In Week 4, we liked the Jacksonville at Cincinnati, Detroit at Carolina, Indianapolis vs. Washington in London, Dallas at Houston, and Kansas City at Las Vegas. Our choices produced 39, 58, 43, 64, and 57 points -- 52.2 points per game. So despite Jacksonville-Cincinnati disappointing, we're sitting almost exactly where we were the previous two weeks: 52.4 in Week 2, 52.0 in Week 3, and 52.2 in Week 4.
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Now, Week 5 is here. We've assembled five more matchups that give us both automatic starts capable of hitting their ceilings and players whose lineup value gets pushed upward based on the opponent. Here are the games that stand out this week.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
This is our No. 1 target this week. The total sits around 54.5, with Detroit favored by 4.5. Arizona has allowed more than 31 points in three straight games, while Detroit's defensive problems give the Cardinals a legitimate chance to help the scoring environment.
Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta are lineup locks. Jameson Williams, coming off a WR19 performance in Carolina, is also in the conversation.
But Arizona may offer the better leverage. Jacoby Brissett opened the week as QB5 on the Footballguys Week 5 projections, and Detroit has been the league's most generous fantasy matchup for quarterbacks. Trey McBride gets a great setup too: Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends. They've also allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, putting Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. in play. Jeremiyah Love remains a high-end RB2 candidate despite a tougher matchup for runners.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
While it also has a 54.5-point over/under, this week's Monday-night game may have the week's highest ceiling, with the Rams carrying an implied total approaching 29 and Buffalo around 26.
Josh Allen and James Cook III are automatic for Buffalo. DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir become matchup plays to varying degrees in a game that should force Buffalo to keep scoring. Coleman's ceiling will rise considerably if Moore, dealing with an injured shoulder, is unable to play.
On the other side, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Davante Adams are exactly the kind of concentrated fantasy core we want in this feature. Stafford, with a QB5 Footballguys projection, and Williams, with his RB4 projection, are the matchup leverage plays here.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
With an anticipated total of 47.5 points and Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite, there's plenty to like here.
Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, and George Kittle all sit firmly in the top 10s at their positions. Mike Evans, who delivered a WR27 performance last week despite an injured rib, and Deebo Samuel Sr. remain viable starting options behind them.
Seattle's defense has been tougher than our other target defenses, so this isn't about mindlessly upgrading every 49er because of the point total. It's about the consistent production of an offense tied with Buffalo for the league lead with 16 offensive touchdowns. Purdy, currently QB2, has been virtually unstoppable even with attrition at wideout.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Seattle's centerpiece and among the highest-projected players on the Week 5 slate, with a Footballguys WR1 overall projection. Sam Darnold gets more interesting if San Francisco forces Seattle into sustained aggression, while Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner, and Emanuel Wilson provide lower-tier decisions.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
This one has a lower total (43.5), but we like it for the same reason we liked Indianapolis-Washington last week: Washington's positional vulnerabilities create lineup leverage.
The Commanders have been among the league's most favorable opponents for quarterbacks (third-most fantasy points allowed), wide receivers (fourth-most), and tight ends (fifth-most). That makes the Giants' passing game interesting even if we don't love the offense in isolation. Jameis Winston, Malik Nabers, and Isaiah Likely deserve upgrades because of Washington, not because we've suddenly fallen in love with the Giants.
On the Washington side, Terry McLaurin, assuming he returns from his hamstring injury, and Stefon Diggs remain attractive, especially if Jayden Daniels returns as expected. And if he doesn't? Athan Kaliakmanis, who replaced an injured Marcus Mariota in London last Sunday, attempted six passes of 35-plus air yards, the most by any quarterback in a game since Russell Wilson in 2021.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
This is the most conditional contest of our five. The game opened considerably higher but has already dropped to 45.5, almost certainly reflecting the uncertainty surrounding Lamar Jackson's injured ankle.
Baltimore says the injury isn't expected to be extremely long-term, but Jackson's Week 5 status remains unresolved. If he can't play, Tyler Huntley would be the likely starter. If Jackson plays, this immediately becomes more appealing. Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman give Baltimore plenty of fantasy firepower.
Even if it's Huntley under center, Henry remains a lineup lock. So does Flowers, who is WR9 on the season despite playing only three games and seeing limited snaps in two others.
The current spread, with Baltimore at -2.5 points, suggests a competitive game rather than a runaway.
Atlanta supplies Bijan Robinson and Drake London, both well inside the top 10s at their respective positions. Michael Penix Jr. and Kyle Pitts Sr. remain outside starting territory at their positions, but both are viable streaming options with upside.
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