Quarterback Tiers and Value Picks
By Sigmund Bloom - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Using tiers in fantasy football offers several strategic benefits beyond simple rankings. Rankings are linear, but tiers group players of similar value together. This helps you recognize when there's a big drop-off in talent, so you don't overreact to slight differences in rank. Example: If multiple wide receivers are left in a tier but only one player in the current running-back tier, you're more likely to take the running back before that tier is eliminated.
We'll cover every positional tier as the offseason moves on; today, we look at quarterbacks.
Elite QB1s
The players in this group have established themselves as annual top 5 fantasy plays, which makes them worth paying up for early in your draft.
Jackson emerged as the clear QB1 last year, facing defenses that had to also worry about Derrick Henry. There's no reason to think he won't do it again or be even better with a maturing offensive line and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins.
Allen got off to a slow start last year because of a couple of blowouts and a spirited performance from the Texans defense, but was Jackson's equal from Week 6 on. You'll probably have to break the seal on quarterbacks if you want him.
Hurts has a small worry with the league seemingly on the warpath to ban the tush push. He underperformed a bit when A.J. Brown missed three weeks, but was back at his 2023 scoring level (which was good enough for QB2 behind Allen) after Brown returned until Hurts had to leave Week 16 early with a concussion.
Elite QB1s at a Discount
This group's scoring range is just a little below the elite tier, and any of them could finish ahead of any or all of the elite quarterbacks. If you want to spend early on quarterback, it's probably best to wait a little bit and dip into this group instead of the elite tier.
Daniels was a revelation in both fantasy and NFL circles last year, but there's a heightened injury risk - which was responsible for his mid-season slump. C.J. Stroud's down second season looms over the decision about taking Daniels, who is going off the board closer to his ceiling than his floor. Daniels finished the season on a heater that would put him in contention to be QB1 overall if he can carry it over to this season, so don't let me talk you out of taking him at ADP.
All Burrow did was finish as QB3 last year, scoring at the same level as Allen and Hurts in 2023, which was good enough for them to be QB1 and QB2 that year. It's also the same level Burrow scored at in 2022. His ADP has crept up close to the elite tier, so the fantasy community has caught on.
Mayfield was an elite QB1 for fantasy last year when he wasn't missing both starting wide receivers. His team spent their first-round pick on another wide receiver, so it's hard to see why he is going multiple rounds after the top five. Mayfield is easily the best value on the board at quarterback, unless you think he will come back to earth without Liam Coen. In that case, you should be all in on Trevor Lawrence instead.
Boom/Bust QB1s
All of these quarterbacks have elite QB1 upside from both a season-long and weekly point of view. There's reason for optimism that all three are in improved situations. There's also risk, as all are coming off of disappointing seasons. This group allows you to take a QB1 with a top 5 ceiling outside of your top 5-6 picks and will fit well in most draft plans.
If Mahomes could only keep Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy on the field at the same time, he could get back to the fantasy penthouse where he once resided. We've been trying to talk ourselves into a bounceback year for two offseasons in a row now, so Mahomes is as each as he's been since his breakout 2018 campaign.
Murray didn't click in Drew Petzing's offense, he didn't return to pre-ACL running production levels, and Marvin Harrison Jr.. wasn't the impact rookie that we projected him to be. Any or even all three of those conditions could change this year. Murray has said his knee was still bothering him last year and he's ready to run more if they want him to, which gives him the potential to be the biggest hit on the quarterback board, given his inexpensive price.
Fields was once again a high-ceiling QB1 option even in Arthur Smith's offense before he ceded the job to Russell Wilson. He's less likely to lose his job this year in New York. Fields is also playing behind a talented offensive line with a new offensive coordinator coming from the successful Detroit staff (Tanner Engstrand). As the cherry on the sundae, he'll be reunited with college teammate Garrett Wilson. Fields is a value pick going well later in redraft than when he was in a lesser Bears offense.
Prescott gets a big boost from the acquisition of George Pickens. The Cowboys also neglected their backfield in the draft and free agency and should have to rely on the passing game to move the ball. Of course, Prescott was set up with a similar scenario last year and mostly disappointed, so that's why he's much cheaper this year.
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