This is the time of year when I start to ponder my biggest preseason misses. I want to know where it all went wrong and what I can learn. Javonte Williams stands out as my biggest miss so far. Labeled as a dead-zone running back, I passed on him in almost every fantasy draft this offseason.
But how did I not see this coming?
Javonte Williams was just 20 years old when the Denver Broncos selected him 35th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. He was expected to split touches with Melvin Gordon III, the 28-year-old incumbent back coming off a 1,144-yard, 10-touchdown season.
Almost immediately, the rookie proved a worthwhile investment. In his first two NFL games, he forced 12 missed tackles. He ceded work to his veteran backfield mate all year but made a fantastic rookie-year impression. His 71 missed tackles forced ranked fourth among all running backs. He generated 3.42 yards after contact per attempt, the seventh-most in the league. He carved out a role in the passing game, drawing 53 targets. A color-scaled efficiency chart for Williams looked like a map of a golf course. Williams immediately emerged as one of the league's best young backs.
After his rookie season, he peaked as the RB2 in dynasty rankings, per KeepTradeCut. At worst, he was ranked as the RB4, behind Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor. The tantalizing age, pass-catching chops, and on-the-ground efficiency made him a near-perfect running back prospect.
In Year 2, he got the starting nod for Week 1. Twelve targets, 10 carries, nine missed tackles forced. Williams picked up right where he left off, only this time with a bigger workload. He was forcing missed tackles and generating yards after contact at an even higher rate than the year before. And then he went down with a gruesome knee injury in Week 4. ACL, MCL, PCL. Season over, and a long road to recovery.
Miraculously, Williams was back at the start of training camp the following preseason, avoiding the PUP list. Clips from training camp quickly dampened excitement, as his surgically-repaired knee clearly limited his mobility.
Williams opened the year as the starter, but wasn't his pre-injury self. As the season progressed, rookie Jaleel McLaughlin and veteran Samaje Perine lessened his load. Williams only started two of the season's final four games. At the end of the 2023 season, all of the exciting efficiency metrics from early in his career had cratered. Those dips in efficiency and shaky workload carried into 2024, where he struggled again before his rookie deal expired.
The Cowboys signed a 24-year-old Williams this March. He ran away with the lead job in training camp and immediately rebounded near some of his early-career metrics through the first third of the year. Through Week 7, he's fantasy's RB5.
How was I supposed to see this coming? Or rather, as I said earlier, how could I not see this coming?
Many (read: me) argued that Williams' multi-ligament tear marked the end of his days as a workhorse running back. Even Williams recently admitted, "There was a time I thought it was going to be over with." And given the dips in efficiency and slow slip of the starting job in Denver, it seemed inevitable.
But why didn't I simply look back at recent history?
Saquon Barkley tore his ACL in 2020. The following year, his ability to generate yards after contact, force missed tackles, and rip off big runs plummeted. Those efficiency metrics remained stagnant until a trade to Philadelphia. He immediately returned to his pre-injury efficiency and had the best year of his career.
A foot injury ended Derrick Henry's 2021 regular season. He spent the next two years in Tennessee posting career-worst efficiency metrics. And then he signed with Baltimore in 2024 and generated the most yards after contact since 2020 while setting career highs in missed tackles forced and breakaway runs.
J.K. Dobbins missed all of 2021 after suffering a multi-ligament knee injury in the preseason. After spending the remainder of his rookie deal in Baltimore, you'll never guess what happened. He went to a new team and regained his prior efficiency!
Apparently, all a veteran running back needs to bounce back is a change of address.
So what is causing this recent phenomenon? Why is it that these running backs are getting better in new situations? Well, running backs are finishing pieces in the world of roster construction. Williams landed with the high-powered Cowboys. The Eagles had already been to a Super Bowl without Barkley before adding him. The Ravens were AFC frontrunners when they made the move for Henry. The Chargers plopped Dobbins into a great offensive environment with one of the league's best offensive lines.
Maybe there's a psychological aspect to it. Training rooms and practice fields filled with memories of rehab and pain are a constant reminder of previous hardships. A new environment allows players to move forward with a fresh mind. Williams, for example, is playing with a newfound looseness this year. He looks like he's trimmed his weight. He's showing more confidence with every step. There's a bounce in his gait that hasn't been visible since he first entered the league.
Similarly, Barkley showed up in Philadelphia and hurdled backwards over a defender. Dobbins went to Los Angeles and ripped off a 61-yarder in Week 1, his longest tote since his rookie season. Remember when Christian McCaffrey was traded to San Francisco midseason and immediately rushed for, caught, and threw a touchdown in a single game? Something about these second acts in better environments helps talented veterans ascend to new heights.
So, what did I actually learn here? What lesson will I take with me for fading Javonte Williams this preseason? Next year, when a running back's rookie deal expires and he signs with a high-powered offense, I'm not going to nitpick prior efficiency numbers. I'm going to remember this recent trend and hope that a good prospect can find success in a new environment.
Well, would you look at that. We aren't even halfway through this season, and I'm already talking myself into drafting Breece Hall and Ken Walker III again next year.
As always, I'll be ranking every fantasy-relevant player for the remainder of the season. Next to risers and fallers will be a "+" or "-" and a number, indicating how much they've moved from last week's rankings. For a different perspective, check out Bob Henry's Rest-Of-Season Projections.
Coming out of Week 7, there weren't a lot of shakeups near the top of the rankings. However, the constant churn of RB2s, WR3s, and streamer QBs and TEs is as active as ever. Let's dive in, starting with the running backs.
Running Backs
The never-ending injuries keep running backs the most volatile weekly position of them all. Even without injuries, coaches are willing to take and give work from a player at a moment's notice. There's some minor tweaking up top, but the RB2-RB5 range is in constant flux. Targeting the guys who are trending up and dropping dead weight is a proven way to maintain an edge on your leaguemates.
- RB1 - Christian McCaffrey
- RB2 - Jonathan Taylor
- RB3 - Jahmyr Gibbs
- RB4 - Bijan Robinson
- RB5 - De'Von Achane (+1)
- RB6 - James Cook III (-1)
- RB7 - Josh Jacobs
- RB8 - Javonte Williams (+4) -Williams has been a steady riser in every edition of this season's series. I've consistently noted his efficiency metrics, which continue to improve. The pre-draft hivemind pegged Williams as a classic dead-zone running back, past his prime before ever breaking out, and it made him one of this year's best values. Contrary to the consensus opinions, Williams has returned to his pre-injury form as one of the league's best tackle breakers. His 21 missed tackles forced are seventh among running backs. He's generating yards after contact at the best rate of his career (4.06). He's registering more breakaway runs than he ever has before, as 9.9% of his carries are going for 10-plus yards, the highest rate since his knee injury. Still just 25 years old, he has essentially no competition for touches on one of the league's highest-scoring offenses. There's no reason not to view Williams as an elite RB1 going forward.
- RB9 - Saquon Barkley (-1)
- RB10 - Kyren Williams
- RB11 - Ashton Jeanty (-2) - Jeanty's drop in the rankings is no fault of his own. He's regularly shown flashes of athleticism and contact balance that made him an elite prospect. The Raiders offense simply isn't an environment conducive to fantasy consistency. We've seen Jeanty will himself to elite production, like in his 155-yard, three-touchdown outing against Chicago. That game has proven to be the exception, not the norm. He's had more games without a score than with one. He's topped 100 scrimmage yards in only two of seven games. There's no doubt that Jeanty is a good running back, and his volume makes him a plug-and-play RB1, but his current situation keeps a cap on his potential.
- RB12 - Quinshon Judkins (-1)
- RB13 - Cam Skattebo
- RB14 - Derrick Henry
- RB15 - Breece Hall (+1)
- RB16 - D'Andre Swift (+3) - The Bears' offensive line has started to mesh since the Week 5 bye, affording Swift the lanes he wants for big games. Many of his yards over the last two weeks have come before contact. With a full head of steam, Swift can regularly use his speed to rip off chunk plays. He has 313 yards and two scores in the two games since the bye. He's been a volume-based RB2 all year, but the improvements to the Bears' maulers up front pull him up the rankings.
- RB17 - Bucky Irving (+1)
- RB18 - Travis Etienne Jr. (-3) - Through Week 4, Etienne was the RB9 in fantasy, averaging 15.9 half-PPR points per game. Over the last three weeks, though, he's averaging just 6.9. The run game as a whole has sputtered, and Etienne's workload and efficiency have both reeled back. He still makes for a solid RB2. But his early-season pace is a more accurate reflection of his high-end range of outcomes than his median.
- RB19 - Alvin Kamara (+1)
- RB20 - Rico Dowdle (-3) - Touches were split tightly between Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard in the latter's first game back from injury. Dowdle touched the ball 18 times. Hubbard 16. However, Dowdle was much more effective with his touches, averaging 5.3 yards to Hubbard's 2.4. While there will likely be a split moving forward, Dowdle looks like the clear superior talent. His usage and efficiency make him the clear preferred start in this backfield.
- RB21 - Jacory Croskey-Merritt (+1)
- RB22 - Chase Brown (+4) - Brown's slow start can almost entirely be blamed on the offense's early struggles. With Joe Flacco improving the offense as a whole, Brown was afforded more space to break off chunk plays, and he did just that. After failing to log a 15-yard rush all year, Brown did it twice on Thursday night, including a strong 37-yard run up the middle of the defense. Samaje Perine's usage and the absence of Joe Burrow will keep Brown from hitting his desired ceiling, but there's reason to feel better about keeping Brown in your weekly lineups.
- RB23 - Jaylen Warren (+7) - After missing Week 4 and watching his backup score three touchdowns, there was fear that Warren might lose some work upon his return. In Week 7, he handled 80.8% of the touches, racking up a season-high 158 scrimmage yards. Mike Tomlin famously has a rule about starters not losing their jobs due to injury, and Warren's workload suggests that he's abiding by it in this instance.
- RB24 - Ken Walker III (-3)
- RB25 - Omarion Hampton (-2)
- RB26 - David Montgomery (-2)
- RB27 - Rhamondre Stevenson (+6) - To the dismay of fantasy managers who hoped TreVeyon Henderson would be a rookie league winner, Stevenson has tightened his grasp on the Patriots' lead job. Given the wishy-washy tendencies from Josh McDaniels and Mike Vrabel, this backfield is probably more mercurial than the recent usage would suggest. Still, Henderson was a complete afterthought on Sunday, while Stevenson rumbled for 88 yards on 20 touches. Frankly, there's no reason Stevenson should be getting this workload. His three fumbles lead all running backs. The 1.3 yards after contact per attempt he's averaging are, by far, the worst of his career. His 13.8 attempts per broken tackle rank around league average, a metric he hasn't excelled in since 2022. But he's getting the workload. Antonio Gibson is out for the year. TreVeyon Henderson appears to be in the dog house. There are some definite red flags in Stevenson's profile, and he's got a highly drafted rookie behind him, but he's turned in RB3 production this year.
- RB28 - Zach Charbonnet (-3)
- RB29 - Rachaad White (+2)
- RB30 - J.K. Dobbins (-3)
- RB31 - Jordan Mason (-3)
- RB32 - Isiah Pacheco (+2)
- RB33 - Chuba Hubbard (+8) - Despite Dowdle's fantastic two-game stretch, Hubbard returned to a significant role in Week 7. He doesn't have the same burst as Dowdle, but there should be enough volume to make him a touchdown-dependent flex play going forward. His upside is capped unless Dowdle falters.
- RB34 - Tony Pollard (-2)
- RB35 - Tyjae Spears (+2)
- RB36 - TreVeyon Henderson (-7) - Maybe Henderson is struggling with ball security and pass protection. Maybe he personally insulted Mike Vrabel in a team meeting. Maybe he's just not good at football. At a certain point, the "Why?" doesn't matter. Henderson isn't getting on the field enough to maintain fantasy relevance. In Week 7, he played just nine of 64 offensive snaps. For context, the Patriots elevated Terrell Jennings the day before kickoff, and he played eight snaps. Henderson's snap counts have gone down in three consecutive weeks. He ran a season-low five routes and didn't pull a single target. Henderson's hopeful upside as a big-play, pass-catching rookie hasn't even flashed yet. He's a frustrating stash who can't be relied on in lineups.
- RB37 - Tyler Allgeier (-1)
- RB38 - Woody Marks (+1)
- RB39 - RJ Harvey (-4)
- RB40 - Bhayshul Tuten (-2)
- RB41 - Nick Chubb (-1)
- RB42 - Blake Corum (+1)
- RB43 - Tyrone Tracy Jr. (+4)
- RB44 - Aaron Jones Sr. (+2)
- RB45 - Brashard Smith (+6) - Much of Smith's Week 7 work came in garbage time. Even so, he's looked impressive when given opportunities. Andy Reid has a history of slowrolling rookie development, and this current arc feels awfully similar to teammate Rashee Rice's rookie season. Smith's 3.13 yards per route run are the most of any running back. He pulls a target on 46% of his routes, the highest rate of any running back. When he's on the field, he garners targets at an elite rate and is hyper-efficient with his opportunities. If his snap share were to grow (his recent 34.6% snap share was his highest of the year), his production could explode. The rookie's 39 rushing and 42 receiving yards were both the best of his young career. Smith, a former wide receiver, has the tools to be an underneath, after-the-catch weapon for the red-hot Chiefs.
- RB46 - Kimani Vidal (-1)
- RB47 - Kenneth Gainwell (-5)
- RB48 - Jeremy McNichols (+1)
- RB49 - Kareem Hunt (-1)
- RB50 - Brian Robinson Jr.
- RB51 - Kyle Monangai (+5)
- RB52 - Bam Knight (+2)
- RB53 - Michael Carter (-1)
- RB54 - Emanuel Wilson (+4)
- RB55 - Ray Davis (-2)
- RB56 - Isaiah Davis (+4)
- RB57 - Jaydon Blue (-2)
- RB58 - Chris Rodriguez Jr. (+1)
- RB59 - Jerome Ford (+2)
- RB60 - Ollie Gordon II (+6)
- RB61 - Justice Hill (-4)
- RB62 - Samaje Perine (+2)
- RB63 - Hassan Haskins
- RB64 - Trey Benson (+5)
- RB65 - Devin Neal (New) - With Kendre Miller out for the year after suffering a torn ACL, Neal should serve as the backup behind Alvin Kamara. Neal has only touched the ball three times this year, giving us almost nothing to work with regarding his talent level. He was a buzzy rookie who fell to Round 6. He's got average size and speed and a well-rounded skill set, but nothing to get especially excited about. As often is the case with running backs, though, availability is the best ability. He is healthy. If Kamara has to miss time for any reason, Neal might stumble into some flex-worthy production.
- RB66 - Tahj Brooks (-1)
- RB67 - Devin Singletary
- RB68 - Sean Tucker (+3)
- RB69 - DJ Giddens (-7)
- RB70 - LeQuint Allen Jr. (+4)
- RB71 - Dylan Sampson (+5)
- RB72 - Will Shipley
- RB73 - Tank Bigsby (+11) - It only took six weeks, but the Eagles finally remembered that they traded for Bigsby. He had one carry and one catch in this game. Still, that's a notable improvement from the zero carries and zero targets he had through his first five weeks with Philadelphia. He's worth a look in deep leagues, but probably still quite a ways from a role that is worthwhile in fantasy.
- RB74 - Kaleb Johnson (-4)
- RB75 - Emari Demercado (-7)
- RB76 - A.J. Dillon (-1)
- RB77 - Trevor Etienne (-4)
- RB78 - Zavier Scott (-1)
- RB79 - Chris Brooks (-1)
- RB80 - Tyler Badie (+9)
- RB81 - Ameer Abdullah (New)
- RB82 - Keaton Mitchell (-3)
- RB83 - Raheem Mostert (-3)
- RB84 - Roschon Johnson (+9)
- RB85 - Joe Mixon (-2)
- RB86 - Braelon Allen (-5)
- RB87 - Dylan Laube (-5)
- RB88 - Isaac Guerendo (-3)
- RB89 - Zamir White (-3)
- RB90 - Nyheim Hines (-3)
- RB91 - Ty Johnson (-3)
- RB92 - MarShawn Lloyd (-2)
- RB93 - Jaylen Wright (-2)
- RB94 - Chase Edmonds (-2)
- RB95 - Jarquez Hunter (-1)