As we enter June, startup season is in full swing. Nothing challenges your assumptions and requires you to look at player values from every angle more than doing a startup. Much of the changes in player values this month are based upon that introspection that came while on the clock and evaluating different options. This is also the ideal time of year to zoom out from the minutiae of scouting reports and tiny morsels of news from OTAs to look at the bigger picture trends in both the NFL and dynasty strategy. We will focus in on some of those trends this month, including:
- Why the top quarterbacks are probably undervalued
- The increased focus on targeting youth in Dynasty
- When it might make sense to go against the grain by investing in veterans
- Potentially misplaced rookie players worth drafting
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues with a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Dynasty Trends
Every month this summer while on-field news is slow, we will try to zoom out and look at some bigger-picture trends that impact our dynasty strategy. Some will focus on the NFL in general and how these trends impact dynasty strategy. Others will focus more on general trends in dynasty strategy and how you should react to them.
Young quarterbacks are ascendant and undervalued
Here are the Top 7 quarterbacks in redraft ADP (on Underdog) with their age in parentheses:
- Josh Allen (26)
- Patrick Mahomes II (27)
- Justin Herbert (24)
- Lamar Jackson (25)
- Kyler Murray (25)
- Jalen Hurts (24)
- Joe Burrow (26)
The average age of the top quarterbacks is just a bit under 26-years old.
With one exception (Hurts), we can feel confident these guys are not going away anytime soon. We are getting a real weekly advantage in the short term. We can see this both in statistical projections and redraft ADP (each of the seven above are going in the first six rounds). In looking at recent dynasty startup ADP of one quarterback leagues, no quarterbacks are going in the first two rounds. While other positions have less depth, the numbers and common sense say you should be prioritizing these top young quarterbacks just above ADP in the third-to-fifth round.
Another reason to prioritize this top tier of young passers is that the flow of elite young quarterbacks seems to have slowed a bit. The 2022 draft class was barren at quarterback and the 2021 class, which we thought was loaded, mostly struggled last season. It made more sense to wait at quarterback when we were getting multiple young stars in basically every draft class but that was probably always going to be unsustainable.
Dynasty drafters are getting sharper about age
Seven years ago, being a winning daily fantasy player was easy. Any contest you entered had a huge number of bad lineups. Find some good projections, make some good assumptions about ownership, and use a little bit of game theory and you were almost guaranteed to win. In 2022, the daily fantasy game has changed. Competition is stiff. Nearly everyone is working with great projections, hyper-focused on projected ownership, and there are a nearly infinite number of podcasts and articles offering strong game theory takes.
What does this have to do with Dynasty? It feels like we are heading in a similar direction. There has been an explosion of high-quality dynasty content, which has raised the level of dynasty discourse. My experience of late has been that, painting in broad strokes, dynasty competition has improved a great deal over the last handful of years.
Specifically, we are seeing an even bigger premium on youth than in the past. Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams would be first-round picks in most startups if we teleported dynasty drafters from five years ago to the present. It feels like we are now accounting for age in a more sophisticated and accurate way.
What does this mean for you?
- If you are still in a league where people are taking veterans way too high, simply taking advantage of market inefficiencies by focusing on youth will remain a winning strategy. For example, Tee Higgins (23-years old) is going just a few picks after Tyreek Hill (28-years old) in redraft ADP. In dynasty ADP, Hill is still going off the board earlier than Higgins. Low-hanging fruit. Sometimes it is as simple as “take the good young player over the good old player.”
- In many other leagues, these edges are shrinking and there is no longer the low-hanging fruit we have become accustomed to. We just have to work harder and be more aggressive in taking advantages of the edges that still exist.
Will the pendulum swing too far towards youth?
As noted above, the guys drafting 28-year-old running backs in the first round of a dynasty startup have mostly disappeared. However, in many leagues we are starting to see the pendulum swing too far towards youth. Passing on Derrick Henry in the first round is one thing. Passing on him in the fifth round is tougher to justify.
In some leagues, we are seeing this focus on youth taken to such extremes that the sharp move may be to just take the value on veterans who are dropping. If you use your early picks on top young players, there is no reason you can’t buttress that young core with top veterans. If half your league is purposely tanking year one and trying to take an extreme long-term view, the value to trying that same strategy yourself is greatly diminished.
We saw a similar pendulum swing too far in one direction a handful of years ago where it became en vogue to just shun the running back position entirely in the first few rounds of startups. It made sense at first when there was a ton of value at wide receiver but when everyone switched to the same strategy, all of a sudden there were so many major reaches at wide receiver and the best teams were those that took a more-balance approach.
What if we see players start to buck aging trends?
Part of the reason we have seen the dynasty community at large become more efficient at valuing youth has been the sheer amount of star players who have fallen off a production cliff in their late 20s in recent years. LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and others turned into fantasy pumpkins sooner than expected.
Past is not always prologue. We have seen that with Tom Brady. In other sports, we are seeing LeBron James, Steph Curry, Rafael Nadal, and others playing at extremely high levels beyond their prime years. It feels like with all the advances in nutrition and exercise, we may be due for some stars at other NFL position to buck the age trends. Cooper Kupp turns 29 years old this month. Derrick Henry is 28. Travis Kelce is 32. What are the chances that some of these top producers end up being outliers and put up some monster season into their 30s?
Have NFL teams figured out how to draft wide receivers?
Here is another interesting trend worth noting. If you look at the top NFL wide receivers over the age of 27 and what round they were drafted:
- Cooper Kupp (3rd)
- Davante Adams (2nd)
- Stefon Diggs (5th)
- Tyreek Hill (5th)
- Keenan Allen (3rd)
- Mike Evans (1st)
- Adam Thielen (undrafted)
In terms of draft capital, it is all over the board for veterans. Looking back, there were many years where the actual top receiver in the rookie class was a guy drafted in the middle rounds or later.
If you look at the top younger receivers, a much different trend emerges:
- JaMarr Chase (1st)
- Justin Jefferson (1st)
- CeeDee Lamb (1st)
- Deebo Samuel (top of 2nd)
- Tee Higgins (top of 2nd)
- Jaylen Waddle (1st)
- A.J. Brown (2nd)
- DK Metcalf (2nd)
- Michael Pittman (top of 2nd)
If you scroll down the dynasty rankings a bit there are some mid-round picks like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Darnell Mooney, and Gabriel Davis. But the overall trend is clear. The top young wide receivers were all high draft picks. This is something to keep in mind when it comes to rookie drafts. If the trend continues, we should be even more focused than normal on high draft capital WRs.
Player value change log
Dynasty trade values are now being updated in real time (instead of monthly) in the dynasty trade value app. This month, there were few major value changes due to the lack of big news events. Most of the changes detailed below were just minor adjustments based upon redraft ADP trends and further reflection on some of the bigger picture items discussed above.
Please note that the log has been ordered by how much the player’s value changed over the past month.
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