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We are getting into crunch time as trade deadlines are imminent. Some will be trying to put the finishing touches on contending rosters. Others will be looking ahead to 2022. It is a great time to start thinking of player values from the perspective of how you are going to rank players in a 2022 dynasty startup. It can help you spot players who are potentially undervalued and can be had slightly cheaper now than in a few months. This 2022 mindset will be a big focus of December’s dynasty trade value article.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Dynasty Web Apps
Please Note: Dynasty Web Apps will be updated in the coming days. They will incorporate Bob Henry’s rest-of-season projections along with the dynasty values you see below. Links will be added when updated
We recently introduced a customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the player values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. The newest version is available here:
We also made a simple dynasty trade value evaluator that allows you to analyze potential deals by entering the players and picks involved. It is available here:
These are still in the early stages of development so any and all feedback is appreciated (email@example.com or @hindery on twitter).
|1||Patrick Mahomes II||22||56|
Mac Jones is a good example of a player who has more comparative value in the two-quarterback format. He is a strong bet to be a starting quarterback for the next decade but may spend most of that decade as a fantasy QB2. There is plenty of value there in Superflex but much less so in a single quarterback league where all we really care about is getting QB1 fantasy performances. Remember that the basic math is different (how we value QB2 seasons) for dynasty values in single quarterback and superflex so the positional rankings will be different depending upon the format.
We are going to see a massive game of musical chairs at the quarterback position this offseason. Nearly half of the league is unsettled at the position.
The weak 2022 rookie class at quarterback could mean many players who we had relegated to backups will get another crack at starting. For example, Gardner Minshew may look like the best of a number of relatively bad options for one of these quarterback-needy franchises.
The instant impact of Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert as rookies are easier to appreciate with a year of breathing space to reevaluate. Having seen the 2021 rookie class struggle to make an instant impact, it makes the strong 2020 rookie seasons look all the more impressive.
Jonathan Taylor has pulled away from the pack at the position. Unless something changes drastically down the stretch, Taylor is going to be the dynasty startup 1.01 this offseason. The Colts are using him like the Titans did Derrick Henry and there are very few running backs who will get that consistent level of usage every week.
There is a huge group from RB3 to RB13 bunched pretty closely together in terms of trade value. It will be choose your own adventure this offseason. Want to gamble on an elite 90-catch back coming off of injury? Want to swing for the fences on the upside of a second or third-year back who has less of a track record?
There are going to be some landmines amongst this group (RB3-RB13) and picking the right player to target here is going to be one of the keys to a successful 2022 season. Ties should be broken in favor of youth.
The player who could make the biggest move in dynasty value over the next month or so is Javonte Williams. We all tend to gravitate towards youth and upside once we get to the offseason. With a strong finish, Williams could easily move up to the dynasty RB3. The four year age difference between Williams and other top backs like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara may not seem like a huge deal but as some say, you measure a running back’s career longevity in dog years.
The late-career renaissance of Leonard Fournette has been fun to see. He is a high-end RB1 option heading into the fantasy playoffs. Still just 26-years old, he could sign a long-term deal to stay in Tampa this offseason.
James Robinson seems to be in Urban Meyer’s doghouse, which changes the calculus some when projecting forward to next season and what we should expect from the split between him and Travis Etienne. The picture is starting to look rosier for Etienne. Then again, Meyer may not even be the one making this call.
The strong performance of Sony Michel last week may be a red flag for Darrell Henderson’s dynasty value both in the short term and beyond this season. Sean McVay’s talk of the importance of his back turning three yards into five or six and praise of Michel seemed like an indirect shot at Henderson.
The duo of young LSU wide receivers, JaMarr Chase and Justin Jefferson, has started to create some separation from the pack at the top despite Chase cooling off a bit. The five-plus-year age gap between these young wide receivers and the top veterans like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp is a differentiator.
The two wide receivers best positioned to challenge Chase and Jefferson for dynasty WR1 are CeeDee Lamb and Jaylen Waddle. Lamb needs to stay healthy and start stacking strong fantasy weeks. Waddle is a new name in the conversation but deserves to be considered given how productive he has been as a rookie. The playmaking has not been quite on the same level as Chase but Waddle is piling up the receptions and is well on his way to a 100-catch rookie season. In leagues with late trade deadlines, “overpaying” for Waddle now may be your only chance to get him because we should see his price rise this offseason.
Meanwhile, A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf both face questions that have hurt their value. For Brown, it is his health. Knee injuries have nagged him for years. For Metcalf, it is his offensive role. With Russell Wilson potentially on his way out of Seattle, this could turn into an even bigger issue.
Diontae Johnson is another player who deserves more consideration as a dynasty WR1. He has been one of the most consistently productive players in fantasy football and is only 25-years old. His value is held back a bit by the uncertain future of the Steelers quarterback room. However, as long as it is not Mason Rudolph in 2022, can it be that much worse than what we have seen from Ben Roethlisberger?
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Kyle Pitts has cooled off considerably but it is worth keeping perspective on the bigger picture. He will not turn 22-years old until midway through the 2022 season and is on pace for 1,004 receiving yards as a rookie. Considering the state of the tight end position and lack of consistent producers, locking in a strong starter for the next decade is going to be very appealing this offseason.
Pat Freiermuth has been coming on strong and is another player who we may have even more appreciation for this offseason when we all step back and take stock of what we saw during the season. We should grade on a major curve when assessing rookie tight end performances. It is worth remembering that Freiermuth is two years older than Pitts so it is not exactly going to be apples-to-apples when we are comparing their rookie seasons.
Jalen Hurts missed a game and Dallas Goedert went off for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. It is a small sample size but something worth storing away in the back of your mind if we see the Eagles make a quarterback change this offseason.
2022 Rookie Picks
This is a fun wide receiver class because there is such a wide range of body types and skill sets. We have some big-bodied power receivers like Treylon Burks and Drake London (who is a bit more finesse). We have speedy deep threats like Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, and Jahan Dotson. Garrett Wilson does not fit neatly into any specific category but is the best of the bunch. There may not be any elite wide receivers who are going to go in the Top 10 overall like we saw last season but this is still a good class.
Each of the other skill positions looks below average. In terms of recent comparisons, this profiles a lot like 2019 when NKeal Harry, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, and David Montgomery were at the top of consensus rookie draft boards. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is not the rookie class you will want to go all-in on. Don’t overvalue those early first-round picks.