Take the shot. Early in the season, we are willing to take every shot. Leagues are aggressive on the waiver wire. Early reveals show us who has value in ambiguous situations. We aggressively adjust offseason player values. 

As the weeks progress, that interest and aggression dwindle. We assume we know how a situation will play out or a player's worth. We want to keep our FAAB powder dry for that one big swing. In an era where we meticulously break down running back depth charts and roster all handcuffs, is that big FAAB swing even still on the board?

In reality, many fantasy players begin to unplug as the season progresses. You can see the effects of this after the season, as players who performed strongly to start the year but tailed off will be viewed differently than players who started slow but caught fire. We are all very aware of the surprise Top 10 fantasy producers through the first four or eight weeks of a season. We are much less aware of players who performed well during Weeks 10-13. Did you know Jared Goff is QB3 over the last four weeks? That Trevor Lawrence is QB7? Or that Jauan Jennings is WR12, Jakobi Meyers is WR13, and Colby Parkinson is TE5?

Imagine if Ja'Marr Chase was WR64 through the first four weeks of the year like he has been over the last four. 

Dynasty valuation site Keeptradecut.com can show how these opinions get locked in. Dallas Goedert was excellent to start the year, ranking as TE5 through the first eight weeks. His dynasty value climbed from preseason TE26 to TE14. He has been dreadful since Week 7, ranking as TE36 during that span. His value has dipped to TE17, but not far off his TE14 peak. 

Compare Goedert to a similarly talented player in the same age range, Dalton Schultz. Schultz's summer value sat around TE31. He was disappointing to start the season, TE25 through the first six weeks, and his value dropped to TE37. Since Week 7, he has been TE7, and his value has only ticked up to a peak of TE29. 

The NFL trade deadline created movement at wide receiver for multiple teams. Devaughn Vele, Adonai Mitchell, and John Metchie III stepped into larger roles after their teammates' departures. They merited some mention in waiver content, though few were banging the drum as must-grab players. Metchie was WR9 between Weeks 11 and 12, while Mitchell and Vele popped in Week 13 with WR6 and WR8 finishes. These things can be easy to see in hindsight, but a WR6 finish for Mitchell in Week 1 if Garrett Wilson were done for the season would create a much larger splash than Week 13. 

Continuing to grab these pop-up players is the true league winners. 

And now, The Roundup.

Blind Resume

It was a big week for the "We know this situation already" All Stars. Can you place this production?

Stats Of The Week

Josh Allen, Buffalo - 1 Rushing Touchdown, 1 Passing Touchdown

Allen broke a tie with Cam Newton, becoming the NFL's career leader for quarterback rushing touchdowns with 76. It was Allen's 49th career game with a passing and rushing touchdown, extending an NFL record he already held. Newton is next with 45 games. Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young are tied for third with 31, while Jalen Hurts has 29.  

D'Andre Swift, Chicago - 125 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing Touchdown, 13 Receiving Yards
Kyle Monangai, Chicago - 130 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing Touchdown

Think this game meant something to Swift? Born and raised in Philadelphia, Swift excelled in his first opportunity to play against the Eagles after they moved on from him for Saquon Barkley. 

Swift and Monangai became the 12th teammates to each rush for 125+ yards and 1+ touchdowns in NFL history. Frank Gore Jr. and Colin Kaepernick were the last to accomplish this in 2014. 

The Bears' improvement in their run game following their Week 5 bye has been a frequent topic, and for good reason. Swift has 587 rushing yards in seven games following the bye, an average of 83.9 per game, a 17-game pace of 1,426. Monangai has 529 in eight games, averaging 66.1; his 17-game pace is 1,124. Swift needs 226 rushing yards to hit 1,000 while Monangai needs 409. Both can be started in fantasy leagues given their recent production and opportunities. 

Justin Fields was the last Bear to hit 1,000 yards rushing, doing it in 2022. David Montgomery was the last running back to hit the mark in 2020. There have been seven teammates who each rushed for 1,000 yards in a season; Mark Ingram II and Lamar Jackson in 2019 were the last. 

Chase Brown, Cincinnati - 113 Scrimmage Yards

Brown set a Bengals team record by topping 100 scrimmage yards for the sixth consecutive game. 

Through the first six games of the season, Brown averaged 33.7 rushing ypg and 17 receiving yards. Over his last six, he has spiked that to 83.7 rushing and 30.8 receiving yards. 

Brown has 48 receptions, tying Derrick Fenner for the tenth most by a Bengals running back in a single season. Joe Mixon has the top mark for the team, with 60 catches in 2022. 

Derrick Henry, Baltimore - 60 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing Touchdown, 44 Receiving Yards

Henry moved to 12,354 career rushing yards, passing Jim Brown's 12,312 for the 11th most in NFL history. Tony Dorsett is tenth with 12,739 yards. He hit 2,852 yards as a Raven, moving past Willis McGahee's 2,802 for the fifth most in Ravens team history. Gus Edwards is fourth with 3,395 before a significant jump to Ray Rice's 6,180. 

Henry scored his 116th career rushing touchdown. He is in fifth place on the career list and needs four more to tie Adrian Peterson for the fourth most in NFL history. He scored his 26th career rushing touchdown as a Raven to tie Edwards for the fifth most in team history. McGahee is next at 31. 

Davante Adams, LA Rams - 2 Touchdowns

Adams tied and then moved past Antonio Gates with his 117th career receiving touchdown. He moves into seventh all-time, trailing Larry Fitzgerald by four. 

Zach Ertz, Washington - 10 Receptions, 106 Receiving Yards

Ertz moved past Shannon Sharpe for fifth on the tight end career reception list at 824. Tony Gonzalez (1,325), Jason Witten (1,228), Travis Kelce (1,063), and Antonio Gates (955) are the players ahead of him. He passed Tyreek Hill and Steve Largent, along with Gates, moving into 37th on the career list. 

Ertz had his first ten-reception game since Week 12 of 2019. It was his 12th career 10-reception game, moving him into a tie with Travis Kelce for the second most by a tight end. Gonzalez had 15 in his career. Week 9 of 2019 was the last time he hit 100 yards. 

DeAndre Hopkins, Baltimore - 1,000 Receptions

Hopkins became the 18th player in NFL history to log 1,000 career receptions. He moved past Hines Ward for 17th on the career receptions list.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore - 473 Receptions

Andrews passed Derrick Mason to become the Ravens' career leader in receptions. He had previously passed Mason for the yardage lead in Week 12. 

Deep Waiver Wire Names To Know

• RB Trey Benson, Arizona / RB Omarion Hampton, LA Chargers - There is optimism we will see both young backs return from extended IR stints in Week 14.

• WR Chris Godwin Jr., Tampa Bay - Godwin had his best game of the season in Week 13. Sterling Sheppard is the loser here, playing his lowest snap total with Tez Johnson remaining as the outside receiver opposite Emeka Egbuka and Godwin in the slot.

• QB Trey Lance, LA Chargers - Justin Herbert is undergoing surgery on his left hand. The hope is that he misses no time. Still, he has a broken hand. Lance has the type of dual-threat ability to become a meaningful fantasy quarterback if given the opportunity.

• WR Jayden Higgins, Houston - More popular than a normal DWWNTK, but Higgins has pulled slightly ahead in the multiple-player derby for the primary target opposite Nico Collins.

• RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland - Dylan Sampson was a Week 13 breakout. Because we cannot have nice things, he left with an injury and did not return. I cannot write an entire article about paying attention to production and opportunities, no matter how gross, and ignore that Ford could be the primary running back should anything happen to Quinshon Judkins during a lost season. 

• WR Malachi Corley, Cleveland - The Browns offense continues to hunt answers while Corley's role has grown over the past month. He could be another potential solution for Sampson's potential extended absence.

• QB Riley Leonard, Indianapolis - Daniel Jones is playing through a leg fracture. Anthony Richardson Sr. is reportedly not close to a return. Leonard has an intriguing, deep Superflex skill set, given the talented support pieces in the Colts' offense.

• RB Zavier Scott, Minnesota - Aaron Jones Sr. left with an injury. Scott reprised his early-season role as the passing-down back with Jordan Mason becoming the lead option. Minnesota's season is likely finished, and its offense is a mess; they should have little reason to push Jones through an injury.

• WR Jack Bech, Las Vegas - Bech had the second-most targets of any game, with three. He appears to have pulled slightly ahead of Tyler Lockett and Dont'e Thornton Jr. for the WR2 role. 

• WR Treylon Burks, Washington - Burks is a feel-good story emerging in Washington. He scored his second career touchdown, securing a highlight reel one-handed catch. More importantly, he played the second-most receiver snaps behind Deebo Samuel Sr. and could fill the third receiver role previously held by Noah Brown as Terry McLaurin continues to ramp up his involvement. 

Spike Week

Production comes from the most unlikely places. Reading the matchup tea leaves can flip weekly outcomes. The Spike Week is the holy grail for large field tournaments. These weeks could be signs of big things to come, or just a one-off blip because a safety took the wrong angle. 

Surprise players who crushed this week:

• QB: Jordan Love, Green Bay - 25.8 Points
• RB: D'Andre Swift, Chicago - 20.3 Points
• RB: Kimani Vidal, LA Chargers - 20.2 Points
• RB: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina - 19.4 Points
• RB: Kyle Monangai, Chicago - 19 Points
• RB: Bam Knight, Arizona - 15.3 Points
• WR: A.J. Brown, Philadelphia - 30.2 Points
• WR: Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay - 25 Points
• WR: Jameson Williams, Detroit - 23.4 Points
• WR: Adonai Mitchell, NY Jets - 20.2 Points
• WR: Devaughn Vele, New Orleans - 19.3 Points
• WR: Terry McLaurin, Washington - 19.1 Points
• TE: Zach Ertz, Washington - 15.6 Points
• TE: Brenton Strange, Jacksonville - 12 Points

Take Note