The consensus rookie rankings at Footballguys are one of the strongest features we produce each season. However, despite embedded commentary, the consensus rankings can be light on context. If you look carefully, you can see tiers, but it can be difficult to compare players within their position and across multiple positions.
Knowing Player X is the consensus RB3 is clear from the rankings. Knowing how nearly Player X was to being ranked RB2 or RB6, or how Player X compares to the WR5 or TE1 or LB2 is much less clear.
I prefer a more visual approach, one that tiers players by position but also shows the value of one position relative to another across my draft board.
NOTES ON THE DRAFT BOARD
- The first version of this feature is based on limited information. Coaching comments, mini-camp observations, debate within the fantasy community, and the clarity that comes from testing this board in my own drafts will bring changes to future versions.
- I build this draft board with the following league parameters in mind: 12-14 teams, PPR, balanced IDP scoring, and full IDP lineups that include defensive tackles and cornerbacks. The commentary that follows the draft board will sometimes address modifications for leagues that provide bonuses for tight end scoring, big play IDP systems, etc.
- There may be more than 12-14 players listed in a given draft round. That's a function of the tiered approach. It's also a natural reflection of the wide range of ADP valuations we always see as a rookie draft moves into the deeper rounds. In some years, there may be fewer than 10-12 players in a draft round. Drafting trends may change from year to year, but it’s important to recognize when to trade for a future pick than to reach for a clearly less valuable talent now.
- This board reflects my personal drafting philosophy. I prioritize upside over floor within tiers. I'm willing to accept a higher bust risk in all rounds. I prefer to draft players who are likely to be successful sooner if other variables are equal. And I'm not afraid to trust my evaluations of defensive players and draft a second-tier IDP over a third-tier offensive prospect -- regardless of positional scarcity.
- The offensive columns of this draft board are informed by the in-depth process and work of Matt Waldman, Matt Harmon, Sigmund Bloom, Cecil Lammey, as well as Josh Norris, Dane Brugler, Mark Schofield, Emory Hunt, Evan Silva, J.J. Zachariason, Gary Davenport, and many others. I have also relied on the rankings of Bob Henry, John Norton, and Jason Wood at Footballguys for years. If you have other evaluators on your shortlist and they differ greatly from this board, tweak accordingly.
The draft board is designed to be read from top to bottom and left to right. Each position is tiered from top to bottom in its own column. Separations within the columns represent relative tiers and the players are ranked by preference within those tiers. Relative value between positions can be tracked from left to right. The "suggested" draft rounds are based on my view of a player's value, with some consideration given to keeping the number of players with a given draft round grade to a reasonable total.
Positional commentaries can be found after the draft board.
2021 Combined Draft Board
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Round 1
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Quarterback
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Running Back
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Wide Receiver
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Tight End
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Tackle
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End
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Edge Rusher
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Linebacker
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Cornerback
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Safety
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Harris, Pit
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Chase, Cin
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Pitts, Atl | |||||||
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talent gap
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Waddle, Mia | ||||||||
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Williams, Den
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| Lawrence, Jac |
Sermon, SF
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Smith, Phi
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| Lance, SF |
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Parsons, Dal | |||||||
| Fields, Chi | Etienne, Jac | Marshall, Car |
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Collins, Ari
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Round 2
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Quarterback
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Running Back
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Wide Receiver
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Tight End
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Tackle
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End
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Edge Rusher
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Linebacker
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Cornerback
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Safety
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Carter, NYJ
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Bateman, Bal
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Davis, Was | |||||||
| Wilson, NYJ |
Moore, NYJ
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Moore, Ari
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Owusu-Koramoah, Cle
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Jones, NE
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Toney, NYG
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Bolton, KC | |||||||
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Rodgers, GB
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Werner, NO | ||||||||
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Stevenson, NE
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St. Brown, Det
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Phillips, Mia | |||||||
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Fitzpatrick, Ten
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Round 3
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Quarterback
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Running Back
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Wide Receiver
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Tight End
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Tackle
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End
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Edge Rusher
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Linebacker
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Cornerback
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Safety
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Palmer, LAC
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Freiermuth, Pit |
Barnes, Det
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Eskridge, Sea |
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Collins, Hou |
Ojulari, NYG
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Brown, Was
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Round 4
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Quarterback
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Running Back
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Wide Receiver
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Tight End
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Tackle
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End
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Edge Rusher
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Linebacker
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Cornerback
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Safety
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| Mills, Hou |
Rountree, LAC
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Williams, Den
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Paye, Ind
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Phillips, Mia | |||
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Gainwell, Phi
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Schwartz, Cle
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Rousseau, Buf
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Ojulari, NYG | ||||||
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Hubbard, Car
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Darby, Atl
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Tryon, TB | ||||||
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Herbert, Chi |
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Round 5
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Quarterback
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Running Back
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Wide Receiver
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Tight End
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Tackle
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End
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Edge Rusher
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Linebacker
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Cornerback
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Safety
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Wallace, Bal
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Harris, LAR | Cox, Dal |
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Powell, KC
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McKitty, LAC |
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Smith-Marsette, Min
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Tremble, Car | Basham, Buf | Paye, Ind |
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Grant, Atl | ||||
| Darden, TB | Long, Mia | Turner, NO | Rousseau, Buf |
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Moehrig, Las | ||||
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Round 6
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Quarterback
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Running Back
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Wide Receiver
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Tight End
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Tackle
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End
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Edge Rusher
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Linebacker
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Cornerback
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Safety
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| Trask, TB | Nwangwu, Min | Atwell, LAR |
Jordan, Hou
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Barmore, NE | Ossai, Cin |
Oweh, Bal
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Holland, Mia | ||
| Mitchell, SF |
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Odeyingbo, Ind |
Tryon, TB
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Cisco, Jac | |||||
| Hill, GB |
Ossai, Cin
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Round 7 - Free Agents
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Quarterback
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Running Back
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Wide Receiver
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Tight End
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Tackle
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End
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Edge Rusher
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Linebacker
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Cornerback
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Safety
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| Jefferson, Det | Fehoko, Dal | Granson, Ind | Onwuzurike, Det | Golston, Dal | Odeyingbo, Ind | Surratt, Min | Horn, Car | Holland, Mia | |
| Patterson, Was | Newsome, Chi | Bates, Was | Williams, Phi | Perkins, NE | Rice, Ten | Surtain, Den | Cisco, Jac | ||
| Hawkins, Atl | Camp, Jac | Gray, KC | Odighizuwa, Dal | Basham, Buf | Jones, LAR | Newsome, Cle | |||
| Scott, NO | Johnson, Sea | Reyes, Was | Nixon, Car | Turner, NO | Browning, Den | Farley, Ten | |||
| Johnson, Sea | Stevenson, Buf | Yeboah, NYJ | Wilson, Cle | Diablo, Las | Samuel, LAC | ||||
| Smith, Car | Nasirildeen, NYJ | Stokes, GB | |||||||
| Terry, Sea | Robinson, NYG | ||||||||
| Adams, Det | Joseph, Dal | ||||||||
| Surratt, Det | Campbell, Jac | ||||||||
| Watkins, SF | |||||||||
THE BIG PICTURE
The consensus among fantasy analysts is that this year's group of rookie prospects is thin. Over the past seasons, I've done less personal analysis and used a consensus opinion of trusted writers to form my own draft board -- so I'm inclined to agree with that assessment.
But that doesn't mean the 2021 rookie class is full of duds. And that leaves room for varying strategies.
When you don't feel strongly about a rookie class, you can trade picks for veteran players, trade current picks for future picks, or trade later-round picks for early-round selections. Unfortunately, when the consensus opinion is less than inspiring, your leaguemates are likely to feel the same.
So these drafts become "shoot your shot" drafts. At some point in your draft, you'll be looking at a list of players you may have difficulty getting excited about. Err on the side of high-risk, high-reward talents. Ignore ADP and grab players earlier than the rankings or tiers may suggest.
This draft is deep at quarterback and linebacker. The list of draftable names at wide receiver is considerable but every player but one has questions to be answered.
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Quarterbacks
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Tier
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Player
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Team
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Notes
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I
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Jac
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Highly talented player in uncertain situation; offense remains under construction
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I
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SF
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May not start immediately but should earn job quickly, high upside in Shanahan offense
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I
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Chi
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Ignore criticisms about his pocket play; mobile and talented w/ upside in 2022 and beyond
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II
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NYJ
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Arm talent isn't everything and Jets' offense doesn't inspire confidence
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II
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NE
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Not likely to be productive enough to be more than a committee fantasy option
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III
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Hou
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Dumpster fire in Houston but Watson's days may be numbered
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| Kyle Trask | TB | Brady shows few signs of slowing down | |
| Kellen Mond | Min | Chance to develop behind Cousins but not worth roster spot except in deepest leagues | |
Lawrence, Lance, and Fields all offer upside on varying timelines. The surrounding cast and scheme in San Francisco set Lance up for the highest success -- if he can move Jimmy Garoppolo to the backup role quickly. Fields has the best combination of pocket skill and mobility but don't expect Lamar Jackson numbers until 2022, if ever. Mills is your most cost-effective mid-round target.
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Running Backs
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Tier
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Player
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Team
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Notes
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I
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Pit
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Limited competition on team known for heavy lead-back usage; offensive line concerns notable
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II
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Den
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Denver traded up but must wrest lead role from Gordon, await long-term quarterback option
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II
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SF
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Niners' running back chart remains crowded but Sermon will get chances to earn volume
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III
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Travis Etienne
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Jac
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Betting on talent and targets rather than volume and goal-line work
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III
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Michael Carter |
NYJ
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Analysts differ on skill set but likely versatile enough to handle 15+ touches if asked
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IV
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NE
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Latest in long line of Patriot backs who could see runs of high volume
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V
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Larry Rountree | LAC | Crowded depth chart but talent to watch in high-upside offense |
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V
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Kenneth Gainwell | Phi | Does not profile as volume back, Eagles already have skilled receiving option in Scott |
| V | Chuba Hubbard | Car | Depth chart looks favorable but no chance at volume if McCaffrey stays healthy |
| V | Khalil Herbert | Chi | Fell in draft and crowded depth chart, but there's high-volume talent here in time |
| Kene Nwangwu | Min | Drafted highly but hard to find an analyst that feels he's worth a high draft pick | |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | ||
| Kylin Hill | GB | ||
| Jermar Jefferson | Det | ||
| Jaret Patterson | Was | ||
| Javian Hawkins | Atl | ||
| Stevie Scott | NO | ||
| Josh Johnson | Sea | ||
This group of running backs is not inspiring. You'll have to be patient with any player you draft from this group -- even Harris behind an unusually suspect Pittsburgh offensive line. Rhamondre Stevenson and Khalil Herbert are your most likely undervalued targets as the draft progresses.
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Wide Receivers
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Tier
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Player
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Team
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Notes
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I
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JaMarr Chase
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Cin
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Easily class of this group w/ double-digit weekly target upside for long time
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II
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Mia
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Highly talented but crowded depth chart and Tagovailoa's development are near-term issues
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II
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Phi
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Huge talent w/ frighteningly small frame, questionable QB situation, complicated depth chart
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III
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Terrace Marshall
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Car
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Longer-term investment w/ high upside if talent overcomes depth chart and QB uncertainty
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III
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Bal
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Better receiving fit for Baltimore offense than anyone else on roster
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III
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NYJ
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Big play slot w/ chance for high target volume despite crowded depth chart
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III
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Ari
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Exciting slot option lands in enticing offense w/ chance to grow into Murray's WR2
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III
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NYG
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Undeniable talent but opinions vary on upside, consistency, maturity, and NYG offense
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III
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GB
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Would be higher if Aaron Rodgers was long-term starter in Green Bay
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III
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Det
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Talent to take advantage of a wide-open Detroit depth chart | |
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III
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Ten
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Eye-opening draft capital w/ possible path to long-term WR2 alongside Brown | |
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IV
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Josh Palmer
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LAC
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Doesn't have immediate path to targets but depth chart could open up quickly in 2022
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IV
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DWayne Eskridge
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Sea
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Seahawks pass offense always frustrating and small chance of volume w/ Metcalf & Lockett
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V
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Hou
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Awaiting clarity in Houston but has WR2 upside if Texans develop viable offensive plan
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V
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Was
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Draft capital notable but depth chart leaves little room for statistical upside
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Den
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Tons of potential and Denver rumored to be interested in Aaron Rodgers
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Anthony Schwartz |
Cle
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Questionable upside here but speed and ascending Cleveland offense intriguing
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| Frank Darby |
Atl
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Longer-term upside bet if Falcons offense turns over; Waldman favorite | |
| Tylan Wallace |
Bal
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Tough to read Baltimore receiver depth chart but there's upside here to monitor | |
| Cornell Powell |
KC
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Any receiver with Mahomes under center is a must-monitor option | |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette |
Min
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Limited all-around game but chance at future volume if depth chart breaks favorably | |
| Jaelon Darden |
TB
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Deep threat w/ slot upside if depth chart breaks in his favor and earns Brady's trust | |
| Tutu Atwell |
LAR
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Second-round pick who's likely valued as a returner more than receiver | |
The 1.01 in rookie drafts looks like a competition between Kyle Pitts and Chase. You won't go wrong with either selection. After Chase, every player on the board has a meaningful question facing them. Still, with the dearth of options at running back, you'll be throwing multiple darts at the wide receiver and linebacker columns this year.
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Tight Ends
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Tier
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Player
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Team
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Notes
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I
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Atl | Chance to break rookie tight end records even w/ Jones and Ridley accumulating targets | |
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II
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Pit
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Steeler tight ends have value but Roethlisberger at end of his rope
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III
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LAR
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Rams plan to use him at tight end, providing intriguing value in a shallow class
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III
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Tre McKitty
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LAC
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Flyer toward the end of the draft in TE-premium setups, depth chart crowded
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III
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Tommy Tremble |
Car
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Unlikely to see high volume even with thin depth chart
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| III | Hunter Long | Mia | Lower ceiling than other players in same tier but has highest floor |
| Brevin Jordan | Hou | ||
| Kylen Granson | Ind | ||
| Noah Gray | KC | ||
It's not often you'll see a tight end in consideration for a first-round rookie pick. The combination of Pitts' talent and a lack of stud options at running back and wide receiver make Pitts a favorite to go 1.01 in many drafts. Freiermuth is the only other tight end worth discussing in the top 50 selections.
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Defensive Tackles
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Tier
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Player
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Team
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Notes
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I
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Christian Barmore |
NE
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Talented and disruptive, Patriot stat crew adds value w/ frequent assisted tackles
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Levi Onwuzurike | Det | |
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Milton Williams | Phi | |
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Osa Odighizuwa | Dal | |
| Daviyon Nixon | Car | ||
| Marvin Wilson | Cle | ||
Barmore is the only prospect worth drafting. The rest belong on a watch list. Undrafted free agent Wilson could prove to be the best fantasy option on this list if he makes Cleveland's roster.
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Defensive Ends
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Tier
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Player
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Team
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Notes
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I
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Kwity Paye | Ind | Inexperienced and needs development but 800-snap, double-digit sack upside if hits |
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I
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Gregory Rousseau
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Buf
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High ceiling but depth chart deep enough to prevent full-time duty until 2022
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II
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Carlos Basham
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Buf
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Less edge upside than Rousseau but more polished all-around player, similar depth chart concerns
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II
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NO
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Saints love him but isn't classic high-upside edge talent
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III
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Cin
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Edge upside w/ likely rotational role early, would rank higher w/ better run defense projection
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III
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Ind
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Recovering from Achilles injury, has long-term every-down upside
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There isn't an immediate difference-maker in this group with Jaelan Phillips likely to be classified as a linebacker. If you're convinced someone has a better-than-average shot at 45 solo, 12 sack upside, it's worth pulling the trigger in the first 40 picks. But I see too much talent at linebacker and wide receiver to be reaching for any edge player in the first three rounds this year.
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Edge Rushers
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Tier
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Player
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Team
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Notes
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I
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Mia
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Worth a look in second round if your league uses edge designation
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II
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NYG
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Double-digit sack upside w/ outside chance at 50 solos, immediate 700+ snap player
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III
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Gregory Rousseau |
Buf
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Like his edge upside better than Paye, may have lower ceiling in tackle-heavy leagues
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III
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Ind
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Inexperienced but 800-snap, double-digit sack upside if hits
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Jayson Oweh
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Bal
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| Joe Tryon | TB | ||
| Joseph Ossai | Cin | ||
| Dayo Odeyingbo | Ind | ||
| Ronnie Perkins | NE | ||
| Carlos Basham | Buf | ||
| Payton Turner | NO | ||
There will be double-digit sack production in time from multiple players on this list. Outside of Phillips, every player here needs an improved pass rush plan. Many aren't likely to see more than 500-600 snaps until 2022. Be ready to move on the bottom half of this list should reports of an impressive training camp surface.
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Linebackers
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Tier
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Player
|
Team
|
Notes
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|
I
|
Micah Parsons |
Dal
|
Immediate every-down starter w/ elite talent and target-rich environment
|
|
I
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Ari
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Aggressive all-around talent w/ size, projects to replace Hicks inside quickly
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|
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I
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Was
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Could be most immediately productive as every-down WLB w/ limited competition for tackles
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II
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Cle
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First-round talent, Browns traded up for him, should soon become productive every-down WLB
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II
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KC
|
Will team with Gay as every-down inside backers soon
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|
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II
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NO
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Will start at WLB w/ likely transition to MLB, every-down talent should play in nickel, too
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|
|
III
|
Derrick Barnes | Det | Slated to play MLB but unclear how soon and whether he's capable of every-down fit |
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III
|
Jaelan Phillips | Mia | Moves into Tier 2 in big-play scoring systems |
|
|
Azeez Ojulari | NYG | Option in big-play scoring systems only |
|
|
Jabril Cox | Dal | Longer-term upside if wins every-down role, capable but Neal's presence limits chances |
|
|
Chazz Surratt | Min | Muddy path to every-down playing time but talent is there |
|
|
Monty Rice | Ten | Unlikely every-down player but clear path to run-stopping MLB role when Evans moves on |
|
|
Ernest Jones | LAR | Drafted higher than projected suggests Rams have plans for him, will struggle to play nickel |
| Baron Browning | Den | Depth chart could be favorable but needs lots of snaps for statistical upside | |
| Divine Diablo | LV | College safety drafted as developmental nickel backer | |
| Hamsah Nasirildeen | NYJ | College safety drafted as developmental nickel backer | |
And I thought last year's linebacker group was deep.
There were four players with long-term LB1 upside in last year's class. The depth of the class was in the later tiers, where multiple players looked like developmental talents with every-down upside.
This year, there are six players who project to every-down snaps by the end of 2021. All have the talent to put up 90 solos or better. I have them separated into two tiers but will not quibble if you like any of the second-tier talents at the end of the first round. Derrick Barnes and Jabril Cox are likely to earn every-down roles by opening weekend in 2022 and will ascend sooner with injury or poor play by the veterans currently ahead of them.
Jaelan Phillips is worth a top 25 pick in sack-heavy scoring systems.
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Cornerbacks
|
|||
|
Tier
|
Player
|
Team
|
Notes
|
|
|
Jaycee Horn | Car |
Players are listed in relative order of preference but none are worthy of a middle-round selection
|
|
|
Patrick Surtain | Den | |
|
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Greg Newsome | Cle | |
|
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Caleb Farley | Ten | Could be most attractive option but back injury concerns me short- and long-term |
|
|
Asante Samuel | LAC | |
|
|
Eric Stokes | GB | |
|
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Aaron Robinson | NYG | |
|
|
Kelvin Joseph | Dal | |
|
|
Tyson Campbell | Jac | |
Same advice, new season. You're looking for aggressive tacklers with elite ball skills and a path to immediate playing time. There are no obvious options with immediate 60 solo, 15 pass defensed players. I've listed the most attractive options for deeper leagues.
