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Sunday Morning Update
Saturday Night Update 7:14PM EST
Michael Pittman has been ruled out as he did not clear concussion protocol which was a complete surprise.
Primary Cash Lineup- 119.85 Projected Points
- QB Justin Fields, CHI, $8,300
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,400
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $7,700
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,400
- WR Calvin Ridley, JAC, $6,800
- WR Drake London, ATL, $6,200
- TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $5,300
- Flex RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,200
- TD Seattle Seahawks, $3,500
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE
- Miami (vs DAL) – 26.25 points
- Detroit (at MIN) – 25.25 points
- Dallas (at MIA) – 24.75 points
Week 15 Recap
Week 15 was a solid week, albeit nothing special as the Primary Cash Lineup ended up in the top 35-40% of lineups. Given that the lineup did not have either Jaylen Waddle who at $7,000 put up 24.2 points, or Christian McCaffrey who had 39.2 points at 40% rostered it certainly was a week that we will take the profit and move on to the next week. Overall, outside of Antonio Gibson, who struggled with just 6.0 points, but was 70% rostered, the lineup was solid across the board to put up 138 points. The one thing that helped with fading Waddle c McCaffrey was not having Ezekiel Elliott as he was a lineup killer at $6,500 and 52% rostered only putting up 7.1 points.
Total points scored- 138.02
- QB Matthew Stafford, LAR, $7,200- 18.52
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $7,600- 20.9
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $5,600- 6.0
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,200- 15.1
- WR Rashee Rice, KC, $6,500- 19.6
- WR Jayden Reed, GB, $6,100- 14.2
- TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $4,700- 13.7
- Flex RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $9,600- 22.0
- TD Carolina, $3,300- 8.0
Week 16 Bankroll Management- Be Smart
With last week’s results, it should have clinched a profitable year for this article with three weeks to go assuming that you’re following proper bankroll management processes of playing the same amount every single week. Week 16 is one of the more difficult weeks of the season. This is when we really start to find out which teams are checked out, which teams are giving guys more touches than they otherwise would get as teams look to evaluate talent, and which teams are still trying to play as hard as they can. Week 17 and 18 have turned into complete craziness, but we know that going into them it is a wild and unpredictable weeks. However, Week 16 has a little bit of that too, but it goes under-the-radar.
For example, how motivated are the Jets now that they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs and Aaron Rodgers is not coming back to save them? What is Tennessee’s mindset with the team potentially going back to Ryan Tannehill due to Will Levis’ injury. Carolina continues to want to win as they don’t own their own first-round pick, but it’s been a long season for such a young team.
The point here is that while this season has been great, let’s not get overconfident over the last three weeks of the season. In fact, if you wanted to even go smaller from a bankroll perspective because this is a nine game slate, going to have a significant amount of overlap with teams such as Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, LA Rams, Buffalo, LA Chargers, San Francisco, and Baltimore all being teams we’ve liked to target this season and not on this slate. How you approach it is completely up to you, but just know that we are dealing with some pretty bad, unpredictable offenses, and the one game that should be high-scoring is one that I am largely avoiding in Miami and Dallas, as both defenses have been great, and both offensive lines have some real question marks this week.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
There are still some uncertain situations that could change things, so be sure to check back for the Sunday Morning Update this week.
- C.J. Stroud will miss this week with a concussion. Case Keenum will get the start this week for Houston. Houston may get Nico Collins back this week, which would be a nice return for a Texans team that is not deep at the wide receiver position and would give Keenum a primary receiver as Noah Brown can be a complimentary guy, but likely is not a consistent primary receiver at this point.
- Tyreek Hill looks like he will return this week with his ankle injury, although is still questionable. If he were to miss, Jaylen Waddle could be in play, but Raheem Mostert would also get an upgrade.
- Green Bay’s receivers are a mess. Christian Watson is out, while Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are both questionable. Of the two, it seems as if Reed is unlikely to play, while Wicks barring a setback should be good to go this week. Both Wicks and tight end Tucker Kraft will see upgrades and are in cash game consideration this week, while Romeo Doubs could be a GPP play, although we really haven’t seen much upside from Doubs in quite some time.
- Also for the Packers A.J. Dillon is questionable this week, and this could be the biggest news to watch in Week 16. If Dillon is out, Aaron Jones becomes a tremendous play for the Packers as he should see growth on the 13 carries he had last week in a premiere matchup against the Panthers. If Dillon plays, which Dillon is saying all the right things about this just being a pain tolerance issue, then Jones becomes a more difficult cash game play as the volume just may not be there for the Packers running back.
- D’Onta Foreman is questionable this week with a personal matter. If he were to miss, Roschon Johnson would elevate into near must-start territory based on the matchup and price.
- Jonathan Taylor will return this week after missing the last several weeks with a thumb injury. The problem is his price, as it has not come down at all and he is the most expensive running back this week.
- Marquise Brown will miss this week with a heel injury. This should primarily help Trey McBride continue to be the focal point of this offense.
Cash Game Rankings
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| Quarterback | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Justin Fields | 21.2 | 8300 | At quarterback this week, it's probably best to not overthink it. Last week, Fields disappointed, but gets a great matchup as the Bears have a difficult decision coming in the offseason on what to do with Fields. Arizona is allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, which should be a nice change of pace considering Fields faced the most difficult passing defense in the NFL last week in bad weather conditions on the road in Cleveland. For Fields, he provides an upside that only Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott have, and both of those teams are facing difficult passing matchups in a game that could be lower scoring than most expect. Arizona has only faced one running quarterback this season, which was Lamar Jackson, and the Ravens did not take any chances against this Cardinals defense, but this is also a run defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, which could translate nicely to a big Justin Fields rushing game. |
| 2 | Nick Mullens | 17.6 | 7000 | Nick Mullens is in arguably the most talented offense in the NFL. With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson that is a mismatch for just about any defense, and Mullens showed last week he is more than capable of operating this offense. Completing 78% of his passes last week, Mullens carved through the Bengals defense for 303 yards. While the matchup is more difficult this week against Detroit compared to the Bengals who have had secondary problems all season, Detroit is allowing the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While some of this has been propped up due to their inability to stop mobile quarterbacks, this is still a secondary that allowed 20 or more FanDuel points to 8 quarterbacks this season. |
| 3 | Joe Flacco | 15.5 | 7100 | It seems unlikely that the Browns are going to run the ball against the Texans who boast a league-best 3.1 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs. Flacco has looked great, as he has thrown for 300-yards or more in each of his last two games. Having been with the team for less than a month, we should be able to expect continued growth from the Browns passing offense. At just $7,100, you're gettting volume from Flacco that few quarterbacks have, with Amari Cooper and David Njoku as primary targets for this offense. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Devin Singletary | 12.1 | 6200 | Last week, the game plan was to give as much volume as Devin Singletary could handle with C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell out. Singletary had 26 carries and 4 receptions totaling 170 yards. While the Browns defense statistically is great against both the pass and the run, but has shown more vulnerability against the run and especially on the road. The Browns are just 2-4 on the road, allowing 31 points per game in those six contests. Case Keenum is going to be asked to be a game manager and try to pull off the victory through the rushing attack and the Texans defense in order for this team to stay in the playoff race as a loss for the Texans would be not eliminate them, but would make things very difficult. |
| 2 | Chuba Hubbard | 12.6 | 6400 | $6,400 is an incredible price for a player who is largely going overlooked this week. While Carolina is not typically a team that we are looking to target, Hubbard has been a workhorse as he has 22 or more carries in each of his last three games. The matchup is ideal this week, as he gets to take on a Packers defense as they are allowing 5.1 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs over their last six games which is the third-worst in the NFL. They have faced a moderately difficult schedule facing Rachaad White, Saquon Barkley, Isiah Pacheco, Detroit's duo of running backs, Austin Ekeler, and Pittsburgh's duo of running backs. The lack of touchdown equity given the Panthers' issues throwing the ball, as well as Hubbard's lack of involvement in the passing game prevent him from being higher this week. |
| 3 | Tony Pollard | 13.3 | 7000 | Pollard has been disappointing this season, after there had been many hopes that he would emerge as an elite running back this season with the departure of Ezekiel Elliott. The reality is that while Pollard has not been bad, he just has not been anything truly special, as he's averaging 4.1 yards-per-carry, 60 rushing yards per game, and 20 receiving yards per game. He's likely going to be popular this week, although in reality, I'm not sure why. Miami's run defense has been great this season outside of a Week 1 performance by Austin Ekeler. Since Week 2, only one running back has topped 75 total yards (rushing+receiving), and no running back has topped 100. You're essentially playing the price, and the touchdown upside as Pollard does have 62 red zone opportunities (targets+carries) which is second only to Christian McCaffrey. The problem there is that he only has five total touchdowns all season. As someone who does not chase touchdowns, he's not in play for me this week, as he needs at least a touchdown to get to value, and may need multiple for you to feel great about him. |
| 4 | Aaron Jones (Only if A.J. Dillon is out) | 13.4 | 6700 | Aaron Jones disappointed in his return from injury and it was entirely volume related. In a below-average matchup, Jones had just 17 touches for 69 yards and 8.9 FanDuel points. This week, with A.J. Dillon still out, Jones gets one of the most favorable matchups of his season. Jones is rumored to be cut after this season as the team will save $12M in salary cap, so in a critical game for the Packers to stay alive in the playoff race, expect the volume to increase and Jones to be extremely motivated to show the Packers or a future team that he can still be the lead back. The Packers are devoid of two of their top receivers this week in Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, so expect this to be a run-heavy approach against Carolina who is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and a staggering 1.5 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. |
| 5 | Rachaad White | 15.6 | 7700 | On a slate that has very few elite running backs, Rachaad White is the running back that if you want to pay up above the Singletary, Chandler, Hubbard range would be the guy to target. White has over 100 total yards in each of his last four games, while averaging 22.5 touches during that stretch. If there is a concern, which has him ranked lower this week it is that he has largely done this against some of the weaker run defenses in the NFL as the Buccaneers faced Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Carolina during that stretch all are bottom-10 run defenses. The most impressive game was against Atlanta although their defense was also torched by Chuba Hubbard the following week. Jacksonville on the season has been very strong against the run, allowing opposing running backs to just 72 rushing yards per game which is the 8th-best in the NFL this season, but have shown some vulnerability against the run in two of their last three games as Baltimore and Cincinnati both topped 100-yards against this defense. |
| 6 | Ty Chandler | 12.8 | 6900 | Ty Chandler is a complete wildcard this week. He looked fantastic against the Bengals this past week as he had 26 touches for 157 yards and a touchdown, and is priced under $7,000. Most week's this would be a no-brainer automatic start. However, there are some concerns here. Detroit is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, as they have not allowed a running back to top 70 yards all season. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Drake London | 11.1 | 6200 | London is an above-average receiver, but has not developed into a receiver who can win in the most difficult matchups. That's been the story in two of the last three weeks as he was completely eliminated by the Jets and Panthers who are two of the three best pass defenses in the NFL this season. Excluding those games, we've seen the upside that London can bring as he had a 10 catch 172 yard perfromance Tampa Bay, while also having a 91 yard game against New Orleans over his last four weeks. This is a player who excluding those two games has seven or more targets in eight of his last nine games, and is too cheap at $6,500 this week. |
| 2 | Calvin Ridley | 12 | 6800 | Trevor Lawrence appears to be getting the start this week, which is significant for Calvin Ridley. Over the last two games, the team is relying on targeting Ridley frequently as he has 12.5 targets over the last two games with Christian Kirk being out. While Ridley has not put up the big numbers that many had hoped with those 12.5 targets, he had been facing two of the best pass defenses in the NFL, as both the Browns and Ravens are incredibly difficult to contend with. This week, he gets arguably the league's weakest defense as Tampa Bay has been allowed the second-most yards to opposing wide receivers, and since Week 8, the Buccaneers have allowed 85 receiving yards or more to eight receivers. |
| 3 | Garrett Wilson | 11.7 | 7000 | Taking wide receivers against this Washington defense has been extremely profitable this season. Now adding in that Garrett Wilson is coming off of a game in which he was visibly frustrated for his lack of involvement against Miami last week could lead to a more concentrated effort to appease their star wide receiver. It's been a disappointing year for Wilson, but this is still a player who is averaging 11.3 targets over his last 8 games. With Trevor Siemian starting this week, the matchup is a much easier one facing off against Benjamin St-Juste who is amongst the league's worst starting cornerbacks compared to last week when he was locked up by Jalen Ramsey. |
| 4 | CeeDee Lamb | 18.2 | 9400 | The decision between Lamb and Tyreek Hill or neither is as difficult of a decision as we've had this season. Both players are amongst the league's best receivers, and for me this week based on the price difference between Lamb and Hill along with the injury of Hill, it is either Lamb or neither. For Lamb, while many may be afraid of the Jalen Ramsey matchup, Lamb lines up in the slot 60% of the time while Ramsey has not taken a snap in the slot this season, so Lamb should see a lot of Kader Kohou who is a second-year undrafted free agent. Lamb has scored a touchdown in six straight games. There is some concern about the Cowboys and their struggles on the road after last week's performance against the Bills, but the Cowboys should be able to rebound this week against Miami who have struggled with the league's best teams. |
| 5 | Michael Pittman Jr | 12.8 | 7700 | It seems that we are getting a slight discount for Pittman this week after being knocked out of the game early against Pittsburgh, but still managed 78 yards in the first half. In his four prior games, Pittman was averaging 13 targets and 98 yards per game. The matchup is not ideal, as Atlanta has been a top-10 defense against opposing wide receivers, but we have seen number one receivers have success against this team as Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Olave, and Mike Evans have all had 80 yards or more against this defense which is what we are looking for with a receiver in this price range. |
| 6 | Dontayvion Wicks | 9 | 5400 | If you're looking to punt at the wide receiver position, Wicks is likely the primary guy that you could consider this week. With the Packers without Christian Waston and Jayden Reed, that leaves just Romeo Doubs and Wicks as their primary receivers. Wicks has taken advantage of the opportunity, as he's shown that he can fill in for Watson as a downfield threat for this offense. Wicks is averaging 58.5 receiving yards over his last six games, but is a boom or bust type player that is by no means a must play as he has two games over 90 yards during that time, but has three or fewer catches in four of the six games. The real decision point for most people is going to be whether they go Lamb and Wicks, or a different combination of mid-tier receivers. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Trey McBride | 12.2 | 7000 | Somehow, McBride currently is going a little bit under-the-radar. Most of the love is going to David Njoku, who we will talk about shortly in these rankings, but McBride is very slightly above Njoku for me this week. Since Kyler Murray has returned as the starter in Arizona, the Cardinals tight end has, 131, 43, 60, 89, 102 yards. The one drawback against him is the lack of touchdowns as he does have just one touchdown with Murray as the starter, but the volume is there compared to the rest of the team as he has five red zone opportunities over the last four games, while no other wide receiver has more than one. The Bears are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, as they've allowed 50 yards or more to David Njoku, T.J. Hockenson twice, Travis Kelce, Logan Thomas, and Luke Musgrave. The only concern for McBride is whether to spend $7,000 on a tight end, as the difference between Njoku and McBride is very small. |
| 2 | David Njoku | 11 | 6600 | Njoku has been unbelievable over the last two games. Scoring three touchdowns, topping 90 yards in both games and catching 16 passes over the last two weeks. The big question for Njoku is whether taking him this week is point chasing facing two teams that have struggled against the pass. Njoku has been a key contributor on this offense all season, the difference is that he now has a quarterback who can consistently get him the ball downfield as the Browns have largely been a mess at the position with P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson both playing multiple games due to Deshaun Watson's injury. |
| 3 | Tucker Kraft | 7.4 | 5300 | With both Jayden Reed and Christian Watson looking like they will miss this week, Tucker Kraft once again is a cheap tight end play that could allow you to spend up elsewhere this week. Over the last two games with Watson out, Kraft has played a big role as he is their primary deep threat averaging 15.1 yards-per-reception over the last two games and having topped 50-yards in each of those two games. Carolina boasts one of the league's best pass defenses, but they have shown a weakness against tight ends. Last week, we saw Atlanta's tight ends top 100-yards, as six tight ends this season have topped 40-yards. At $5,300, this is a risky play, but depending on your roster build could allow you to spend up elsewhere on a week where there are not a lot of great value options. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Washington | 9.3 | 3800 | The Commanders even with their struggles seem a little bit too cheap this week given the matchup against the Jets. The Jets have been sacked the second-most times in the NFL this season, and even with the switch to Trevor Siemian, the Jets have struggled. Siemian has been sacked on 11.3% of his dropbacks this season, which if would be amongst the most in NFL history if extrapolated out to those that qualify. Washington, even with their trade of Montez Sweat and Chase Young, have still been able to rush the passer as they sacked Matthew Stafford three times last week, and got Tommy DeVito 9 times back in Week 12. |
| 2 | Seattle | 9.3 | 3500 | If you need a cheap defense, Seattle is likely the play against Tennessee. We still don't know who the Titans quarterback will be this week, but Tennessee even with a run-heavy offense has been sacked the fifth-most in the NFL this year. |
Lineups
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
For better GPP advice, I would check out Dan Hindery’s Weekly GPP article as he breaks down in much more detail how to approach GPP’s every week.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 118.3)
- QB Justin Fields, CHI, $8,300
- RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,000
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $7,700
- WR Michael Pittman, IND, $7,700
- WR Calvin Ridley, JAC, $6,800
- WR Drake London, ATL, $6,200
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $6,600
- Flex RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,200
- TD Seattle Seahawks, $3,500
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –Cash Plus - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 118.4)
A cash-plus lineup is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Nick Mullens, MIN, $7,000
- RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,000
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,400
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,400
- WR Calvin Ridley, JAC, $6,800
- WR Drake London, ATL, $6,200
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $7,000
- Flex RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,200
- TD Seattle Seahawks, $3,500
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 115.6)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Joe Flacco, CLE, $7,100
- RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $7,000
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,900
- WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $7,000
- WR Calvin Ridley, JAC, $6,800
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,400
- TE David Njoku, CLE, $6,600
- Flex RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,200
- TD Seattle Seahawks, $3,500
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