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Howdy Reader,​
Welcome In. And happy Friday.
Pull up a chair, relax a bit, and let’s close the week strong together. You’re here because you want to be that GM. The one who’s prepared, sharp, and always one step ahead. You're our people. And we've got your back.
Today, we’re taking the temperature on the Miami Dolphins with a full Team Vibe Check — plus the Sleepers, Busts, and Individual Defensive Players that could define your draft strategy.
Then Sigmund Bloom goes deep on Running Back Tiers. It's a must-read if you want to navigate this year’s chaos with confidence.
And for our Footballguys Premium Subscribers, Matt Waldman brings the magic with a bold, detailed case for Jalen Milroe. And trust us, nobody breaks it down like Matt does.
Top it off with the News and Notes, and you’re heading into the weekend ahead of the curve.
Let’s go,
J​​
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What's New At Footballguys
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Running Back Tiers and Value Picks – Sigmund Bloom unveils his 2025 RB tiers - including Ashton Jeanty's case for RB1 overall and the draft-day value of Chase Brown.
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Jalen Milroe Was the Right Pick: The Gut Check No. 646 – Matt Waldman explains why Jalen Milroe is the best dynasty QB value in the class — and why Sam Darnold won't stand in his way for long.
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Miami Dolphins Fantasy Overview - With Miami’s offense at a crossroads, Our Footballguys Staff raises concerns about Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and sees rising potential in Jaylen Wright.
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AMA Recap: Rome Odunze, QB for WR Trades, and Mr. Fantastic – Alfredo Brown calls Rome Odunze a must-draft WR and breaks down why Trevor Lawrence could finally stretch into stardom.
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Running Back Tiers and Value Picks
By Sigmund Bloom - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Utilizing tiers in fantasy football provides several strategic advantages beyond simple rankings.
Rankings are linear, but tiers group players of similar value together. This helps you recognize when there's a big drop-off in talent, so you don't overreact to slight differences in rank. For example, if multiple wide receivers are left in a tier but only one player in the current running-back tier, you're more likely to take the running back before that tier is eliminated.
We'll cover every positional tier as the offseason progresses; today, we examine running backs.
RELATED: See Quarterback Tiers and Value Picks here.
Cliff's Notes: The Top 16 Values at Running Back
- ​Chase Brown, CIN
- ​Jordan Mason, MIN
- ​Ken Walker III, SEA
- ​Alvin Kamara, NO
- ​Chuba Hubbard, SEA
- ​Isiah Pacheco, KC
- ​Jaylen Warren, PIT
- ​James Conner, ARI
- ​Roschon Johnson, CHI
- ​Josh Jacobs, GB
- ​Kyren Williams, LAR
- ​J.K. Dobbins, DEN
- ​Brashard Smith, KC
- ​Kyle Monangai, CHI
- ​Rachaad White, TB
- ​Sean Tucker, TB
Elite RB1s
These backs are the engines of their offenses. They are either on the upslope side of their career curves or in their primes. Their situations are good to great. Any of them could finish as the #1 back. Barkley will likely cost a top-3 pick, Robinson a top-5 pick, and Jeanty a top-8 to top-10 pick.
Barkley showed what he can do with a great line in front of him last year. He's a reasonable pick at #1 overall given the cost and supply of running back production in fantasy leagues. If you're looking for a reason to sell Barkley, it's fair to wonder if he can reach the same level coming off a 378-touch regular season followed by a 104-touch postseason.
Robinson has had to deal with the turbulence of bad quarterback play and Arthur Smith, but he is cleared for takeoff with Michael Penix ​Jr. at quarterback, Zac Robinson running the offense, and a strong supporting cast. A year from now, Robinson could be the consensus #1 pick.
Jeanty should immediately be the Raiders' signature offensive player. He'll be running behind a solid line with Chip Kelly calling the shots and Geno Smith at quarterback, which is a more than good enough environment to support immediate elite numbers. Jeanty has inexhaustible stamina, a strong resume as a receiver, and an old-school head coach. He could be the best pick of the first round this year.
Almost Elite RB1
Gibbs was Robinson's equal last year, but in any given week, David Montgomery is more likely to vulture touchdowns from Gibbs than Tyler Allgeier is to vulture scores from Robinson. Gibbs is a strong fantasy RB1, but he's essentially in a timeshare backfield, which limits his season-long ceiling to below that of the elite backs unless David Montgomery misses significant time. Gibbs is going ahead of Jeanty. Whether you take Gibbs or Jeanty as the RB3 in your draft depends on whether you value ceiling or floor. Both are worthy picks in the mid-first.
Time to Pull the Ripcord? RB1s
CONTINUED...
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Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers plans to spend time with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to find a 'middle ground' between Rodgers' 'pass-happy' approach and Smith's 'run-heavy' play-calling, according to The Athletic's Mike DeFabo.
Our view: Rodgers finished second in the NFL in pass attempts last season while Smith called the fourth-most running plays. It will be a different look for Rodgers this season, and that will include fewer passing attempts. However, expect Rodgers to thrive on play-action passing if/when the Steelers are running the ball effectively.
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Seattle Seahawks WR Cooper Kupp 'looked the part' of 'a legitimate complementary piece' to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba during minicamp and OTAs, in the opinion of Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic, who writes that Kupp 'still has enough wiggle, understanding of leverage and quickness' to make things difficult for defenses both in underneath routes and the red zone.
Our view: Kupp can be an immediate favorite target for QB Sam Darnold, and that has a certain amount of fantasy value. He could easily be a weekly flex play or at least a deep flex play for Fantasy GMs on a weekly basis.
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3. NYJ: Justin Fields putting in the work
Source: The Athletic - Zack Rosenblatt
New York Jets QB Justin Fields has been a 'workaholic' this offseason, according to offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. 'He comes in early, he's here late, and he's trying to digest everything and download all the information and do things the right way,' Engstrand said.
Our view: Fields has a chip on his shoulder, and that could benefit the Jets and Fantasy GMs out there. With his rushing ability, Fields is automatically a potential QB1 from a fantasy perspective. Add in the talent around him on offense like WR Garrett Wilson, and Fields could finish the season as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. If you're streaming quarterbacks, Fields is certainly an option you can get later in your drafts.
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4. NFL: Justin Tucker given 10-game ban
Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter
Free-agent PK Justin Tucker (Ravens) was suspended by the NFL for the first 10 games of the 2025 season for violating the league's personal conduct policy on Thursday, June 26.
Our view: There were 16 massage therapists that accused Tucker of sexual misconduct, and the Ravens let their long-time kicker go back in May. The NFL investigated this situation for months, and they've decided to suspend him for over half the 2025 season. There is a chance some team adds him before training camp where Tucker could get work in the preseason. He will be eligible for reinstatement on Tuesday, November 11th.
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5. GB: Matthew Golden winning over QB
Source: ESPN.com - Rob Demovsky
Green Bay Packers WR Matthew Golden was immediately impressive during minicamp, according to QB Jordan Love. 'I think from the get-go, from day one when he got here, he's showcased kind of just the versatility he has running routes, the speed he has and his ability to catch,' Love said
Our view: Golden has a ton of speed, and he can be a blur on the field. That's one of the many reasons why the Packers broke a 23-year streak of not taking a wide receiver in the first round and picked Golden with the no.23 overall pick. Earning Love's trust early is great for his career start. We like the rookie speedster as a deep flex or 'what the heck' flex for Fantasy GMs in 2025.
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6. NYJ: Mason Taylor making an impression as a blocker
Source: NewYorkJets.com - Susanna Weir
New York Jets TE Mason Taylor flashed his potential as a pass-catcher during organized team activities, but head coach Aaron Glenn was more impressed with his blocking.'I think he's been doing an outstanding job in that aspect. And it's not just the pass catching, because that's what you guys see, that's what you guys really think is an a-ha moment, but the blocking is what really gets me going,' Glenn recently told the team's website.
Our view: It's not sexy, but being a great blocker is what can get Taylor on the field more often as a rookie. His skill as a pass-catcher is already known from his college tape, and Taylor should be used effectively in that role catching passes from QB Justin Fields. He's a TE2 as a rookie, but those who stream tight ends can look to Taylor for depth.
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7. JAX: Solid offseason for Dyami Brown
Source: Jacksonville.com - Juston W. Lewis
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Dyami Brown was one of the standout performers during offseason workouts, in the opinion of The Florida Times-Union's Juston Lewis.
Our view: Let's see what Brown can do in training camp and the preseason. The veteran receiver is a speedy player who can take the top off the defense. With Brian Thomas and no.2 overall pick Travis Hunter, Brown could work as the no.3 receiver for the Jaguars. In a pass-happy offense under HC Liam Coen, Brown could have end-of-the-bench fantasy value.
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8. TEN: Cam Ward not afraid
Source: ESPN.com - Turron Davenport
Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward 'didn't shy away from throws' during minicamp, according to head coach Brian Callahan.
Our view: It's not in Ward's DNA to be scared of anything on the football field. He's a fearless passer and will attack downfield in coverage. That's a fine asset and a double-edged sword for the rookie. Ward and the Titans have arguably the best defense in the league (Broncos) as their opponent in Week 1. Get ready for Pat Surtain and company to have plenty of opportunities against the rookie quarterback.
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9. NE: Two WRs worked with starters
Source: Boston Herald - Doug Kyed
New England Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne and WR Kayshon Boutte received work with the first-team offense during offseason practices.
Our view: The Patriots have an interesting group of receivers...for many reasons. Stefon Diggs and Demario Douglas are the top two receivers, and guys like Bourne and Boutte will be working behind them. Both Bourne and Boutte are intriguing dynasty prospects we like in those formats, especially with the expected growth from QB Drake Maye.
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10. BAL: John Harbaugh praises Devontez Walker's upside
Source: BaltimoreRavens.com - Ryan Mink
Baltimore Ravens WR Devontez Walker has a 'chance to be really good,' according to head coach John Harbaugh.'Every day, all he does is show up and go 100 miles an hour. He's got a chance to be really good,' Harbaugh told the team's website.
Our view: We appreciate Walker in dynasty formats..and for good reason. A fourth-round pick out of North Carolina in the 2024 NFL Draft, Walker didn't do much as a rookie for the Ravens. He had only one catch, but it was for a 21-yard touchdown against the Giants. This offseason, reports indicate Walker has been working on learning the playbook to play with more confidence. The ball skills and body control are there for Walker to be a reliable target. We'll see him compete for a roster spot behind Rashod Bateman, DeAndre Hopkins, and Zay Flowers.
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11. TB: Todd Bowles, Jason Licht extended
Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht signed multi-year contract extensions Thursday, June 26, according to sources. Bowles enters his fourth year as the Bucs' head coach after leading the team to three consecutive NFC South titles from 2022-24. Licht is the NFL's fifth-longest tenured traditional general manager, entering his 12th season as the team's GM.
Our view: Bowles has a 27-24 record over the last three seasons, each time with a postseason run attached. The Buccaneers have won the NFC South each season, but they've yet to make a deep playoff run. Licht has done some solid work in the draft and free agency since they won a Super Bowl with Tom Brady. Now, with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, expect them to be division champs again with designs on making it at least to the Divisional Round.
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That’s it for today, Folks.
Thanks for spending part of your Friday with us. Whether you’re sneaking in a quick read at work, winding down for the weekend, or already thinking about your next draft, we’re grateful to be in your corner.
Enjoy your weekend, rest up, and drop a Dolphins hot take in the group chat…
We’ll see you tomorrow with more.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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