With only the Super Bowl remaining of the 2020 season, the focus soon shifts entirely to 2021 and beyond. For some, the focus has already shifted, and we have some fairly robust early ADP data from actual 2021 fantasy best ball drafts to sift through. The trade market at quarterback has already started to heat up. We are headed toward an unprecedented season of quarterback movement. We also just had the Senior Bowl and NFL Draft season will start to kick into gear (though perhaps less to than normal without an NFL combine). Our dynasty goals this month are to start to nail down rookie and pick values with more accuracy, use early 2021 ADP to look for potential edges, and try to identify some players with hidden dynasty upside over the coming months.
In this month’s article, we will:
- Look at the incoming rookies through the perspective of their 2021 redraft stock and start the process of valuing these players as individuals in addition to valuing specific draft slots.
- Dive into some of the early best ball ADP numbers both to form some early projections for 2021 player values (included in each positional value chart) and to search for other insights.
- Try to look for some low-risk players who could see a nice rise in value over the next couple of months.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
2021 Rookie Picks
For the next few months, we are going to move 2021 rookie picks to the top of our list of topics instead of the bottom. It is important during this time of the dynasty season to really start fixing some potential names to draft picks. Why? Let me give a quick personal example… I recently received a tempting trade offer that involved me giving up a few players and the 1.10 rookie pick (Superflex). My initial reaction was to accept but, before doing so, I wanted to make sure I was looking at it from every angle. Part of that process for me involves actually putting some potential names on the pick(s) involved. In this case, when I looked closer at some players likely to be available in the late-1st round of a Superflex rookie draft (Trey Lance, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, Javonte Williams, etc.), I ended up deciding the price was too high and declined. You may not fully appreciate the value of a pick until you try to place a dynasty value on the actual incoming rookies who might be available at that part of the draft.
At this time of year, there are two separate and distinct considerations when it comes to valuing rookies. The first is the actual value of specific players right now. This is especially important in at least a couple of specific circumstances:
- Startup dynasty leagues occurring before the NFL Draft in which you can draft rookies directly.
- Devy leagues where many of these players are actually rostered already.
In addition to these specific use cases, we also want to start the process of valuing these players individually because it is the best way to contextualize the dynasty trade value of our 2021 rookie picks. Do not make a trade involving a rookie pick without at least trying to figure out the few players who are likely to be drafted with the pick. Without at least trying to view the draft pick as an actual soon-to-be-rookie player, you are much more likely to undervalue the pick and make a trade you will end up regretting in a couple of months.
One way to start that process is to start guessing how much 2021 fantasy value these incoming rookies will have. We actually already have some good data with which to do that. New 2021 best-ball drafts are already starting in earnest, and we have some relatively robust ADP information with which to work from Underdog Fantasy. In the below table, we include the redraft ADP and a predicted 2021 fantasy value for each of the 22 rookies who are currently going in the Top 200. We also have assigned initial dynasty trade values for each player for both single quarterback and Superflex leagues.
Continue reading this article with a 100% free Insider subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, ESPN