Digging into the Week 6 main slate brings a strong sense of déjà vu. The top plays look almost identical to last week. Many of the same players are projected to be popular again, and the 10-game slate feels similarly constructed in terms of offensive environments and defensive matchups we want to attack. While the teams and players we want to target haven’t changed much, the pricing landscape has shifted dramatically.
Last week’s slate was defined by running back injuries that created major value. Players like Rico Dowdle, Rachaad White, and Michael Carter stepped into starting roles at bargain prices. Those same backs are still starting this week, and two of them once again rank near the top of the point-per-dollar projections (Dowdle and White). The difference is that their prices have jumped significantly. Dowdle was $4,900 last week and is now $6,600. White rose from $5,200 to $6,800. Those $1,700 and $1,600 increases completely change the slate’s dynamics. We have gone from extreme running back value in Week 5 to an extreme lack of it in Week 6. It is difficult to justify rostering any back below $6,000, and few lineups will include backs priced below Dowdle at $6,600.
Not only have the mid-tier backs been priced up, but the elite players have also seen steady increases. Jonathan Taylor was easy to fit in last week at $9,500, but his $10,200 tag this week is much tougher to work around given the lack of value elsewhere. Puka Nacua ($9,800) and Christian McCaffrey ($9,500) are also expensive, forcing us to be much more creative with roster construction.
Weather Note
The weather has not been much of an issue so far this season, but Week 6 brings a few situations to keep an eye on. Rain is in the forecast for six of the ten games, though none look truly concerning at this point. The game most likely to be affected is in Baltimore, where rain combined with sustained winds around 15 mph could have a modest impact on both passing attacks. There’s no reason to make major adjustments yet, but it will be important to recheck the forecasts on Sunday morning before lock and make any last-minute tweaks if conditions worsen.
Matchups and Slate Overview
One way to identify potential value is by comparing each team’s implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the best matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
With five weeks of data behind us, we can also start to draw firmer conclusions about which defenses are weakest against each position. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents’ typical production. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points above expectation. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents’ norms. Those positional defense metrics are included in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 6 expected to outperform versus their 2025 scoring average.
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Raiders offense: This is a great spot for Ashton Jeanty, as the Raiders get a 39% scoring boost in Week 6. The Titans’ biggest defensive weakness has been against opposing running backs.
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Panthers offense: Carolina only gets a 14% scoring boost this week, but the matchups against Dallas are excellent for Bryce Young, Rico Dowdle, and the Panthers’ wide receivers.
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Packers offense: Green Bay has a slate-high implied total and strong matchups across the board against a weak Cincinnati defense.
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Rams offense: The Rams get a modest 5% scoring boost against a Ravens defense that has struggled against both the run and the pass. The boost might have been higher if not for mild weather concerns.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 6 expected to underperform versus their 2025 scoring average.
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Colts offense: Sportsbooks are expecting some regression from the high-scoring Colts, but this is still a favorable spot for the offense overall and for Jonathan Taylor in particular.
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Cowboys offense: The Panthers’ defense has been more competitive than expected, but they continue to struggle against tight ends, which sets up well for Jake Ferguson.
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Buccaneers offense: It is tough to bet against Emeka Egbuka given his steady target volume, but this matchup could lead to a quieter week than usual.
Quarterback
One of the main reasons the Week 6 slate feels so similar to Week 5 is the lack of elite dual-threat quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is still out, and Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes II, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams are all off the main slate. Once again, it does not look like we will need 30-plus points from our quarterback to win a tournament. With tight pricing and few realistic chances of a single quarterback breaking the slate, my focus this week is on saving salary and targeting options priced under $8,000.
Drake Maye
Can Maye build on the momentum from his impressive Sunday night win over Buffalo? The fantasy numbers (12.1 FanDuel points) didn’t pop, but his late-game poise in a tough environment was another sign of growth in what’s been a breakout sophomore season. The Saints haven’t allowed a massive fantasy outing to any quarterback this year, but every passer they’ve faced has thrown at least two touchdowns. They’ve also surrendered 100 rushing yards and a rushing score to quarterbacks over the past two weeks. Maye stacked with Stefon Diggs and a Saints wide receiver bring back will be a popular tournament build, but it looks strong enough on paper to play it despite the chalkiness.
Trevor Lawrence
Under Liam Coen last season, Baker Mayfield posted career highs in rushing yards, leading many to believe Coen could tap into Trevor Lawrence’s own rushing upside. Through the first four weeks, that hadn’t materialized. Lawrence averaged just 8 rushing yards per game and looked like a pure pocket passer. That changed on Monday night, when he erupted for 54 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against Kansas City. That breakout isn’t fully reflected in his Week 6 salary, making him an appealing option on a slate short on true dual-threat quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford
There are some weather concerns in this matchup, but if conditions hold up, this is one of the safest quarterback spots on the slate. Stafford has thrown for more than 375 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back games. He now faces a Ravens defense that’s been hit hard by injuries and has given up four passing touchdowns in consecutive weeks. He may not draw as much attention as he deserves due to the perception that his ceiling is limited and lingering respect for the Ravens’ defense based on reputation rather than current form. Stack him one or both of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
Sam Darnold
Darnold has settled in nicely and continues to improve each week for Seattle. He threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns last week in a pass-heavy shootout against Tampa Bay, and a similar game script could unfold in Jacksonville. While Trevor Lawrence will likely be the more popular quarterback in this matchup, Darnold is every bit as strong a play given his lower projected roster percentage. The Jaguars will be without one of their top pass rushers and are adjusting in the secondary after replacing Tyson Campbell with Greg Newsome II. If you play him, you likely want to stack him with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs
This is an ideal spot for Jacobs. Cincinnati is allowing 30.7 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, the most in the league, and Green Bay enters as a massive 14.5-point home favorite. After limited receiving work early in the season, Jacobs has averaged 4.5 catches for 57.5 yards on 6.5 targets over his last two games. With the Bengals giving up 8.3 yards per target to running backs, he should remain heavily involved in the passing game. Jacobs is averaging 20 carries per game and has scored in 12 of his last 13 outings. While he isn’t cheap, he’s still a value compared to Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey on a slate where salary is especially tight.
Ashton Jeanty
Jeanty has averaged 132 total yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game over the last two weeks. His receiving role has expanded with Brock Bowers sidelined, as he’s averaged 3.5 catches for 29.5 yards and a touchdown on 4.5 targets per game during that span. While the Raiders’ offense has struggled and the offensive line remains a concern, the matchup is outstanding against a Titans defense that has allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing running backs in three straight games.
Rachaad White
White took on a true workhorse role last week with Bucky Irving sidelined, playing 80% of the snaps and handling three carries inside the 10-yard line, converting two for touchdowns. His biggest strength remains his pass-catching ability, and the 49ers just allowed Kyren Williams to post an 8-66-2 receiving line against them. While White’s salary has risen sharply since last week, his 2.44 PPG projection still ranks among the highest on the slate.
Rico Dowdle
With Chuba Hubbard out, Dowdle erupted for 234 total yards and a touchdown in last week’s comeback win over Miami. Hubbard remains sidelined, and Dowdle now draws an even better matchup against a struggling Cowboys defense. The revenge angle adds extra motivation after Dallas chose not to re-sign him in free agency. Dowdle owns the strongest PPD projection of any non-quarterback on the slate and is the cheapest running back projected for a true workhorse role.
Kyren Williams
Williams draws a favorable matchup against a banged-up Ravens defense that has allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game (28.2) to opposing running backs. Through the first four weeks, he averaged just under 75% of the snaps and 2.8 targets per game, but his workload spiked in Week 5. He played 91% of the snaps and saw 10 targets, converting them into an 8-66-2 receiving line. With the Rams entering as 7.5-point road favorites and windy conditions in the forecast, a more run-heavy approach could work in Williams’ favor.
Quinshon Judkins
Since taking over as Cleveland’s lead back in Week 3, Judkins leads the NFL in carries (62) and has averaged 17.3 FanDuel points per game. While Pittsburgh isn’t an ideal matchup, the Steelers have allowed slightly more fantasy production to running backs than expected. On a slate with few affordable options locked into heavy workloads, Judkins stands out as one of the best low-cost plays with a realistic path to 20 or more touches.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua
Nacua’s salary has climbed to $9,800, which makes him tough to fit without injury-related value opening up elsewhere. Even so, he remains worth prioritizing. His lowest fantasy output of the season was 19.5 FanDuel points in Week 1, underscoring how consistent he’s been. Nacua has topped 100 yards in three of five games and is averaging 117.6 receiving yards per game, keeping him firmly in play for both cash games and tournaments. Baltimore has allowed 9.0 FanDuel points per game over expectation to opposing wide receivers, the second-worst mark in the league.
Tetairoa McMillan
The Cowboys are allowing 14.1 FanDuel points per game above expectation to opposing wide receivers, the worst mark in the league by a wide margin. For context, Baltimore ranks second-worst at 9.0, and no other team is above 5.5. McMillan has seen at least eight targets in every game, continues to flash explosive ability, and is overdue for his first NFL touchdown. This is an excellent price for a high-end young talent in a dream matchup, and I’m comfortable eating the chalk here.
Stefon Diggs
The matchup isn’t ideal, but Diggs is simply underpriced after posting back-to-back 100-yard games. His slow start was understandable as he worked his way back from knee surgery, but he now looks fully healthy and in rhythm. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged 8 catches for 123.5 yards per game and is once again producing like a top-tier receiver. Given his form and ceiling, Diggs could easily be priced above $7,000 in the near future. He stands out as one of the best value plays in a salary range lacking proven upside.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba is averaging 106.8 yards per game on an impressive 12.4 yards per target with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Going back to the midpoint of last season, he’s averaged 91.1 yards per game over his last 15 and has topped 70 yards in 12 of those 14 contests. His floor is remarkably high. The Jaguars are allowing 158.6 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers, the 10th-most in the league. While this rates as only the 11th-best matchup overall, it still carries sneaky shootout potential, and I’m comfortable continuing to ride the hot hand.
Marvin Harrison Jr..
Harrison rebounded from a rough start in Week 4 with a strong second half, finishing with 66 yards and a touchdown, then followed it up with a season-high 98 yards in Week 5. He appears to be finding his rhythm, and the upward trend in his usage and production is encouraging. With low projected ownership and a mid-range salary, Harrison is an appealing tournament play who offers breakout potential at a discount.
Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman remains one of the most reliable point-per-dollar plays at wide receiver. Aside from a quiet game against Patrick Surtain II and the Broncos, he’s scored at least 12.4 FanDuel points in every contest this season. On a slate where value is scarce, Pittman’s consistency and high floor make him stand out in the low-$6K range.
Travis Hunter
Hunter’s efficiency has surged over the past three games, averaging 12.7 yards per target even as his volume has dropped to just 3.3 targets per game. He showed signs of a breakout on Monday night against Kansas City, playing a season-high 67% of the snaps and setting a career best with 64 receiving yards. His ability to create after the catch and win contested balls downfield gives him multiple paths to production, especially if his target share climbs. With Seattle stout against the run but vulnerable through the air, this matchup sets up well for Hunter to build on his recent momentum.
Tight End
Tucker Kraft
Kraft was tackled just short of the end zone twice in Week 4, or he’d be averaging a touchdown per game this season. After playing through an injury earlier in the year, he should be back to full strength coming off the Week 5 bye. He now faces a Bengals defense allowing an NFL-high 15.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends and 4.2 points per game above expectation, the second-worst mark in the league.
Trey McBride
McBride is priced down to TE5 this week, his lowest salary in over a year. Going back to last season, he’s seen 10 or more targets in seven of his last 12 games and at least seven targets in 11 of those 12. The matchup against Indianapolis is neutral, but his consistent volume and discounted price make him an appealing option.
David Njoku
Njoku is one of the better bargain options on the slate, and paying down at tight end is a smart way to create room for higher-priced players like Nacua. He played a season-high 96% of the snaps last week and benefited from the switch to Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, catching six passes for 67 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. The matchup is favorable, as the Steelers are allowing 13.4 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, the fourth-most in the league.
Cade Otton
Otton should see an uptick in targets this week with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. While those absences draw most of the attention, the more impactful development may be the return of star tackle Tristan Wirfs, which allows Otton to run more routes instead of staying in to block. He took advantage last week, setting season highs with four catches and 81 yards in the Buccaneers’ 38-35 win. Otton posted several big games last season when injuries hit Tampa’s receiving corps, and he’s positioned to do the same again in 2025 as the offensive line stabilizes.
Hunter Long
Long has just seven catches for 44 yards this season but has played only 78 total snaps. With Brenton Strange sidelined, he should now step into a near every-down role. Both his floor and ceiling are low, but with value options scarce on this slate, getting an every-down tight end in a pass-friendly offense for just $4,200 is worth consideration.