"Have a plan. Follow the plan, and you'll be surprised how successful you can be. Most people don't have a plan. That's why it's easy to beat most folks." – Paul "Bear" Bryant, football coach, University of Alabama's Crimson Tide.
Fantasy football draft season is a heady time when we think about how the draft will unfold, who we will target, and how we will assemble our championship team in real time, pitted against a group of live minds. Preparation is important, but never to the point of rigidity. There will be unexpected picks ahead of you that cause a player you never considered to fall to your pick. You will see key players in your draft plan sniped a pick or two before you are on the clock. You need to be prepared, but you also have to be flexible. The best way to do that is to understand the alternatives for filling each starting slot on your team. When you make a pick, you are affecting the decision matrix for your later picks. Sometimes the answer isn't who you like better among your early targets when you are on the clock in the early rounds, but who you like better later at the positions you are neglecting when you make a pick. If you feel comfortable about later options, then it's easy to kick a position down the road a few rounds. If you are staring at your last viable option to fill a starting spot, it's probably better to avoid the pain of figuring out what to do later.
First, as always, familiarize yourself with your scoring and lineups. If you only start two wide receivers and running backs with no flex positions, then tight end and quarterback become more important. If you can start seven WR/RB, then quarterback and tight end are less important. Know which players/positions are helped and hurt by whether your league is nonPPR, .5 PPR, PPR, or tight end premium (1.5 PPR for tight ends). Know which quarterbacks are helped and hurt by bonuses for long scores or 300-yard games, and whether your league gives more than 4 points for a passing score or 1 point for each 25 passing yards. Look at the average points per game at each position, sorted in descending order, and note which positions have the smallest and largest spans between #1 and the last starter, based on league size times starting requirements, to know where getting an elite option is most important (VBD drafting!) You get the point. Know the landscape before you get dropped in to conquer it.
Next, create a list of players who are your guys. Using ADP, you can have a reasonable expectation of who will be there in which rounds, and you can start to piece together a plan that will give your lineup balance and upside and create possibilities for improvement on your bench. You should also have clarity on which players you value so much less than the hive mind that you can just cross them off your list. Understand the if/then logic of your choices and how they ripple through the later rounds. Then clear your mind, get in the moment, and draft!
As always, fantasy football is a diversion, an escape where we get to call the shots. Do it your way and enjoy the peace of mind that comes with getting lost in a puzzle and forgetting the pressures of everyday life.
Cliff's Notes
Overall: There will be multiple right answers at every position, and the right answers will change as the season unfolds. Have clarity on which players you like at each position in each section of your draft so you can piece together a roster of players you want no matter how your opponents draft. In the first round, don't focus on running back vs. wide receiver. Just take the player/situation you believe in the most.
Draft Slot: The elite player tier ends at Pick 1.05 (1.06 if you aren't worried about Justin Jefferson's hamstring, 1.04 if you are and if you are worried about Saquon Barkley's 2024 workload) deep. If you like Christian McCaffrey to stay healthy, it might be 1.07. Somewhere in the middle of the first is the best place to be.
QB: The ticket price for the elite top 5 scorers isn't too steep, but similar production (or the promise of it) is available a few rounds later, and there is a surplus of hope for improvement among the stopgap options. As always, the easiest position to punt.
RB: At least five running backs will go in the first round, and they are worth it. But some backs who can outperform their draft capital by a round or more are on the board through the fifth round. The potential return on investment drops off in the fifth, so plan on taking two, if not three, running backs in the first five rounds.
WR: The top tier is so deep that there might be first-round quality wide receivers available in the second round. There are potential value picks available through the eighth round. You'll like the wide receivers on the board in the 6th-8th round a lot more than the running backs. Plan on taking one or two in that range. In general, break ties against wide receiver in the first five rounds, and don't be afraid to emerge from the first five rounds with only one or two wide receivers. There are lots of names that could be weekly WR3/Flex plays available well into the second half of your draft.
TE: There's a big gap between the top tier and the pack, although one of them is cheaper than the others, and there could be a fourth option that was left out. This is a good year to take a tight end early, although there are a lot of options that could break into the top 6-8 going outside of the top 10. There are a couple in particular that should be a priority at ADP if you pass on tight end early.
K: Take one with your last pick that's established in a good offense.
DEF: Take one with your next-to-last pick that has a good Week 1 matchup.
Quarterback Strategy - The Waiting is the Hardest Part
Again, knowing your scoring system is key here. In leagues with distance touchdown and 300+ yard game bonuses, or more than four points per pass touchdown, or efficiency scoring that takes points away for incompletions and awards points for completions, Joe Burrow could be #1, Baker Mayfield could be top three, and Jared Goff and Brock Purdy could be top 10-12, allowing you to wait longer. In more typical leagues with four-point pass touchdowns and one point per 25 passing yards, the quarterbacks with a running dimension remain king.
I get it, a late-round quarterback is attractive because you can get 15-20 points off the waiver wire. That was a more compelling argument when the top quarterbacks were in the 24-25 point per game range. Enter quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels, who can score 28-30 points a game on average in typical scoring systems at their peaks, and the game has changed. A 10-point per game advantage is the largest that any player at any position will give you over replacement value by a large margin. The object of fantasy football is to score more points than your opponent, and it sure seems like getting an elite fantasy quarterback is the shortest line between A and B to achieve that result. Who is the best target if you want an elite fantasy quarterback, but don't want to pay the premium for Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts? Baker Mayfield, or Justin Fields, a few rounds later.
QB Plan A - Elite Production at a Discount
Target: Baker Mayfield
Round: 7th
Mayfield was just about a point per game behind Josh Allen last year, and that included a stretch when his top three receivers were Sterling Shepard, Rakim Jarrett, and Trey Palmer. The Bucs did lose offensive coordinator Liam Coen (who took the job to work with Mayfield again) to the Jaguars, but a promotion of passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator is promising. Grizzard wants more downfield passing, and the Bucs added another weapon when they took Emeka Egbuka in the first round. Mayfield is a slam dunk at ADP.
Target: Justin Fields
Round: 9th-10th
Fields was QB10 when he was benched for Russell Wilson last year. He was QB10 on average in 2023, his last year in Chicago. In 2022, he was a top-five quarterback and produced the same fantasy bottom line as Lamar Jackson. This year, he's going off the board at QB12. He has reunited with Garrett Wilson, who will be his clear #1 receiver, and has a new offensive coordinator in Tanner Engstrand, who should be philosophically much more flexible than Arthur Smith. Fields' running ability could be a centerpiece of the offense and set him up for another top-five season.
Target: Anthony Richardson Sr.
Round: 12th or later
Richardson showed up to camp healthy after a shoulder injury interrupted OTAs. He is already pulling away from Daniel Jones and is on track to start Week 1 against a depleted Dolphins secondary. He has reportedly improved his short and intermediate accuracy, and the offense added Tyler Warren in the first round to boost the passing attack. You should definitely add another top 20 quarterback if you take Richardson.
QB Plan B - Swing for an Easy Single
If you prefer paying less at quarterback than it costs to get Mayfield or Fields, there is a plethora of options with a reasonable chance and history of top-10 finishes. These players will allow you to hold the line at quarterback while banking advantages at RB/WR/TE over the teams that took a quarterback early.
Target: Brock Purdy
Round: 10th
Purdy should get Christian McCaffrey back this year and will be playing with a stacked deck of face cards in the passing game, especially once Brandon Aiyuk gets back to full speed. Purdy's rushing production also ticked up while he was given a longer leash in the passing game. Purdy is hitting his prime and should be set up for a career year.
Target: Dak Prescott
Round: 10th
Prescott was QB6 two years ago. In 2021, he was QB8. Five years ago, He was QB1 by a good margin when his season was ended by a dislocated ankle in Week 5. The backfield is being led by Javonte Williams (don't laugh). When the team decided to give up a third-round pick to upgrade the offense, it was to add George Pickens, which gives Prescott the best 1-2 punch at wide receiver that he has had since he was throwing to CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper in 2021. He's a lot safer than his ADP indicates
What if I wait and miss out on Fields, Purdy, and Prescott?
It will be ok.
Lots of quarterbacks outside the top 12 - Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., Geno Smith, Cam Ward, Bryce Young - could flirt with low QB1 production, especially if you have two and can pick the better matchup each week. The depth at quarterback will also make most teams happy with their QB1, giving you less competition on the waiver wire if your draft picks come out of the gate slowly.
Are you saying I shouldn't draft a quarterback early?
Not necessarily. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts possess rushing upside that gives them a higher weekly ceiling than Baker Mayfield, perhaps justifying the additional cost. This is especially true in leagues with 4 points per passing touchdown/point per 25 passing yards, where there are no bonuses for big plays or games. The reason an elite quarterback isn't Plan A is that George Kittle is the ideal fourth-round pick, and there are some attractive high-ceiling RB/WR available in the third round.
Do I need a QB2?
The easiest answer is that everyone should take Anthony Richardson Sr. as their QB2 because of his high ceiling. The more nuanced answer is that it depends on who you take as your QB1 and how long your bench is. If Fields/Richardson is your QB1 or you are starting someone outside of the top 12 quarterbacks to open the season, you should take your favorite QB2. Otherwise, you might get away with not carrying a QB2 simply because teams will start dropping their QB2 options as we get to the waiver wire gauntlet, so you just need your QB1 to stay healthy through midseason to get away with only rostering one quarterback at the end of your draft. Last year reminded us that surprise options like Sam Darnold and Bo Nix can emerge as viable bye/injury/emergency options, so there are probably more players who can save your season if your QB1 goes down than you expect at first. The QB2 options that are worth taking, even if you trust your QB1 as an every-week starter, are the ones with top 5-6 upside: Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and Cam Ward.
A note for Superflex/2QB players
The top 10-12 quarterbacks fly off the board in Superflex/2QB leagues. You should probably take your QB1 in the first or second round. If you have an early draft slot, it is almost imperative to take a quarterback first because you will likely still find a top 10-12 RB/WR/TE available at your second pick, but the top 10-12 quarterbacks should be gone. Typically, in a superflex/2QB draft, you can get RB/WR/TE a round or more later than their ADP in 1QB leagues. Alternatively, that means taking RB/WR/TE comes with a penalty of having to take them in the same round they usually go in, if you take one in the first round.
You can employ a strategy of waiting on your second quarterback and taking RB/WR/TE as long as you can until you feel forced to take your QB2 because the supply is drying up. Geno Smith, Bryce Young, Matthew Stafford, Anthony Richardson Sr., (and maybe Cam Ward), will be available after your top 50 or so RB/WR/TE are gone, so you won't be assessed as big an opportunity cost when you take them as you would if you take an early QB2. Going quarterback in two of your first 3-4 picks can still work out, but you have to be almost flawless on your early RB/WR/TE picks if you don't take your QB1 early.
Running Back Strategy - Go Get Your Guys
You're going to have to mostly play running back straight up this year. There are few if any screaming values coming off of a season when most running backs stayed healthy and played well. The running back "dead zone" is very much alive, though, so you don't *have* to take a running back early if you aren't feelin' it.
Take Your RB1 in the First Round
No matter which draft slot you draw, running back can be an answer to "Which position do I take in the first?"
Draft Slot: 1-5
Targets: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley
Should you center your draft around a running back who had 482 touches last year? Sure! Barkley is an elite talent in an elite situation and he was more than two points per game better than any other back. If you want to pass on Barkley for Ja'Marr Chase or CeeDee Lamb, or another back just to avoid the risk, that's reasonable, especially in a PPR league. Gibbs is set up to have even more explosive plays under new offensive coordinator John Morton, and he might inch further ahead of David Montgomery in the backfield split. Robinson could be unleashed with Michael Penix Jr. adding more dimensions to the offense. The real bottom line here is that Picks 1-5 (1-6 if you're not worried about Justin Jefferson's hamstring) is very level. If you get to choose your draft slot, 1.04 or 1.05 (if you're not worried about Barkley's workload) is the sweet spot.
Draft Slot: 6-12
Targets: Ashton Jeanty, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey
There's a new feeling in Las Vegas and Jeanty is the headliner in the Chip Kelly offense. It won't be a bit surprising if he joins the elite running back tier from the drop. Henry is aging like fine wine and the Ravens offense can be even better than it was last year. McCaffrey has been healthy in camp and offers #1 overall fantasy player upside in PPR leagues to offset the injury risk. There's a *ton* of compelling wide receivers in the second half of the first round too, so you'll have to take a stand on an individual player/situation instead of focusing on one position or the other.
Take Your RB1 in the Second Round
The second round has a handful of solid RB1 options, with a good mix of floor and upside to suit drafters across the philosophical spectrum.
Target: De'Von Achane
Round: Early-Mid Second
Achane delivered value on a second round ADP last year even though the Dolphins offense was a disaster. With Jonnu Smith shipped off to Pittsburgh, Achane could be in line for even more short targets, and there's hope that the offensive line will improve with Patrick Paul looking the part in place of Terron Armstead, who retired in the offseason.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown
Round: Mid-Late Second
Yes, there are running backs with top five upside available in the second (and sometimes early third round). Taylor was back to his elite self late last season and Anthony Richardson Sr. is showing signs of life, which could make life easier for him. Irving is improving in pass protection and could incrementally increase a workload that already supported low RB1 value in an elite offense. Jacobs is a warhorse who showed that his down 2023 was about the Raiders, not him, and Brown has the best chance of joining the top five as the do-everything back in what could be the highest-scoring offense in the league. The only reason to pass on him in the late second is that he might be available in the early third.
Take Your RB1 in Third Round
The RB1 candidates available in the third are better than we're used to seeing.
Target: Chase Brown
Round: Early Third
Slam dunk in the early third even if you already took a running back in the first or second.
Target: Kyren Williams, Omarion Hampton, Breece Hall
Round: Mid-Late Third
Williams is the safe high floor pick in the third, although Matthew Stafford's back woes add some risk. Hampton is the exciting upside rookie pick with Jim Harbaugh gushing about him while we wait for Najee Harris to return to the field. Lots of signs point to Hall being in a committee, but Braelon Allen is still relatively unproven and Hall at his peak is good enough to destroy the idea that he shouldn't be the lead back very quickly.
Go Upside Down/Do the Opposite/Zero RB - Be the last to take your RB1
The running back "dead zone" extends into the 6th/7th round. Until recently, running backs who are likely to lead their team in touches but have warts like age, injury, quality of offense, and quality of competition would only fall as far as the 4th/5th round, forcing teams antsy about their RB2 to take someone they weren't in love with. These days, you can still get proven commodities at running back cheaper than ever. Here are some of my favorites:
4th Round: James Cook (BUF), Alvin Kamara (NO), Ken Walker III (SEA), Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
Cook is going to be giving everything he's got to prove he's worth a big second contract. He plays in an elite offense. Kamara profiles as PPR RB1 again, but you can get him in the mid-low RB2 range. Walker will get to drive a Klint Kubiak running game, which coincidentally, is who powered Kamara's strong 2024 showing. He's available in the fifth round at times. Hubbard was a borderline fantasy RB1 with bad Bryce Young, Andy Dalton, and good Bryce Young. He could be even better in an improved Panthers offense (now with more Tetairoa McMillan!) if good Bryce Young is the real Bryce Young.
5th Round: James Conner (ARI)
If you miss out on that trio, Conner can still be a viable RB1 in a Zero RB strategy. The perennially underrated back should be available a few slots after his proven production yet again this year.
Is this a smart strategy?
If you get three WR1s in the first three rounds, or two WR1s and an elite tight end, it can work. But it gives you a smaller margin of error and makes hitting on later wide receiver picks (which is more likely than hitting on later running back picks) less valuable in your team build.
Should I take my RB2 in the first 3-5 rounds?
I strongly recommend it. Especially if it's Chase Brown. You can still get away with one running back in the first five rounds (Called Hero RB strategy in some circles) if you nail the pick and get solid production from a mid-round pick or score in the late rounds/waiver wire derby. But everyone is going to be playing that game, even the teams that went running back early.
Should I take three running backs in the first five rounds (AKA Robust RB)
It's not a bad idea. There are good reasons to take three running backs early. A 0.5 PPR scoring system, high confidence in three backs going in the first 3-5 rounds, or feeling good about lots of later picks at wide receiver. Just make sure you have clarity on those targets, as you'll have ground to make up at wide receiver at a minimum. Don't be afraid to take your favorite back from that 4th-5th round range group to deny an opponent who waited at running back an out and reinforce depth at the most fragile position in fantasy football. With the quality of backs available in the 3rd-5th round, it could be a preferred strategy to go RB-RB-RB after a WR-WR start.
Grab Your RB3 in the 9th-10th
There are a few running backs available in the 9th/10th round (the 7th is for Baker Mayfield or a wide receiver) that are viable bye-week/injury-coverage backs because of dedicated roles, but they also have upside to be more. Grab your favorite to protect against injuries and other misfortunes.
Brian Robinson Jr, WAS - The Commanders are yet another backfield that is sticking with a group that had limited success last year. They have the third intriguing seventh-round rookie to target in the late rounds (Jacory Croskey-Merritt), and Deebo Samuel Sr. could get some touches out of the backfield. However, Robinson is the incumbent starter and should lead the backfield to open the season. Robinson was banged up last year, but was still useful in fantasy leagues. He's also in a very productive offense.
Jaylen Warren, PIT - Warren was only brought back on a one-year deal, but it was a significant raise. Plus, he has said he spent the offseason preparing for a larger workload. He could be more productive and dynamic than Najee Harris with a slightly larger role. Rookie Kaleb Johnson is going ahead of him in redraft and best ball leagues, but Warren should be the passing down back in any event and could be difficult for Johnson to overtake, at least early in the season.
Jordan Mason, MIN - Mason should be the goal-line back and get a chance to salt away wins and exploit subpar run defenses with volume in a Vikings offense that recommitted to the run this offseason.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE - The Patriots are going to incorporate second-round pick TreVeyon Henderson more as a receiver than runner, and Stevenson is the only back that has played in the Josh McDaniels offense before.
Tank Bigsby, JAX - You probably don't need to take him until the 12th round or later, but the fantasy world could catch up to the fact that he's going to lead the backfield in carries soon.
Running back bench - 11th round and later
Your other running back bench spots are important. Here are four categories to stock your bench with.
Backups with Passing Game Skills
Ideal in: PPR, Best Ball
Targets: Rachaad White (TB), Austin Ekeler (WAS), Roschon Johnson (CHI), Will Shipley (PHI), Justice Hill (BAL)
Early Down Backups
Ideal in: 0.5/Non-PPR, Long Bench leagues with less roster churn
Targets: Trey Benson (ARI), Ray Davis (BUF), Rico Dowdle (CAR), Isaac Guerendo (SF), Tyler Allgeier (ATL), Jaylen Wright (MIA), Tahj Brooks (CIN)
Wild Cards with Uncertain Roles
Ideal In: Short bench leagues where you want to move on quickly
Targets: Braelon Allen (NYJ), Brashard Smith (KC), Bhayshul Tuten (JAX), Nick Chubb (HOU), Dylan Sampson (CLE), Jerome Ford (CLE), Jaydon Blue (DAL), Kyle Monangai (CHI), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS)
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