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Then Gary Davenport brings the heat with 10 Fantasy Busts to Avoid. Because sometimes the key to winning is dodging the landmines your league mates step right into.
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Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Overview - Our Footballguys Staff tackles the Colts’ murky outlook across all phases of the game. Josh Downs might break out, Jonathan Taylor might bust, and the QB battle might break your draft.
The 10 Fantasy Busts Who Will Ruin Your Season Before it Starts
By Gary Davenport - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Allen is admittedly one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He's the reigning NFL MVP after throwing for over 3,700 yards last year and accounting for 40 total touchdowns--including 12 on the ground. He's also a terrible use of a second-round pick in one-QB fantasy leagues.
For all that Allen accomplished last season, he was fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. His passing yardage a season ago was his lowest total since 2019. If Allen's rushing touchdowns dip, his fantasy value is going to take a dip. And even if it doesn't, for Allen to return value, he needs to not just finish first among quarterbacks but blow mid-range and lower-end weekly starters out of the proverbial water.
This is less about Allen than being the first quarterback off the board. It doesn't work out often. As in ever.
While I'm chucking big-name signal-callers under the bus, might as well talk about the best quarterback of his generation. This isn't about Mahomes' value to the Chiefs. It's about the fact that Mahomes hasn't thrown for 4,200 passing yards or thrown 30 touchdown passes since he was fantasy football's highest-scoring quarterback in 2022.
Granted, some of that drop-off was due to injuries among Kansas City's pass-catchers, and the return of a healthy Rashee Rice could give Mahomes his best stable of weapons in a while--on paper. But the argument can be made that the Chiefs are playing a more balanced style of football as much by design as due to circumstance, and going pass-wacky this year may not be easy behind an offensive line with multiple question marks.
This is a drum I have been pounding on like Animal (If you don't get that reference, I weep for you) since the summer began, and by August, said drum will probably have a hole in it. There is no early first-rounder who is more guaranteed to wreck your fantasy team this year than Barkley, who was the NFL's ninth 2,000-yard rusher a year ago.
Even in that record-setting season, Barkley only finished .5 PPR points per game ahead of Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs. And between his ridiculous 2024 workload (well over 450 touches counting the playoffs), joining the "2K Club" (and what has happened to its members the year after rushing for 2,000 yards) and leading the league in rushing if Barkley doesn't lose at least 30 percent (best-case) of his fantasy points it will be a miracle. That best-case decline puts Barkley in high-end RB2 territory.
The temptation with Hall is evident--he has finished as a top-10 back in PPR points per game twice in three years. However, Hall has also never had a 1,000-yard season on the ground. His yards per carry have dropped in all three of his professional seasons, and he was RB17 in terms of PPR points per game a year ago.
Now, Hall is playing in a Jets offense with Justin Fields--and Fields has been bad news for fantasy backs in the past. Per Dave Richard of CBS Sports, Fields has started 44 career games. In those games, a running back has notched 15-plus PPR points 18 times, scored 25 times, and totaled at least 100 yards 11 times. If Hall only hits 15 PPR points seven times this year (math is depressing), he's not cracking the top-15. Maybe not even the top-20....
Miami Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright likely will be asked to take a bigger workload this upcoming season and may be used as a inside runner in the offense, in the opinion of DolphinsWire's Jason Sarney.
Our view: We are excited to see more from Wright. The Dolphins have a ton of speed on offense, and Wright fits that bill. With a current ADP of RB52, we love drafting and stashing Wright to see what he can do this year. He'll begin the season as the primary backup to De'Von Achane but it sounds like there might be some work for him here (that could make him fantasy relevant) even if Achane is healthy.
Tennessee Titans WR Calvin Ridley moves and cuts in a way that rookie QB Cam Ward has never seen any receiver move and cut before.'(Ridley is) different. How he moves, everything. Now that I see what a receiver is supposed to be like, that's why I'm glad that Eli (Elic Ayomanor), Chim (Chimere Dike), Strep (Xavier Restrepo), Bryce (Oliver), all the guys in that room, I'm glad they got him because I ain't never threw to no receiver like him, who move like him, can cut like him ... he ain't selfish either. He wants the rookies, all of us, to do better than him because he's gonna end up getting his one-on-ones,' Ward said recently.Ridley's career has become a bit of an odyssey in recently, most of which is through no fault of his own. The primary thing that held him back last year was lackluster quarterback play. In 2023, he was forced into more of an X role due to injuries when his skill set is a better fit as a 'Z.' He missed 2022 due to a gambling suspension and only played five games the season before, making his 90-1,374-9 season in 2020 a bit of a distant memory. With Ward expected to raise the level of quarterback play in Tennessee, Ridley could easily be a top-20 receiver in fantasy this season.
Our view: Ward is an exciting quarterback, and the no.1 overall pick is going to be fun to watch - even through the learning curve that will be his rookie season. Finding his favorite targets in training camp and the preseason could benefit Fantasy GMs out there, especially because some will overlook the Titans passing game. The Titans could be hot-and-cold this year, depending on Ward's progress as a rookie, so if you want to take that ride, then Ridley could pay off in those hot weeks.
Miami Dolphins WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is expected to give the offense something it has not had in recent years: a big-bodied receiver who can help the offense improve last year's 56.6% touchdown rate in the red zone.'He's going to be extremely reliable. I think ultimately if you talk to the guys that knew him in Tennessee and our exposure so far has been consistent work ethic. I think that's ultimately where he puts himself in position to be successful is because he really is a student of the process, making sure he's on the little things so, therefore, on Sundays he can be reliable for the quarterback and really the rest of the offense,' Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith said.
Our view: Westbrook-Ikhine brings another downfield threat to the Dolphins offense, and that's why they signed him to a two-year deal earlier this year. He's coming off a career-high nine receiving touchdowns, but the Dolphins offense is significantly more exciting than the Titans were last year. That means Westbrook-Ikhine could be a nice boom-bust play for Fantasy GMs with weekly 'what the heck' flex appeal.
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught at least five passes in 49 regular season games through his first four seasons in the NFL.
Our view: St. Brown is one of the best in the game, and he's a darling in the fantasy community. Consistency is the name of his game, and that's why he's drafted in the first round near the turn. Currently, St. Brown has an ADP of WR6 and he could once again be a top-5 fantasy receiver when all is said and done.
Los Angeles Chargers TE Tyler Conklin should see plenty of playing time this upcoming season even though TE Will Dissly is expected to be the starting tight end, in the opinion of ChargersWire's Spencer Schultz.
Our view: The Chargers have a tight end situation that bears monitoring. We love the upside of rookie TE Orande Gadsen, but it's going to take time for him to develop at the pro level. That leaves Conklin and fellow veteran TE Will Dissly to work in some form of committee. Fantasy GMs aren't going to be in a rush to draft a Chargers tight end. However, if one of these three emerges as the main guy, then there's some bye week/injury help here. Keep them on your waiver wire
Los Angeles Chargers RB Kimani Vidal 'will have to shine in other areas' in order to lock down the No. 3 role behind Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, in the opinion of Chargers Wire's Spencer Schultz.
Our view: We appreciate Vidal's game, especially because he brings a different skill set to the field than the top-2 backs (Harris and Hampton) on the roster. Vidal is a compact player with good receiving ability in the open field. In addition to what he does as a receiver (and as a runner), Vidal will have to prove himself in pass protection and perhaps get some work in on special teams to lock down the no.3 role for the Chargers.
Free-agent RB Nyheim Hines (Browns) could receive interest from the Philadelphia Eagles once he is healthy, in the opinion of EaglesWire's Victor Williams. Hines has played under head coach Nick Sirianni when they were both with the Indianapolis Colts.
Our view: The Eagles are constantly looking for talent, even as one of the most talented teams in the league. Hines would give the Eagles a veteran receiving back to fill in if/when Saquon Barkley needs a breather. Right now, that job likely goes to Will Shipley.
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