We are on the cusp of the 2021 season. It is time to reap the rewards of our offseason work. It is also a good time to take stock of where we are at in terms of contention. If we are entering a rebuilding year, it is a great time to look at trading those veteran players whose value may never be higher. On the other hand, if we are contenders, it is a good time to have some patience. Hope abounds at this point of the dynasty season. Even that owner with the awful roster may not be keen on trading his veteran running back away now for a future rookie pick. Do not panic and become overly concerned with your Week 1 roster. Once the losses start piling up for other teams, the asking price on those veterans will drop and the rookie picks will be more coveted. Hold your water and make your big “win now” moves in October or November.
In this month’s dynasty trade value article, we will go deeper on:
- A closer look at the rookie quarterbacks
- The injury fallout in Baltimore and Jacksonville
- The wide receivers outside of the Top 40 who have made big moves up the rankings
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Dynasty Web Apps
We recently introduced a customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the player values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. The newest version is available here:
We also made a simple dynasty trade value evaluator that allows you to analyze potential deals by entering the players and picks involved. It is available here:
These are still in the early stages so any and all feedback is appreciated (hindery@footballguys.com or @hindery on Twitter).
Quarterback
| Pos Rank | Player | Value | SF |
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes II | 26 | 60 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | 22 | 55 |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | 21 | 52 |
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | 19 | 50 |
| 5 | Justin Herbert | 16 | 50 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | 16 | 48 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | 13 | 43 |
| 8 | Trevor Lawrence | 13 | 43 |
| 9 | Trey Lance | 13 | 43 |
| 10 | Justin Fields | 12 | 40 |
| 11 | Russell Wilson | 10 | 32 |
| 12 | Zach Wilson | 8 | 32 |
| 13 | Deshaun Watson | 8 | 30 |
| 14 | Matthew Stafford | 7 | 28 |
| 15 | Ryan Tannehill | 7 | 28 |
| 16 | Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 24 |
| 17 | Jalen Hurts | 6 | 21 |
| 19 | Mac Jones | 5 | 23 |
| 18 | Baker Mayfield | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Tua Tagovailoa | 5 | 19 |
| 21 | Tom Brady | 5 | 18 |
| 22 | Jameis Winston | 5 | 16 |
| 23 | Kirk Cousins | 4 | 15 |
| 24 | Sam Darnold | 4 | 15 |
| 25 | Carson Wentz | 4 | 14 |
| 26 | Derek Carr | 4 | 14 |
| 27 | Matt Ryan | 3 | 13 |
| 28 | Daniel Jones | 3 | 13 |
| 29 | Jared Goff | 2 | 12 |
| 30 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 9 |
| 31 | Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 9 |
| 32 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 8 |
| 33 | Jordan Love | 1 | 9 |
| 34 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 8 |
| 35 | Kellen Mond | 1 | 5 |
| 36 | Davis Mills | 1 | 5 |
| 37 | Kyle Trask | 1 | 5 |
| 38 | Taysom Hill | 1 | 4 |
| 39 | Cam Newton | 1 | 4 |
| 40 | Drew Lock | 1 | 3 |
Rise of the Rookies
We already knew this rookie quarterback class had a chance to be special. We now have further evidence of the fantasy upside of the top five quarterbacks in this class in the form of some impressive preseason performances. We already have three of the rookie quarterbacks amongst our Top 10 in dynasty trade value. The other two are not
Let’s run through what we have seen and where things stand:
Trevor Lawrence ended his preseason on a high note, completing 11-of-12 passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns in just three drives against the Cowboys. All the physical traits and intangibles are there for Lawrence to be a star. He just needs the Jaguars organization to make sure he has the coaching and personnel around them to succeed. Stock steady, only because expectations were already so high.
Trey Lance jammed his finger in the final week of the preseason and will be sidelined for a week or so. He may be limited to a “2020 Taysom Hill” role to start the season but it seems like only a matter of time until he earns the starting nod. Given the surrounding talent and Kyle Shanahan’s obvious intent to use Lance as a runner in the red zone, he has the most upside of any quarterback in this class.
Justin Fields will likely have to wait at least a few weeks but, like Lance, it seems only a matter of time until he gets the starting nod over Andy Dalton. Of the quarterbacks in this class, it felt like Fields had the widest potential range of outcomes, from bust to superstar. Based upon early returns from practice and the preseason, we should feel confident that we are heading towards the positive end of the spectrum. With his athleticism, Fields brings major fantasy upside.
Zach Wilson Despite playing in a major media market and having been selected second overall, Wilson continues to fly just slightly under the radar compared to the other top quarterbacks. Wilson is probably both a safer bet to succeed and a higher-upside fantasy option than the general public believes.
Mac Jones With the surprise cut of Cam Newton, Jones is firmly entrenched as the present and future franchise quarterback for the Patriots. Unlike the other four quarterbacks, Jones adds little with his legs. However, that did not stop Tom Brady from putting up big fantasy numbers in New England. It gets easier by the day to feel enthusiastic about Jones and his fantasy potential.
Other QB Notes
- Tua Tagovailoa had a strong preseason but the specter of Deshaun Watson still hangs over his head. The Dolphins have reportedly emerged as the favorite to land Watson, which puts Tagovailoa’s long-term job security very much in question. He has a clear path to being an above-average NFL starter for the next 15 years while also being seriously at risk of being relegated to backup status in the near future. If you are struggling with determining Tagovailoa’s dynasty rade value, you are not alone.
- Jalen Hurts seems to be winning over teammates and coaches. Deshaun Watson, who has a full no-trade clause in his contract, would reportedly veto a trade to Philadelphia. Hurts’ hold on the Eagles' starting job seems to grow firmer by the day.
- Jameis Winston won the starting job in New Orleans and has a prime opportunity to reemerge as a franchise quarterback and valuable dynasty asset. In superflex, it would take a first-round rookie pic for me to move Winston.
- Sam Darnold continues to generate positive buzz in Carolina. He would not be the first player to blossom after leaving behind Adam Gase.
Running Back
Injury Fallout
The big news at the position is the slew of injuries suffered by talented young backs. Let’s look at the impact on the dynasty landscape:
Baltimore
J.K. Dobbins suffered a serious knee injury. This will not only knock him out for the entire season but could be the type of injury that will limit his effectiveness beyond this season. While the situation is not as dire as with Cam Akers, this is not as simple as just crossing out whatever production you were expecting from him this season and keeping his future value exactly the same. There is enough uncertainty here that we should temper future expectations for Dobbins slightly as well.
Gus Edwards gets the biggest bump and fits comfortably in the middle of the tier including Myles Gaskin, Chase Edmonds, Darrell Henderson, and Mike Davis. Each of these players should have solid value in 2021 and have some upside beyond this season, as well.
TySon Williams also is a player who moves to the top of the list of preseason waiver targets. He has leapfrogged Justice Hill on the Baltimore depth chart and should handle a decent workload this season. He is also a Matt Waldman favorite, so there may be more upside here than meets the eye.
Jacksonville
Travis Etienne will miss the entire season with a foot injury. On the bright side, this does not seem like it will be much of an issue for him in 2022 and beyond. There is a solid case to be made that it does not really impact his future value at all. While that may be the case physically, there is some real risk for Etienne in terms of what the injury means for his longer-term role in the Jaguars' backfield.
James Robinson will now have a full year to show off what he can do to the new coaching staff as the clear lead guy. There are some parallels here between the Chris Carson-Rashaad Penny situation in Seattle a few years ago. Injury to the early-round rookie running back allowed the incumbent second-year pro to take the job and run with it. We should recognize that is one of the realistic ways this could all play out and value factor the possibility of that outcome into our valuations of both Etienne and Robinson.
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The Case for Harris
We may be putting the cart in front of the horse here but it is worth considering the possibility that Najee Harris is the dynasty RB1 by the end of the 2021 season. Here is the case for why that is a realistic possibility:
- No team in the NFL has leaned more heavily on a single lead back than the Steelers. On a per-game basis, the top back has scored 86.6% of the fantasy points for Pittsburgh since 2014 (tops in the NFL by a good margin).
- The preseason usage rate and all reporting out of Pittsburgh indicated that Najee Harris could play something in the neighborhood of 90% of the Steelers offensive snaps, which would project out to well over 900 total snaps.
- Over the last four years, seven running backs have played 800+ snaps in a season. In those seasons, they averaged 357.9 fantasy points (PPR).
Wide Receiver
Sleepers Emerging
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Very little changed in the Top 40. Some guys gained or lost a few points worth of value here or there based upon depth chart movement or minor injuries, but it is mostly status quo near the top as we head into September. Where we did see some movement was outside the Top 40:
- Corey Davis makes a nice move up the board and is right on the cusp of reentering the Top 40 for the first time in a couple of years. He has shown a real rapport with Zach Wilson and Wilson looks like the type of quarterback who can support one or more fantasy-relevant weapons.
- Antonio Brown has seen his redraft ADP slowly but steadily rise from the 10th round to the 6th round and his dynasty value has crept up, as well.
- Jakobi Meyers has had a strong camp and looks like a favorite target of Mac Jones. He will have a chance to establish that he was not a one-year wonder.
- Marquez Callaway looks locked in as the top wide receiver in New Orleans (until Michael Thomas returns) and could have some staying power.
- Josh Palmer is emerging as the most likely candidate to be the 2021 rookie class version of Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, etc. All guys who were drafted in the third round or later who made an instant fantasy impact and have emerged as valuable dynasty assets. There is still a long way to go here but the early returns are promising.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has cemented his role as the WR2 in Green Bay and there has been a steady drumbeat about the progress he has made. He has always had an elite physical profile and it sounds like he is now polishing off the rough edges. He is a sneaky post-hype breakout candidate.
Tight End
| Pos Rank | Player | Value |
| 1 | Kyle Pitts | 33 |
| 3 | Darren Waller | 28 |
| 2 | George Kittle | 27 |
| 4 | Travis Kelce | 25 |
| 5 | T.J. Hockenson | 18 |
| 6 | Mark Andrews | 16 |
| 7 | Noah Fant | 9 |
| 8 | Logan Thomas | 9 |
| 9 | Dallas Goedert | 7 |
| 10 | Mike Gesicki | 7 |
| 11 | Tyler Higbee | 7 |
| 12 | Cole Kmet | 7 |
| 13 | Pat Freiermuth | 7 |
| 14 | Robert Tonyan Jr | 7 |
| 15 | Jonnu Smith | 7 |
| 16 | Evan Engram | 5 |
| 17 | Hunter Henry | 5 |
| 18 | Gerald Everett | 5 |
| 19 | Irv Smith | 5 |
| 20 | Adam Trautman | 4 |
| 21 | Austin Hooper | 3 |
| 22 | Rob Gronkowski | 3 |
| 23 | Anthony Firkser | 2 |
| 24 | Blake Jarwin | 2 |
| 25 | Zach Ertz | 2 |
| 26 | Noah Gray | 2 |
| 27 | Jacob Harris | 2 |
| 28 | Jared Cook | 2 |
| 29 | Hayden Hurst | 2 |
| 30 | Kylen Granson | 2 |
| 31 | Eric Ebron | 1 |
| 32 | Harrison Bryant | 1 |
| 33 | O.J. Howard | 1 |
| 34 | Hunter Long | 1 |
| 35 | Tommy Tremble | 1 |
Movement
- Logan Thomas had a strong finish to the 2020 season and has looked great leading into 2021. He has emerged as the consensus TE7 in redraft leagues and his dynasty value is rising accordingly.
- Mike Gesicki has had a strong camp and benefits from Tua Tagovailoa showing signs of being able to support multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers.
- Pat Freiermuth announced his presence on the dynasty scene with a two-touchdown preseason game. Expect him to be a major red zone weapon for the Steelers. He has the potential to make a major move up the rankings with a big rookie season.
- Irv Smith suffered a knee injury that will delay his potential breakout. This could be a buy-low opportunity for those with the patience and positional depth to wait out his absence.
