Passing Matchups Week 10

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Top 5 Passing Matchups

Pittsburgh vs Detroit

The Steelers no longer expect much from Ben Roethlisberger’s arm. The 18-year veteran wins downfield less and less by the week, relying almost entirely on quick-hitters underneath the defense. Still, he remains capable of strong, volume-driven fantasy days against the league’s weaker secondaries. Roethlisberger has formed a strong rapport with go-to man Diontae Johnson, who’s drawn 32% of targets since JuJu Smith-Schuster was knocked out for the year. Johnson is both a deep threat and a dependable short-game weapon, giving him both a strong floor and ceiling in the fantasy world. Across the field, Chase Claypool has proven wily enough to produce his share of splash plays (11 of 15+ yards) despite Roethlisberger’s erratic arm. The wild card of late has been rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth, who’s worked his way into the weekly gameplan and scored three touchdowns over the past two weeks.

The Lions secondary has been so besieged by injury it’s now down to mixing-and-matching journeymen. The last men standing at cornerback simply aren’t limiting anyone down the field. No team has allowed more yards per attempt than Detroit’s 9.3 – that’s 11% more than the 31^st-place Jaguars. Only garbage-time script has kept any Lions opponents from big fantasy lines, though the likes of Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, and Lamar Jackson have found their way – some without even playing their fourth quarters. The cornerbacks are running on fumes, with two Week 1 starters and a handful of their replacements all on the shelf. Through eight games, the overworked Amani Oruwariye, Jerry Jacobs, and Daryl Worley have combined to allow 7 opposing receivers to put up 95+ yards. The last time a team felt the need to throw in this matchup, the Rams pulled 269 yards and 3 touchdowns out of their top 3 wideouts. There’s little pressure from up front to make things easier, and there’s not much hope on the horizon anywhere in this unit. Ben Roethlisberger may not have to throw much to post a solid (or better) fantasy day.

Buffalo at New York Jets

The Bills swooned overall in their Week 9 loss to the Jaguars, and Josh Allen’s air attack was no exception. Prior to that hiccup, Allen had been leading one of the game’s most potent units, averaging 284 yards with multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 2. He was aided by an extremely favorable schedule over that stretch, but that won’t change this week. For what it’s worth, Allen scorched a better version of this Jets group for 312 and 307 yards last year. The Bills couldn’t break anything downfield Sunday, but Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and even Gabriel Davis are all established splash-play threats. They may even get breakout tight end Dawson Knox (five touchdowns over six games) back into the fold; he was thought of as day-to-day through last week’s practices.

The Jets pass defense may be building to good things, but it’s been thoroughly beatable for most of 2021, and it just got significantly worse. This group has allowed yards per game dating back to Week 4, with even ho-hum opponents like Mac Jones (307 and 2 touchdowns) and Carson Wentz (272 and 3) posting top-notch stat lines. Now they’ll be go forth without star safety Marcus Maye, who faces a long climb back from an Achilles rupture. That will leave the leakier parts of the secondary, like Ashtyn Davis and Brandon Echols, even more exposed to strong passers. They’ve had no answers for playmakers like Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts (9 for 119, 1 touchdown), Tee Higgins (4 for 97), and Michael Pittman (5 for 64 and 1) in recent weeks. Assuming Josh Allen bounces back from last week’s dud, he’ll find holes for his big-bodied and quick-footed weapons all over the secondary.

Tampa Bay at Washington

The Buccaneers come rested from a bye, which is terrible news for Washington’s beleaguered defense. Tom Brady’s supporting cast isn’t at full health, with Antonio Brown out indefinitely and Rob Gronkowski a perpetual question mark. But this arsenal is deep, versatile, and stocked with walking mismatches across the field. Mike Evans remains one of the game’s most dominant one-on-one assignments. His volume may vary, but his red-zone prowess has helped him to score on 8 of 39 receptions thus far. The more intriguing, though, is Godwin, a solid producer who benefits even further when Brown is on the shelf. The playmaker sees major attention as the primary slot man and chain-mover, drawing 30% of Brady’s targets over the past 2 weeks. Evans and Godwin are always capable of maximizing whatever volume they get and can erupt simultaneously. And given the offense’s nature, even side targets like Tyler Johnson and the tight ends boast sneaky week-to-week value.

The Football Team has indeed put together an imposing young pass rush, which harasses quarterbacks at a strong rate. But that havoc hasn’t trickled back to the secondary, which continues to be beaten for hefty numbers on a weekly basis. Thanks to both typical game flow and questionable talent, no team has allowed more net yardage (287 per game) or touchdowns (2.5) through the air. It’s true they’ve faced a Murderer’s Row of quarterbacks to start the year, but it gets no easier Sunday, and there are more than enough holes here for Tom Brady to exploit. Cornerback William Jackson III’s absence hasn’t hurt much, as he’s struggled through his worst season as a pro, but Kendall Fuller and rookie Benjamin St-Juste have underwhelmed in his place. They’ve allowed only a single receiver to reach 100 yards (Keenan Allen, with 100 in Week 1), though it must be noted that 7 others have cleared 80. It doesn’t help that $84 million safety Landon Collins, while still a force against the run, has devolved into a true liability in coverage. Slot men in particular, like Allen, Sterling Shepard, Cole Beasley, and Travis Kelce have posted big days here, picking heavily on Collins and Bobby McCain. They’ll be hard-pressed to keep Chris Godwin in check on the second level. Brady is well-versed in getting the ball out quickly to neutralize a strong rush, which more or less negates what the Football Team does bring to the table. This matchup could erupt right out of the gate.

Las Vegas vs Kansas City

The Raiders have rolled impressively well with a bizarre set of punches to sit at a surprising 5-3. And much of the credit goes to Derek Carr, who’s quietly been one of 2021’s most efficient passers. Throwing to a ragtag receiving corps that’s without its blue-chip prospect, Carr sits top-five in a number of efficiency metrics. Carr doesn’t test downfield often, but spreads the ball well enough to produce when called upon. This attack opened the season on a wild tear and cooled a bit, but has now cleared 295 yards in 3 straight weeks. The top target remains tight end Darren Waller, but there’s an array of situational weapons for Carr to look for downfield. A surprising name to watch is Zay Jones, who’s drawing most of his targets deep (15+ yards) and averaging 19.3 a catch. He looks destined for a lower-volume version of Henry Ruggs’ clear-out role.

The Chiefs defense has predictably looked strong against the league’s weaker quarterbacks, only to be rolled by the better ones on the schedule. They’ve given up just 412 yards over the past 2 weeks, taking on Daniel Jones and Jordan Love as huge favorites. But matchups with Justin Herbert (281 yards, 4 touchdowns), Jalen Hurts (387 and 2), and Josh Allen (315 and 3) have gone to the other end of the spectrum. This remains a talent-starved group that can’t seem to string together two games of decent cornerback play. L’Jarius Sneed and Charvarius Ward have taken big steps back from their strong 2020s, and the safety play remains a concern when asked to help downfield. Juan Thornhill has yet to develop into a dependable centerfielder type, while Daniel Sorensen remains one of the game’s worst cover men. The coverage unit has been shaky enough to waste the efforts of a dynamic pass rush, one that does its best to alter throws and shorten drives. Until the secondary steps up, this will remain a great fantasy matchup with the breakneck flow of your typical Chiefs game.

Indianapolis vs Jacksonville

The Colts seem to have found a sweet spot in their air attack. Quarterback Carson Wentz remains a flawed passer overall but executes coach Frank Reich’s run-oriented scheme well, and he’s strong enough off play-action to make defenses pay from time to time. Last week he carved the Jets for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns, hitting on 22 of his 30 throws. Wentz doesn’t throw to much of a supporting cast, but he’s certainly built a rapport with Michael Pittman, who sits firmly in the driver’s seat as the go-to option. The gifted Pittman has commanded 23% of team targets, topping 60 yards in 6 of his 9 games. Just as importantly, he’s already drawn 10 red-zone targets on the year, helping him to 6 touchdowns thus far. Pittman is a matchup nightmare for the undermanned Jaguars, and Reich will put him in position to win both down the field and underneath. Zach Pascal is another favorite option near the goal line; he likely carries more fantasy value at this point than T.Y. Hilton, who may or may not clear the concussion protocol for this weekend.

The Jaguars defense showed well in last week’s improbable upset of the Bills, but it’s unlikely such a weak unit has been cured overnight. Their prior 7 opponents completed a stunning 74% of their throws, averaged 8.9 yards per attempt, and threw 11 touchdowns to just 2 picks. Few defenses are more in need of a talent infusion than this one, which has whiffed on a number of premium picks and traded away some key ones. For example: Shaquill Griffin and Nevin Lawson have been among the NFL’s worst cover men for several years running, yet both play key roles here in Jacksonville. Griffin, in fact, is an every-down starter. Rookie Tyson Campbell has been thrust into heavy action both inside and outside, and he hasn’t responded well himself. It’s a group that begs for strong safety help, but the in-house options have disappointed. Overall, this remains a deeply attractive fantasy matchup, one that elevates its opponent just by popping up on the schedule. They’ll be hard-pressed to contain Colts go-to man Michael Pittman, who has found his share of cracks in much better secondaries than this one.

Bottom 5 Passing Matchups

NY Jets vs Buffalo

The Jets still aren’t sure whether they’ll have rookie Zach Wilson back by Sunday. But whether it’s Wilson, Mike White, or Josh Johnson under center, this will be a volume-driven attack seeking out efficiency against the league’s stingiest defense. Of last Thursday’s eruption for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns, 392 and 3 came only after the Jets fell behind two scores. That’s lightning that doesn’t strike back-to-back often, especially with shaky rookies and/or deep reserves under center. If nothing else, there has been big-play splash from youngsters Elijah Moore and Michael Carter, and consistency from veterans Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder. But Davis (hip) may not be ready in time for the game, and his absence tends to turn this into a quick, low-reward game of checkdown. It’s far too early to judge this unit long-term, but it would be foolhardy for fantasy players to roll the dice on it this week.

The Bills’ outstanding secondary has been a difference-maker in just about every game thus far – even in last week’s shocking loss to the Jaguars. Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence found nowhere to go for big plays last Sunday, making for the eighth straight opponent to land below 275 passing yards. (The only one to finish above 220 was Patrick Mahomes II, throwing the ball 54 times in a blowout.) This unit is stacked with talent on the back end, with two deserving All-Pro candidates and a pair of rising stars that throttle opposing pass games. Cornerback Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer lead the way: White by shutting down half the field most weeks, and Poyer by breaking up or diverting throws into deep zones. Cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace are enjoying breakouts across from White, and overall it’s hard to find anything to exploit here. It’s even harder to imagine the Jets’ quarterback mess breaking the mold Sunday.

Minnesota at L.A. Chargers

The Vikings have now endured back-to-back weak efforts from Kirk Cousins and the passing game. Over the past two weeks, Cousins has dropped from 72% completions and 295 yards per game to 63% and just 186. There’s ample talent on the outsides, with Justin Jefferson (70 yards a game) and Adam Thielen (27 touchdowns on his last 149 catches) still good for one of the game’s best duos. But there’s little dynamism anywhere else, with slot man K.J. Osborn averaging just 31 yards since Week 3. Tight end Tyler Conklin and the running backs are sporadic contributors, but this is a shallow attack overall, one that’s hard to trust even in neutral matchups.

The Chargers continue to serve as one of the NFL’s best examples of a “funnel” defense. This defense is built to pressure the pass and makes for a much more inviting target on the ground. As a result, they’ve faced the league’s second-fewest pass attempts thus far, and the second-fewest net yards. Of course, it helps to boast such an impressive batch of talent on all levels of the field. It’s a deep and talented secondary, one that stifled Jalen Hurts and the Eagles despite being without two starting cornerbacks. The team would love to get Michael Davis and Asante Samuel back by Sunday afternoon, though Tevaughn Campbell and Chris Harris make for solid stand-ins. Overall, it’s easy to believe in a unit this deep that also features certain All-Pro Derwin James on the back end. And with one of the league’s stiffest pass rushes up front, life is made even easier on the secondary, and opposing passers are hard-pressed to find big plays.

Carolina at Arizona

The Panthers aren’t yet sure whether Sam Darnold will be under center Sunday. Darnold is nursing a troublesome shoulder injury, but even if healthy simply doesn’t look like the answer in Carolina. His 2021 has been a tale of two passers: 8.1 yards per throw and 297 a game through the first 4 weeks, but just 5.0 and 159 since. Over these past 5 weeks he’s thrown just 2 touchdowns to 8 interceptions and can’t have more than a fingertip-hold on the starting job. Backup P.J. Walker is no improvement, and together they’ve dealt a death blow to the values of D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall. All have game-breaking potential, and Moore was outstanding during the season’s first month (8 catches and 100 yards a game). But for the near future, only a full-strength Christian McCaffrey can be counted on from this unit. A date with the Cardinals makes the decisions even easier.

The Cardinals are 8-1 thanks in part to coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, but also to Vance Joseph’s smothering defense. Joseph has dialed up the aggressiveness, blitzing heavily from all over the formation and hitting home more often than not. Chandler Jones and Markus Golden seemingly trade off dominant days in the pocket, and this group is deep enough to paper over the loss of J.J. Watt. That volatile style wouldn’t work without dependable cornerback play, and Joseph has pulled outstanding work from an unheralded pair of starters. Third-year breakout Byron Murphy and ex-Falcon Robert Alford have consistently locked down even strong wideouts like Cooper Kupp (just 64 yards on 13 targets), Brandin Cooks (21 on 7), and Deebo Samuel twice (121 on 18). It helps that playmaking safety Budda Baker has continued to hone his coverage skills – he broke up a pass and intercepted another in last week’s win. Overall, this dominant group has only allowed 2 opponents to top 250 yards thus far, and both needed hefty garbage-time volume to do it. It’s unwise to expect either Panthers passer to join the club.

Philadelphia at Denver

The Eagles, still unconvinced of Jalen Hurts’ franchise status, continue to put very little on his shoulders when it’s not necessary. Hurts has thrown just 31 passes over the past 2 weeks, one a blowout win and the other a close game throughout. It’s hard to blame coach Nick Sirianni too much, as Hurts continues to lack touch when throwing more than a few yards downfield. But at some point, Sirianni will need to either tailor the offense to Hurts’ dynamic chaos or move on. Wideouts DeVonta Smith and Quez Watkins and tight end Dallas Goedert produce on and off, but lack consistency for fantasy purposes. Smith shows great promise as a playmaker, but mixes in his share of rookie miscues and disappearing acts along the way. Overall, while Hurts boasts big fantasy value with his legs, it’s hard to depend on his weaponry in tough matchups like this one.

The Broncos dealt away franchise cornerstone Von Miller last week, and the football world held its breath to see how the defense would react. Their response was to thoroughly dominate Dak Prescott and his many weapons, allowing Dallas just 232 yards over 41 dropbacks in the crushing win. (In fact, 130 of those came after the Broncos had built a 30-0 lead.) Even with Miller gone and Bradley Chubb on the shelf, this deep front seven harassed Prescott and forced errant throws all day. Rookie Jonathon Cooper has made a name for himself as the top edge rusher for the time being; he recorded seven pressures and two sacks. Overall, Broncos opponents are completing a league-low 57% of their throws and posting an 81.5 rating, third-lowest in football. And a big reason for that has been their star-studded secondary’s turnaround over the past few weeks. Cornerbacks Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby, and rookie Patrick Surtain are all rounding nicely into midseason form, as seen Sunday when they held CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper to just 60 yards over 14 targets. Safety Justin Simmons continues to provide strong playmaking help behind them. This isn’t a bulletproof unit, but it’s a mega-talented one capable of stifling an offense on any given week.

Cleveland at New England

The Browns continue to ask relatively little of Baker Mayfield, and to his credit he’s made more big plays than bad ones of late. Over the past 4 weeks he’s posted 8.8 yards per throw, with 6 touchdowns to just 1 pick. Volume will always be a concern in this run-oriented attack, but it’s encouraging to see Mayfield succeed when called upon. He helped sew up last week’s win with a handful of impressive strikes deep and at the sidelines. But Mayfield has been hit-or-miss when pressed to be the center of the action, which could be the case Sunday if Nick Chubb (COVID-positive) is forced to sit. He also lacks a go-to playmaker, though the speedy Donovan Peoples-Jones may be breaking out. The release of Odell Beckham Jr reinforces that the team isn’t about to put more and more onto Mayfield’s shoulders, so his fantasy ceiling is always low. A tough road matchup like this one makes this a unit to expressly avoid.

The Patriots (and coach Bill Belichick) are shrewd enough to realize their offense, in its current state, won’t be dragging the team to the playoffs. Accordingly, they’re again pinning their hopes on a defense that has shut down virtually all comers here in 2021. Apart from a Dak Prescott overtime eruption and a bizarre career day from Houston’s Davis Mills, this group has been as dominant as ever thus far, even with key injuries and major turnover in the secondary. The Patriots’ other 7 opponents found little daylight, managing just 6.2 yards per attempt and 208 per game. That included statement-making performances against MVP candidates Tom Brady (just 269 scoreless yards on 43 attempts) and Justin Herbert (223 on 35, with 2 touchdowns and 2 picks). Cornerback J.C. Jackson has played a huge role in the team’s recent performances. He’s rapidly filling Stephon Gilmore’s shoes as the shutdown piece of Belichick’s puzzle on the back end. And the team looks to have struck gold in the undrafted Myles Bryant, who’s been outstanding in place of Jonathan Jones. They’d like more consistent safety play, but this is a deep, versatile unit capable of providing coverage help from everywhere. The Browns’ vanilla air attack may not have the weaponry to poke enough holes in it.