FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 3

The key to Week 3 FanDuel tournaments is staying on top of the injury news. Projections and expectations for several key players and top offenses have been heavily impacted by recent injury status changes, and we will continue to get key updates right up to kickoff on Sunday.

Aaron Jones Sr. is a player who got a huge dock in my latest projection run. Kevin O'Connell confirmed Friday that Jones will play through his knee injury, but some reports out of Minnesota point to a limited role, possibly fewer than 15 touches, with Jerome Ford a candidate to be promoted from the practice squad to take some of the work. Jones himself said, "I don't know what kind of load I'm getting." I am projecting him for about 11 carries, and at 13 percent rostered he lands in only 1.4 percent of the optimal lineups, which makes him the worst play on the board relative to his popularity. Ken Walker III is healthy, but he has gone from a player I expected to be among my favorites early in the week to one who is harder to trust right now. Andy Reid said the Chiefs want to reduce his workload "a little bit" and get rookie Emmett Johnson more involved after Walker handled 56 touches in the first two games, so I trimmed his projection, and he now lands in 12.9 percent of the optimal lineups against 18.4 percent rostered. Bucky Irving is on what the Buccaneers called "a bit of a pitch count," which is part of why he shows up in only 3 percent of the best lineups.

The injury report also reshaped several offenses. Nico Collins, Rico Dowdle, Caleb Douglas, Chig Okonkwo and Mason Taylor have been ruled out, and Jaylen Wright is doubtful.

Zay Flowers, Jaylen Warren, DJ Moore, Keon Coleman, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr, Adonai Mitchell and Brock Bowers all carry questionable tags into Sunday, and I am projecting all eight of them to play, but figuring out how close each of them will be to his typical usage is difficult. Moore and Coleman are the two I am least sure about, since Joe Brady called both of them game-time decisions and their statuses may not be settled until inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. Bowers is set for his season debut after a meniscus trim, and ESPN's Dan Graziano reported that Klint Kubiak does not expect too many limitations on his snaps or targets. As of Saturday morning, I’m rolling the dice on him in GPPs, but I still want to keep a close eye on any updates we get over the next 24 hours. Dowdle's absence is why Warren is suddenly chalk at nearly 16 percent rostered, even though Warren was limited all week with a shoulder injury. I’m not as high on him this week, though that is more about the Bengals' defensive line than about Warren’s health or usage.

Finally, keep an eye on the weather in East Rutherford. The Giants and Titans are expected to play in a nor'easter, with sustained winds near 18 miles per hour, gusts near 40 and heavy rain. The total has already dropped to 37.5, the lowest on the slate, and I downgraded both passing offenses in my projections. Buffalo is also expecting wind in the 15 miles per hour range, which is worth keeping in mind with Josh Allen as one of the two most popular quarterbacks. I have not adjusted passing projections down for this one, but I am at least keeping an eye on it.

Every number in this article comes from my own weekly projections, which are built on a simulation of every game on the slate run ten thousand times. The simulation also solves the best possible FanDuel lineup in each of those ten thousand worlds, and how often a player lands in that best lineup is his optimal percentage. For tournaments, the key is comparing that number to our percent rostered projections, which Devin Knotts assembles each week. When the field is on a player far more often than he shows up in the optimal lineups, he is over-rostered relative to what the numbers say, and when the reverse is true, he is a leverage play.

At each position, I will show you which players are expected to be the most popular (the chalk), with the ones I think are worth going heavy on at that elevated percent rostered marked as good chalk, and then a list of other targets who are flying a little further under the radar and whom my process likes more than the field does.

Slate Overview

Before diving into the individual plays, let's get a big-picture view of the slate. The table below shows each team's implied total and how it compares to my season projection for that offense, along with two numbers that frame everything that follows. The first is how often that team's players show up in the optimal lineups across the ten thousand simulations, and the second is how often we project them to show up on the field's rosters. When a team's players fill more of the optimal lineups than the field is projected to roster them, our competition is probably overlooking that offense, and when the reverse is true, the field is probably overplaying it.

This is another 13-game main slate. Six teams carry an implied total of 25 or more, and three of them (Buffalo, Baltimore and San Francisco) sit at 28 or higher, with Kansas City just behind at 27.75.

Detroit Lions, 27.5

Detroit is the offense the field is most heavily invested in, and it is not close. Lions players fill about 84 percent of the field's projected roster spots against 54 percent of the optimal lineups, a 30-point gap that is by far the widest on the slate in either direction. Jahmyr Gibbs is the most popular player on the slate at nearly 37 percent rostered, Jared Goff is the most popular quarterback at 14.5 percent after throwing four touchdowns against Buffalo, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is the most popular receiver at 16.5 percent. Gibbs is still the player who shows up in the most optimal lineups (21.3 percent), so this is not a case where the field is wrong about Detroit's offense being in a great spot. The field is just going too far. I will have some Lions, but I want to be underweight on them this week and take some shots elsewhere.

Buffalo Bills, 28.75

Buffalo has the highest implied total on the slate as a 7-point home favorite against the Chargers, and the field is only slightly heavier on the Bills than the simulation is. Josh Allen is the second-most popular quarterback at 14 percent, and he also lands in the most optimal lineups at the position at 11.4 percent. James Cook III has a chance to end up under-rostered now that his percent rostered projection dropped to 13 percent, and he lands in 16.5 percent of the optimal lineups, second only to Gibbs among running backs.

Baltimore Ravens, 28.5, and Dallas Cowboys, 25.0

The Ravens and Cowboys meet in Rio de Janeiro in the highest-total game on the slate at 53.5. Derrick Henry has a 15.5 percent rostered projection and now lands in the optimal lineups at almost exactly that rate, which makes him good chalk in a week in which I don’t love the other RB chalk. Lamar Jackson is under-rostered at 7.3 percent against 9.5 percent optimal. On the Dallas side, George Pickens and Javonte Williams are both a couple of points under-rostered, while CeeDee Lamb is over-rostered at 15 percent against under 10 percent optimal.

San Francisco 49ers, 28.0

The 49ers are 8.5-point home favorites against Arizona and are the high-total offense the field is most underweight on. San Francisco players fill about 51 percent of the optimal lineups against 42 percent of the field's projected rosters. George Kittle (10 percent optimal against 7 percent rostered) and Mike Evans (9.3 percent against 4.1 percent) account for most of that gap, and Christian McCaffrey is close to fairly priced. Ian Rapoport reported that Evans has "a pretty good chance" to play through his hip injury, and at 4 percent rostered he is one of the better leverage plays among the expensive receivers. But again, this is one of those spots where any tidbit of injury news we can get will be especially impactful for our expectations.

Kansas City Chiefs, 27.75

Kansas City's implied total at Miami is 12 percent above my season number for the Chiefs, but the workload news on Walker changes how I want to get exposure to this offense. Walker is still the second-most popular back at 18.4 percent, and after trimming his projection for the planned increase in Emmett Johnson's role, he lands in 12.9 percent of the optimal lineups. Patrick Mahomes II at 7.7 percent rostered is also a little over-rostered, while Travis Kelce is priced exactly right at 7.5 percent both ways. The Chiefs are the rare 28-point offense where I am fine being slightly under the field across the board.

Cleveland Browns, 20.0

Cleveland's implied total of 20 is not exciting on its own, but it is 11 percent above my season number for the Browns, and the field is well behind the simulation on this offense. Quinshon Judkins lands in 12 percent of the optimal lineups against 7 percent rostered, and Denzel Boston, who caught five passes for 95 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay, lands in 7.3 percent against 5 percent. Carolina’s defense was a disaster in Week 1 but great last week against the Falcons. It is hard to know which performance is more “real,” but with star linebacker Devin Lloyd out, I’m willing to take some shots on the Browns, who have some of my favorite cap-saving options.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff at 14.5 percent rostered is the quarterback the field is most likely to overplay, and is the clearest fade at the position. He lands in only 3 percent of the optimal lineups, because the simulation sees the Lions leaning on Gibbs as 6.5-point home favorites against the Jets rather than throwing 38 times again as they did in their Week 2 shootout with Buffalo. Patrick Mahomes II at 7.7 percent rostered is the other quarterback I would go under the field on, since Kansas City's elevated implied total runs mostly through the running game in my projection, and a shootout is unlikely against the Dolphins. Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott are both priced about right at 6 to 7 percent.

Josh Allen, Bills, $9,100

Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate and one of the two most popular, and he is still good chalk. He has the highest projection at the position at 24 points, he lands in the most optimal lineups of any quarterback at 11.4 percent, and Buffalo has the highest implied total on the board. He is coming off a 40-point fantasy game against Detroit, and his rushing gives him a ceiling that no other quarterback on the slate can match. With the receiver group banged up, Kincaid is his most common stacking partner in the optimal lineups. The wind in Buffalo is worth monitoring, but I do not think it takes him off the board given that he’s scored multiple rushing touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens, $8,600

Jackson is the other chalk quarterback I am comfortable playing. He has the second-highest projection at the position at 22.4 points, he plays in the highest-total game on the slate, and he lands in 9.5 percent of the optimal lineups against 7.3 percent rostered. As I noted last week, Jackson usually reaches his ceiling when he throws for multiple touchdowns rather than when he runs wild, so I want him paired with Flowers, Rashod Bateman or Andrews. Pickens and Javonte Williams each show up as a bring-back in about 11 percent of Jackson’s optimal lineups. If we’re stacking one game this week, it’s this Brazil game, even on what has been reported to be a terrible playing surface.

Quarterbacks: Other Targets

Here are three quarterbacks, each projected at under 5 percent rostered, whom I am targeting in tournaments this week.

Kyler Murray, Vikings, $7,000

Murray is my favorite of the cheaper quarterbacks, and the Jones news helps him, in my opinion. With Jones limited, more of the Minnesota offense runs through Murray, who projects for more than five carries, and he lands in 6.6 percent of the optimal lineups against 3.7 percent rostered. He is back from the concussion that cost him Week 2, and the Vikings are 1.5-point road favorites in Tampa Bay (a defense that has been a pass funnel in recent years). Justin Jefferson is his partner in about a quarter of his optimal lineups. I will not lock in the 150 lineups I actually play until Sunday morning, but in my first run of lineups, Murray was in 15 percent of my builds, which is more than any other quarterback.

Tyler Shough, Saints, $7,500

Shough lands in 6.1 percent of the optimal lineups against 4.5 percent rostered, and Shough-Olave is the best stack on the slate (39 percent of Shough's optimal lineups include Chris Olave). He threw for 410 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit in the opener, and the Saints are a 3-point home favorite against Las Vegas. Brock Bowers shows up as a bring-back in about 14 percent of Shough’s optimal lineups.

Joe Burrow, Bengals, $8,000

Burrow is at only 3.1 percent rostered against 4.7 percent optimal. When the Bengals hosted the Steelers in Week 7 last season, Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, and Ja'Marr Chase caught 16 of 23 targets for 161 yards. Chase shows up in 36 percent of Burrow's optimal lineups.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs at nearly 37 percent rostered is the most popular player on the slate by a wide margin. He is also the player who shows up in the most optimal lineups at 21.3 percent, so he is a great play, but the field is about 15 points heavier on him than the simulation, and I plan to be well under the field (he was in 17 percent of my first run of lineups). Aaron Jones Sr. at 13 percent rostered is the biggest trap on the board for the reasons covered in the intro, and Jaylen Warren at 15.7 percent rostered is the second-biggest trap. Dowdle's absence gives Warren the backfield, and I expect him to get plenty of work, but this is a matchup I want to avoid. Dexter Lawrence II and the Cincinnati defense held David Montgomery to 10 yards on six carries last week (Houston's running backs combined for 18 yards on 14 carries), Pittsburgh's implied total is under 20, and Warren lands in only 6.8 percent of the optimal lineups. Walker is over-rostered after the workload news, and Ashton Jeanty is close to fairly priced at 13.8 percent rostered against 11.8 percent optimal.

De'Von Achane does not make either list, but he is worth mentioning. Achane projects for 16.5 carries and more than six targets, and he lands in 14.1 percent of the optimal lineups against 8.2 percent rostered. But this is one of those spots where I have a tougher time trusting the math because of how bad the offensive environment is.

Derrick Henry, Ravens, $9,000

Henry went from being projected as the most popular player on the slate on Thursday to a more modest percent rostered projection on Saturday, and that makes him good chalk. He is projected for 15.5 percent rostered and lands in 15.1 percent of the optimal lineups, and my projection has him at nearly 20 carries in the highest-total game on the slate with the Ravens at a 28.5 implied total. I am happy to be at least even with the field on him. In my defense-versus-position model, I factor in both this season's numbers and last year's early in the season, and that model has the Cowboys as one of the softest defenses against running backs.

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers, $8,900

McCaffrey is projected for 16.8 percent rostered and lands in 14.3 percent of the optimal lineups, which is close enough that I am comfortable being near the field on him. San Francisco is an 8.5-point home favorite with a 28-point implied total, and my projection has him at about 16 carries and six targets. The scripts where the 49ers pull away early are also the scripts where McCaffrey has already scored, and he pairs naturally with Kittle.

Running Backs: Other Targets

Here are three backs I'm planning to go heavy on this week:

James Cook, Bills, $8,100

Cook is the second-best running back in the optimal lineups at 16.5 percent. Buffalo has the highest implied total on the slate, and my projection has the Bills leaning on Cook for nearly 19 carries after he ran for 135 yards and a touchdown against Detroit. Cook was in 27 percent of my first run of lineups.

Quinshon Judkins, Browns, $6,100

Judkins is my favorite value at running back and the player I have the most of in my first run of lineups (39 percent). He lands in 12 percent of the optimal lineups against 7 percent rostered. The Browns' run game has been a disaster through two weeks, with Judkins gaining only 54 yards on 24 carries, and Todd Monken did not sugarcoat it on Monday, saying, "We are what the statistics bear out and we got to scheme it better. We got to coach it better. We got to call it better, and we certainly can block it better." That makes the run game a clear priority this week against a Carolina defense allowing 224 rushing yards per game, the most in the league. Judkins has handled most of the running back carries this season, and his role in the passing game grew in Week 2, when he drew five of the team's 30 targets (17 percent) with Dylan Sampson on injured reserve. My projection has his carries climbing well above the first two weeks, so this is a bet on the matchup and on the coaching staff's stated focus leading to a better yards-per-carry average.

Jeremiyah Love, Cardinals, $5,800

Love lands in 8.3 percent of the optimal lineups against 3.7 percent rostered, and San Francisco is a sneakily good matchup for him. The 49ers ruled out Nick Bosa, James Thompson Jr.. and Romello Height, and Kyle Shanahan said Friday that "losing six out of the 10 D-linemen in the last two weeks that have made our team is a little unusual." He added, "I don't think I've been a part of that, so that has been different." Love has been rotating with Tyler Allgeier, but I am projecting his share of the backfield to keep climbing, and at $5,800 he just needs to break one long touchdown run to return value. The Cardinals are 8.5-point road underdogs, which is the main risk. He was in 21 percent of my first run of lineups.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Garrett Wilson are solid options this week, but I wish they weren’t projected to be so popular. St. Brown is at 16.5 percent rostered against 10.6 percent optimal, Lamb is at 15.1 percent against 9.7 percent, and Wilson is at 14.1 percent against 9 percent. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is priced about right at 13.3 percent rostered and 11.6 percent optimal, and he’s been on fire to start the year.

Chris Olave, Saints, $8,100

Olave's percent rostered doubled in the Saturday update, from under 6 percent to 11.7 percent, and he is still good chalk. He lands in 15.6 percent of the optimal lineups, the most of any receiver on the slate, and my projection has him at 11.4 targets, also the most at the position. He showed what that volume can look like with 10 catches for 182 yards against Detroit in the opener.

Parker Washington, Jaguars, $7,100

Washington is the other receiver I want to be well over the field on. He is projected for 11.2 percent rostered and lands in 13.9 percent of the optimal lineups, and he is one of the three most consistent players across the lineup simulations along with Gibbs and Olave. My projection has him as the target leader in Jacksonville at about 9.5 targets, and Washington shows up in 35 percent of Lawrence's optimal lineups.

Wide Receivers: Other Targets

Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals, $8,900

Chase lands in 13.7 percent of the optimal lineups against 7.9 percent rostered, the biggest gap among the expensive receivers. He bounced back from a quiet opener with seven catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns against Houston, and my projection has him at 11 targets.

Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers, $6,800

McMillan lands in 11.2 percent of the optimal lineups against 8.4 percent rostered. He caught five passes for 101 yards on 10 targets against Atlanta, my projection has him at more than eight targets, and Carolina is a 2.5-point road favorite in Cleveland. He could see a slightly heavier workload than normal with Jalen Coker playing through a minor injury.

Denzel Boston, Browns, $5,600

Boston is the cheap receiver I like most. He lands in 7.3 percent of the optimal lineups against 5 percent rostered, and he is coming off five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. He has been the most impressive rookie wide receiver in the NFL through two weeks and has quickly become the top player in the Cleveland offense.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews is expected to be popular at 12.2 percent rostered, and he is the one I would go under the field on. He has simply not passed the eye test for me. Dalton Kincaid is a few points over-rostered at 11.7 percent against 8.6 percent optimal, but I may end up getting more aggressive in his Week 3 projections if the health news on Moore and Coleman doesn’t improve. Dalton Schultz is a solid play after catching 12 passes for 140 yards against Cincinnati, and Collins is out again. Trey McBride and Travis Kelce are both good plays as well. Overall, I think the market has tight ends about right this week. Aside from Andrews, I'm not fading any of these guys.

George Kittle, 49ers, $6,100

Kittle lands in 10 percent of the optimal lineups against 7 percent rostered. His usage has already started to ramp up, and he is the healthiest 49ers pass catcher, with San Francisco carrying a 28-point implied total. He is Purdy's most common partner in the optimal lineups (28 percent of Purdy's best lineups).

Brock Bowers, Raiders, $6,500

Bowers lands in 10.2 percent of the optimal lineups, the most of any tight end, against 6.6 percent rostered. He is questionable for his season debut, but he was limited Wednesday and Thursday before a planned day off Friday, and the Raiders are optimistic he will play. My projection has him at about 8.5 targets, and he is one of the most talented tight ends in the league at a percent rostered that suggests the field is still understandably hesitant. I get it, but if we get indications that Bowers won’t be overly limited in his 2026 debut, I’ll take a shot in 10 percent or more of my lineups.

Tight Ends: Other Targets

Hunter Henry, Patriots, $5,100

Henry lands in 8.4 percent of the optimal lineups against 5.5 percent rostered, and my projection has him at more than six targets with A.J. Brown still out. He is the cheapest way to get a piece of the Patriots passing game, pairs naturally with Doubs, and was in 20 percent of my first run of lineups. Jacksonville is a bit of a pass-funnel defense, and this game has sneaky shootout potential.

Isaiah Likely, Giants, $5,600

Likely is the contrarian play in the weather game. He lands in 5 percent of the optimal lineups against 2.8 percent rostered, and in a nor'easter, I expect the Giants' passing game to lean on shorter throws to the tight end rather than downfield shots. He caught eight passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas in the opener, and my projection has him at more than six targets.

Defenses

Tennessee at 13.7 percent rostered is the most popular defense by a wide margin. The weather in New Jersey should help both defenses, but the Titans are road underdogs, and I’m not sold that John Harbaugh is going to have Jameis Winston throw it much. New Orleans (7.3 percent rostered) and Cleveland (5.9 percent) are both a little over-rostered but not by enough to worry about.

Cincinnati Bengals, $3,600

The Bengals are good chalk at 7.7 percent rostered against 6.7 percent optimal. Pittsburgh has a 19.5 implied total, and Cincinnati is a 3.5-point road favorite. The right side of the Steelers' offensive line has been a disaster, and the Bengals' defensive line has been wreaking havoc.

Carolina Panthers, $3,800

Carolina is at 7.3 percent rostered against 6.4 percent optimal. I actually like Cleveland's offense this week, but there are certainly universes in which Deshaun Watson implodes in what could be the rare hostile home environment.

Seattle Seahawks, $4,800

Seattle is the expensive good chalk at 6.1 percent rostered against 5.3 percent optimal. Washington has the lowest implied total on the slate at 16.5 with Marcus Mariota starting for the injured Jayden Daniels.

Defenses: Other Targets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $3,700

Tampa Bay lands in 5.3 percent of the optimal lineups against 2.7 percent rostered, and the Minnesota backfield is thin with Jones limited. Expect a pass-heavy Vikings offense, which could lead to turnovers.

Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,100

Pittsburgh lands in 4.8 percent of the optimal lineups against 1.7 percent rostered. The Steelers are home underdogs, but the Bengals' implied total is 10 percent below my season number, and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. struggled last week.

Houston Texans, $4,500

Houston lands in 4 percent of the optimal lineups against 1.4 percent rostered, and Indianapolis has a 20.5 implied total that is 10 percent below my season number for the Colts. You can never go wrong with targeting a DST with two elite pass rushers when they aren’t expected to be popular.