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Howdy Reader,
Welcome In.
I hope your 4th of July was full of the good stuff. Time with people you love, something tasty off the grill, and maybe a few moments to reflect on what matters most. And now we roll into the weekend. That's an optimized Holiday Schedule right there.
Thank you for all the kind responses to yesterday’s special email. I meant every word. Especially this part:
I believe in America.
And I believe in America because I believe in us.
And not to put too fine a point on it, but I believe in us because I believe in you.
We are what makes America. Regular people like you and me putting a greater good ahead of themselves and doing rad stuff. People showing kindness and generosity to each other. People doing their best to display empathy to one another and trying to understand when they see something differently.
This almost always looks like one thing: People assuming the best of each other.
I hope on this day today, you can be hopeful. Be encouraged.
Because we can do more than we think. Sometimes, it starts small. Showing empathy, assuming the best, and yes, even building a fantasy football community that’s about more than just bragging rights. Thank you for being part of that with us.
So let’s keep going. With hope, with purpose, and with a shared love of this game.
And speaking of the game, we’re loaded today.
Sigmund Bloom is back with his Tight End Tiers, and it’s a must-read for anyone who doesn’t want to be chasing streamers in Week 6. We also have a full slate of updates, and, of course, Sigmund and Cecil Lammey have the News and Notes you need.
Let’s go,
J
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What's New At Footballguys
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Tight End Tiers, Value Picks, and Players to Avoid – Sigmund Bloom brings the pre-camp heat with tiered tight end rankings, spotlighting George Kittle and Tucker Kraft as must-grab values and warning against Travis Kelce at cost.
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Chubb and Hopkins, the Expendables: The Gut Check No. 647 – Matt Waldman highlights Nick Chubb and DeAndre Hopkins as 15th-round afterthoughts — and makes the case they could be league-winners in disguise.
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NFFC ADP Movement: How High-Stakes ADP Is Changing – Clayton Gray reveals which players sharp drafters are moving up or down — with quarterbacks dropping left and right in NFFC ADP as depth reshapes the position.
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Dynasty Trade Value Chart: July – Dan Hindery reveals which players are quietly mispriced in dynasty leagues — and why Chase Brown, Rashee Rice, and Tucker Kraft may be steals right now.
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The 10 Must-Have IDP League-Winners as Fantasy Draft Season Opens – Gary Davenport shares 10 names that offer value beyond ADP — including Josey Jewell and Reed Blankenship
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Footballguys Classic Drafting Apps – Bruce Henderson brings back the classics with Draft Dominator, Projections Dominator, and more — fully updated and ready to win your league.
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Reading the New Defense: Dallas Cowboys – Tripp Brebner III dissects Matt Eberflus’s new-look defense, from Donovan Wilson’s shaky role to DaRon Bland’s dual deployment — and how it all affects IDP value.
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New Orleans Saints Fantasy Overview – The Saints are resetting, and Our Footballguys Staff doesn’t hold back. Chris Olave draws both sleeper and bust votes, while Juwan Johnson and Rashid Shaheed offer hope.
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Tight End Tiers, Value Picks, and Players to Avoid
By Sigmund Bloom - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Utilizing tiers in fantasy football provides several strategic advantages beyond simple rankings. Rankings are linear, but tiers group players of similar value together. This helps you recognize when there's a big drop-off in talent, so you don't overreact to slight differences in rank.
For example, suppose multiple wide receivers are left in a tier but only one player remains in the current running back tier. In that case, you're more likely to take the running back before that tier is eliminated.
RELATED: See Quarterback Tiers and Value Picks here.
RELATED: See Running Back Tiers and Value Picks here.
We'll cover every positional tier as the offseason moves on; today, we look at tight ends.
Cliff's Notes - The Top 7 Values at Tight End
- George Kittle, SF
- Isaiah Likely, BAL
- Tucker Kraft, GB
- Dallas Goedert, PHI
- Sam LaPorta, DET
- Tyler Higbee, LAR
- Zach Ertz, WAS
Cliff's Notes - The 4 Tight Ends to Avoid at ADP
- Brock Bowers, LV
- Trey McBride, ARI
- Travis Kelce, KC
- Mark Andrews, BAL
Elite TE1s
ADP only has Bowers and McBride in this tier. In fact, both are going in the second round of early drafts, while Kittle is falling to the fourth round. That's a massive discount for the player who actually had the highest PPR scoring average of the three. It's hard to justify taking Bowers or McBride early when Kittle is so cheap. It's especially hard to justify taking Bowers or McBride when they are decisively outscored by the wide receivers and running backs going in the same range of your draft. The last time I checked, you win fantasy matchups by scoring more points.
Bowers was everything we could have hoped for and more as a rookie. His quarterback play, supporting cast, and offensive coaching should all be improved this year. He could improve and pull away from the pack this year, but it would take a monumental season to justify his ADP.
McBride finally found paydirt in Week 17 after a nearly season-long touchdown drought, and he is clearly the foundational target in the Cardinals' offense. If Marvin Harrison Jr.'s usage and play improve in year two, McBride won't have to rely on volume to sustain his high fantasy value, which is good, because that prodigious volume will probably take a hit in any event.
CONTINUED...
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New York Giants QB Russell Wilson was the most impressive on the field in front of the media, according to one Giants insider.
Our view: Wilson is the heavy favorite to start Week 1, but he is unlikely to be the starter in Week 18. Last year he was strong at the beginning of his tenure as the Steelers quarterback, but by the postseason looked like someone ripe for replacement. In a best case scenario for fantasy, Jameis Winston would take over if that happens again this year, but head coach Brian Daboll will probably be more inclined to start first round pick Jaxson Dart.
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Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward said he is learning to move defenders with his eyes and adjusting to the closing speed of defenders.
Our view: We'll be watching the camp reports on Ward closely to project how rough that first month will be for the no.1 overall pick. He opens with Denver, the Rams, Indianapolis, and Houston, not exactly a cake walk. Don't be surprised if he has a rough start in both NFL and fantasy terms. Ward is going off of the board as QB25 per the latest Footballguys ADP, which reflects the hesitation to use him early in lineups - even in superflex leagues.
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3. LAR: Kyren Williams outstanding in red zone
Source: ESPN.com
Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams recorded all 14 of his rushing touchdowns in the red zone during the 2024 NFL season. He also caught both of his receiving touchdowns in the red zone.
Our view: The Rams have drafted running backs in the third round (Blake Corum) and fourth round (Jarquez Hunter) in the last two drafts, and both are bigger than Williams. Don't expect Williams to cede that red zone role, though, as the Rams love him, and are seeking to sign him to a long-term extension. Williams is a clear lead back in a great offense, but he's still available in the third round of fantasy drafts.
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4. LVR: Two rookie WRs should have early roles
Source: ESPN.com - Ryan McFadden
Las Vegas Raiders WR Jack Bech and WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. likely will have roles in the passing game during their rookie seasons since the Raiders did not make any big moves at the position during the offseason, in the opinion of ESPN.com's Ryan McFadden.
Our view: Thornton appears to be ahead of Bech because of his impressive OTA performance that highlighted his rare size/speed combination. Tre Tucker will battle Thornton for a starting role on the outside, while Bech is better suited in the slot. Jakobi Meyers can play both inside and outside and Brock Bowers will line up at wide receiver at times, so there's a lot to sort out here. In any event, the draft picks will improve the passing game and the running game, as both are spirited downfield blockers.
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5. CAR: Adam Thielen a big believer of Tetairoa McMillan
Source: PFSN
Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan's 'natural ability to understand the game ... has really stuck to me,' according to teammate Adam Thielen.'Mentally, his natural ability to understand the game ... I haven't been around too many guys that it just comes so easily to them this early ... the playbook, the little intricacies, the game within the game. That has really stuck out to me. The same thing on the field, physically, everything just comes very natural to him. He doesn't have to force anything or do anything that's kind of out of his comfort zone because it just comes so naturally to him. That's going to help him have a lot of success. And on top of that, he's a great human being. So those things created together usually lead to a long career,' Thielen recently told PFSN.
Our view: McMillan was arguably the best receiver in this class, so it's not a surprise to hear a veteran like Thielen praise the rookie's skill set. There's a dash of Mike Evans to McMillan's game, and he should greatly help the Panthers passing game and the continued development of QB Bryce Young.
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6. PIT: Jonnu Smith excited about joining team
Source: NFL.com - Coral Smith
Pittsburgh Steelers TE Jonnu Smith said he is excited about his move to the Steelers because he believes the team values him as a player.
Our view: Raheem Mostert took to social media to roast the Dolphins for their treatment of him and Smith in a sign that some players don't feel valued by the franchise. Miami also let Calais Campbell walk in free agency to Arizona over a few million dollars. The writing is on the wall that the Dolphins could be on the verge of a rebuild.
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7. PIT: T.J. Watt on the verge of record-setting deal?
Source: Rich Eisen Show
Pittsburgh Steelers LB T.J. Watt is expected to sign a long-term contract that will exceed the four-year, $160 million extension Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett signed earlier this offseason, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Per Pelissero, the 'most likely' outcome is that the two sides will agree to an extension before the season opener.
Our view: The Steelers have made a lot of moves this offseason, but apparently some teams found it curious that they didn't get this deal done before the flurry of activity, so there have been inquiries about Watt's availability via trade. If Pelissero's report is correct, those have been in vain. Watt is turning 31 during the season, so any new contract will be paying top dollar for years on the back nine of his career arc.
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8. MIN: Ty Chandler not a lock for roster?
Source: The Athletic - Alec Lewis
Minnesota Vikings RB Ty Chandler likely needs an 'inspiring training camp' in order to secure a roster spot, according to Alec Lewis of The Athletic.
Our view: The Vikings appeared to sour on Chandler during the 2024 season even though they had big hopes for him going into the year. They traded for Cam Akers in October and quickly phased out Chandler. Akers wasn't re-signed (he's in New Orleans now), but the Vikings traded for Jordan Mason, who will be in a committee with Aaron Jones. It's possible the team only carries two backs into the season, but if they have a third and it's not Ty Chandler, two undrafted free agents - Zavier Scott and Tre Stewart - are the other two backs currently on the roster.
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9. NO: Tyler Shough among 30 unsigned second round picks, expects to sign before camp
Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Charean Williams
New Orleans Saints second-round draft choice QB Tyler Shough said he expects to sign his rookie contract before the start of training camp.
Our view: Jayden Higgins and Carson Schwesinger were the first two picks of the second round and they became the first two second rounders to get fully guaranteed contracts. Now, Shough, and the other 29 second round picks remain unsigned as they seek fully guaranteed deals. This should get resolved before camp, but Shough's case might be more difficult because as a potential starting quarterback, he has the best case of the remaining unsigned picks to get a fully guaranteed deal. We'll be watching this as Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, and RJ Harvey - all slated to play big roles this year, if not become the starting running backs for their teams - are among the unsigned players.
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10. DET: Amon-Ra St. Brown tore up zone coverage last season
Source: LionsWire - Billy Riccette
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was one of only two receivers in the league to draw at least 100 targets against zone coverage in 2024 - Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson was the other - and finished with 91 catches on 107 targets for 1,048 yards (second most in the league) and 51 first downs. St. Brown led the league in targets, catches and first downs against zone for the second straight season while tying for the fourth-best zone catch rate (85.0%), according to Pro Football Focus.
Our view: St. Brown is tough to cover no matter if defenses use zone or man against him. He's caught over 100 passes each of the last three seasons, and we're projecting him to go over the century mark again in 2025. St. Brown's current ADP is WR6, and Fantasy GMs are taking him around the turn between the first and second round.
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11. MIN: Tai Felton to have limited role?
Source: The Athletic - Alec Lewis
Minnesota Vikings WR Tai Felton's rookie season will be 'spent mostly on special teams,' according to Alec Lewis of The Athletic.
Our view: Jalen Nailor is the third wide receiver and he has been very productive in the role as a downfield target with deep speed. The Vikings were probably looking ahead to Nailor hitting free agency next year and likely getting a deal from a team that they aren't willing to pay with wide receiver salaries going up at a higher rate than other positions lately. Felton will get a chance to be the third receiver behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but probably not until next season.
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12. TB: Baker Mayfield thrived on short stuff in 2024
Source: JoeBucsFan.com
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield accumulated 967 yards passing on throws completed behind the line of scrimmage in 2024 - the second-highest mark by any quarterback since 2018, according to Nex Gen Stats. Only Patrick Mahomes had more such passing yards in a season (1,058 in 2018).
Our view: Expect more of the same this year as new Bucs OC Josh Grizzard isn't going to reinvent the wheel. Mayfield needs to cut down on his interceptions (he led the NFL with 16 last year), but he was the no.3 fantasy quarterback in 2024 (standard-scoring leagues). While we're not projecting him for 41 touchdowns, Mayfield should still pass for around 4,200 yards and 30-35 touchdowns this season. Those projections make him a top-10 fantasy quarterback for 2025.
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13. PHI: Saquon Barkley better in second half of games
Source: ESPN.com
Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 1,245 yards and eight touchdowns during the second half of games during the 2024 season. He posted 760 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns in the first half of games.
Our view: The Eagles will want to keep Barkley fresh after a 480+ touch season when the postseason is added to his final numbers. 2024 fourth round pick Will Shipley had a great spring and should play the Kenneth Gainwell role at a minimum after Gainwell signed with Pittsburgh in free agency. AJ Dillon is coming back from a neck injury and could be the early down backup, but Shipley is talented enough to claim that role too. When you are putting together a list of backup running backs to target late in your draft, Shipley should be on it.
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That’ll do it for today, Friends.
As we slide into the weekend, I just want to say thanks. For reading, for showing up, and for being part of this Footballguys family.
We’re honored to ride with you. Every update, every pick, every win.
Take care, be good to each other, and we’ll see you tomorrow.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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