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July’s almost here, which means Training Camps are so close you can already hear the beat reporters arguing over backup reps. While most of your league is still drafting off last year’s vibes, you’re here. And getting sharper while they’re getting sunburned.
We’ve got a stacked lineup today as we take a deep dive into the Patriots. Who to draft, who to dodge, and who might surprise. Then we look at NFFC High-Stakes Average Draft Position movement so you can see what the sharpest drafters are doing. And IDP folks, you know we’ve got love for you. And fresh insight to back it up.
Plus Gary Davenport is back with an update to his killer Draft Strategy Guide. In this one,he explains how to navigate the always-tricky tight end landscape. It’s must-read stuff.
And as always, we've got the News and Notes to keep your edge sharp and your group chat takes hotter.
New England Patriots Fantasy Overview - Our Footballguys Staff evaluates the Patriots from every angle — including Drake Maye, Hunter Henry, and IDP standouts like Harold Landry III.
NFL Team-By-Team Fantasy Overviews – Our Footballguys Staff keeps rolling out team previews — with fresh insights on projections, vibes, and fantasy outlooks.
Footballguys Classic Drafting Apps – Bruce Henderson updates our full suite of classic tools – from Draft Dominator to the VBD Excel spreadsheet — just in time for draft season.
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For years, tight end has been arguably the trickiest position for fantasy managers--a spot fraught with perils and pitfalls.
For starters, it is easily the shallowest position in fantasy football. Take a gander at the Top 12 tight ends in the fine rankings here at Footballguys. Now think about how many of those players you'd be comfortable starting week in and week out.
That number ain't 12, kids.
It's not just a matter of the lack of depth, either. In years past, there have been tight ends like Kansas City's Travis Kelce--players who didn't just outscore the other tight ends but did so by such a staggering margin that they legitimately earned Round 1 consideration.
Back in the long-ago days of 2022, Kelce outscored the No. 2 tight end (Detroit's T.J. Hockenson) by over 100 PPR points. Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints was similarly dominant in 2013. Fantasy drafters had to pay a hefty price for that gaudy production, but doing so could offer a league-winning edge at the position over lower-end weekly starters.
Now, however, the landscape has changed at the position. Kelce done got old, passing the torch to youngsters like Brock Bowers of the Raiders and Arizona's Trey McBride as the top options available in fantasy drafts. If anything, the position is even more perilous than ever before. But as with all of my other fantasy draft strategy guides this year at Footballguys, there are a number of paths managers can take on draft day--each with its own pluses and minuses.
Tight End Draft Strategies
Door No. 1: The Big Guns
This strategy isn't especially difficult to explain. It's essentially a watered-down version of taking Kelce in Round 1 in recent years. Drafters pay retail for the likes of Bowers (FBG ADP: 16) or McBride (FBG ADP: 23), sit back and enjoy as those tight ends dominate all season long.
Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne is expected to remain the team's top running back, according to Demetrius Harvey of Jacksonville.com.
Our view: Harvey also wrote that we shouldn't be surprised if Etienne "takes a bit of a backseat as a rusher as the team's running game and his receiving ability evolve". There has been talk that Etienne will be used more in space, which suits his skillset and traits better than running between the tackles. Etienne plummeting out of the top 100 overall in the latest Footballguys ADP may be an overreaction, but if this is a committee that includes roles for Tank Bigbsy and fourth round pick Bhayshul Tuten, it's also possible that no Jaguars running back will be consistent this season.
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray anticipates running more often than he has in recent seasons in 2025, according to Johnny Venerable of the PHNX Cardinals podcast. '(Kyler Murray) told us on our show a month ago ... He wants to run more, will run more this year. Take that for what it's worth. ... I think his numbers will be closer to that 2020 season - both passing and rushing. I don't know if he'll ever get back to those rushing yards (819), but a good year for Kyler on the ground (in 2025) would 500-plus yards and five-plus touchdowns,' Venerable said.
Our view: Murray has said that his knee was bothering him at times last year even though it was almost two years removed from a 2022 ACL tear. He has been disappointing in fantasy leagues, but his ADP still reflects his previous demonstrated upside. A return to form as a runner would raise Murray's weekly ceiling and make his floor games and inconsistencies as a passer more tolerable.
Seattle Seahawks TE Elijah Arroyo has a good chance to see a solid amount of playing time even if he is not the starter because the team likely will use multiple tight end sets a good amount of time, in the opinion of Seahawks.com's John Boyle.
Our view: Arroyo is an athletic wonder, but inexperienced, so his impact could be limited this year. He is a promising player to stash in dynasty leagues after the possibility was raised by new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and head coach Mike MacDonald that Arroyo could even be part of the plan to replace DK Metcalf at the "X" outside wide receiver position as one of the few big-bodied passcatchers on the roster.
Seattle Seahawks WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling appears to be the leading candidate for the No. 3 wide receiver job entering training camp but may be push for the job by WRs Jake Bobo and Tory Horton during camp, in the opinion of Seahawks.com's John Boyle.
Our view: Valdes-Scantling had a brief revival in New Orleans last year as the primary deep threat after Rashid Shaheed went down. He got $3 million guaranteed on a one-year deal from the Seahawks, so they clearly see a role for him, but he'll have to hold off the third-year UDFA Bobo and this year's fifth round pick Horton. Valdes-Scantling is only of interest in very deep best ball and dynasty leagues, but he could help the offense function better if he forces opposing defenses to account for his long speed.
Cleveland Browns RB Dylan Sampson worked as both a running back and a receiver during minicamp, according to running backs coach Duce Staley. 'Dylan is able to go play in the slot and also he's able to go and play on third down and maybe sprinkle in a little second down,' Staley said.
Our view: The Browns have Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong returning from last year's team, but Sampson could have more to offer the offense if he shows he is ready for passing down responsibilities. He's a true change of pace from the presumed starter Quinshon Judkins, who was taken with the 36th pick in April. Sampson probably doesn't have much value in redraft leagues this year, but if he can get on the field ahead of Ford and Strong, it will be a great sign for his lasting value in dynasty leagues.
San Francisco 49ers WR Isaiah Neyor - an undrafted free agent this spring - has caught the eye of teammate George Kittle with his freakish athleticism, according to comments he made recently on the 'Bussin' With The Boys' podcast.'I like him. He's a freak. ... I watched him, he was running a route and he got like 9 1/2 yards in two strides. ... It was insane. We watched it like 10 times in the tight end room. We were like 'How is he doing this?'' Kittle said.
Our view: Neyor went undrafted, but he has the size/speed/athleticism of a starting NFL wide receiver. He's only of interest right now in deep dynasty leagues, but if he makes the 53 man roster out of training camp, it will be time to put Neyor on our radar in all dynasty leagues.
New York Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. said he is hoping to rush for 1,500 yards this upcoming season.
Our view: Tracy will have to hold onto the ball after fumble problems derailed an otherwise very successful rookie year that saw Tracy overtake Devin Singletary in the Giants backfield. The team drafted Cam Skattebo in the fourth round, who could be a strong alternative if Tracy has another bout of fumblitis. Skattebo has had fumble issues of his own in college, so there's a wide range of outcomes of how this backfield will shake out. The relatively low current ADP of both Tracy and Skattebo in the 8th-9th round range accurately reflects the uncertainty.
Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has been working with head coach Dan Quinn to make sure opposing defenses aren't able to key in on any of Daniels' tendencies.
Our view: Daniels was hyperefficient as a passer last year, especially in the short passing game, so opposing defenses will probably try to force him to hold the ball longer, although he was also effective on extended plays. He can be even better year two, as his performance slumped when he was banged up for a multi-game stretch in the middle of the season. The team also added a top-notch left tackle in Laremy Tunsil and a quality run after catch veteran in Deebo Samuel. Daniels is going off of the board as QB3 after Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, per Footballguys ADP.
Kansas City Chiefs first-round pick OT Josh Simmons was compared to future Hall of Fame OT Trent Williams by fellow Future Hall of Fame C Jason Kelce. 'I've watched a lot of these linemen coming out (of college) the last few years,' said Kelce, who was a six-time All-Pro center with Philly. 'This kid, I mean, he is the closest thing I've seen to like a Trent Williams... like that next level strength and athleticism. The only reason he fell to you guys is because of that injury.'
Our view: Simmons was a perfect pick for the Chiefs. Some considered him the best offensive tackle in this year's class, but a torn patellar tendon in October dropped him down the board. Kansas City can be patient with his recovery after signing Jaylon Moore away from the 49ers in free agency. If the Chiefs get a long term starting left tackle at the 31st pick, it will be a coup and the kind of move that keeps the dynasty alive.
San Francisco 49ers CB Deommodore Lenoir was arrested in Los Angeles for obstruction of justice on Thursday, June 26. According to multiple reports, police approached a group of people and saw a gun in a parked car. When the driver was asked to hand his keys over, he threw the keys to Lenoir, who refused to allow the officers to have access to the car.
Our view: While this is a minor incident and probably would not result in a significant suspension, it is still worth noting after the 49ers and Lenoir agreed on a five-year, $92 million deal this offseason. He's been a quality starter for them and will be their #1 corner after Charvarius Ward signed with Indianapolis this offseason.
Cleveland Browns RB Jerome Ford will be a 'nice complement' to RB Quinshon Judkins and RB Dylan Sampson, according to Dan Labbe of The Cleveland Plain Dealer.
Our view: Ford took a pay cut to $1.75 million, about half of what he was originally due on the last year of his rookie contract after a performance-based escalator kicked in. That lower number is fully guaranteed, so Ford is very likely to make the team and have a change of pace and passing down role. He probably won't matter to us in redraft leagues unless Judkins goes down.
Thanks for spending a little of your weekend with us. We know this time of year can feel like the quiet before the fantasy storm, but every edge you gain now pays off when the draft clock’s ticking.
Whether you’re grinding ADP trends, tinkering with your tiers, or just quietly judging your league mates’ offseason moves (we see you), we’re glad to be along for the ride with you.
Rest up, enjoy the weekend, and we’ll be back tomorrow with more.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
Joe Bryant
Guide
Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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We Help You Win More At Fantasy Football
We help you win more at Fantasy Football. Join 700,000+ others who are dominating their fantasy football leagues on our 100% FREE Daily Update newsletter