How Do QBs Whose Surroundings Have Changed Stack Up for 2022?

Photo: Bob Donnan, USA Today Sports

Lots of QBs are on new teams or have new teammates.

As we try to forecast the upcoming year, let's take a look at some QB statistics from 2021. The past obviously doesn't dictate the future, but it can give clues.

We'll look at these areas and more for all quarterbacks who attempted at least 225 passes in 2021:

Completion Percentage
Touchdown Percentage
Interception Percentage
Yards Per Attempt
Passing Touchdowns Per Game
Expected Points Added Per Play
Completion Percentage Over Expected

These stats will highlight the quarterbacks that were the most accurate, aggressive, and productive last season.

Accuracy is incorporated by the completion percentage and completion percentage over expected metrics.

Aggressiveness considers the yards per attempt.

And productivity includes the touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passing touchdowns per game, and expected points added per play numbers.

The goal is to illuminate where each quarterback stands heading into next year from a passing standpoint. Let’s get to it.

Key for the tables below:

• Gm = Games
• Cmp% = Completion Percentage
• Cmp% R = Completion Percentage Rank
• TD% = Touchdown Percentage
• TD% R = Touchdown Percentage Rank
• Int% = Interception Percentage
• Int% R = Interception Percentage Rank
• Y/A = Yards per Attempt
• Y/A R = Yards per Attempt Rank
• Pass TDs/G = Pass Touchdowns per Game
• Pass TDs/G R = Pass Touchdowns per Game Rank
• EPA/Play = Expected Points Added per Play
• EPA/Play Rank = Expected Points Added per Play Rank
• CPOE = Completion Percentage Over Expected
• CPOE Rank = Completion Percentage Over Expected Rank

Here are each quarterback's rankings in each category along with their average ranking.

Aaron Rodgers

• Major Change: Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are gone
• Analysis: Rodgers is one of the best football players of all time and the reigning back-to-back MVP. Rodgers dominated last season, ranking first by a wide margin when averaging out the rankings of the seven statistics highlighted above and ranking first in multiple categories including TD%, INT%, EPA per Play, and CPOE. Despite some coaching changes this offseason, Rodgers is in a position to continue his excellent play entering 2022 thanks to stability at the top with Matt LaFleur continuing to call the shots. From a redraft and best ball fantasy perspective though, Rodgers is not a priority at his current ADP of QB9 and 79.9 overall according to Underdog Fantasy without Adams and Valdes-Scantling. Rodgers will play the majority of the 2022 season at 38 years of age and offers very little upside with his legs at this stage of his career. Rodgers will undoubtedly elevate the pass-catchers around him but even great quarterbacks benefit from talented teammates and a Packers’ depth chart currently comprised of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree, Malik Taylor, and Robert Tonyan Jr coming off a mid-season ACL tear doesn’t impress.

Dak Prescott

• Major Change: Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson are gone
• Analysis: Returning from a compound fracture and dislocated right ankle suffered in 2020, questions surrounded Prescott regarding his health entering last season. Before Prescott could answer those questions he suffered a unique shoulder injury prior to week 1. Still, Prescott played in 16 games putting together an up and down roller coaster season while also dealing with a calf injury that seemingly hindered him for weeks. This context makes it all the more impressive Prescott finished the year ranked tied for second with another star quarterback returning from injury, Joe Burrow, when averaging out the rankings of the seven statistics highlighted above. If Prescott can leave all of these unique injuries behind him and put together a healthy 2022 campaign, the data suggests Prescott has untapped upside we haven't seen in years due to the circumstances. Only 29 years old for the entirety of the 2022 season, Prescott offers more rushing upside than he delivered last year. From 2016-2020, Prescott totaled 24 rushing touchdowns. The losses of Cooper and Wilson are not ideal but Dallas does have CeeDee Lamb, whose profile screams alpha wide receiver star in the making as well as Dalton Schultz and newly added James Washington should provide stability on the outside until Michael Gallup is ready to go. Unfortunately, Prescott's current ADP of QB7 and 70.2 overall according to Underdog Fantasy is already baking in some of that optimism, making him a fine selection in redraft and best ball but not a priority one. In dynasty though, Prescott is a player worth trading for, especially in Superflex.

Kyler Murray

• Major Change: Christian Kirk is gone
• Analysis: Murray's upside as a rusher is well known but his passing statistics impressed in 2021 as well. Murray ranked fifth out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in the seven statistics highlighted above, impressively finishing second in completion percentage, fifth in TD%, and fourth in yards per attempt. Murray and the Cardinals have had a rocky offseason as Murray looks for a long-term contract extension and a commitment from the organization. This must be noted as a holdout is within the range of outcomes should Murray's contract not be figured out prior to the beginning of the season. Still, the odds of Murray sitting out games remain low at this time. Arizona figures to slot Rondale Moore right into Christian Kirk's vacated role, which means the offense shouldn't take a step back at all with DeAndre Hopkins returning from injury and Zach Ertz now in the fold for the entirety of the 2022 season. Murray is a target in redraft and best Ball at his current ADP of QB6 and 58.8 overall according to Underdog Fantasy after finishing as the QB4 in fantasy points per game in 2021. Murray remains an exciting player to inquire about in dynasty as well but I'd be hesitant in giving up a fortune with baseball remaining as a possible option and the contract questions still looming.

Russell Wilson

• Major Change: Traded to the Broncos
• Analysis: Wilson had a down year after rushing back too quickly from a torn tendon in his throwing finger, which makes his ranking of sixth out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in the seven statistics highlighted above extremely impressive. Wilson is only 33 years old and his trade to Denver frees him from the archaic offensive philosophy Pete Carroll and the Seahawks continue to deploy. Wilson will now work with new head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, and new offensive coordinator, Justin Outten, with the Broncos. Hackett and Outten were both in Green Bay coaching Aaron Rodgers last season, Hackett as the offensive coordinator and Outten as the tight ends coach. There is plenty of projecting going on as we don't yet know how Hackett and Outten will work with Wilson but optimism is certainly warranted, especially thanks to the skill position players Denver has in place. Wilson is a priority target in redraft and best ball at his current ADP of QB12 and 92.7 overall according to Underdog Fantasy and is an exciting target in dynasty leagues as well, especially Superflex.

Patrick Mahomes II

• Major Change: Tyreek Hill and Byron Pringle are gone. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been brought in
• Analysis: Mahomes and the Chiefs offense dealt with ups and downs as defenses worked to take away the deep ball last season. This likely contributed to Mahomes only finishing tied for eighth out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in the seven statistics highlighted above despite the near-unanimous opinion Mahomes is the best player in football. This ranking is interesting but nothing more as Mahomes still threw for 4,839 yards and 37 touchdowns and finished as the QB5 in fantasy points per game. There should be no negative sentiment at all when comparing Mahomes to other quarterbacks moving forward overall. However, from a fantasy perspective, the loss of Tyreek Hill should make managers stop and think a bit since he's still is being drafted at QB2 and 33.0 overall according to Underdog Fantasy. Mahomes will continue to be the face of the NFL but the opportunity cost of selecting a quarterback in the third round in both redraft and best ball must be considered, especially since Mahomes is a fine rusher but not an elite one like Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson. However, the loss of Hill does nothing to change my ranking of Mahomes as the best asset in dynasty Superflex leagues, so this is a great time to inquire about Mahomes in those formats.

Derek Carr

• Major Change: The Raiders traded for Davante Adams
• Analysis: Carr put in another solid season in 2021 ranking fifth in completion percentage, sixth in yards per attempt, and eighth in completion percentage over expected. While not flashy and quite honestly unexciting, Carr still got it done finishing as the QB13 in fantasy points per game. And the excitement level has now piqued with the Raiders' addition of Davante Adams, arguably the best wide receiver in the game. Carr will now be throwing to his former college teammate in Adams as well as Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow while also receiving a coaching and play-calling upgrade in new head coach Josh McDaniels. And the Raiders, playing in the ultra-competitive AFC West, don't project to be sitting on leads and playing conservatively much this year. Carr is a good selection in best ball at his current ADP of QB17 and 128.6 overall according to Underdog Fantasy and he'll be in the streaming conversation every week in 10-12 team one quarterback redraft leagues as well.

Tua Tagovailoa

• Major Change: The Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill and signed Cedrick Wilson
• Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa was an average quarterback according to the metrics in the above table, ranking 17th out of 33 qualifying players but he did show promise with his accuracy ranking seventh in completion percentage and eighth in completion percentage over expected. That gives us something to work with because the new head coach, Mike McDaniel, was with the 49ers from 2017-2021, and during that time San Francisco consistently put an emphasis on getting their playmakers the ball in space to allow them to accentuate their strengths. McDaniel has already expressed his desire to transfer that philosophy to the Dolphins and newly acquired Tyreek Hill paired with Jaylen Waddle will make this a seamless transition. Hill and Waddle form the fastest WR duo in the league and will allow the quick passing game to excel. Tagovailoa's statistics will look better thanks to his playmaker's yards after catch ability. Mike Gesicki was retained and additional reinforcements in Cedrick Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Terron Armstead, and Connor Williams have been brought in. Tagovailoa is a buy in best ball at his current ADP of QB19 and 140.3 overall according to Underdog Fantasy and will be in the streaming conversation every week in 10-12 team one quarterback redraft leagues as well. The former fifth overall draft pick is just 24 years old and is worth a price check in dynasty Superflex leagues too.

Carson Wentz

• Major Change: Traded to the Commanders
• Analysis: Two franchises have now given up on Wentz in two consecutive seasons, most recently the Colts who are coached by Frank Reich, Wentz's former offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. Not only has Wentz's play stunk up the joint but reports are Wentz was not heavily liked in the locker room toward the end of his tenure with both the Eagles and the Colts as well. Now, he's with one of the historically worst franchises in NFL history playing for a team starving for pass-catcher talent outside of Terry McLaurin. Wentz would be a stay away for me altogether if not for his extremely affordable price in best ball. Wentz makes sense as a QB3 if the draft doesn't go your way earlier on thanks to his current ADP of QB27 and 205.9 overall according to Underdog Fantasy.

Matt Ryan

• Major Change: Traded to the Colts
• Analysis: Ryan is a respected leader who despite his average numbers in 2021 deserves some benefit of the doubt since Calvin Ridley only played in five games and Kyle Pitts was a rookie. Outside of those two players, Atlanta had very little talent at wide receiver or tight end. Frank Reich and the Colts are betting that their improved environment, including their elite offensive line, will aid Ryan in putting together at least one more solid season and I don't blame them. From a fantasy perspective though, Ryan offers essentially nothing with his legs and outside of Michael Pittman Jr, the Colts are struggling when it comes to pass-catching talent themselves. Ryan makes sense as a QB2/3 in best ball at his current ADP of QB23 and 166.2 overall to provide a reliable floor for your quarterback spot throughout the season, but outside of best ball, I have very little interest in Ryan in redraft or dynasty at this stage of his career.