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane made the cover for a reason. Miami’s offense is the clear centerpiece of the Week 13 Main Slate, and the Dolphins game stands out as the best spot on the board. More and more, I find myself focusing on simply playing the best options with less concern about hunting for overlooked pivots. The chalk is hitting at a high rate this season. Week 12 was a perfect reminder. Anyone who locked in the core cash-game pieces like Jahmyr Gibbs, Emanuel Wilson, Michael Wilson, and Wan'Dale Robinson was well on the way to a big score. The cash line in double-ups pushed into the 190s, which would have been good enough for a top five percent finish in GPPs.

Game theory and percent rostered still matter in tournaments. You need some leverage to separate from the field. But the main goal is to put up a huge number. As industry-wide projections improve, it is harder to find bad chalk. The sharper approach is to identify which popular plays deserve to be the anchors, then pair them with a few lower-rostered options who can win a week with one spike game.

Weather
After a stretch of mild conditions, Week 13 brings us back to monitoring forecasts. The theme of the slate is cold and wet weather. Six of the ten games are tracking for rain with temperatures below 50 degrees. The roughest spot is San Francisco at Cleveland, where early forecasts call for steady winds around 20 miles per hour, gusts in the mid-30s, and snow. Games in Tennessee, Carolina, New York, Seattle, and Pittsburgh are also forecasted to be cold with a chance of rain.

We will first look at the matchups from both a team and positional angle, focusing on the backfield outlooks and the passing games with the best chances to produce tournament-winning scores. Then we will go position by position, highlighting the top plays. Each section will include Good Chalk, which covers the strong plays worth using even at high ownership, and Low-Owned Targets, which highlight players who can separate your lineup from the field.

Positional Defense and Matchups Overview

My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest matchups, where teams are expected to score below their 2025 average.

It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense-versus-position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.

Best Matchups

Here are the teams on the Week 13 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.

Miami
As noted in the introduction, this spot jumps off the page as one of the best on the slate. Even though the Saints have a solid defense, it is still a strong setup for Miami. The Saints' offense was struggling before injuries hit, which should give the Dolphins consistent field position and plenty of chances to control time of possession. Miami’s 24.0 team total is one of the highest on the slate and represents a 17 percent boost over their season average. Achane and Waddle both project as good chalk.

Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers' offense was a mess in the Week 11 loss to Jacksonville and clearly felt the absence of both starting offensive tackles. Sportsbooks seem confident that the bye week and a favorable matchup against the Raiders will help the unit bounce back. It is an especially appealing spot for Kimani Vidal, since the Raiders allow 1.1 points per game above expectation to running backs.

Tennessee
The Titans' offense has shown real improvement since the bye and should not be ignored, even with a modest 17.8-point team total. Cam Ward set a career high with 42 pass attempts in last week’s competitive loss to Seattle. His rushing ability has also come alive. Through the first 10 weeks, he had 46 rushing yards with no scores, but over the last two games, he has 70 yards and a touchdown. His growing dual-threat role raises his ceiling and lifts the floor for the entire Tennessee offense.

Worst Matchups

Here are the teams on the Week 13 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.

Los Angeles Rams
The Rams offense has been rolling, and the -1 % Week 13 boost is not a significant concern. Carolina’s defense has taken a real step forward and has been especially tough against the pass. This could be a solid spot for Kyren Williams, though his workload has been split with Blake Corum, and his goal-line opportunities have dipped because Sean McVay keeps dialing up fades to Davante Adams near the end zone.

Jacksonville
The Jaguars have a supportive matchup on the ground against Tennessee. One of my misses last week was expecting Bhayshul Tuten to push past Travis Etienne Jr. Instead, Etienne handled 19 opportunities in the overtime win over Arizona, posted 116 total yards, and scored. He should be in another good spot against a Tennessee defense that gives up 4.0 points per game above expectation to opposing running backs.

Buffalo
Josh Allen struggled last week against one of the league’s best defenses, but he should rebound here against a Steelers secondary that has given up production through the air. The -14 % scoring boost is concerning, yet Allen is close to matchup-proof, and Buffalo may have to lean more on the passing game against a disciplined run defense.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford
Stafford has been on an incredible run. Over his last eight games, he has thrown for 2,091 yards with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions. That comes out to 261.4 passing yards and 3.1 touchdowns per game, and he has topped three passing scores in six of those eight outings. He is operating with two elite receivers, a red-hot play caller, and an aggressive approach near the goal line. The Rams have the highest team total on the slate at 27.0.

C.J. Stroud
Stroud has a favorable matchup against the Colts and has thrown 21 touchdowns to just four interceptions in 13 career starts against divisional opponents. Davis Mills played well and won three straight while Stroud was out, which raises the pressure but may also have given Stroud a helpful reset. At $6800, he is one of the safer options on the slate and benefits from playing indoors with the roof closed. In four career meetings with Indianapolis, he has averaged 291.8 passing yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.

Jacoby Brissett
Brissett has thrown 11 touchdowns in six starts and has piled up 769 passing yards over the last two weeks. He has at least 19 FanDuel points in every start. Through six games, he is averaging 314.5 passing yards and 2.0 total touchdowns. The matchup sets up well against a Buccaneers defense allowing 2.0 points per game above expectation to opposing quarterbacks.

Tyrod Taylor
Taylor offers a workable combination of floor and upside at a bargain price. He has 19 carries for 99 yards in roughly three games of action and has averaged 209.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdown passes in his two starts. Nothing in the profile is flashy, but he feels overdue for a rushing touchdown, and one goal-line run could push him past a 3X return. Atlanta has allowed 240 or more passing yards in four straight games, including a 448-yard, three-touchdown outing by Bryce Young two weeks ago.

Running Back

De’Von Achane
Achane has averaged 18.8 carries and 7.0 targets over his last four games and has at least five catches in every one of them. His passing-game usage gives him one of the safest floors on the slate. He also has back-to-back games with at least 20 carries and 120 rushing yards. With Miami favored by 5.5 at home, the game script should set up another heavy workload. As noted in the introduction, fading elite chalk has rarely paid off this season. Achane is in a spot similar to Jahmyr Gibbs' last week and could be another player you simply need in your lineup.

Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey handled 31 touches on Monday night and was headed for a massive performance before a string of turnovers stalled the offense. The matchup in Cleveland is as tough as it gets, but his price has come down. He is averaging 26.7 opportunities per game this season, and that level of volume at a sub-$9,000 salary remains appealing regardless of opponent.

Breece Hall
Hall totaled 119 yards on 20 touches against a strong Baltimore defense last week. His passing-game involvement has been noticeably higher whenever Justin Fields has been out. In Tyrod Taylor’s two starts, Hall has eight catches for 106 yards on 10 targets. Atlanta gives up 1.6 points per game above expectation to running backs. Hall profiles as the top play in the $7K range.

Ashton Jeanty
Jeanty averaged only 12.2 carries per game over the past five weeks, which factored into the move away from Chip Kelly. Pete Carroll has emphasized a return to the run, and new coordinator Greg Olson is expected to put Jeanty at the center of that plan. He has handled 93 percent of the Raiders’ carries over the last four games and now faces a Chargers defense giving up 92.3 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.

Ken Walker III
Walker posted 101 yards on a season-high 63 percent snap share last week, playing exactly twice as many snaps as Zach Charbonnet. That usage matches recent comments from Mike McDonald and Klint Kubiak about Walker earning more work as both a runner and receiver. Seattle has a 26.5-point team total and is a heavy home favorite against Minnesota. If undrafted rookie Max Brosmer struggles, the Seahawks could lean even more on the ground game.

Wide Receiver

Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba has been one of the league’s most productive receivers, averaging 119.4 yards per game. He has topped 100 yards in eight of eleven games. Minnesota has been tough on wide receivers overall, but they have allowed big games to versatile inside and outside players such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ladd McConkey, DK Metcalf, and A.J. Brown.

Chris Olave
Monitor Olave’s health heading into Sunday. He returned to practice on Friday after missing time early in the week with back spasms. If he is good to go, this is a strong setup. In Tyler Shough’s two starts, Olave has averaged 7.0 catches for 87 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 10.5 targets. Miami has been steady against opposing wideouts, but the volume should be substantial. Rashid Shaheed was traded, Alvin Kamara is out, and Brandin Cooks was released, which funnels even more targets toward Olave.

Jaylen Waddle
Waddle has averaged 4.8 catches for 79.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns over his last four games. The Saints defense has been solid, but has given up big plays to speedy perimeter receivers. Darnell Mooney had his best outing of the season against this secondary last week with 74 yards and a touchdown. Miami is the one team on the slate with both a 15 percent scoring boost and a team total above 20. Getting the WR1 in this offense at $7,000 is a strong value.

Nico Collins
Collins has dominated this matchup recently. In his last three games against Indianapolis, he has 22 catches for 458 yards and two touchdowns, topping 100 yards in all three. He has 10 or more targets in four of his last five games. The addition of Sauce Gardner makes this Colts defense different, but recent production from opposing WR1s like Drake London and Rashee Rice shows that big games are still possible. At his salary, Collins is a strong large-field tournament play.

Khalil Shakir
If Pittsburgh sells out to slow down James Cook, Buffalo will need to push the ball through the air. Shakir posted a season-high eight catches for 110 yards last week and has at least six receptions in four of his last five games. Buffalo is still searching for consistent answers at wide receiver, and Shakir has settled in as the most reliable option. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Steelers defense that allowed 64 yards and two touchdowns to DJ Moore last week.

Tight End

Trey McBride
McBride is averaging 8.5 catches for 87 yards and 1.0 touchdowns on 11.2 targets in Jacoby Brissett’s six starts. As noted in the Footballguys passing matchup article, the Buccaneers rank 24th in pressure rate, which leads to blitzes that fail to get home and create large windows in the intermediate areas. McBride thrives in that part of the field. Tampa Bay is a clear pass funnel and has allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the league.

Brock Bowers
Since returning from injury in Week 9, Bowers has averaged 6.5 catches for 71.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 9.3 targets. He could see even more involvement with the change at offensive coordinator. Greg Olson should make a point of featuring his best weapon. Bowers has at least eight targets in each of his three career games against the Chargers and should remain heavily involved.

Brenton Strange
Strange returned last week after a six-week absence and immediately led the team with 93 receiving yards. He is averaging 5.7 catches and 66.3 yards in his last three full games. Even with a relatively tough matchup against Tennessee, he is a strong pay-down option.