Week 7 brings another small 10-game slate. Half of the teams have projected totals of 22 points or fewer, which will shrink the pool of high-upside tournament options at several positions. Quarterback and running back are especially thin this week. More than any slate so far, I’m comfortable playing the chalk at those two spots and focusing on differentiation at wide receiver and tight end instead. The salary structure has also shifted slightly, which will have a big impact on roster construction. We’ll dig into all of that and more in this week’s GPP Guide.
Weather Note
We need to keep an eye on Sunday morning weather reports for four games:
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Dolphins at Browns
This game has the highest risk of weather-related impact. Forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms with west winds of 18–25 mph and gusts up to 39 mph. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s, and there’s a 100% chance of precipitation. Both passing efficiency and kicking could be affected. -
Saints at Bears
Strong northwest winds of 20–25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) and steady rain make this another game to monitor. The conditions could limit downfield passing and overall scoring potential. High near 58 with a 100% chance of precipitation. -
Patriots at Titans
Rain is expected to taper off before kickoff, but wind could still be an issue. Forecast calls for partly sunny skies with temperatures falling from 69 to 62 and west winds of 15–20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph). Chance of precipitation is 50%. -
Panthers at Jets
Rain and moderate winds could play a factor. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with southeast winds of 13–17 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Temperatures will hover around 60 degrees with a 90% chance of precipitation and up to three-quarters of an inch of rain possible.
Matchups and Slate Overview
One way to identify potential value is by comparing each team’s implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the best matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
With six weeks of data to work with, we can also start to draw firmer conclusions about which defenses are weakest against each position. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents’ typical production. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points above expectation. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents’ norms. Those positional defense metrics are included in the tables below. Positive numbers in these tables are good for the offensive players at the listed position, while negative numbers mean it is a tougher matchup.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 7 expected to outperform versus their 2025 scoring average.
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Cleveland
The Browns get a massive 59% scoring boost in Week 7, suggesting their top offensive players should outperform expectations despite the weather concerns. Quinshon Judkins had 25 opportunities (carries plus targets) in both Weeks 4 and 5 but only 13 on a 40% snap share in Week 6. That dip was largely due to game script. Given the expected conditions, Judkins should return to a 25+ touch workload. The matchup is strong, as the Miami defense is allowing 4.1 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs. -
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ offense has felt high-powered, but they’ve averaged just 21.2 points per game. They get an 18% scoring boost in what could be a shootout with the Colts. Indianapolis has been solid against the run but vulnerable through the air, putting Justin Herbert and his receivers in a great spot. With Quentin Johnston back to full health, identifying which wideout will emerge is the main challenge. -
Washington
Dallas remains a defense to target. The Cowboys are giving up huge fantasy performances weekly, and the metrics back it up. Jayden Daniels looked fully healthy in his Week 6 return and now faces a defense that just allowed 239 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle. Jacory Croskey-Merritt saw career highs in touches (18) and snap share (66%) and should again be heavily involved. The passing game could also thrive, but injuries to Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, and a banged-up Deebo Samuel Sr. may open the door for value plays among Washington’s secondary pass catchers. -
Kansas City
The Chiefs’ offense is heating up and now welcomes Rashee Rice back to the lineup. Expect Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City passing attack to be among the more popular stacks on the slate.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 7 expected to underperform versus their 2025 scoring average.
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Indianapolis
The Colts’ red-hot offense is expected to slow down this week, with a -27% scoring boost indicating a tougher environment. This matchup is not ideal for Jonathan Taylor to post multiple touchdowns, though the Chargers defense can be attacked on the ground. Expect Taylor to see plenty of volume, but his $10,000 salary, the negative team outlook, and projected popularity make him difficult to justify as “good chalk.” He still belongs in tournament pools but isn’t a must-play. -
New York Giants
Like Indianapolis, this is a difficult setup for the passing game, and touchdowns may be scarce. However, the matchup isn’t bad for Cam Skattebo and the rushing attack. The low game total will keep ownership down, giving Skattebo some contrarian appeal in tournaments. -
Dallas
The Cowboys carry a -11% scoring boost and have middling matchups across the board. Despite that, this is the highest total game on the slate, so stacks involving both Dallas and Washington will draw attention. The challenge is deciding whether to lean into those stacks or fade them altogether, which could be one of the key strategic decisions of the week.
Quarterback
The FanDuel pricing algorithm once again pushes us toward paying up for the top quarterbacks. The gap between the elite options at the top (priced between $7,600 and $8,700) and the low-floor, low-upside group around $7,000 isn’t large enough to justify the downgrade in talent and ceiling. It makes sense to spend a little more to secure one of the top dual-threat passers this week.
Ownership will naturally be concentrated at the position, but it’s difficult to make a strong case for any of the cheaper quarterbacks. With eight high-upside options in that $7,600 to $8,700 range, it’s almost certain that at least one of them posts the type of score required to win a tournament.
In his return from a multi-week knee injury, Daniels ran 10 times for 52 yards, easing any concerns about his mobility. He draws a dream matchup against a Cowboys defense allowing 7.5 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing quarterbacks, the highest mark in the league. Dallas has surrendered at least two touchdowns to every quarterback it has faced this season, despite a relatively soft schedule that includes Bryce Young, Justin Fields, and Russell Wilson.
Daniels faced the Cowboys once last season and delivered a huge performance, rushing for 74 yards and a touchdown while throwing for 275 yards and two more scores. While injuries at wide receiver are a slight concern, Daniels just threw for 211 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Bears, showing he can still thrive even with a depleted supporting cast.
At age 30, Mahomes is quietly having the best rushing season of his career. He ranks third among quarterbacks with 222 rushing yards, just behind Josh Allen and Justin Fields, and sits second in rushing touchdowns with four, one behind Jalen Hurts. The passing offense has also started to round into shape in recent weeks after a slow start. Over his last three games, Mahomes has averaged 281.7 passing yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns per game.
The matchup is solid, as reflected by the Chiefs’ team total of 28.5. The last time Mahomes faced the Raiders, he threw 46 passes, his highest attempt total since 2022. Sigmund Bloom’s Week 7 projection for Mahomes was eye-catching: 308 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions, and five rushes for 22 yards with 0.6 rushing touchdowns.
If you agree with Bloom and think Mahomes throws for 300-plus yards and scores three or more total touchdowns, ownership shouldn’t scare you off. Just play him.
While the Washington pass defense has been solid, it makes sense to ride the hot hand with Prescott. He has been carving up quality defenses lately, throwing for 10 touchdowns over his last three games against the Panthers, Jets, and Packers. Even more impressive, he did it all without CeeDee Lamb. In Lamb’s absence, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson stepped up and produced at an elite level, and both players are brimming with confidence heading into Week 7.
Now, with Lamb returning for a divisional matchup that carries clear shootout potential, Prescott’s outlook only improves. Despite his recent surge, he is projected to be less popular than quarterbacks like Daniels and Mahomes. As mentioned earlier, this isn’t a week to overthink quarterback selections, and among the top-tier options, Prescott stands out as the best combination of ceiling and ownership leverage.
Running Back
You’ll notice that all six recommended running backs this week are priced at $7,800 or below. Jonathan Taylor ($10,000), Josh Jacobs ($9,200), and Saquon Barkley ($8,700) are all fine plays in a vacuum, but they’re harder to fit when prioritizing expensive quarterbacks and stacking them with top targets like Rashee Rice, CeeDee Lamb, or Rome Odunze.
While there isn’t much appeal among the bargain options below Kimani Vidal at $6,200, the mid-tier is filled with strong choices. Each back listed below has realistic multi-touchdown upside at a fair price, and most of my lineups will feature three of these mid-range plays.
Williams struggled to find running room last week against an underrated Panthers defense, but his usage was highly encouraging. With Miles Sanders on injured reserve, Williams barely left the field, playing 86% of the snaps and seeing eight targets. For the season, he’s averaging exactly 20 opportunities per game (15.3 carries and 4.7 targets).
The Commanders defense has been vulnerable to lead backs lately, allowing at least 175 total yards to the opposing starter twice in the last three weeks—Bijan Robinson in Week 4 and D’Andre Swift in Week 6.
This is a spot where we should see Judkins return to the 20-plus touches he averaged from Weeks 3 through 5. The Browns are actually favored this week, which should lead to a run-heavy approach against a soft Dolphins defense. Miami has allowed 4.1 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs and has struggled badly in recent weeks. Kimani Vidal totaled 138 yards and a touchdown last week, while Rico Dowdle went for 234 yards and a score the week before.
The situation in Miami looks bleak, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the team shows little fight for Mike McDaniel in what’s expected to be a cold, rainy environment. If the Dolphins check out mentally, tackling Judkins repeatedly could turn into a long, painful afternoon.
He lost a fumble and didn’t break off any long runs like in previous weeks, but the underlying numbers in Week 6 were encouraging. Croskey-Merritt set career highs in both touches (18) and snap share (66%) against Chicago. He now draws an elite matchup against a Cowboys defense allowing 7.1 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs, the second-worst mark in the league behind only Cincinnati.
Dallas has been shredded by opposing starters for three straight weeks—239 total yards by Rico Dowdle last week, 155 by Breece Hall in Week 5, and 157 by Josh Jacobs in Week 4. At just $6,600, Croskey-Merritt is the cheapest way to get exposure to the highest-scoring game on the slate. He fits well as part of a Dallas-Washington game stack, but he also works as a standalone option. One path to this game failing to turn into a full shootout is Washington controlling the clock on the ground with Croskey-Merritt and limiting Dallas’ offensive opportunities.
The matchup is mediocre on paper. Carolina is projected to match their season average of 22 points, and the Jets have allowed 1.8 fewer FanDuel PPG than opponents typically average to running backs. There’s also uncertainty surrounding Dowdle’s workload with Chuba Hubbard returning. Those factors, combined with several strong mid-range running back alternatives, should keep Dowdle’s ownership low in tournaments.
That makes him an intriguing contrarian play. The upside is clear—he’s coming off consecutive games with more than 230 total yards. If Dave Canales rides the hot hand, Dowdle should maintain at least a 70% share of the backfield touches even with Hubbard back in the rotation.
The Raiders ended their four-game losing streak by truly featuring Jeanty. He played 79% of the snaps and handled 27 opportunities (23 carries and 4 targets). After the game, Pete Carroll noted that this type of workload should continue moving forward. Anytime you can get a talented back projected for 25 touches at just $7,300, he deserves strong consideration, even in a tougher matchup.
Many will avoid Skattebo and the Giants offense this week due to their matchup with an elite Denver defense and a low team total of 16.2. However, the same concerns existed last week against a strong Eagles unit, and Skattebo responded with 110 total yards and three touchdowns.
Denver’s defense doesn’t have an obvious weakness, but it has been merely average against opposing running backs. At his bargain price and with low projected ownership, Skattebo is a strong tournament pivot away from chalkier options like Breece Hall and Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Wide Receiver
If CeeDee Lamb had missed another week, Pickens would have been the clear chalk play on this slate. Instead, with Lamb returning, Pickens is flying slightly under the radar despite his incredible recent production. Over the past three weeks, he’s averaged 119.7 receiving yards per game and has scored six touchdowns in his last five.
Lamb’s return could mean fewer targets for Pickens, but it should also draw defensive attention away from him. With the possibility of some rust for Lamb in his first game back, Pickens remains my preferred option in the Dallas passing attack for Week 7.
If not for an illegal formation penalty that wiped out a touchdown on Monday night, Odunze would have scored in every game this season. He also narrowly missed two other big plays on off-target throws. Despite inconsistent quarterback play, he’s been the one steady piece in the Bears’ passing game, averaging 8.0 targets and a touchdown per game. DJ Moore is expected to play through a hip injury that required an overnight hospital stay, but it’s fair to question how close to full strength he’ll be.
If Odunze’s Week 6 box score had matched how well he actually played, his ownership would be much higher. This is a good opportunity to buy low on an emerging star against a mediocre Saints defense that has struggled to contain perimeter receivers.
It has been over a year since Rice last played, but his early-season production from 2024 shows how impactful he can be. Through three games, he averaged 8.0 catches for 96.0 yards and two touchdowns—putting him on pace for 136 receptions, 1,632 yards, and 11 scores. Reports indicate he will be “full bore” in his return with a full workload after staying healthy and active throughout the offseason.
Kansas City already ranks eighth in passing yards and has topped 28 points in three straight games. With Patrick Mahomes II back in rhythm and Rice joining Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown, this offense could reach another level. The Raiders have given up 971 receiving yards to opposing wideouts through six weeks, the seventh-most in the league, setting Rice up for a strong return. Rice is probably going to be priced $8,500 or higher within a few weeks, so I am willing to play him despite his expected popularity given what looks like a very solid price discount.
Since returning from a three-week suspension to start the season, Addison has averaged 77.5 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He’s passed the eye test with flying colors. Among the lower-priced WR2 and WR3 options this week, his talent stands out the most. He consistently gets open, catches everything thrown his way, and seems to make a highlight-reel grab every game.
Addison remains a proven big-play threat, and he draws an Eagles defense that has allowed explosive plays to opposing wide receivers in three straight weeks.
Robinson is on pace for 82 receptions, 995 yards, and six touchdowns this season. With Malik Nabers sidelined, he’s become the clear go-to option for Jaxson Dart, catching six passes for 84 yards and a touchdown last week against the Eagles. Even with a tough matchup against the Broncos, Robinson has a strong chance to stay productive.
The Giants are thin at wide receiver, and Patrick Surtain II will likely lock down one of the outside options, funneling more targets Robinson’s way. Dart is playing with confidence, and Robinson is his top target. At just $6,000 and with minimal projected ownership, he’s an appealing tournament play.
Coker returns this week after missing the first six games with a quad injury. He’s been practicing for two weeks and should be ready to contribute immediately in his 2025 debut. The Panthers need a spark at wide receiver. Tetaroa McMillan has been the only reliable option, and he’s expected to draw shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner. With the rest of the receiving corps struggling, Coker could step in as the No. 2 target right away in a game where McMillan’s volume may dip.
At a sub-$5,000 salary and with minimal projected ownership, Coker is an appealing tournament dart throw and a practical salary-saver at WR3.
Tight End
Travis Kelce projects as the most popular tight end this week, but he’s an easy fade for me. Rashee Rice operates in the same areas of the field and, at this stage of their careers, offers far more upside for the price. Given the goal of paying up at quarterback, rostering three mid-tier or better running backs, and including at least one elite wide receiver, my attention is on the sub-$6,000 tight ends in Week 7.
Tyler Warren, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, and Tucker Kraft are all strong plays if you can make the salary work. Personally, I’m finding it difficult to fit them and still build balanced lineups, which makes the cheaper tight ends appealing enough to prioritize in most of my tournament builds.
Ertz has scored touchdowns in three of his four games with Jayden Daniels this season and in nine of his last fourteen overall with him. He led the Commanders in targets last week, catching all six for 43 yards and a touchdown. With Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown sidelined again and Deebo Samuel Sr. playing through injury, Ertz has a real chance to serve as Daniels’ top option in the passing game.
In a matchup with clear shootout potential, Ertz stands out as a strong play at just $5,100. He’s been a steady red zone threat and could easily lead Washington in targets once again. Even with a modest 7% projected roster rate, he fits the “good chalk” label given the lack of appealing popular tight end options on this slate.
Goedert has been on a touchdown streak, scoring five times in his last four games. He’s emerged as the most consistent and productive piece of the Eagles passing game lately, drawing 20 targets over the past two weeks. Last week against the Giants, he delivered a breakout performance with nine catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. With that kind of recent volume and reliability, Goedert could once again be a focal point of the offense in Week 7.
Fannin has been terrific early in his rookie season. He leads all tight ends in yards after contact and broken tackles (11) and is coming off season highs in targets (10), receptions (7), and yards (81). The Dolphins have allowed the eighth-most FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing tight ends, and this is a week where the entire Browns offense gets a lift as home favorites with a 21.8-point team total.
With David Njoku out, expect Fannin to potentially be more popular than our percent rostered projections show, but he still makes for an excellent play at a bargain price tag. I prefer him and the $1,500 cap savings over fellow rookie Tyler Warren.