Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update: 10:22 AM EST
Big Update this morning. Raheem Mostert will miss this week due to his knee and ankle injury. This puts De'Vone Achane into a tremendous position this week at just $6,900. However, this completely changes the lineup, as it becomes even more difficult to fit Christian McCaffrey into the lineup. I've made the decision to move away from McCaffrey this week. This allows me to do a couple of things. Most notably move up from Davante Adams to Chris Olave. While it may seem like splitting hairs between the two receivers, I have Olave just slightly ahead of Adams this week, and it also removes the risk of having both Zamir White and Adams in the same lineup. Moving off of McCaffrey also allows for upgrading at the tight end position. Not having George Kittle this week is a significant risk, as I expect he will be the most popular play this week at the position. This is a situation where I'll just try to be different at other positions than forcing a fade of a player who has as much upside as any player at the tight end position.
Projected Points 121.14
- QB Jarrett Stidham, DEN, $6,100
- RB Zamir White, LV, $6,100
- RB De'Von Achane, MIA, $6,900
- WR Chris Olave, NO, 7,400
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,300
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, TEN, $6,700
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,700
- Flex RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $9,400
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,400
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE
- San Francisco (at WAS) – 31.0 points
- Philadelphia (vs ARI) – 28.5 points
- Kansas City (vs CIN) – 26.5 points
- Buffalo (vs NE) – 26.25 points
- Baltimore (vs MIA) – 25.0 points
Week 16 Recap
Week 16 was another great week as we look to close the season off strong. This was a sweat for most of the day, as the lineup got off to a relatively slow start, but some second-half performances from CeeDee Lamb and Calvin Ridley adding two touchdowns ultimately sealed the deal. Justin Fields at quarterback was the most popular play of the day but ended up being a right call as his 97 yards rushing and a touchdown were critical in his 25.5 performance.
Total Points: 127.0
- QB Justin Fields, CHI, $8,300- 25.5
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,400- 11.6
- RB Rachaad White, TB, $7,700- 16.7
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $9,400- 22.2
- WR Calvin Ridley, JAC, $6,800- 22.8
- WR Drake London, ATL, $6,200- 5.4
- TE Tucker Kraft, GB, $5,300- 8.0
- Flex RB Devin Singletary, HOU, $6,200- 7.8
- TD Seattle Seahawks, $3,500- 7.0
Week 17 Determining Motivation
This will almost certainly be more relevant in Week 18, but it is something to start thinking about in Week 17.
Motivation in the NFL is always a tricky one. The problem with it is that it is not an exact science, but rather probability based on historical trends of what teams ultimately look like they still care heading into the offseason. For DFS, this can be critical to determine, as trying to decipher what players are going to get the full allotment of snaps, the same level of output/production, or just the overall effectiveness of the team.
A lot of DFS players will only target teams that still have something to play for, and quite frankly I believe this is incorrect. The way to handle this is traditionally it is safe to target teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention for a while now. A team like the Chargers already had their “quit” moment, when they lost 63-21 against the Raiders. NFL teams are still professionals, and very rarely have two of those types of performances, as we saw the Chargers compete last week against the Bills.
The teams that you want to typically avoid are teams that have just recently been eliminated from playoff contention or their playoff chances have gone to basically zero. A team that is prime for a letdown here is the Broncos. They have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs after fighting back from a horrendous start to the season. Now, the team is resting Russell Wilson for Jarrett Stidham over contractual language for next year, when a lot of the players on this year’s roster likely don’t care about next year as they may not even be back with the team.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
There are a number of game-time decisions this week that will have a significant impact on the Primary Cash Lineup. Check back on Sunday Morning for the latest update as usual. There are a ton of illness situations going around the NFL at the moment, so players can certainly be added to this list at any moment.
- Josh Jacobs is doubtful for this game with a thigh injury. Zamir White will step in and be one of the top fantasy plays this week after a 22-carry performance that ultimately helped the Raiders beat Kansas City and keep their playoff hopes alive.
- The Chiefs running back room could be in trouble this week as both Isiah Pacheco (concussion) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) have been absent from practice this week. If either one of these players plays, they would be strong plays against Cincinnati which has been one of the worst defensive units this season. If both miss, La’Mical Perine is the last man standing in that backfield and at $4,800 would become a tremendous play.
- Trevor Lawrence will miss this week with a shoulder injury. C.J. Beathard will get the start. With Beathard, Evan Engram should see a significant workload this week as the tight end had seven targets in Beathard’s three drives filling in for Lawrence.
- Russell Wilson has been benched, and Jarrett Stidham will get the start. Stidham has shown that he is more than capable of leading an offense in his two starts last season.
- Courtland Sutton is out for Denver. This could open up some opportunities for Jerry Jeudy, although he’s likely not cheap enough at $6,200.
- Jaylen Waddle is out with an ankle injury. Cedrick Wilson is getting a lot of interest around the fantasy industry, but he played 63% of snaps last week and still only caught three passes for 42 yards. Maybe as a DraftKings play as he’s very cheap and could be a PPR guy, but on FanDuel, he’s likely not in play this week as the Dolphins should look to turn towards their rushing attack and Tyreek Hill.
- For the Bears, Darnell Mooney is out with a concussion, while Cole Kmet is questionable with a knee injury. This should help D.J. Moore, although Moore struggled last week in a game that the Bears just took a run-heavy approach to defeat the Cardinals. The matchup is a difficult one against Atlanta who have been good against the pass this season.
- Zack Moss is out for the Colts once again. The volume has been there for Jonathan Taylor, especially in the red zone as he has four touchdowns over his last three games, but the yardage and receptions have not been there as he has just 68 yards per game. With the Colts having a lot to play for this week as they’re clinging on to the final playoff position, they need to get Taylor going this week.
- The Buccaneers’ defense will be without Shaq Barrett and Carlton Davis this week on the defensive side of the ball. This is a unit that already struggles defending the pass, and while the high-priced Davis has been one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL this season, there is a reason he is still playing whenever he is able to, as the backups for Tampa Bay have struggled even more so.
Cash Game Rankings
| Quarterback | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jarrett Stidham | 16.7 | 6100 | Many people are simply going to see the name Jarrett Stidham and not even consider this. This is risky, but at $6,100 he does open up options for the rest of your lineup. Stidham last season started two games putting up 28 FanDuel points against arguably the league's best defense in San Francisco, and 16.76 FanDuel points against Kansas City. Stidham is a mobile quarterback as he has ran for 34 and 50 yards in those two games. This week he gets a Chargers defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and even though they have been better as of late, it should be a defense that Stidham and the Broncos can keep their outside playoff hopes alive this week at home. |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts | 24.3 | 9200 | At the quarterback position, you likely should go all the way up to Hurts, or all the way down to Jarrett Stidham. The difference between having Hurts number one and number two is the offensive production that Arizona can bring back in this game. It's without question that Arizona has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, as Chicago ran all over this team last week, and on the season they're allowing the most rushing yards per game at 147.0. This theoretically should bode extremely well for Hurts as so much of his value comes from his rushing ability, but the big question is whether he needs to run the ball or not. We've seen Hurts in games this season where the Eagles were big favorites simply not run the ball as he ran just four times for six yards against Washington, and nine times for 34 yards in the first meeting against Washington. Last week, while he was great, he did only run for 34 yards, but did score a touchdown which is something he hsa done in 12 of his 15 games this season. He's a great play this week, and I wouldn't blame anyone for starting Hurts, but for me this week it is simply trying to look at which lineup I'm most comfortable with whether that is spending up, or down at the quarterback position. |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | 21.1 | 7900 | Lamar Jackson might be the most popular quarterback on this slate, but as he's coming off of a very effective game where the Ravens beat the 49ers and Jackson had 22.58 FanDuel points against of the best defenses in the NFL. The challenges continue for Jackson this week as the Dolphins secondary has been one of the best in the NFL, and this could be a game where Baltimore struggles to move the ball as Jalen Ramsey has elevated this defense from average/above average as Joe is trying to choose him to come in. Jackson is always a risk as his ceiling is tremendous, but we've seen many times this season where his floor can derail your week as it's simply a matter of how much he is going to run. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Zamir White | 14.6 | 6100 | With Josh Jacobs doubtful, Zamir White should be nearly 100% rostered, even though he probably will only come in around 70-80% or so. While he didn't catch a pass in that game, the Raiders as a team did not complete a pass for the final three quarters, as they were content sitting on their lead against Kansas City, correctly assuming that their defense would be able to win them that game. The Colts were shredded by the Falcons last week allowing over 200 total yards to the combination of Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarrelle Patterson. |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | 22.8 | 11000 | $11,000 is a crazy number to even be considering for cash games this week, yet here we are. The reason we can even consider it, is that we have some discounted options such as Zamir White, Jarrett Stidham, Zay Flowers, etc to free up salary when it comes to average player salary remaining. For McCaffrey, it's just a different level of player compared to every other running back right now. He has 21 touchdowns on the season, has topped 100 total yards in 8 straight games. This week taking on a Washington defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs as Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, and De'Von Achane have simply torched this defense over the last three weeks. There's also the narrative that the 49ers are trying to get McCaffrey the MVP and they could give him some extra volume late in the game to try to get him an additional touchdown. |
| 3 | Kyren Williams | 18.1 | 9400 | The Giants are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and have allowed five running backs to go for 19 or more FanDuel points, which is about what we are looking for when it comes to a $9,400 player. Kyren Williams has been the second-best running back in the NFL this season as he has 100 rushing yards or more in five of his last six games, has scored eight touchdowns in his last eight games, and while we would like to see him catch the ball on a more regular basis, he does have three or more receptions in four of his last five games. He may not have the upside of McCaffrey who has legitimate 40+ upside every time he touches the field, but Williams can easily get to 20-30. |
| 4 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire (If Pacheco is out) | 11.4 | 6500 | Kansas City is in a great spot this week to put a big performance against Cincinnati. The Bengals had a significant loss as D.J. Reader was placed IR two weeks ago. Since that time Ty Chandler and the Steelers duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren dominated this Bengals defensive line. With the Chiefs struggles particularly in the passing attack, they are likely to run the ball with Edwards-Helaire in this game especially when they get near the end-zone as the Bengals have allowed seven rushing touchdowns over theirl ast seven games to opposing running backs. |
| 5 | Ezekiel Elliott | 12.7 | 6400 | Ezekiel Elliott has been a strange player over the last four weeks. With Bailey Zappe at quarterback, the Patriots have had very little success running the ball as Elliott has averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. However, where Elliott has been extremely effective is in the passing game averaging 6.3 receptions and 41.5 yareds per game over that stretch. The upside is limited, but he is a high-floor play who should be able to get close to 10 points with relative ease if the passing volume continues as it has over the last four games. The matchup is largely neutral, but we did see Rhamondre Stevenson for the Patriots have 6 receptions for 51 yards in the Patriots upset over Buffalo back in Week 7 which could be an indication that the Patriots are once again going to try to test the Bills by throwing to their running backs and continue the trend with Elliott. |
| 6 | Devin Singletary | 11 | 6600 | Singletary was dominant in the teams' meeting two weeks ago. Singletary had 26 carries for 121 yards while adding an additional 49 yards receiving in that game. While his volume almost certainly will decline due to C.J. Stroud's return, the team is likely going to try to see if they can get similar success against the Titans this week. Singletary's touchdown upside should also increase this week as the offense should be more dynamic with Stroud compared to Case Keenum. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Chris Olave | 13.1 | 7400 | Tampa Bay has been the worst pass defense in the NFL this season, so to get Olave at a fair price of $7,400 seems like a steal. Olave has topped 100-yards in three of his last four games, and after an injury riddled season seems to finally be healthy and back towards being an upper tier wide receiver. In the teams first matchup, Olave had just one reception for four yards. However, there were a lot of things working against Olave in that game that are no longer true. Derek Carr was dealing with a severe shoulder injury, and could not properly throw the ball as he threw for just 127 yards against the league's worst pass defense. Also, Michael Thomas was active in that game and led the team in receiving yards. With Thomas injured, Olave is going to be lookeed at to exploit this pass defense that is without Carlton Davis and Shaq Barrett which should only help Olave's chances this week. |
| 2 | DeAndre Hopkins | 12 | 6700 | The Browns proved again last week that the way to beat the Texans is through the air. Houston continues to have a league-best 3.1 yards-per-carry allowed to opposing running backs while allowing the 8th-most yards to opposing wide receivers. 13 wide receivers have topped 75 yards against this Texans secondary, and while Hopkins has struggled over the last two weeks, the Titans should get Will Levis back this week which is great news for Hopkins as he has not been able to be on the same page with Ryan Tannehill for most of the season. |
| 3 | Zay Flowers | 10 | 6300 | Like most rookies, they have ups and downs throughout their first-season. For Flowers, he had an abysmal 1 catch performance against the Jaguars in Week 15, but bounced back nicely last week against San Francisco with 9 receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown. Flowers has now scored a touchdown in two of his last three games, while having 10 or more targets in two of those last three as well. At $6,300, his price remains low simply because of that Monday effect as his big game came after the pricing had already been established for this week. |
| 4 | Rashee Rice | 14.2 | 7400 | Kansas City is in a get right spot this week at home against Cincinnati, and they'll need to rely on the rookie Rashee Rice in order to prove they're contenders. Rice's ceiling has been somewhat limited based on him only having an 11.0 yards-per-catch average, but he's a player who has a very high floor this week due to having nine or more targets over the last five games. |
| 5 | Nico Collins | 14.7 | 7300 | The Texans get C.J. Stroud back this week which should greatly help Nico Collins. Collins who also was dealing with injury issues has struggled in his last two games, but he's faced arguably the two best pass defenses in the NFL in the Jets and Browns. This week should get much easier as the Texans take on the Titans who are allowing the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and five wide receivers have topped 75-yards against this defense over the last four weeks. |
| 6 | Davante Adams | 12.5 | 7200 | How much do we want to overreact to one bad performance? The Raiders threw for only 62 yards last week against the Chiefs as they got out to a lead and largely just tried to bleed the clock and use field position and their defense to hang on to the win. Adams has 10 or more targets in four of his last six games with both games being against Kansas City where he failed to top that mark. This week, the Raiders get the Colts in a must-win for both teams. The Colts have been good against wide receivers in general, but have struggled against number one receivers as ten receivers have topped 14 FanDuel points which at $7,200 is about the minimum that we need to feel good about Adams as 120 points has largely been the cash point this season. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Trey McBrdie | 10.9 | 6800 | Tight end is loaded with talent this week, as George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Evan Engram are all potentially great plays. However, for McBride, he's in an offense that we know is going to have to throw the ball this week against Philadelphia to keep up with their high-powered offense, and the way to beat Philadelphia is through the air. For McBride, he may not have the upside of a George Kittle, but his median game should be higher simply because of the lack of options in Arizona compared to San Francisco. McBride is averaging 8.8 targets per game over his last six games and with Marquise Brown out, should be a good play this week. There is not a "must-play" guy at this position this week, so if you want to go with any of Kittle, Kelce, Engram, McBride, or Dallas Goedert as a cheaper option, that is more than justifiable this week. |
| 2 | George Kittle | 11.4 | 6700 | If you don't have Christian McCaffrey, you're likely going to want a piece of the 49ers offense, and Kittle could be that player. Very few tight ends have the upside that Kittle has, and we saw him in a difficult matchup have 7 receptions for 126 yards against the Ravens. Kittle is an interesting player, as throughout his career, he has put together these two game stretches of elite fantasy production only to go back down to an average tight end production level. We saw this earlier this year, where he put up back-to-back 100-yard performances which were his only two all season before last week. |
| 3 | Dallas Goedert | 8.6 | 5800 | For Goedert, you're getting a player who has as much upside as the next pricing tier at a discount. At just $5,800, you're getting a player who does have 9 targets in each of his last two games, and while the results have not fully shown themselves he did have 71 yards last week. Arizona has largely been untested by tight ends this season, but did allow Cole Kmet last week to have 107 yards on four receptions. If you can find the salary to spend up, it is probably wise to do so, but if you need someone in the 5-6k range this week, Goedert is likely the player to turn to. |
| 4 | Travis Kelce | 13.6 | 7800 | The Bengals have been amongst the worst teams in the NFL at defending the tight end position this season. On the season, they've allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, the most yards, most receptions, and 8th-most touchdowns. Both Pat Freiermuth and George Kittle have topped 120 yards against the Bengals, and this week, Travis Kelce gets to face this defense after the Chiefs were embarassed at home against the Raiders on Christmas Day. This is a must-win for the Chiefs as they need one victory to clinch the division, but more importantly need to find a way to quickly get their offense right as they're just 2-4 since coming back from their game in Germany and having a bye week. Kelce has been bad based on his standards, and he has not scored a touchdown in his last five games, but he still has as much upside as any player on this slate this week. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Denver | 10.5 | 3700 | Like a lot of inexperienced quarterbacks, sacks are a problem for Easton Stick. On the season, he's been sacked about 10% of his dropbacks. Going into Mile High Stadium in the cold is not an easy place to play for making just your third NFL start. The Broncos got the best of Stick in their first meeting as the Chargers scored just 7 points and Stick was sacked twice in relief duty for the injured Justin Herbert in that game as the Broncos had six total sacks as they sacked Herbert four times. |
| 2 | Carolina | 8.1 | 3400 | If you need a cheap defense, Carolina's pass defense has been great this season, and this is a team that is still playing hard to finish out the year. Facing C.J. Beathard, they're going to make this team's day difficult. There's not much to like sub-3,500 this week so this is just a straight punt play. C.J. Beathard has had sack issues early on in his career as he's been sacked 8.5% of dropbacks, but he has been better this season. |
Lineups
Overview
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
For better GPP advice, I would check out Dan Hindery’s Weekly GPP article as he breaks down in much more detail how to approach GPP’s every week.
Week 17 Thoughts
This is an interesting and should be a fun week, there are so many key decision points that are likely going to cause people to build different rosters. Decisions such as whether to spend up at quarterback or down to a Jarrett Stidham/Tyrod Taylor. Whether to play Christian McCaffrey plays a big role in that as well as it is almost impossible to play McCaffrey without going to Stidham. At wide receiver, there are several guys in similar price points that are all very much in play this week (see player chart at the bottom for reference)
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 120.6)
- QB Jarrett Stidham, DEN, $6,100
- RB Zamir White, LV, $6,100
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, NE, $6,400
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,300
- WR Davante Adams, LV, $7,200
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, TEN, $6,700
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,800
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $11,000
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,400
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –Cash Plus - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 118.4)
A cash-plus lineup is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Jarrett Stidham, DEN, $6,100
- RB Zamir White, LV, $6,100
- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, $6,500
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,300
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $7,400
- WR Zay Flowers, BAL, $6,300
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,800
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $11,000
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,400
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 126.6)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,000
- RB Zamir White, LV, $6,100
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, NE, $6,400
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $7,500
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $7,400
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, TEN, $6,700
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $7,800
- Flex RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, $6,500
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,400
Player Chart
Note: Projected Points could differ from the chart above based on timing and injury news.
