Fantasy Overview: Week 2

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season has come and gone, and it's on to Week 2. It's important to take note of different storylines and situations, but it's also important not to overreact to some of these circumstances and occurrences. Let's dig deep and try to decipher some clarity as we look back at Week 1 and look ahead to Week 2. 

Chasing points is real, and it's a slippery slope. We've all done it. Player X has a huge week (on your bench), so you do what any self-respecting fantasy enthusiast would do. You start him next week, and he is a disappointment. So now you've lost out on the first week of success, and you followed it up with a dud in the second week. What do you do in the third week? We've all been there. Every single one of us. That's the downside of chasing points. The upside, of course, is racking up the points each week. How can you predict who will have a successful outcome and who won't? It's tricky, but there are signs, triggers, and factors. That's coming. Keep reading...

Don't worry too much about Week 1 failures.

Some teams take time to right the ship, figure out their blocking schemes, find the right mix of personnel to handle an assignment, the right coaching decisions, play the right opponent, get a healthy player back, etc. Take a look at last year, for example...

• The Commanders started 0-1 after a Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. They then won seven of their next eight games en route to a loss to Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. 
• The Saints scored 40+ points in each of their first two games of the 2024 season and then lost their next seven games, finishing with a 5-12 record.
• Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson started the 2024 season with 120 yards rushing and never eclipsed the 100-yard mark again. 
• Last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had two receptions in Week 1. He finished with 100. 
• Amon Ra St. Brown had three receptions for 13 yards in a Lions win over the Rams. He finished with 115 receptions for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns.
• Drake London had two receptions for 15 yards. He finished with 100 receptions for 1,271 yards and 9 touchdowns. 
• Chase Brown had 11 yards rushing in Week 1 on three carries. He finished with 229 carries, 990 yards rushing, and 11 total touchdowns.
• Chuba Hubbard had 14 yards rushing. Derrick Henry, 46 yards. Hubbard finished RB15 in PPR, Henry RB4. 

In reality, Week 1 is one of 18 weeks of the NFL regular season. It stands out more because it's the first game. We're all watching with bated breath, trying to get clarity on situations across the league. Some performances may be a sign of things to come, but others may be an anomaly. It's a small sample size, but we think we may be able to predict the future from one week. There may be something there, but then again, it may be a ruse. How do you know the difference?

There are more wide receivers on the field than players in any other position. This means more receivers have a chance to rank high, but on the other hand, more receivers also have a chance to rank lower. Don't overreact, especially when it comes to wide receivers.

Here is a list of ten factors you should consider to understand a player's fantasy value when looking ahead to the rest of the season. You can use Footballguys as a resource for this information.

1. Observe snap counts and snap percentages. How often were they on the field? Footballguys displays offense and defense snap count numbers every week.
2. Examine the depth chart around them. Is there an opening for this player to thrive moving forward?
3. What are coaches saying about their players? Google Gemini can help with this. Try using this prompt: "What are coaches saying about Keon Coleman's Week 1 performance?" AI for sports is improving, and with the right prompts, it can be super helpful. 
4. Did an injury open the door for more involvement? Footballguys has you covered here, too - Injury Articles
5. Was a particular matchup the main reason for their success or failure?
6. Did their points come in garbage time? Will this be a commonality with his team?
7. Did their production come from one or two big plays?
8. How many red-zone targets did they have? Red Zone Summary By Team
9. What was their target share % compared to the rest of the team? Player targets
10. Was their fantasy production touchdown-dependent, or were they consistent throughout the game?

Week 1 Injury Update

Notable Injuries:

• George Kittle, San Francisco - hamstring injury, out multiple weeks, especially due to his age and the 49ers' propensity to hold players back until they are fully healthy. 
• Xavier Worthy, Kansas City - dislocated shoulder. Possible return in Week 4, but a high percentage of re-injury. 
• Brock Bowers, Las Vegas - minor knee sprain. Should be active in Week 2 with a possible decrease in his level of play and effectiveness.
• Drake London, Atlanta - shoulder AC sprain. Possible return Week 2, but likely Week 3
• Jauan Jennings, San Francisco - shoulder AC sprain or possible dislocation. Week 2 or 3 return. 
• Evan Engram, Denver - calf. Week 4 expected return, to be safe. 
• Brock Purdy, San Francisco - shoulder/toe injury, likely to play through in Week 2 with a possible dip in effectiveness. 
• Matthew Golden, Green Bay - Ankle. Week 2 return (Thursday) likely to play through. 
• Jayden Reed, Green Bay - Jones Fracture. Expected to play through it, high re-injury risk.
• Darnell Mooney, Atlanta - shoulder. Was limited in practice all week and was inactive in Week 1. Week 2 expected return. 
• Isaiah Likely, Baltimore - foot fracture. Injury from late July. Had surgery. Six-week timetable. Week 2 or Week 3 return to play. 
• Christian Kirk, Houston - hamstring. Likely Week 3 return
• Austin Ekeler, Washington - shoulder. Early Thursday game, likely active but affected. 
  
  

Contenders & Pretenders

While it’s only one game, let’s consider who might be worth keeping an eye on this season and who might not live up to the hype.

Contenders

• Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville. The trade of Tank Bigsby to Philadelphia is telling and suggests that Etienne will be the primary ball carrier for the Jaguars. Don't forget, Etienne is one year removed from being the overall RB4 in 2023. His explosion in Week 1 was against the Panthers, who have allowed seven consecutive teams to rush for over 200 yards against them, but there is a belief that Etienne will anchor the backfield that will also include Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr.. 
• Javonte Williams, Dallas. Provided he stays healthy, Williams looks to be the main ball carrier in Dallas. He may not get two touchdowns every week like he lucked into against Philadelphia in Week 1, but he has the most experience and best talent in the Cowboys' backfield. Consider him an RB3 with upside. 
•  Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington. While he may not be a dual-threat, versatile back for Washington, he will earn carries, and so far, he has produced when called upon. If he continues to rack up rushing touchdowns in addition to being a quality rusher, he'll earn his keep as an RB2 this season. 
• Breece Hall, New York Jets. There were whispers that the Jets could have a split backfield with Hall and Braelon Allen. However, if Week 1 is any indication, this is Hall's backfield, and Allen will hold a complementary role. Hall's 19 carries to Allen's 6 is a telling sign. Allen may see more looks on the goal line (he scored in Week 1), but Hall is the primary ball carrier and, by far, the better receiving back. 
• Keon Coleman, Buffalo. This is a crossroads year for Coleman, and so far, he has shown that he not only belongs in the league but also can be the Bills' top receiver, especially for downfield targets where Josh Allen thrives. 
• Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay. Even when Chris Godwin (ankle) returns to action, Egbuka is proving to be worthy of being on the field, making plays. Mike Evans is a future Hall of Fame receiver, but he is in the autumn of his career and will probably see a drop-off in production this year and may not extend his 1,000-yard streak. Egbuka's time is coming for the Buccaneers, and some believe it is already here. 
• Kayshon Boutte, New England. He may not have 100 yards every week, but he is looking like the top receiving option for Drake Maye while Stefon Diggs is falling down a few rungs. DeMario Douglas is also one to watch in New England. If targeting the slot to exploit a defense's weakness is in the game plan that week, then Douglas may have a 6- or 8-catch game, but Boutte is coming into his own and deserves some recognition. 
• Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina. Despite a challenging day from Bryce Young, McMillan looked the part as the team's WR1. He has the ability to make plays, he has excellent hands, and the two are developing good chemistry that will only get stronger. McMillan would've come close to 100 yards if not for a defensive pass interference that took away his chance to make a catch on a long pass. If Young can continue to develop, McMillan will benefit even more. 
• Travis Hunter, Jacksonville. Wide receiver looks to be the position of preference for Hunter if Week 1 is any indication. He was targeted in mostly short-ranged passes in Week 1, but he looks the part and should see some deeper targets in the future. Expect the Jaguars to get him more involved in plays that will allow him to showcase his athleticism after the catch. 
• Tyler Warren, Indianapolis. The Colts looked strong in Week 1 in an easy win against the Dolphins. Warren led the team in targets (9), receptions (7), and nearly receiving yards (76) compared to Michael Pittman Jr's 80. Both Warren and Harold Fannin Jr. became the only tight ends in league history to reach 7 receptions in their first game as a rookie. Others with at least six receptions include Brock Bowers, T.J. Hockenson, Coby Fleener, Jermaine Gresham, and, if you count him as a tight end, Kelvin Benjamin. That's pretty decent company for Warren (and Fannin). He projects to be a key contributor on offense for the Colts all year, and it is evident that Daniel Jones is developing a healthy level of trust with the rookie. 

Pretenders

• Dylan Sampson, Cleveland. Sampson arrived as a capable receiving back out of the backfield, but that may be where the production stops. Quinshon Judkins will soon be the Browns' primary ball carrier, while Sampson will have a role on the team as a pass catcher, albeit with limited responsibilities. Consider him a flex option in PPR leagues, but don't expect him to rack up the points every week, especially when Judkins takes over the backfield. 
• Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota. His best days of being a featured back are likely behind him, especially with Jordan Mason coming on strong as an explosive, capable runner with youth and exuberance on his side. Jones will still see action as a runner and, especially, a receiving back, but his days of dominating the backfield appear to be over. His place in your lineup depends on his ability to score touchdowns, and that may not be as often as you might think. He moves to an RB3 or flex option going forward for now. 
• Zach Charbonnet, Seattle. While Charbonnet is a solid contributor to the Seahawks offense, Ken Walker III is equally as capable. However, a recovery from a foot injury sustained in training camp has limited his effectiveness. It is a long season, and a changing of the guard at running back in Seattle doesn't seem likely. Both can be productive backs, but the likelihood that Charbonnet overtakes the role seems far-fetched. Unless Walker, who has a history of lower-body injuries, has a setback or a new injury, expect an even approach without one being consistently better than the other. 
• J.K. Dobbins, Denver. RJ Harvey is coming, and once he is ready, he should take over the primary duties in the Denver backfield. That may be Week 4, Week 8, or Week 10, but it's coming. Dobbins can be productive, but his time as the main back is dwindling with every success of Harvey's. 
• Quentin Johnston, LA Chargers. There are too many uncertainties with Johnston. Are we to forget the struggles we've seen from him in the past? Is his big Week 1 performance something that will be repeated with Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen on the depth chart with him? Will the Chargers continue to be a high-volume passing team or was that a strategy against the Chiefs? There are too many unknowns to label Johnston as a contending weekly starter on your roster. Could he prove he belongs? Yes. Is it likely? That's not a yes. 
• Deebo Samuel Sr., Washington. Samuel has nearly always performed well when healthy. The problem is, he is rarely fully healthy. He has dealt with numerous hamstring injuries, a foot fracture, plus shoulder, calf, ankle, and oblique injuries in his career. Despite the injuries, in seven years in the league, he has finished in the Top 5 three times. But he has also finished outside of the Top 25 four times. When he is healthy, he deserves a spot in your starting lineup, but how long will he stay healthy? 
• Marquise Brown, Kansas City. Brown is another receiver who plays well when healthy, but he is rarely healthy. He blew up in Week 1 mainly due to the injury to Xavier Worthy. If he's available on the waiver wire, he is worth a grab, but don't rely on him too heavily and don't expect him to be there all year. He may have the worst feet/ankles in the league. In his seven years in the NFL, he has had eight separate injuries of varying severity to his foot or ankle alone. He is a stopgap option until Rashee Rice returns from suspension, and don't rule out an increased role from JuJu Smith-Schuster. He may be good for the next few games, but don't go breaking your bank thinking he will anchor your wide receiver corps. 
• Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh. How many games will the Steelers score 34 points? In a game of that offensive magnitude, Austin was fortunate enough to score a touchdown and gain 70 yards on four catches. What will his stat line be in a typical 17-13 game that we often see from Pittsburgh? He was a nice Week 1 story and he may have some nice plays with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but it doesn't seem like his production is sustainable in a consistent manner going forward. 
• Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland - As previously mentioned, Fannin is one of two rookie tight ends (Warren the other) with seven receptions in his first game. Why is he a pretender? David Njoku is still a part of the Browns, and while we expect Cleveland to use a lot of 12-personnel, it doesn't seem feasible for him to maintain a strong output of production each week. He may have decent games here and there, but consistency is a concern, especially with Njoku still a big part of the offense. Now, if the Browns trade Njoku (Miami, perhaps?), then Fannin takes a giant leap forward and is worthy of consistent expectations.
• Juwan Johnson, New Orleans. The Saints may not be the picture-perfect team in terms of offensive production, but Johnson is expected to be on the field often, earning a fair amount of high-percentage snaps and a fair amount of targets. Having said that, it is not expected that New Orleans will have 46 pass attempts in a game too often. Johnson was one of three Saints with 9+ targets in Week 1. Unless that becomes commonplace for New Orleans, which seems unlikely, Johnson shouldn't see that level of involvement and volume consistently. 
• Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. It is easy to envision a drop-off in Kyle Pitts Sr. We've seen it before. One good week does not necessarily mean a revelation. On the bright side, Pitts was used more as a wide receiver than a tight end in Week 1. Will that continue, or was he picking up the slack due to the absence of Darnell Mooney (shoulder), who may be slated to return to action next week? Pitts is capable of making big plays, and it is clear that Michael Penix Jr. feels comfortable throwing the ball his way. Better days may be ahead for Pitts, but it is too early to elevate him after one positive week. Next week could be promising for Pitts if Drake London (shoulder) is inactive. 
  

A Few Tidbits Worth Noting