Sunday Morning Update
Check Back In Around 9:30 AM EST for any updates to the Primary Cash Lineup or any updated thoughts on the slate.
Week 3 Recap- Loss, Season Record 1-2
Week 3 is frustrating with a lot of questions to be answered. A number of you have asked about the trains which seem to be taking over the 50/50 single entry contests. We’ll address those in a later section, but for now, let’s take a look at where things went right and where things went wrong. Week 4 is going to be a lot of pressure. There is a reason most aren’t transparent when it comes to their results. It’s not that they’re bad players, it is that they don’t want to deal with the criticism and the pressure on a week-to-week basis. It’s tiring, can be frustrating, but it’s something I thrive on. I’ve always been the type of person who if there is a final shot in a game, even if I’m not the best player, want to take that shot.
There were two killers of this lineup.
Bijan Robinson was the first. If you could have projected a 30-0 victory for Carolina over Atlanta, you could have made a lot of money this past weekend, but instead it was a shock to almost everyone. Robinson played well, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, having 72 yards, and catching 5 passes, it was just that he didn’t see enough volume to justify the price, when Christian McCaffrey had 19 FanDuel points.
The second killer of this lineup was the Raiders defense. This past weekend, there were 13 defenses that scored 10 or more FanDuel points across all the slates. To play a defense that scored -1 is just going to be such a disadvantage to start the week.
CeeDee Lamb getting hurt on one of the first plays of the day hurt, but he was in the 70%+ rostered range, so that one didn’t feel nearly as bad as it otherwise should have. I guess the 30% that didn’t play him had a massive advantage over those that did as well.
- QB Marcus Mariota, WAS, $6,000
- RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $9,500
- RB Jordan Mason, MIN, $5,800
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,800
- WR CeeDee Lamb, Dal, $8,800
- WR Rome Odunze, CHI, $6,400
- TE Tyler Warren, IND, $5,600
- Flex RB Ken Walker III, SEA, $6,600
- TD Las Vegas, $3,100
Addressing the Trains
There was a lot of frustration this past weekend given the number of trainst hat we’ve seen and questioning whether it is still worth playing the single entry 50/50’s each week. The last two weeks those rosters have been great which leads to the frustration of those playing against them.
First and foremost, this article has always been about giving people the ability to consistently compete in cash game lineups. There’s not a magic bullet that I have that guarantees that it will be profitable on a year-to-year basis. What I will say is that this is year 10 of doing this article on Footballguys or if anyone remembers the blog days on blogspot.com. In those nine seasons, only two have been losing years, and only one has been sub 50%. However, the key here is that this should be a venture you’re undertaking for enjoyment and to enhance your gaming experience.
Most of you who have interacted with me know that this is a second job at Footballguys and more of a passion project than anything else. The reason I have been with Footballguys for 11 years is that I absolutely love the analytics of trying to outsmart and build better lineups than some of the best players in the world.
My biggest advice to anyone is that if you’re not having fun anymore, or if you’re not enjoying the competition, to consider taking a break. At Footballguys, we’re extremely cautious about playing DFS responsibly and that’s something that I myself have struggled with at times over the 16 seasons that I’ve played DFS to the point where I only play football now after playing every sport every day for eight straight years.
Let’s start by addressing where these trains are coming from.
The trains are coming from some of the highest priced DFS subscription sites. I’m not going to advertise competitors, but these are sites that typically will cost between $300 and $400 per year for NFL content. If you’re going to subscribe to a site that is that expensive, you’re going to need to play a massive amount of volume in order to justify the cost of that site. We also have FanDuel not following their own rules. We have teams of DFS players also plaing the same lineup to bypass the single-entry rule. This has been something that has happened forever, it's just become more exploited by some of these people that subscribe to these larger sites.
Do I think the trains are the right approach?
I don’t blame the sites that are putting out the trains. I’ve done some studies, and over the last several seasons, the trains have not been profitable. The reason for this is somewhat simple. The amount of times that the train ends up on the bubble meaning they may take places 35-60 eats them alive from a rake perspective.
If you’re in the middle of a 25 person train in a 100 person contest, that essentially makes a contest have 76 unique lineups. If you’re a part of the train, you need your lineup to finish 26/75 to get a full payout of a double up. I don’t care how great of a lineup builder you are, consistently finishing 26/75 just to get your 80% payout is a very tough way to consistently profit. Now, most weeks you’ll finish on the bubble, so most weeks your going to be sweating out finishing +20% your money, or -20% your money depending on where you finish on the bubble.
Do trains make it impossible to win?
Not necessarily. They’ve been around for multiple seasons and most of the time they’re competitive lineups, but not such great lineups that they’ve ruined the sport. It’s likely an overreaction just because we’re early on in the season and they’ve had two consecutive good weeks. The good weeks for the trains are going to be frustrating, there’s no denying that.
Trains often start very high to start the year, until they lose one or two weeks in a row. Once that happens, you start to see people building different lineups. No different than when Cracking FanDuel is doing well, we’ll see 5-7% of lineups using this lineup, while otherwise it’s typically 2-3% using the Primary Cash Lineup.
Conclusion: Don’t panic
Honestly, I would rather have to beat one single train than 100 unique lineups of the world’s best players. Obviously the big edge and advantage comes when non-competitive lineups enter 50/50 contests, but we haven’t seen that consistently in several seasons since sports betting became popular, as most of those players are now just betting on one side of the game. Now, most people are able to build competitive lineups to a varying degree. The trains will cool off, I know almost all of those guys who are building their lineups and they aren’t doing anything unique or special that we aren’t doing here. In fact some of those people read this article to finalize their lineup.
Week 4 Thoughts: Pressure
Week 4 is an interesting slate. With a Sunday morning game in Ireland, two Monday Night games, and a Sunday/Thursday night game, we’re looking at an 11 game slate this week which is abnormal this early in the season. So, we essentially treat this like a bye week where 10 or 11 game slates are common.
The biggest question that you’re going to have to answer heading into this week is Puka Nacua. He’s been outstanding as he has 90 yards or more in each of his first three games while topping 100 in two of those contests. However, at $9,400 it’s a big commitment for a player who scored just three receiving touchdowns last season and does not have a receiving touchdown in 2025. If you look at stacking running backs such as Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson or even James Cook, the odds that these players score a touchdown is significantly higher than Nacua, which makes the $9,400 price tag difficult.
For me, it’s not time to completely overreact to three weeks. It’s sticking with the strategy of trying to find under-priced wide receivers, while spending up at the running back position. I got away from this last week a little bit when it came to spending up for CeeDee Lamb, but that was mostly due to the quarterback pricing and Jordan Mason/Ken Walker III being extreme values. With only Cam Skattebo being severely underpriced, paying up for two running backs is likely the optimal strategy for cash this week.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is out this week with a dislocated shoulder. He will miss the next 2-4 weeks. This makes Cam Skattebo an elite option at just $5,400. Skattebo surprisingly caught six passes which if that is repeatable he is a must play this week.
The Commanders are a mess. Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Noah Brown are all out for Washington. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is also questionable with a knee injury. While Marcus Mariota will get the start, at $6,600 he’s just not nearly the play he was last week despite facing Atlanta who gave up 30 points to Carolina last week.
Mike Evans will miss this week, while Chris Godwin remains questionable. At $7,000, Emeka Egbuka is an intriguing option this week as he will be the number one this week in a game that Adoree' Jackson for Philadelphia is out.
Davante Adams is questionable. He missed Wednesday and Thursday’s practice, and while the team surprisingly has not released Friday’s injury report on their website, there is some video of him running routs at Friday’s practice. Sean McVay seemed unphased when asked whether he would play, so expect him to be good to go this week.
The Bears are a mess defensively. Both Grady Jarrett and linebacker T.J. Edwards are out. This is an incredibly thin group up the middle and these are their two best players to stop the run. Ashton Jeanty likely isn’t cash viable, but could be a GPP play at just $6,800.
San Francisco has some big question marks. Both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are questionable. If either one of these players miss this week, the other becomes an elite play. If they both play, it makes it a bit challenging to play one of them.
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | 23.4 | $8,700 | IF you're looking at the quarterback who has the most likelihood to be a gamechanger this week, it would be Jackson. At 1-2, this is a critical game for both teams, but Jackson has been excellent through the first three games. He's thrown for an average of 3 passing touchdowns per game, thrown for 241 yards, and while the running is a little bit down compared to his standard at just 39 yards per game, it adds to a high floor for the quarterback. Last year, against this Steve Spagnuolo defense, Jackson ran for 122 yards and threw for another 273. In Week 1, Justin Herbert threw for 318 yards and a touchdown while also running for 32 yards. If Jackson can replicate that he's going to be a near must play this week. |
| 2 | Geno Smith | 19.4 | $7,200 | Geno Smith has quietly put up big numbers this season. Through the first three weeks, he's had two excellent games including last week where he threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns against the Commanders on the road. In Week 1, Smith threw for 362 yards at New England. Now, he comes back home against a Bears team that are without two of their top cornerbacks, without their best interior pass rusher in Grady Jarrett, and on the year the Bears only have 5 sacks which is 28th in the NFL this season. With Brock Bowers seeming to be healthier than he has been the last couple of weeks, this provides another option for Smith and the Raiders this week. |
| 3 | Brock Purdy | 19.9 | $6,600 | In Brock Purdy's last five starts, he has topped 270 yards in four of those, and topped 300 yards in three of those dating back to last season. Facing a Jaguars defense that has faced the easiest quarterback schedule in the NFL through the first three weeks in Bryce Young, Jake Browning, and C.J. Stroud, this is going to be a real test for the Jaguars this week. Purdy does not have an injury designation coming into this week, which is a great sign, although the reason he is not higher here is that we don't really know whether he is going to show the mobility that he had pre-toe injury. If he's not running at his normal pace, that's a 2-3 point per game that he will ultimately lose compared to being 100% healthy. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Cam Skattebo | 15.4 | 5400 | At $5,400, Skattebo is nearly a must start this week. The rookie benefits from the injury to Tyrone Tracy Jr. and will have his chance to take over the backfield for the Giants. While not the most exploive running back, what is encouraging about Skattebo is that he caught six passes in last week's defeat against the Chiefs. While we would have more confidence in his receiving upside this week if Russell Wilson is starting, Jaxson Dart will get the start. Typically a rookie will look to check-down to their running back often, but there's also some risk that they keep him in to provide some additional pass blocking to give Dart some additional time. |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | 22.2 | 9300 | While Christian McCaffrey hasn't gotten back to be the explosive running back that he has been throughout his career, the volume is that of a workhorse running back which is encouraging. McCaffrey is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry through the first three weeks which would be the lowest in his 11 year career, but he's averaging 25.7 touches per game. At that volume, it's very difficult not to consider him in cash this week just with having such a high floor. |
| 3 | Bijan Robinson | 18.7 | 8900 | Bijan Robinson is less than $9,000. While he was disappointing last week, he's in a position where he should be able to bounce back assuming Michael Penix Jr. and this passing offense can keep this game somewhat competitive. Robinson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, and still had 72 yards on 13 carries last week. With Washington not having Jayden Daniels or Terry McLaurin, that's going to limit their upside which should give Atlanta more possessions this week. Washington has allowed at least 60 rushing yards the last two games to Ashton Jeanty and Josh Jacobs. If Robinson can score a rushing touchdown which he has not done this season, he should be a fantastic cash game play with 100+ yard upside. |
| 4 | Omarion Hampton | 16.2 | 7000 | With Najee Harris placed on IR with a season-ending injury, this should be the opportunity that Omarion Hampton needs to take over this offense. Hampton had his best game of the season last week, as he had 19 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown. He also added six receptions last week for an additional 59 yards. At $7,000, this could be a very favorable game script against the Giants. |
| 5 | Bucky Irving | 16.7 | 7300 | There's a lot of excitement for Bucky Irving this week. The reasoning is pretty simple, it's that we saw him have 25 carries last week in Tampa Bay's 29-27 victory against the Jets. There's some concern here however. The Buccaneers went extremely conservative once they lost Mike Evans to an injury and Baker Mayfield was less than 100%. Tampa Bay got out to a 20-6 half-time lead and sat on it most of the second-half before needing Mayfield to have the game winning drive last week. The price is great for Irving at $7,300, but the matchup against Philadelphia is difficult and it's unlikely that he will see the game script that we saw last week. |
| 6 | James Cook | 18.3 | 8500 | The game script sets up perfectly for Cook this week. The only issue is the price. Cook's price has drastically increased due to scoring four touchdowns over the first three games. Cook has topped 100 yards in each of his last two games and so far, it seems that they're trying to save Josh Allen from taking additional hits in the red zone which is a great sign for Bills running back. However, at $8,500, he's likely a better GPP play than he is a cash game play simply because he's going to be more volatile than a player like Robinson or McCaffrey who are just a few hundred dollars more. With the Bills being 15 point favorites against the Saints, it sets up really well for the running back. |
| 7 | Jonathan Taylor | 19.5 | 9500 | Taylor has been the best running back in the league through the first three games. He's topped 100 yards in each of his last two games, and is now averaging 113 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. The issue for Taylor is the price. $9,500 for a running back who is only going to catch 2-3 passes per game is going to much more difficult than a player like McCaffrey, or Bijan Robinson who have the 5+ reception upside. For Taylor to hit his $9,500 price tag, he has to top 100-yards to get the 3 point bonus, and needs to have a touchdown. That only gets you to 2.1x his salary, so it's very possible that you need multiple touchdowns hwich to do that on the road against the Rams who have allowed the fewest points to opposing running backs this season is going to be a very tough ask. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Rome Odunze | 15.5 | 7200 | The breakout season for Rome Odunze is a hill that I'm going to risk my season on this year. Coming out of college, he was my top receiver heading into the 2024 draft. The 2024 Bears were an absolute mess with Shane Waldron being fired half-way through the season, and promoted Thomas Brown who was unprepared to take over the role. We've seen what damage Shane Waldron is doing to Brian Thomas Jr. this year, and how he held Jaxon Smith-Njigba back in Seattle leading Smith-Njigba to speak out against Waldron. Odunze has four touchdowns over the first three games, as the 6'3'' 215 yard receiver gives Caleb Williams a big target, compared to the smaller D.J. Moore. Odunze is also from Las Vegas, if he needed any additional motivation playing back in his home town. |
| 2 | Jakobi Meyers | 13.4 | 6,100 | Jakobi Meyers is extremely consistent. He's topped 60 yards in each of his three games this season. However, the upside is extremely limited for Meyers who does not have a touchdown, and does not have 100-yards this season. The matchup is a great one for the Raiders, as the Bears secondary is extremely limited with Jaylon Johnson on IR, and slot corner Kyler Gordon questionable. With safety Keith Byard struggling, this should help Meyers even more. |
| 3 | Emeka Egbuka | 14 | 7,000 | With no Mike Evans, and with Chris Godwin returning from injury, Emeka Egbuka should be in line for a big day this week. Egbuka has scored three touchdowns so far this season, but also has topped 60 yards in two of his three games. At $7,000 there should be some upside this week taking on Philadelphia in a game that the Buccaneers are going to have to throw the ball. Philadelphia has allowed 100+ yards to number one receivers in two of their first three games as CeeDee Lamb and Puka Nacua both topped 100 yards. Philadelphia will be without Adoree' Jackson this week who is their number two corner which in a rebuilding secondary will hurt their chances to stop Egbuka this week. |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | 19.4 | 9,400 | For Nacua, the question is the price. At $9,400, that's so incredibly expensive for a wide receiver who has not scored a receiving touchdown this season, and had just three all of last year. Nacua is not involved at all in the red zone, as he has just one red zone target this season, compared to Davante Adams who has 8 and Jordan Whittington who has 2. Last season, Nacua did not have a single red zone target the first seven weeks of the year. If you're going to play him, he absolutely has to score a touchdown. It's just not something that I want to target this week, and would rather fade the receiver this week. |
| 5 | Zay Flowers | 14 | 7,300 | Zay Flowers seems to have these massive games in the biggest moments. We saw in Week 1, where he had 143 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo. While he hasn't had big games the last two weeks against Detroit and Cleveland, those defenses are better than what Kansas City has been this season. At $7,300, he's likely more of a GPP play than he is a cash game play given his boom/bust volatility, but if Jackson has his ceiling game, Flowers will be a big reason why. |
| 6 | Chris Olave | 12.6 | 6,000 | Olave is a tough one this week. The volume has been outstanding as he has ten or more targets in each of his three games this season and is just $6,000. The problem for the wide receiver is that he is averaging just 7.2 yards per catch. This is more than five yards per catch below his lowest season. At some point, these will stabilize, as there's now way that he will end the year at this rate, but whether that will start turning around this week is a difficult one to figure out. With the Saints as big underdogs this week, it should lead to a game script where they are forced to throw heavily in Week 4. |
| 7 | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.3 | 5,800 | Tetairoa McMillan is questionable with a calf injury, but the rookie has been great through the first three games. $5,800, is just too cheap for a player who has a 100-yard game this season, and while he hasn't found the end-zone yet, one is going to be coming for the 6'5'' receiver. |
| 8 | Ricky Pearsall | 14.3 | 6,300 | The big question for Ricky Pearsall is health of both him and Jauan Jennings. If he is once again the sole wide receiver, he may move all the way up to the number one player this week, but if Jennings is active that will greatly impact his upside. This is a former first-round pick who has two 100-yard performances over the first three weeks and was highly rostered last week. At $6,300, he's priced as if Jennings will play which it seems likely he will at this point, but if he were to miss, this could be a player that we're looking to adjust the Primary Cash to fit into the lineup. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tyler Warren | 10.8 | 5800 | Warren had a down week last week with just 38 yards, but this has kept his price down at $5,800. We know that tight ends are going to be volatile. It's easy to be like a dog chasing their tail when it comes to tight ends, just consistently chasing the tight end who had a big game last week. Instead, you should look for which tight end has the talent, opportunity, and role compared to their price to outperform their expectation. Warren should be a great play this week at $5,800. The rookie is surrounded by players who are equally as volatile, and Warren has topped 70 yards in two of his three games this season. If he can find the end-zone this week he will be a great play. Warren leads the team in red zone targets among all of the tight ends and receivers. |
| 2 | Hunter Henry | 13 | 7,000 | Hunter Henry is that typical dog chasing his tail that we mentioned in the Tyler Warren section. Henry was outstanding last week with 90 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. The one thing to like about Henry is that his price is still very affordable at $5,500, and he very well might be the number one receiving option for Drake Maye this season. However, this is a 30-year old tight end, and it would be incredibly rare to see a breakout season at age 30. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Atlanta | 8.7 | 3,400 | Atlanta was absolutely embarrassed by Carolina last week, losing 30-0. This week, they get a Washington offense that will be without Marcus Mariota, Terry McLaurin, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. If you're looking to go cheap, taking a team at home that is under pressure to have a big rebound this week. |
| 2 | LA Chargers | 11.3 | 4,000 | If you can find the salary to go up to the Chargers, they seem to be an excellent play this week. Facing Jaxson Dart in his first start, he's a player who exploited some of the weaker competition at Ole Miss last season, but did struggle against some of the better defenses that he played in college. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 141.4)
- QB Lamar Jackson, Bal, $8,700
- RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $8,900
- RB Cam Skattebo, NYG, $5,400
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,100
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $6,000
- WR Tetairoa McMillan, CAR, $5,800
- TE Tyler Warren, IND, $5,800
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,300
- TD Los Angeles Chargers, $4,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 139.3)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often, these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup, which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Geno Smith, LV, $7,200
- RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $8,900
- RB Cam Skattebo, NYG, $5,400
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,100
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $6,000
- WR Rome Odunze, CHI, $7,200
- TE Tyler Warren, IND, $5,800
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,300
- TD Los Angeles Chargers, $4,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 137.5)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Geno Smith, LV, $7,200
- RB Omarion Hampton, LAC, $7,000
- RB Cam Skattebo, NYG, $5,400
- WR Jakobi Meyers, LV, $6,100
- WR Puka Nacua, LAR, $9,400
- WR Rome Odunze, CHI, $7,200
- TE Tyler Warren, IND, $5,800
- Flex RB James Cook, BUF, $8,500
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,400