Dynasty Trade Value Chart: February

Dan Hindery's Dynasty Trade Value Chart: February Dan Hindery Published 02/02/2024

There were three main factors that had the biggest impacts on my thinking when updating February dynasty values:

  • The NFL Playoffs.
  • The NFL pre-draft process kicking into gear.
  • The kickoff of the 2024 Best Ball season.

Those three events will be the focus of this month's article.

The playoffs may not matter for our fantasy teams, but we know our player values will be impacted. We see this every week in the regular season, and there is always an out-sized impact if a player has a notable performance in an island game (Thursday, Sunday, or Monday Night). The playoffs are the ultimate island games. Everyone is watching them. The last impression of each player is going to linger in our minds until training camp next summer. We will see a sustained value bump for Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, Sam LaPorta, and other top playoff performers for the rest of the offseason.

The NFL Draft process has kicked into gear. January answered our questions about who would return to school (weak RB class now weaker) and finalized our list of top prospects. The Senior Bowl game will take place this weekend, but we already have practice reports to consider. The past month also brought us loads of new information to consider, with reputable and well-connected personalities and scouts debuting mock drafts and player rankings. Take some of this early content with a grain of salt because things change. However, there are some specific pieces of news worth discussing regarding valuing 2024 rookies, which we will dive into in the 2024 Rookie Picks section below.

Last, the 2024 Pre-Draft Best Ball season has kicked off, providing plenty of new data points to consider from a dynasty perspective. These early drafts are littered with sharp fantasy players who have already begun to think about how the off-season is most likely to play out. We know redraft ADP has a major impact on dynasty values. The ADP is going to change wildly between now and the season, but it is still a fantastic way to judge current fantasy sentiment and how people are weighing the ranges of outcomes. Each positional breakdown below will include my biggest takeaways from the early best ball ADP.

2024 Rookie Picks and Players

Takeaways from Early ADP

As noted in the intro, one of the focuses of this month's article will be an attempt to gain insight as to where dynasty values are likely to end up based on early redraft ADP. It is an especially good temperature check on how the informed fantasy drafters feel about the top rookies. In the table below, you will see a column that includes Redraft ADP as of February 1, 2024. For the most part, it tracks with where players were valued here last month. My biggest takeaways from the early ADP include:

  • It is instructive just how early the top rookie wide receivers are going. Marvin Harrison Jr. already has an ADP inside the second round. For comparison's sake, Ja'Marr Chase was a fourth-rounder in the same format his rookie season.
  • Malik Nabers is going extremely high himself. For context, his ADP of 42.5 is right within one pick of proven young talents like Jaylen Waddle. Given he is three-plus years younger than both, his dynasty valuation of 30+ makes sense.
  • Jayden Daniels is going relatively early for a quarterback and ahead of Drake Maye. The calculus when drafting a quarterback in dynasty is different than in a best ball tournament, but this is further evidence that Daniels has a good chance of going ahead of Maye in rookie drafts this summer. Daniels' rushing upside is hard to ignore.
  • There is not a single rookie running back going in the first 10 rounds right now.
  • The order of the backs is interesting. It is notable that Jonathan Brooks, despite an ACL tear, is the most popular redraft option. It is also somewhat surprising to see Blake Corum as the RB2.
  • There has been some early Senior Bowl week buzz on MarShawn Lloyd and Ray Davis. It will be interesting to track ADP over the next week or two to see if those two get an ADP boost and potentially leapfrog Will Shipley, Audric Estime, or others.
Quarterbacks Rank Redraft ADP Start-1-QB Value Superflex Value
Caleb Williams 1 115.1 15 46
Jayden Daniels 2 137.5 10 30
Drake Maye 3 163.1 9 28
Bo Nix 4 225.1 5 18
Michael Penix Jr. 5 216.9 4 14
J.J. McCarthy 6 232.1 3 12
Spencer Rattler 7 240 1 5
Running Backs Rank Redraft ADP Dynasty Value
Jonathon Brooks 1 128.8 14
Blake Corum 2 132.7 13
Trey Benson 3 141.4 12
Bucky Irving 4 151.1 10
Braelon Allen 5 158.3 9
Audric Estime 6 179.7 8
Will Shipley 7 203.9 7
MarShawn Lloyd 8 204.6 7
Ray Davis 9 215.4 7
Jaylen Wright 10 232.2 7
Wide Receivers Rank Redraft ADP Dynasty Value
Marvin Harrison Jr. 1 23.8 42
Malik Nabers 2 42.5 30
Rome Odunze 3 59.5 27
Brian Thomas Jr. 4 80.4 17
Keon Coleman 5 105.9 12
Troy Franklin 6 123 12
Adonai Mitchell 7 123.9 11
Ladd McConkey 8 153.4 10
Xavier Worthy 9 149.6 9
Devontez Walker 10 177.9 9
Ja'Lynn Polk 11 154.8 8
Xavier Legette 12 181 7
Malachi Corley 13 188.9 6
Roman Wilson 14 228.2 6
Ricky Pearsall 15 237.3 6
Jacob Cowing 16 236.8 5
Jermaine Burton 17 237 5
Johnny Wilson 18 233.1 4
Malik Washington 19 235.3 4
Jamari Thrash 20 239.3 4
Brenden Rice 21 233.3 3
Jalen McMillan 22 238.8 3
Tight Ends Rank Redraft ADP Dynasty Value
Brock Bowers 1 90.1 23
Ja'Tavion Sanders 2 199.5 7
Cade Stover 3 235.5 3
Jaheim Bell 4 238.6 3
Ben Sinnott 5 239.1 3

It is always worth paying attention when well-connected scouts like Daniel Jeremiah start dropping mock drafts and player rankings. From a dynasty perspective, one major takeaway from Jeremiah's rankings is that he has seven skill position players in his Top 8 overall. If you have a pick between 1.01 and 1.07 in a Superflex league, you are going to land a top-tier talent this season. It is also worth noting that Jeremiah ranks Bo Nix highly, comparing him to Jalen Hurts, and slotting him into the top half of the first round in his mock draft (14th overall to the Saints). If you have a pick after the Top 7, Nix's emergence through the early part of this process is a positive. Another development over the past month is that it seems like there is a growing consensus that Bryan Thomas Jr. is the clear WR4 and maybe even in a tier of his own between the three at the very top and the big group that is getting projected in the late 1st or 2nd round.

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Dynasty Rookie De'Von Achane Davante Adams Jordan Addison Brandon Aiyuk Braelon Allen Josh Allen Keenan Allen Tyler Allgeier Mark Andrews Saquon Barkley Odell Beckham Jr Trey Benson Tank Bigsby Brock Bowers Tyler Boyd Jacoby Brissett Jonathon Brooks A.J. Brown Chase Brown Jake Browning Marquise Brown Treylon Burks Joe Burrow Jermaine Burton Derek Carr Ty Chandler Zach Charbonnet Ja'Marr Chase Nick Chubb Keon Coleman Nico Collins James Conner Brandin Cooks James Cook Amari Cooper Malachi Corley Blake Corum Kirk Cousins Jacob Cowing Jayden Daniels Gabe Davis Ray Davis Tank Dell Stefon Diggs AJ Dillon Jahan Dotson Romeo Doubs Demario Douglas Josh Downs Gus Edwards Austin Ekeler Evan Engram Travis Etienne Jr. Mike Evans Jake Ferguson Justin Fields Zay Flowers Jerome Ford Troy Franklin Pat Freiermuth Jimmy Garoppolo Jahmyr Gibbs Antonio Gibson Chris Godwin Dallas Goedert Jared Goff Breece Hall Marvin Harrison Jr. Najee Harris Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Justin Herbert Khalil Herbert Tee Higgins Justice Hill Taysom Hill Tyreek Hill T.J. Hockenson DeAndre Hopkins Sam Howell Chuba Hubbard Jalen Hurts Jalin Hyatt Andrei Iosivas Bucky Irving Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Justin Jefferson Jerry Jeudy Diontae Johnson Quentin Johnston Roschon Johnson Aaron Jones Daniel Jones Brevin Jordan Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce Dalton Kincaid Christian Kirk George Kittle Cole Kmet Tucker Kraft Cooper Kupp CeeDee Lamb Trey Lance Sam LaPorta Trevor Lawrence Xavier Legette Will Levis Isaiah Likely Tyler Lockett Drake London Jordan Love Patrick Mahomes II Drake Maye Michael Mayer Baker Mayfield Trey McBride Christian McCaffrey J.J. McCarthy Jaleel McLaughlin Terry McLaurin DK Metcalf Jakobi Meyers Kendre Miller Marvin Mims Jr. Jonathan Mingo Gardner Minshew Adonai Mitchell Elijah Mitchell Keaton Mitchell Joe Mixon David Montgomery DJ Moore Elijah Moore Rondale Moore Zack Moss Raheem Mostert Kyler Murray Luke Musgrave Malik Nabers Puka Nacua David Njoku Aidan O'Connell Rome Odunze Chigoziem Okonkwo Chris Olave Cade Otton Isiah Pacheco Joshua Palmer Trey Palmer Ricky Pearsall Michael Penix Jr. George Pickens Kenny Pickett Dameon Pierce Kyle Pitts Michael Pittman Jr Ja'Lynn Polk Tony Pollard Michael Pratt Dak Prescott Brock Purdy Spencer Rattler Jayden Reed Rashee Rice Anthony Richardson Desmond Ridder Calvin Ridley Bijan Robinson Brian Robinson Jr Wan'Dale Robinson Aaron Rodgers Mason Rudolph Curtis Samuel Deebo Samuel Ja'Tavion Sanders Luke Schoonmaker Dalton Schultz Rashid Shaheed Khalil Shakir Devin Singletary Ben Sinnott DeVonta Smith Geno Smith Jaxon Smith-Njigba Tyjae Spears Matthew Stafford Amon-Ra St. Brown Rhamondre Stevenson C.J. Stroud Courtland Sutton D'Andre Swift Tua Tagovailoa Ryan Tannehill Jonathan Taylor Brian Thomas Jr. Michael Thomas Jamari Thrash Tre Tucker Jaylen Waddle Devontez Walker Ken Walker III Darren Waller Jaylen Warren Christian Watson Deshaun Watson Rachaad White Zamir White Dontayvion Wicks Caleb Williams Javonte Williams Jameson Williams Kyren Williams Mike Williams Garrett Wilson Johnny Wilson Michael Wilson Roman Wilson Russell Wilson Xavier Worthy Jaylen Wright Bryce Young
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