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To recap the process, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then, you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.
This article will use these principles to find value in dynasty fantasy football. As we cross over halfway through the season, this article will focus on updated Dynasty Investor cluster charts using expected points per game, the trades we've closed, and initiate new trade ideas.
Key Points Up Front
- Updated positional cluster charts now using 2023 expected PPG through week nine.
- Our highest conviction ideas (all buys) at each position are QB Kyler Murray, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Diontae Johnson, and TE Kyle Pitts.
- Downgraded from Buy to Hold (closed): A.J. Brown, DJ Moore, and Alvin Kamara.
- Upgraded from Sell to Hold (closed): Brock Purdy, Kyren Williams, and Tutu Atwell.
- Downgraded from Hold to Sell (initiation): Will Levis, Derrick Henry, Raheem Mostert, Adam Thielen, & Travis Kelce.
- Upgraded from Hold to Buy (initiation): Bryce Young, Tee Higgins, Kendre Miller.
Cluster Update - 2023 Expected
We will now look at the fantasy landscape broken up into clusters of similar players by age and PPG. These are NOT rankings; they are groupings of like-for-like players. Please take a look at the charts below. The update here is we are moving from projected 2023 PPG to expected 2023 PPG through week nine. The clusters are graphed with increasing expected 2023 PPG on the horizontal axis and decreasing age (youngest on top) on the vertical axis. The players are divided into clusters shown by the gray dashed line by PPGs and by age. Visually, these clusters are grouped by color. Also, the size of the bubble represents each player's KTC, so the bigger the bubble, the higher the KTC. Big shout out to @NFL_Billy_Jones for helping me put these together.
We've had six favorable ratings changes since our last update. We downgraded A.J. Brown, DJ Moore, and Alvin Kamara from Buy to Hold. We upgraded Brock Purdy, Kyren Williams, and Tutu Atwell from Sell to Hold. As a reminder, the Buy rating means we are actively in the market trying to buy a player, and we want to be overweight that player in our portfolio of teams. A Sell rating means we are actively trying to sell the player, and we want to underweight him in our portfolio of teams. And a Hold rating is just that, not trying to buy or sell and just wanting to be about market weight in our portfolio of teams. Hold-rated players can still have upside/downside or be fairly valued. So, let's take a quick look at these rating changes.
Downgraded A.J. Brown from Buy to Hold
We recommended buying Brown at a KTC of 6346 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC of 7700 on him. At the time of the downgrade, Brown's KTC was 7440, within 4% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 17% result or 1094 KTC added.
At the time of the buy recommendation, back in late October of 2022, the trade advice was to sell Ken Walker III to buy A.J. Brown, which I think now can be viewed as a clear win from a dynasty perspective. This is what we wrote about Brown in the FBG Dynasty Investor series in July: "A.J. Brown is a Dynasty Investor top pick. We added him to the buy list in early November of 2022. The thesis at the time was that he would be the guy that could cluster up to the Jefferson/Chase cluster, if not be the one wide receiver that could sort of bridge the gap between the Jefferson/Chase and the rest of the pack."
Downgrading DJ Moore from Buy to Hold
We recommended buying Moore at a KTC of 4228 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 5350. At the time of the downgrade, Moore's KTC was 5144, within 5% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 22% result or 916 KTC added.
A couple of the DJ Moore trades we've recommended over this series were to buy DJ Moore straight up for Dalvin Cook or Kyren Williams. If you could do something like that, one has to feel good about those trades.
Downgrading Alvin Kamara from Buy to Hold
We recommended buying Kamara at a KTC of 2989 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC of 3800 on him. At the time of the downgrade, Kamara's KTC was 3770, within 1% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 26% result, or 781 KTC was added.
Upgrading Brock Purdy from Sell to Hold
We recommended selling Purdy at a KTC of 5174 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 4500. At the time of the upgrade, Purdy's KTC was 4636, within 3% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 10% result, or 538 KTC was added.
At the time of the sell recommendation, in early October, the recommendation was to try to make one of these trades: Brock Purdy = Kyler Murray. Brock Purdy = Deshaun Watson + 3rd. Brock Purdy = Bryce Young. We're not sure if those trades are winners yet, but we see upside in Murray, Watson, and Young.
Upgrading Kyren Williams from Sell to Hold
We recommended selling Williams at a KTC of 4538 (purple circle) and put a target KTC on him of 3800. At the time of the upgrade, Williams' KTC was 3877, within 2% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 15% result, or 661 KTC was added.
At the time of the sell recommendation, in early October, the recommendation was to try and do one of these trades: Kyren Williams = Kyle Pitts + 4th. Kyren Williams = DJ Moore. Kyren Williams = Zach Charbonnett + early 3rd. Kyren Williams + late 2nd = Jonathan Taylor. Those types of trades were a net win.
Upgrading Tutu Atwell from Sell to Hold
We recommended selling Atwell at a KTC of 3014 (purple circle on chart) and put a target KTC on him of 2450. At the time of the upgrade, Atwell's KTC was 2460, within 1% of the initial target price. The trade was a favorable 18% result, or 554 KTC was added.
At the time of the sell recommendation, in early October, the recommendation was to try and make one of these trades: Tutu Atwell = 2nd. Tutu Atwell = Josh Downs. Tutu Atwell = Tank Bigsby. Tutu Atwell = Rondale Moore + 3rd. Tutu Atwell + 4th = Diontae Johnson. A few of those trades are highly beneficial, like Diontae Johnson, Josh Downs, and the 2nd.
Dynasty Investor Top picks
Here are our current top picks, i.e., open recommendations. And following that, we'll go through some of the new initiations in more detail.
- Deshaun Watson (~65% upside)
- Kyler Murray (~35%)
- Bryce Young (~20%) UPGRADE
- Trey Lance (100%+)
- Jonathan Taylor (~15%)
- Kendre Miller (~20%) UPGRADE
- Tee Higgins (~10%) UPGRADE
- Treylon Burks (~85%)
- Diontae Johnson (~30%)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (100%+)
- Rondale Moore (~90%)
- Brandin Cooks (100%+)
- David Bell (100%+)
- Kyle Pitts (~45%)
- Greg Dulcich (~55%)
- Noah Fant (~95%)
- Will Levis (~15% downside) DOWNGRADE
- Raheem Mostert (~20% downside) DOWNGRADE
- Derrick Henry (~15% downside) DOWNGRADE
- Adam Thielen (~20% downside) DOWNGRADE
- Travis Kelce (~15% downside) DOWNGRADE
Upgrade to Buy Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins is an excellent WR. He would be many team's WR1. But he happens to play opposite one of the best WRs in the game, Ja'Marr Chase. This often leads people to overlook or undervalue Higgins in Dynasty. We will do the opposite; we will highlight Higgins as a top pick and a guy you should be looking to Buy. His situation is uncertain over the long term, a watch item, but even with that uncertainty, Higgins is too cheap relative to his peers.
Today, we are upgrading Tee Higgins to Buy. His price target is ~5800 KTC, which is ~11.5% upside from current levels.
We are calling for a bounce from the minus one standard deviation to just above the three-year average KTC price for Higgins.
Upgrade to Buy Bryce Young
Things have yet to click for rookie Bryce Young this season. It seems that Young may have a poor supporting cast. But that's okay; situations change, and sometimes it takes time for everything to click. Fellow rookie QBs C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson have had a few more things go right for them, and they are being rewarded for that. Bryce Young is of a similar talent level to Stroud/Richardson, and when/if he gets it together, he could be valued similarly.
Today, we are upgrading Bryce Young to Buy. His price target is ~5700 KTC, which is ~18.5% upside from current levels.
We are off the lows and bouncing a little; we hope that trend continues and he works his way into the mid to high 5000s KTC.
Upgrade to Buy Kendre Miller
Kendre Miller is a long-term buy. Miller was the Saints' early third-round pick in this year's NFL draft and has gotten minimal work behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams this season. At 5-foot-11 and 220 pounds, Miller is a perfect complement to Alvin Kamara and could manage a three-down workload if the running back situation changed (via injuries, free agency, or trades). We see Miller in the same range as Zach Charbonnet, but he trades for ~700 KTC less.
Today, we are upgrading Kendre Miller to Buy. His price target is ~3400 KTC, which is ~19% upside from current levels.
We hope he bounces closer to his plus-one standard deviation line around 3500.
Downgrade to Sell Will Levis
We want to take the spike up in price to pivot somewhere else, particularly trying to tier up. We see Levis in the Sam Howell cluster and a similar range of outcomes. Levis now trades above Howell in KTC, and Howell is outperforming from an expected PPG perspective.
Today, we are downgrading Will Levis to Sell. His price target is ~3850 KTC, which is ~18% downside from current levels.
- Will Levis + 2025 mid-4th = Bryce Young
- Will Levis + 2024 late-2nd = Kyler Murray
- Will Levis = Deshaun Watson + 2024 early-3rd
We are calling for the spike to come back down below 4000 KTC in between the average and the plus-one standard deviation lines.
Downgrade to Sell (AGE): Derrick Henry, Raheem Mostert, Adam Thielen, & Travis Kelce
The age downgrades primarily stem from the mid-year cluster charts above, and we are saying now's the time to move on from those older (outlier) players. These guys pop off the chart (in the wrong way) regarding age. Our target price for the downgrades are Derrick Henry 3000 KTC, Raheem Mostert 2500 KTC, Adam Thielen 2300 KTC, and Travis Kelce 4700 KTC. We expect little pushback from anybody on these downgrades except for Kelce. Kelce has been a positional and team differentiator for years. And yes, I'm aware many fantasy analysts have tried to make a call on Kelce and failed year after year. But we are making just that call. Next year, we think Kelce will trade at a lower KTC price than he has this year. We're leaving room for him to come back and dominate again next year. We're just saying that each year, his KTC price, trade value, and appeal will lessen, so let's try and take advantage of the Kelce mania now.
- Travis Kelce = 2025 early-1st
- Travis Kelce = Kyler Murray
- Raheem Mostert = 2024 mid-2nd
- Derrick Henry = 2024 early-2nd
- Adam Thielen = 2025 mid-2nd
The total KTC added through The Dynasty Investor process is now up to 27,746 KTC.
|Player||Advice||Date Added||Initial KTC||Target KTC||Date Closed||closed KTC||Performance (%)||Value Added|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||BUY||7/1/22||4175||5200||9/19/22||5120||23||945|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||BUY||11/8/22||5236||6200||12/9/22||6146||17||910|
|Ken Walker III||SELL||11/8/22||6780||5150||5/1/23||5241||-23||1539|
Total KTC Value Added = 27,746
Thanks for reading! If you want to learn more about Dynasty Fantasy Football and the P/E ratio, please follow me on Twitter @_jasonstein and let me know your questions and how I can help.
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