There were three main factors that had the biggest impacts on my thinking when updating February dynasty values:
- The NFL Playoffs.
- The NFL pre-draft process kicking into gear.
- The kickoff of the 2024 Best Ball season.
Those three events will be the focus of this month's article.
The playoffs may not matter for our fantasy teams, but we know our player values will be impacted. We see this every week in the regular season, and there is always an out-sized impact if a player has a notable performance in an island game (Thursday, Sunday, or Monday Night). The playoffs are the ultimate island games. Everyone is watching them. The last impression of each player is going to linger in our minds until training camp next summer. We will see a sustained value bump for Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, Sam LaPorta, and other top playoff performers for the rest of the offseason.
The NFL Draft process has kicked into gear. January answered our questions about who would return to school (weak RB class now weaker) and finalized our list of top prospects. The Senior Bowl game will take place this weekend, but we already have practice reports to consider. The past month also brought us loads of new information to consider, with reputable and well-connected personalities and scouts debuting mock drafts and player rankings. Take some of this early content with a grain of salt because things change. However, there are some specific pieces of news worth discussing regarding valuing 2024 rookies, which we will dive into in the 2024 Rookie Picks section below.
Last, the 2024 Pre-Draft Best Ball season has kicked off, providing plenty of new data points to consider from a dynasty perspective. These early drafts are littered with sharp fantasy players who have already begun to think about how the off-season is most likely to play out. We know redraft ADP has a major impact on dynasty values. The ADP is going to change wildly between now and the season, but it is still a fantastic way to judge current fantasy sentiment and how people are weighing the ranges of outcomes. Each positional breakdown below will include my biggest takeaways from the early best ball ADP.
2024 Rookie Picks and Players
Takeaways from Early ADP
As noted in the intro, one of the focuses of this month's article will be an attempt to gain insight as to where dynasty values are likely to end up based on early redraft ADP. It is an especially good temperature check on how the informed fantasy drafters feel about the top rookies. In the table below, you will see a column that includes Redraft ADP as of February 1, 2024. For the most part, it tracks with where players were valued here last month. My biggest takeaways from the early ADP include:
- It is instructive just how early the top rookie wide receivers are going. Marvin Harrison Jr. already has an ADP inside the second round. For comparison's sake, Ja'Marr Chase was a fourth-rounder in the same format his rookie season.
- Malik Nabers is going extremely high himself. For context, his ADP of 42.5 is right within one pick of proven young talents like Jaylen Waddle. Given he is three-plus years younger than both, his dynasty valuation of 30+ makes sense.
- Jayden Daniels is going relatively early for a quarterback and ahead of Drake Maye. The calculus when drafting a quarterback in dynasty is different than in a best ball tournament, but this is further evidence that Daniels has a good chance of going ahead of Maye in rookie drafts this summer. Daniels' rushing upside is hard to ignore.
- There is not a single rookie running back going in the first 10 rounds right now.
- The order of the backs is interesting. It is notable that Jonathan Brooks, despite an ACL tear, is the most popular redraft option. It is also somewhat surprising to see Blake Corum as the RB2.
- There has been some early Senior Bowl week buzz on MarShawn Lloyd and Ray Davis. It will be interesting to track ADP over the next week or two to see if those two get an ADP boost and potentially leapfrog Will Shipley, Audric Estime, or others.
| Quarterbacks | Rank | Redraft ADP | Start-1-QB Value | Superflex Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 1 | 115.1 | 15 | 46 |
| Jayden Daniels | 2 | 137.5 | 10 | 30 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 163.1 | 9 | 28 |
| Bo Nix | 4 | 225.1 | 5 | 18 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 5 | 216.9 | 4 | 14 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 6 | 232.1 | 3 | 12 |
| Spencer Rattler | 7 | 240 | 1 | 5 |
| Running Backs | Rank | Redraft ADP | Dynasty Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathon Brooks | 1 | 128.8 | 14 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 132.7 | 13 |
| Trey Benson | 3 | 141.4 | 12 |
| Bucky Irving | 4 | 151.1 | 10 |
| Braelon Allen | 5 | 158.3 | 9 |
| Audric Estime | 6 | 179.7 | 8 |
| Will Shipley | 7 | 203.9 | 7 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 8 | 204.6 | 7 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 215.4 | 7 |
| Jaylen Wright | 10 | 232.2 | 7 |
| Wide Receivers | Rank | Redraft ADP | Dynasty Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1 | 23.8 | 42 |
| Malik Nabers | 2 | 42.5 | 30 |
| Rome Odunze | 3 | 59.5 | 27 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 80.4 | 17 |
| Keon Coleman | 5 | 105.9 | 12 |
| Troy Franklin | 6 | 123 | 12 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 7 | 123.9 | 11 |
| Ladd McConkey | 8 | 153.4 | 10 |
| Xavier Worthy | 9 | 149.6 | 9 |
| Devontez Walker | 10 | 177.9 | 9 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 11 | 154.8 | 8 |
| Xavier Legette | 12 | 181 | 7 |
| Malachi Corley | 13 | 188.9 | 6 |
| Roman Wilson | 14 | 228.2 | 6 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 15 | 237.3 | 6 |
| Jacob Cowing | 16 | 236.8 | 5 |
| Jermaine Burton | 17 | 237 | 5 |
| Johnny Wilson | 18 | 233.1 | 4 |
| Malik Washington | 19 | 235.3 | 4 |
| Jamari Thrash | 20 | 239.3 | 4 |
| Brenden Rice | 21 | 233.3 | 3 |
| Jalen McMillan | 22 | 238.8 | 3 |
| Tight Ends | Rank | Redraft ADP | Dynasty Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 90.1 | 23 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 199.5 | 7 |
| Cade Stover | 3 | 235.5 | 3 |
| Jaheim Bell | 4 | 238.6 | 3 |
| Ben Sinnott | 5 | 239.1 | 3 |
It is always worth paying attention when well-connected scouts like Daniel Jeremiah start dropping mock drafts and player rankings. From a dynasty perspective, one major takeaway from Jeremiah's rankings is that he has seven skill position players in his Top 8 overall. If you have a pick between 1.01 and 1.07 in a Superflex league, you are going to land a top-tier talent this season. It is also worth noting that Jeremiah ranks Bo Nix highly, comparing him to Jalen Hurts, and slotting him into the top half of the first round in his mock draft (14th overall to the Saints). If you have a pick after the Top 7, Nix's emergence through the early part of this process is a positive. Another development over the past month is that it seems like there is a growing consensus that Bryan Thomas Jr. is the clear WR4 and maybe even in a tier of his own between the three at the very top and the big group that is getting projected in the late 1st or 2nd round.
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