February is when you can tell who the real dynasty diehards are. Early startups are fun and challenging because you have to take calculated risks based on how you envision free agency and the draft playing out. It is also a time where it is possible to get some nice value in trades if you can get ahead of the pack on player value before everything really settles in early in the summer. This article will feature our first deeper dive into the 2019 rookie class and the trade value associated with each pick.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering.
Timing Note: New Dynasty Trade Value Chart articles will appear on the first Tuesday of every month.
Rookie Pick Value
The chart below comes with a few caveats worth keeping in mind:
- The trade values are attached to the picks themselves and not the players named. The only reason player names are listed is to add some context of the players potentially available with these selections.
- It is way too early in the process (especially for me) to have strong opinions on how these guys match up against each other. This is especially true at a position like wide receiver where it would not be at all surprising to see any of the top six or seven guys eventually emerge as the consensus #1.
- Similarly, it must be noted that the value comps in the far right column are comparisons only to dynasty trade value and not playing style.
|
Pick |
Player, Position, and School |
Trade Value |
Dynasty Value Comps |
|
1.01 |
Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama |
24 |
|
|
1.02 |
Hakeem Butler, WR Iowa State |
20 |
|
|
1.03 |
D.K. Metcalf, WR Mississippi |
18 |
Robert Woods, D.J. Moore |
|
1.04 |
N'Keal Harry, WR Arizona State |
17 |
D.J. Moore, A.J. Green |
|
1.05 |
Kelvin Harmon, WR North Carolina State |
16 |
Allen Robinson, Calvin Ridley |
|
1.06 |
David Montgomery, RB Iowa State |
15 |
|
|
1.07 |
Devin Singletary, RB Florida Atlantic |
14 |
|
|
1.08 |
A.J. Brown, WR Mississippi |
13 |
|
|
1.09 |
Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma |
11 |
|
|
1.10 |
TJ Hockenson, TE Iowa |
10 |
|
|
1.11 |
Noah Fant, TE Iowa |
9 |
|
|
1.12 |
Darrell Henderson, RB Memphis |
8 |
|
|
2.01 |
JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Stanford |
7 |
Anthony Miller, Will Fuller |
|
2.02 |
Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma |
6 |
|
|
2.03 |
Damien Harris, RB Alabama |
6 |
Mark Ingram, Royce Freeman |
|
2.04 |
Deebo Samuel, WR South Carolina |
6 |
Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones |
|
2.05 |
Riley Ridley, WR Georgia |
5 |
Daesean Hamilton, Robby Anderson |
|
2.06 |
Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama |
5 |
|
|
2.07 |
Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State |
4 |
|
|
2.08 |
Rodney Anderson, RB Oklahoma |
4 |
|
|
2.09 |
Trayveon Williams, RB Texas A&M |
4 |
Ronald Jones, Nyheim Hines |
|
2.10 |
Parris Campbell, WR Ohio State |
4 |
|
|
2.11 |
Emanuel Hall, WR Missouri |
4 |
|
|
2.12 |
Mecole Hardman, WR Georgia |
4 |
Is there a 1.01 Premium and could Josh Jacobs emerge as the top guy?
The consensus top rookies in the last four draft classes (Todd Gurley (2015), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Leonard Fournette (2017), and Saquon Barkley (2018)) were all running backs. It is possible the streak could end this year — especially because it is a very down class at the position. Plus, nearly every early rookie mock draft has one of the wide receivers going 1.01. However, the bet here is at least one running back generates enough excitement over once we see where everyone lands to emerge as the consensus 1.01. The immediate fantasy impact the 2017 and 2018 running backs have had has dramatically swung the pendulum from “RB Zero” to the point where young running backs now dominate the early rounds of dynasty startup drafts. While we almost certainly won’t see the huge 1.01 values we saw in 2016 or 2018, if a top back lands in an exciting spot, we could see the dynasty trade value of the 1.01 rocket up by April.
There are a few backs with the potential to emerge as the 1.01 but the most likely looks to be Josh Jacobs. He has the type of well-rounded skillset (power, speed, receiving ability, and elusiveness) that could make him a fantasy star in PPR leagues. Jacobs has started to generate plenty of first-round hype as well from some of the top names in the scouting industry. Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network) has Jacobs listed as the #6 overall prospect in his initial Top 50 and tabbed him as a Top-5 pick in his first mock draft. Matt Waldman is a fan and provides a great breakdown in this short video scouting report. Dane Brugler (The Athletic) ranks Jacobs as his top back and concludes his scouting report ($) by saying Jacobs has “the explosive and versatile traits to be a three-down feature weapon in the NFL with Pro Bowl upside.”
Based upon the ADP in startups and some recent trades involving the 1.01, dynasty players aren’t putting a big premium on the 1.01. Maybe they should be. If so, there is a potential buy-low window in early startups and leagues with active pre-draft trading.
The Strength of the 2019 Rookie Class
There is an understandable lack of excitement over the 2019 rookie class in general. It comes sandwiched between a loaded 2018 class and a potentially loaded 2020 class. That being said, there are still some very good prospects in this class.
The sheer number of wide receivers with first-round or early second-round hype stands out. This depth should make the mid-late first-round rookie picks just as valuable as they were in last season’s excellent class.
Know your league settings and adjust accordingly
One of the main reasons for the inclusion of some dynasty value comps in the rookie pick value chart above was to hopefully make it easier to adjust the general values to the specifics of your own dynasty league format.
For example, there should be even more of a premium on late first round picks in Tight End-Premium scoring leagues. It is easy to get excited about some of the top tight end prospects. Comparisons between TJ Hockenson and George Kittle are going to be ubiquitous and there are enough real similarities to make the comparison valid. With Kittle’s dynasty value way up, Hockenson is likely to emerge as a first-round rookie pick and maybe even a popular mid-1st round rookie pick in tight-end premium leagues. Noah Fant and Irv Smith also have the potential to emerge as coveted rookies in tight-end premium leagues.
Similarly, there are three or four quarterbacks consistently being mocked in the first round of the NFL Draft (Dwayne Haskins, Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, and Daniel Jones). Murray is especially interesting for fantasy purposes if he makes his intentions to pursue the NFL over baseball clear. He has legitimate-4.40 speed that gives him massive fantasy upside.
Quarterback
|
Rank |
Pos |
Player |
Value |
|
1 |
QB |
25 |
|
|
2 |
QB |
10 |
|
|
3 |
QB |
10 |
|
|
4 |
QB |
8 |
|
|
5 |
QB |
7 |
|
|
6 |
QB |
6 |
|
|
7 |
QB |
6 |
|
|
8 |
QB |
6 |
|
|
9 |
QB |
5 |
|
|
10 |
QB |
4 |
|
|
11 |
QB |
Mitchell Trubisky |
4 |
|
12 |
QB |
4 |
|
|
13 |
QB |
4 |
|
|
14 |
QB |
4 |
|
|
15 |
QB |
4 |
|
|
16 |
QB |
4 |
|
|
17 |
QB |
3 |
|
|
18 |
QB |
3 |
|
|
19 |
QB |
3 |
|
|
20 |
QB |
3 |
|
|
21 |
QB |
3 |
|
|
22 |
QB |
3 |
|
|
23 |
QB |
2 |
|
|
24 |
QB |
2 |
|
|
25 |
QB |
2 |
|
|
26 |
QB |
2 |
|
|
27 |
QB |
2 |
|
|
28 |
QB |
1 |
|
|
29 |
QB |
1 |
|
|
30 |
QB |
1 |
|
|
31 |
QB |
1 |
|
|
32 |
QB |
1 |
Value Notes
-Patrick Mahomes II is lapping the field in terms of his overall dynasty value. He is the only quarterback right now who can command significant trade value in one-quarterback leagues.
-Aside from Mahomes, Baker Mayfield may be the hottest commodity at the position currently. Especially in two-quarterback leagues, Mayfield’s youth and potential are extremely attractive. If the Cleveland Browns add a talented WR1 over the offseason, it could push Mayfield’s value even higher. Possibly all the way to QB2.
-Sam Darnold is another player who will see his value impacted by offseason player movement. Darnold showed enough flashes as a 21-year old rookie that excitement will build about his future if the New York Jets can add some pieces around him. An early-round wide receiver and a top pass-catching running back (Le’Veon Bell perhaps) would provide a significant value boost for Darnold.
Running Back
|
Rank |
Pos |
Player |
Value |
|
1 |
RB |
62 |
|
|
2 |
RB |
55 |
|
|
3 |
RB |
55 |
|
|
4 |
RB |
52 |
|
|
5 |
RB |
50 |
|
|
6 |
RB |
33 |
|
|
7 |
RB |
32 |
|
|
8 |
RB |
Melvin Gordon |
32 |
|
9 |
RB |
24 |
|
|
10 |
RB |
24 |
|
|
11 |
RB |
24 |
|
|
12 |
RB |
24 |
|
|
13 |
RB |
24 |
|
|
14 |
RB |
20 |
|
|
15 |
RB |
19 |
|
|
16 |
RB |
18 |
|
|
17 |
RB |
16 |
|
|
18 |
RB |
14 |
|
|
19 |
RB |
14 |
|
|
20 |
RB |
13 |
|
|
21 |
RB |
12 |
|
|
22 |
RB |
12 |
|
|
23 |
RB |
11 |
|
|
24 |
RB |
10 |
|
|
25 |
RB |
9 |
|
|
26 |
RB |
8 |
|
|
27 |
RB |
8 |
|
|
28 |
RB |
8 |
|
|
29 |
RB |
7 |
|
|
30 |
RB |
7 |
|
|
31 |
RB |
7 |
|
|
32 |
RB |
Mark Ingram |
6 |
|
33 |
RB |
6 |
|
|
34 |
RB |
5 |
|
|
35 |
RB |
5 |
|
|
36 |
RB |
4 |
|
|
37 |
RB |
Ronald Jones |
4 |
|
38 |
RB |
4 |
|
|
39 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
40 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
41 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
42 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
43 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
44 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
45 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
46 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
47 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
48 |
RB |
3 |
|
|
49 |
RB |
DOnta Foreman |
3 |
|
50 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
51 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
52 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
53 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
54 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
55 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
56 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
57 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
58 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
59 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
60 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
61 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
62 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
63 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
64 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
65 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
66 |
RB |
2 |
|
|
67 |
RB |
1 |
|
|
68 |
RB |
1 |
|
|
69 |
RB |
1 |
|
|
70 |
RB |
1 |
|
|
71 |
RB |
1 |
|
|
72 |
RB |
1 |
|
|
73 |
RB |
1 |
|
|
74 |
RB |
1 |
|
|
75 |
RB |
John Kelly |
1 |
Value Notes
-The gap between Saquon Barkley and #2 has widened with Todd Gurley’s late-season struggles. It makes sense when you consider the fact Barkley is the early 1.01 in 2019 best ball drafts and that he doesn’t turn 22-years old until later in February. Barkley (or the 1.01 pick in startups) costs a king’s ransom to trade for.
-Speaking of Todd Gurley, his dynasty trade values feels like it is in a bit of limbo. His postseason swoon would have made sense if reports came out after the Super Bowl that he was playing through a knee injury. Instead, Gurley and Rams coaches insisted he was healthy. If true, the 50/50 timeshare throughout the playoffs with street free agent C.J. Anderson makes no sense whatsoever. The weird situation adds uncertainty, which negatively impacts his value. In short, if you want to trade Todd Gurley today, you will get a weaker return than you would have a few weeks ago.
-People are really excited about Nick Chubb. Based upon very early draft results, it looks like he is going to be a first-round pick in both redraft leagues and dynasty startups this offseason. It is easy to get excited about the future of the Browns offense and Chubb was excellent down the stretch, so his ascension makes sense. It feels like Chubb, Melvin Gordon, and Joe Mixon have separated into their own three-man tier. There is still a gap between Chubb/Gordon/Mixon and Alvin Kamara at RB5, but there is now also a gap between that trio and the next tier (David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, etc.).
-Damien Williams and Kareem Hunt are the two biggest wild cards at the running back position. Williams is being drafted in the 2nd round of early best ball drafts and looks like the odds-on favorite to bet the go-to guy for the Chiefs next year. There have been some positive reports about Hunt being picked up by someone for 2019 (the Bears?) and being eligible to play sometime early next season. His value has rebounded since the January update, though it is still far below where it was last offseason.
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