Perfect Draft, 12-Team Home League

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From the head of Footballguys, Joe Bryant:

Footballguys coined the Perfect Draft article series way back in 2002 when co-founder David Dodds started the series. We featured detailed stat projections and the principles of my Value-Based Drafting system Footballguys was built upon.

Over the years, it's become one of our cornerstone strategy features, delivering a clear plan for crushing your draft. Our stated goal at Footballguys is to help our customers win more at fantasy football, and the Perfect Draft series is a big part of how we do that.

Way back in 2002, David identified two key principles for a Perfect Draft:

1. All Players Have Value

Most of life can be referenced in The Godfather movie. In this case, it's keeping it business, not personal. This means: don't love or hate players. Don't get emotionally attached. Your goal for a Perfect Draft is to draft players who'll significantly outperform their draft position.

I don't believe in "Do Not Draft" lists. I do believe in "I won't draft him at his current Average Draft Position, so I probably won't be getting him" lists

2. Understand Your Competition In The Draft Room

Whether it's players for your draft, a new car, or Pudgy Penguins, if you want to find a good deal on something, you first have to understand the market price of the thing. The going rate that most people agree something is worth. To find good deals in your fantasy draft, you must first understand your competitors' value of a player. In an Auction Draft, this is easy to see. In a regular draft, the cost of a player is their draft position.

You'll have the Perfect Draft when you select players who are more valuable than the cost of the spot where you draft them. You need to know how you value a player and how the other GMs in your league value a player. We provide this crucial information for you with our Average Draft Position Data.

I'll add four more.

3. Understand Your Scoring System And Your League

This one is the biggest thing I see fantasy GMs miss. It’s the foundation of my Value-Based Drafting system. Your scoring system matters. A LOT. Your starting lineup requirements matter. A LOT. The number of teams in your league matters. A LOT. You're reading a specific article written for a 12-team PPR league with a specific scoring system and starting lineup requirement. We’ll say more below, but in this league, you can very likely wait on a quarterback as they're less valuable. But that’s not all leagues. Fortunately, we’ll do all that for you with our Custom Cheatsheets or our Draft Dominator if you want maximum flexibility. We’ll do the work for you.

4. Flexibility

If you go in fixated on drafting two running backs in the first two rounds or avoiding running backs in the first two rounds or never taking a player over 30 years old or any host of inflexible rules you place on yourself, you won't have the Perfect Draft. Be flexible.

It's the adage of letting the game come to you. You need clear valuations of players. And you need a plan of how things may unfold based on what your leaguemates will do, and then you let the draft come to you. Respond appropriately as it unfolds.

5. Preparation

Think about it. Study the players. Tweak the values. And most importantly, think about how it will unfold. This is where mock drafting can be invaluable. Our Draft Dominator offers sophisticated mock drafting capability. If you do multiple mocks with it, you'll get different results each time.

In a draft setting with a short timer for each pick, there's little time to think. You need to have already thought. And execute based on the values you've already determined.

The very fact you're reading this article right now tells me you're on the right track with this one. Stay with it.

6. Get Your Guys And Have Fun

Regardless of the entry fee, almost all of us play fantasy football because it's fun. We think we know more about picking players than the other folks. Building and managing a team is fun. It's the foundation of our hobby. So have fun.

If you're a Dolphins fan and you hate Josh Allen - as every Dolphin fan should - you don't have to draft him. Even if he's there at a bargain. You can draft him. You can make the case that you probably should draft him. But don't remove the fun from the value equation. You don't have to draft him.

You'll see plenty we love below as our Clayton Gray breaks down the pockets of value that will help you win.

Pull up a chair. Settle in. You got this.

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Let's Have the Perfect Draft

This Perfect Draft is based on a 12-team league that starts the following players:

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (RB, WR, or TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

The league scoring is as follows:

• Passing TD = 4 points
• Passing Yard = 0.04 points
• Turnover = -1 point
• Rushing/Receiving TD = 6 points
• Rushing/Receiving Yard = 0.1 points
• Reception = 1 point

And in an 18-round draft, this will be your average roster construction:

• 2 quarterbacks
• 5-6 running backs
• 6-7 wide receivers
• 1-2 tight ends
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

Rounds 1 and 2

Take two guys (as long as you don't take two tight ends) from this list.

Note: In all of the tables in this article:

• OA is the overall ranking from Footballguys.
• The Home League ADP represents the current average draft position from each league host, as well as the average from all four sites. This gives you a better idea of when these players are usually drafted, but don't be surprised if the actual draft position in your league can vary.

Your Draft Focus: Core-Building With Elite Talent

De'Von Achane Note

Achane is battling back from a calf injury. If you were playing fantasy football a year ago, you remember Christian McCaffrey was battling back from a calf injury. Of course, no two injuries are the same, so McCaffrey's troubles don't really have anything to do with Achane's. However, fantasy football is supposed to be fun.

• If your idea of "fun" is shooting for the moon at every turn, then take Achane if he's the best player on your board.
• If your idea of "fun" is not having flashbacks to McCaffrey after you peel your second-round sticker, feel free to pass on Achane for a pick that's easier to swallow.

Round 3: A Quarterback?

If someone on the above list is available, take him.

Otherwise, you have two options.

Option 1: Don't be afraid to take one of these quarterbacks.

You'll hear and read in a lot of places that it's best to wait on a quarterback because there are always good ones that were picked late. In theory, that could be correct. In practice, there are also a lot of bad quarterbacks who are picked late. Hitting the right one can be akin to a dart throw. Plus, there are also receivers and running backs with potential available late in your draft.

There's nothing wrong with spending your third-rounder on an elite quarterback. You quickly resolve the position, and that can be a big bonus while drafting.

Your Draft Focus: A QB If You Want One

Option 2: Don't take a quarterback.

If you're anti-early-quarterback, here's your third-round list.

If you already have a tight end, avoid taking another.

Your Draft Focus: Keep Grabbing Talent

Rounds 4 and 5: Finishing the Core

Roster Check

It's early in your draft, but it's still important to monitor your roster composition.

Try to finish the fifth round with the following numbers at each position:

• 0-1 quarterbacks
• 1-3 running backs
• 1-4 wide receivers
• 0-1 tight ends
• 0 kickers
• 0 team defenses

Your Draft Focus: Keep Grabbing Talent

If two players are close in your eyes, think about breaking ties toward running backs. That position tends to dry up quicker in home leagues.

Your First 5 Picks

In general, you should take the best player available on that list for your first five picks. But use good judgment when making your selections. Remember, all these points apply to just this league.

• Don't draft all wide receivers, for example, with your first five picks. While those players may have been the best value at each of your picks, it's tough to have the Perfect Draft when you start with five players at the same position group. Remember, your starting lineup in this league only allows four wide receivers to be started each week.
  
  
• Mind the ADP when you pick. If the top two players on the board have ADPs of 5.12 and 3.07 (in that order) and your next pick is 4.04, the 5.12 player will probably be available at your next pick. So you could gain more value by taking the 3.07 player now and then targeting the 5.12 player next.
  
  
• But don't push those ADP edges too hard. If the top two players on the board have ADPs of 5.12 and 3.07 (in that order) and your next pick is 5.10, the 5.12 player might not be available at your next pick. It would be best to go ahead and take the 5.12 player now.
  
  
• It's probably not best to take multiple tight ends in these first five selections. It's hard to get good flex value from a tight end in normal PPR leagues. Plus, they aren't valuable trade pieces unless they are elite producers.
  
  
• Don't mind the bye weeks. There is plenty of time later in the draft to fix any bye-week issues. Plus, the roster you exit your draft with almost always looks different than the roster you'll have in Week 12. The Week 12 bye issues you stressed over during your draft usually go away on their own through normal free agency and trading.

Assessing Your Core

After your first five picks, you focus on rounding out your team based on need. This is a key point in roster-building:

The players you select the rest of the way are completely determined by who you have already selected.

Here are three specific questions you need to answer:

• How many running backs do you have? According to ADP, the average team will have 1.83 running backs after five rounds. You won't need to quickly target the position if you are above this number. If you are below this number, you'll need to return to running backs in the next few rounds -- maybe multiple times.
  
  
• How many quarterbacks and tight ends do you have? According to ADP, the average team will now have 0.58 quarterbacks and 0.5 tight ends. There's no need to worry if you don't have players at these positions. There will be value for you throughout the draft. If you have one, you can comfortably avoid taking more at that position for a while. If you have multiple players at either position, you're probably done at the position for the rest of the draft.
  
  
• How do your bye weeks look so far? In a perfect world, you'll have no overlap. However, overlap does occur, and it can be addressed. If you already have three or more players with the same bye week, you may need to actively avoid that week unless a player is just too good a value to pass up. You can also target players with a weaker opponent for that week. Note that the Draft Dominator will do this for you automatically.

After Round 5: Assessing Positional Needs

Before we hit this section, if any player(s) from the Top 60 are available, take them.

Once that list is exhausted, we'll examine each position and demonstrate how to fill it most effectively.

Roster Check

You should have finished the fifth round with the following numbers at each position:

• 0-1 quarterbacks
• 1-3 running backs
• 1-4 wide receivers
• 0-1 tight ends
• 0 kickers
• 0 team defenses

Now, let's finish out the perfect draft.

Quarterback