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We are on the cusp of the 2021 season. It is time to reap the rewards of our offseason work. It is also a good time to take stock of where we are at in terms of contention. If we are entering a rebuilding year, it is a great time to look at trading those veteran players whose value may never be higher. On the other hand, if we are contenders, it is a good time to have some patience. Hope abounds at this point of the dynasty season. Even that owner with the awful roster may not be keen on trading his veteran running back away now for a future rookie pick. Do not panic and become overly concerned with your Week 1 roster. Once the losses start piling up for other teams, the asking price on those veterans will drop and the rookie picks will be more coveted. Hold your water and make your big “win now” moves in October or November.
In this month’s dynasty trade value article, we will go deeper on:
- A closer look at the rookie quarterbacks
- The injury fallout in Baltimore and Jacksonville
- The wide receivers outside of the Top 40 who have made big moves up the rankings
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Dynasty Web Apps
We recently introduced a customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the player values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. The newest version is available here:
We also made a simple dynasty trade value evaluator that allows you to analyze potential deals by entering the players and picks involved. It is available here:
These are still in the early stages so any and all feedback is appreciated (email@example.com or @hindery on Twitter).
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Rise of the Rookies
We already knew this rookie quarterback class had a chance to be special. We now have further evidence of the fantasy upside of the top five quarterbacks in this class in the form of some impressive preseason performances. We already have three of the rookie quarterbacks amongst our Top 10 in dynasty trade value. The other two are not
Let’s run through what we have seen and where things stand:
Trevor Lawrence ended his preseason on a high note, completing 11-of-12 passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns in just three drives against the Cowboys. All the physical traits and intangibles are there for Lawrence to be a star. He just needs the Jaguars organization to make sure he has the coaching and personnel around them to succeed. Stock steady, only because expectations were already so high.
Trey Lance jammed his finger in the final week of the preseason and will be sidelined for a week or so. He may be limited to a “2020 Taysom Hill” role to start the season but it seems like only a matter of time until he earns the starting nod. Given the surrounding talent and Kyle Shanahan’s obvious intent to use Lance as a runner in the red zone, he has the most upside of any quarterback in this class.
Justin Fields will likely have to wait at least a few weeks but, like Lance, it seems only a matter of time until he gets the starting nod over Andy Dalton. Of the quarterbacks in this class, it felt like Fields had the widest potential range of outcomes, from bust to superstar. Based upon early returns from practice and the preseason, we should feel confident that we are heading towards the positive end of the spectrum. With his athleticism, Fields brings major fantasy upside.
Zach Wilson Despite playing in a major media market and having been selected second overall, Wilson continues to fly just slightly under the radar compared to the other top quarterbacks. Wilson is probably both a safer bet to succeed and a higher-upside fantasy option than the general public believes.
Mac Jones With the surprise cut of Cam Newton, Jones is firmly entrenched as the present and future franchise quarterback for the Patriots. Unlike the other four quarterbacks, Jones adds little with his legs. However, that did not stop Tom Brady from putting up big fantasy numbers in New England. It gets easier by the day to feel enthusiastic about Jones and his fantasy potential.
Other QB Notes
- Tua Tagovailoa had a strong preseason but the specter of Deshaun Watson still hangs over his head. The Dolphins have reportedly emerged as the favorite to land Watson, which puts Tagovailoa’s long-term job security very much in question. He has a clear path to being an above-average NFL starter for the next 15 years while also being seriously at risk of being relegated to backup status in the near future. If you are struggling with determining Tagovailoa’s dynasty rade value, you are not alone.
- Jalen Hurts seems to be winning over teammates and coaches. Deshaun Watson, who has a full no-trade clause in his contract, would reportedly veto a trade to Philadelphia. Hurts’ hold on the Eagles' starting job seems to grow firmer by the day.
- Jameis Winston won the starting job in New Orleans and has a prime opportunity to reemerge as a franchise quarterback and valuable dynasty asset. In superflex, it would take a first-round rookie pic for me to move Winston.
- Sam Darnold continues to generate positive buzz in Carolina. He would not be the first player to blossom after leaving behind Adam Gase.
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