The Perfect Draft: 12-Team, PPR

Photo: Darren Yamashita, USA Today Sports

Footballguys coined the Perfect Draft article series way back in 2002 when co-founder David Dodds started the series. We featured detailed stat projections and the principles of my Value-Based Drafting system Footballguys was built upon.

Over the years, it's become one of our cornerstone strategy features, delivering a clear plan for crushing your draft. Our stated goal at Footballguys is to help our customers win more at fantasy football, and the Perfect Draft series is a big part of how we do that.

Way back in 2002, David identified two key principles for a Perfect Draft:

1. All Players Have Value

Most of life can be referenced in The Godfather movie. In this case, it's keeping it business, not personal. This means: don't love or hate players. Don't get emotionally attached. Your goal for a Perfect Draft is to draft players who'll significantly outperform their draft position.

I don't believe in "Do Not Draft" lists. I do believe in "I won't draft him at his current Average Draft Position, so I probably won't be getting him" lists like our buddy Matt Waldman put together here.

2. Understand Your Competition In The Draft Room

Whether it's players for your draft, a new car, or Top Shot NFT, if you want to find a good deal on something, you first have to understand the market price of the thing. The going rate that most people agree something is worth. To find good deals in your fantasy draft, you must first understand your competitors' value of a player. In an Auction Draft, this is easy to see. In a regular draft, the cost of a player is their draft position.

You'll have the Perfect Draft when you select players more valuable than the cost of the spot where you draft them. You need to know how you value a player and how the other GMs in your league value a player. We provide this crucial information for you with our Average Draft Position Data.

I'll add four more.

3. Understand Your Scoring System And Your League

This one is the biggest thing I see fantasy GMs miss. It’s the foundation of my Value-Based Drafting system. Your scoring system matters. A LOT. Your starting lineup requirements matter. A LOT. The number of teams in your league matters. A LOT. You're reading a specific article written for a 12-Team PPR league with a specific scoring system and starting lineup requirement. We’ll say more below, but in this league, you can very likely wait on a quarterback as they're less valuable. But that’s not all leagues. If you’re in a 14-team superflex league, quarterbacks are insanely valuable. Because the situation is different.

It’s why I put little stock in blanket strategies advocating for shunning a position. Zero-RB or Zero-WR blanket strategies are better for gathering clicks than they are winning leagues. You must know more about your league’s scoring system, starting lineups, and number of teams to understand the value. Fortunately, we’ll do all that for you with our Custom Cheatsheets or our Draft Dominator if you want maximum flexibility. We’ll do the work for you.

4. Flexibility

Author David Allen writes about a concept called "Mind Like Water." He uses the example of how the water in a pond reacts appropriately to whatever rock you throw into it. If you throw a big rock into the pond, the water accepts the big rock and essentially says, "Nice. Big rock". If you throw a pebble into the water, the water accepts the pebble and says, "Nice. Pebble". The point is whatever you present to the water, it accepts and responds appropriately. In this case, the water is flexible.

This is how you should approach your draft. If you go in fixated on drafting two running backs in the first two rounds or avoiding running backs in the first two rounds or never taking a player over 30 years old or any host of inflexible rules you place on yourself, you won't have the Perfect Draft. Be flexible.

It's the adage of letting the game come to you. You need clear valuations of players. And you need a plan of how things may unfold based on what your league mates will do, and then you let the draft come to you. Respond appropriately as it unfolds.

5. Preparation

Seneca said, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

Stephen Leacock once observed: "I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it."

Both these quotes apply to your fantasy draft. Your draft is no different than anything else important you do. The more prepared you are, the better you're likely to perform.

Think about it. Study the players. Tweak the values. And most importantly, think about how it will unfold. This is where mock drafting can be invaluable. Our Draft Dominator offers sophisticated mock drafting capability. If you do multiple mocks with it, you'll get different results each time.

In a draft setting with a short timer for each pick, there's little time to think. You need to have already thought. And execute based on the values you've already determined.

The very fact you're reading this article right now tells me you're on the right track with this one. Stay with it.

6. Get Your Guys And Have Fun

Regardless of the entry fee, almost all of us play fantasy football because it's fun. We think we know more about picking players than the other folks. Building and managing a team is fun. It's the foundation of our hobby. So have fun.

If you're a Bears fan and you hate Aaron Rodgers, as every Bears fan should, and seeing him do well hurts your soul, you don't have to draft him. Even if he's there at a bargain. You can draft him. You can make the case you probably should draft him. But don't remove the fun from the value equation. You don't have to draft him.

The other way I see this play is fantasy GMs afraid to get their guy because someone will claim they "reached." Forget about what people say. (Another area where fantasy football is like life) You're drafting players for you. So go get your guys.

Now, of course, there's a balance. Let's say you, like me, love Kyle Pitts. When I wrote this, Pitts is going near the end of the third round of 12 team drafts. If you're picking at the top of the 3rd and you love Pitts, get your guy. Few things are as sad as the GM in your draft who makes their pick and sounds like it's killing them. Draft players you're glad to have. It's way more fun.

You'll see plenty we love below as our Clayton Gray breaks down the pockets of value that will help you win.

Pull up a chair. Settle in. You got this.

Let's Have the Perfect Draft

This Perfect Draft is based on a 12-team league that starts the following players:

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (RB, WR, or TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

The league scoring is as follows:

• Passing TD = 4 points
• Passing Yard = 0.04 points
• Turnover = -1 point
• Rushing/Receiving TD = 6 points
• Rushing/Receiving Yard = 0.1 points
• Reception = 1 point

And in an 18-round draft, this will be your average roster construction:

• 2 quarterbacks
• 6-7 running backs
• 6-7 wide receivers
• 1-2 tight ends
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

Building Your Core, The Top 60

Below are the Top 60 players based on the above scoring system. These 60 players will be your focus for your first five picks and form the core of your team. Using the Draft Dominator will give you a Top 60 that is completely custom to your league. That custom ranking is highly recommended.

Your First 5 Picks

In general, you should take the best player available on that list for your first five picks. But use good judgment when making your selections. Remember, all these points apply to just this league.

• Don't draft all wide receivers, for example, with your first five picks. While those players may have been the best value at each of your picks, it's tough to have the Perfect Draft when you start with five players at the same position group. Remember, your starting lineup in this league only allows four wide receivers to be started each week.
  
  
• Mind the ADP when you pick. If the top two players on the board have ADPs of 5.12 and 3.07 (in that order) and your next pick is 4.04, the 5.12 player will probably be available at your next pick. So you could gain more value by taking the 3.07 player now and then targeting the 5.12 player next.
  
  
• But don't push those ADP edges too hard. If the top two players on the board have ADPs of 5.12 and 3.07 (in that order) and your next pick is 5.10, the 5.12 player might not be available at your next pick. It would be best to go ahead and take the 5.12 player now.
  
  
• It's probably not best to take multiple tight ends in these first five selections. In normal PPR leagues, it's hard to get good flex value from a tight end. Plus, unless they are elite producers, they generally aren't valuable trade pieces.
  
  
• Avoid the quarterback position in this league. While you can have the Perfect Draft while taking a quarterback early, you'll almost always like your team more if you don't.
  
  
• Don't mind the bye weeks. There is plenty of time later in the draft to fix any bye-week issues. Plus, the roster you exit your draft with almost always looks different than the roster you'll have in Week 9. The Week 9 byes you stressed about during your draft usually go away on their own through normal free agency and trading.

Assessing Your Core

After your first five picks, your focus moves to rounding out your team based on need. This is a key point in roster-building:

The players you select the rest of the way are completely determined by the players you already selected.

Here are three specific questions you need to answer:

• How many running backs do you have? According to ADP, the average team will have 2.00 running backs after five rounds. You won't need to target the position if you are above this number. If you are below this number, you'll need to return to running backs in the next few rounds -- maybe multiple times.
  
  
• How many quarterbacks and tight ends do you have? According to ADP, the average team will now have 0.33 quarterbacks and 0.42 tight ends. There's no need to worry if you don't have players at these positions. There will be value for you throughout the draft. If you have one, you can comfortably avoid taking more at that position for a while. If you have multiple players at either position, you're probably done at the position for the rest of the draft.
  
  
• How do your bye weeks look so far? In a perfect world, you'll have no overlap. But overlap happens, and it can be dealt with. If you already have three or more players with the same bye week, you may need to actively avoid that week unless a player is just too good of a value to pass up. You can also target players with a weaker opponent for that week. The Draft Dominator will do this for you automatically.

Sample Starting Roster

Here's a possible start from the 1.06 spot in Round 1

• Pick 1.06 - RB Derrick Henry, Ten/6
• Pick 2.07 - RB Leonard Fournette, TB/11
• Pick 3.06 - WR D.J. Moore, Car/13
• Pick 4.07 - TE Darren Waller, LV/6
• Pick 5.06 - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Det/6

Going through our three questions yields the following information:

• You are solid at running back and don't need to quickly address the position.
• You have a tight end, so you won't need to address the position again soon.
• You don't have a quarterback, so you'll need to consider taking one before too deep in the draft.
• You have three players off in Week 6. This isn't a huge concern, but you don't want to load up on more players with the same bye week.

Positional Needs

Now, we'll look at each position and show how to best fill each.