Sunday Morning Update
Update #2: 12:00 PM EST
D'Andre Swift has been ruled out with illness. This to me screams that the Eagles could pull their starters early, but also should massively increase the value of Kenneth Gainwellthis week. At $4,900 he jumps up to the top of the board for me.
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,500
- RB Zamir White, LV, $6,500
- RB Pierre Strong Jr, CLE, $4,600
- WR Davante Adams, LV, $7,700
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,000
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $10,000
- TE Davis Allen, LAR, $4,400
- Flex RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI, $4,900
- TD Los Angeles Chargers, $3,300
Update #1: 11:30 AM EST
Christian Kirk has been ruled out in a complete surprise to me after reports yesterday. Admittedly I should have had a better backup plan.
Also, there are some weird things going on with players like Jordan Mason and Ronnie Rivers. Both players are second on their team in touchdown props with Ronnie Rivers (+320) being massively behind Royce Freeman. This is likely just a stay away situation for me this week instead of trying to predict who is going to get the split touches. Instead going with players that have a more definitive role. With A.J. Dillon out, Aaron Jones should once again see close to 20 touches this week. Davis Allen, is just a punt play, but with Tyler Higbee out, he did have four receptions in Week 14.
I realize that some of this is completely different than the rankings that were established, but new information can significantly change the rankings. Happy to answer any questions knotts@footballguys.com or on Twitter twitter.com/devinknottsfbg
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,500
- RB Zamir White, LV, $6,500
- RB Pierre Strong Jr, CLE, $4,600
- WR Davante Adams, LV, $7,700
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,000
- WR A.J. Brown, PHi, $8,200
- TE Davis Allen, LAR, $4,400
- Flex RB Aaron Jones, GB $6,800
- TD Los Angeles Chargers, $3,300
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE
- Dallas (at WAS) – 29.5 points
- Buffalo (at MIA) – 26.5 points
- Seattle (at ARI) – 25.25 points
Week 17 Recap
Week 17 was a difficult week. It was one of those weeks, where I made bad 50/50 coinflip decisions. Having Davante Adams in the lineup up until the Sunday morning update was a killer as Adams had 13 receptions for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Chris Olave had 3 receptions for just 26 yards.
Then fading both Lamar Jackson and Breece Hall had its risks. The reason that I faded them was largely due to the lack of floor, but for both to hit their ceiling game on the same week made it almost impossible to come back from.
There were some good things, but not enough of them. Kyren Williams was the top overall running back, and a good pivot away from Christian McCaffrey.
Total Points: 111.86
- QB Jarrett Stidham, DEN, $6,100- 13.56
- RB Zamir White, LV, $6,100- 13.1
- RB De'Von Achane, MIA, $6,900- 21.7
- WR Chris Olave, NO, 7,400- 4.1
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,300- 12.2
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, TEN, $6,700- 10.7
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,700- 4.4
- Flex RB Kyren Williams, LAR, $9,400-29.1
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,400- 3.0
Injuries Create Opportunity:
There honestly are too many injury situations to list out all of them, but we will do our best for the most relevant one's for this week.
Teams Resting their Starters:
- Cleveland Browns
- San Francisco 49ers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Kansas City Chiefs
Other Injuries
- Tee Higgins will miss this week with a hamstring injury. This should increase Ja'Marr Chase's value, although with other top wide receivers in must-win games, Chase is likely a GPP only option although his price at $7,800 is very affordable reduced by some of his recent struggles.
- Zach Wilson will miss this week. Trevor Siemian will once again get the start which should help Breece Hall and his reception upside this week.
- Nick Mullens will start for Minnesota. This is a big boost to the offense that struggled with Jaren Hall as their starter last week.
- Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence remain questionable. In a game that they need to win in order to win the AFC South, it seems likely they're going to everything they can to play this week. Kirk is minimum priced at just $4,000 and if he plays he would be a great option this week.
- Kansas City's running back room could be interesting this week as Isiah Pacheco is questionable to play. If he plays, there's not much to like, as he'll likely be limited in his number of touches. However, if the Chiefs choose to sit him this week, La'Mical Perine would become cash game viable at just $5,000.
Week 18 Be Careful
Footballguys’ Jeff Bell did a great series of motivation for Week 18. The link below takes you to the team motivation, but he also breaks it down by position in subsequent links in that file. https://www.footballguys.com/article/2023-week-18-team-motivation
Be careful with Week 18. It is without question the most unpredictable week of the season. The problem with unpredictability in cash games is that everyone gravitates towards the known players and builds very similar rosters. For example, Everyone knows that Dallas, Miami, Buffalo, and Philadelphia are the four teams that you’re going to want to target. They also know that players such as Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Ronnie Rivers, and Zamir White are cheap enough at running back and should be in line to have some of the most carries on this slate. Therefore, most rosters will look very similar this week with a high priced quarterback and wide receivers and then punting on these low end running backs. This will make it extremely difficult to get an edge based on the overlap between the lineups. While there may be a slight edge especially in low dollar contests as players may not have a subscription or tools that they utilize, that edge is small as a vast majority of players are using some form of subscription model at this point in the season.
Week 18 Cash Game Rankings
ROADBLOCk
| Quarterback | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Josh Allen | 22.6 | 9500 | If not for turnovers and some early season struggles, Josh Allen would be running away with the MVP vote this season. What he has done, especially rushing the ball has been remarkable as Allen now has eight rushing touchdowns over his last five games. In a must-win game against the Dolphins, expect the offense to run through the quarterback this week. While Miami's defense has been good for most of the season, they did allow 320 passing yards and 4 touchdowns while adding an additional 17 rushing yards and a touchdown in their early season meetings as it was Allen's best game of the season as the Bills won 48-20. |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | 21.8 | 8700 | Dak Prescott facing against the worst pass defense in the NFL should be a no-brainer, but on the road this Cowboys offense just has not been the same. Prescott is averaging just 220 yards on the road compared to 309 at home as the team has struggled with consistently moving the ball away from AT&T Stadium all season. With Washington's lack of offensive output, this also could be a situation where if the Cowboys do get up in this game, they just sit on the lead and go with a run-heavy approach. He's certainly a good play, but the difference between Prescott and Allen is slim, so the lack of rushing upside combined with the road struggles has Prescott at number two this week. |
| 3 | Nick Mullens | 15.6 | 7100 | If you want to go cheap, Nick Mullens is the play this week. While turnovers have been an issue for Mullens as he has thrown six interceptions in two games, he gives the Vikings the best chance to win this week and has shown he is more than capable of moving the ball downfield. Mullens has averaged 357 yards and 2 touchdowns in his two starts and is facing a Lions defense that has allowed 345 yards and 411 yards in their last two games with the latter being to Mullens. Detroit has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and in a game that Minnesota has to have to stay alive in the playoff race, we could see Mullens throwing until the last second. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jordan Mason | 11.4 | 5700 | With no Christian McCaffrey this week, Jordan Mason is in line to take over a bulk of the work for the 49ers. Mason has shown he's an explosive back averaging 5.6 yards-per-carry throughout his two year career, but this is his first opportunity to be that primary guy. Facing a Rams defense that is likely going to be resting a significant number of starters, Mason should have an advantage this week especially as teams typically do no have the roster space to bench the entire offensive line. |
| 2 | Pierre Strong | 10.8 | 4600 | The Browns have not announced any players sitting outside of Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper, although did say that they would be resting their starters. With all of the injuries that they've had, it would seem a bit odd to start Jerome Ford this week especially when they have a more than capable back in Strong who has been great this season averaging 4.6 yards-per-carry. Strong is a downhill, straight forward power back who should have a significant opportunity this week against Cincinnati. |
| 3 | Rachaad White | 15.1 | 7700 | In a must-win game for the Buccaneers, Rachaad White should be looked at to take advantage of this weak Carolina run defense. In their first meeting, White had 18.1 fantasy points as he had 106 total yards while adding a touchdown and three receptions. On the season, he has been a tremendous surprise for the Buccaneers who have had struggles in the run game since 2015 and Doug Martin. White needs 85 yards to have the first 1,000 yard season since Martin. Carolina is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, while having the league's best pass defense which should lean the Buccaneers toward running the ball in this matchup. |
| 4 | Zamir White | 12.2 | 6500 | For White, while he did not have a massive game last week, he was more than usable in cash games as he had 106 total yards with five receptions for 13.1 FanDuel points. FanDuel's pricing team must have taken the week off, as they did not adjust White or Davante Adams price based on their performances last week which is going to make them a value this week. At just $6,500 to get a running back who has 20 carries in back-to-back games and has topped 100-yards in back-to-back games is seemingly a no-brainer. |
| 5 | Ronnie Rivers | 9.2 | 4400 | For Rivers, it comes down to price. At $4,400, he's as cheap as we've seen a starting running back this season as he will be filling in for Kyren Williams who will sit this week. The only question about Rivers is whether Royce Freeman eats into his carries as this seems to be a situation similar to Zach Evans/Darrell Henderson earlier this year where the younger player got most of the love from fantasy experts, yet it was the veteran Freeman who saw most of the carries in those games. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | CeeDee Lamb | 20.1 | 10000 | At $10,000 it's expensive, but with all of the value on the board this week is more than doable. With the health of Tyreek Hill still not seeming to be 100%, Lamb is in a class of his own this week. Lamb had 13 receptions for 227 yards and a touchdown against Detroit last week. In an offense that seemingly lacks playmakers alongside Lamb as Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup have been disappointing, this is an offense that should go through Lamb this week. The only question is whether you can build a lineup that you're comfortable with at $10,000 and some other intriguing high-priced players, but he should be in a great spot this week. |
| 2 | Christian Kirk | 8.8 | 4000 | At minimum price this week, this is just an oversight by FanDuel. If Kirk plays this week, Jacksonville is going to want to get him involved in a must-win game against Tennessee as if they win this game they win the division. If they lose this week, they can not win the division and therefore will need some help in order to get into the playoffs. At $4k, we aren't needing much to hit value, but if he can get to 50+ yards which is something he has done seven times this season, he will reach value. |
| 3 | Davante Adams | 13.3 | 6700 | Adams' price just seems to not have increased as it much as it should have after his 13 reception 126 yard 2 touchdown performance. While he has been somewhat inconsistent this season, he's a player who has tremendous upside as he showed last week. With no Josh Jacobs, Adams has topped 100-yards in two of the three games, as the only game he did not was against Kansas City in which Las Vegas had success running the ball and simply did not try to throw the ball once they got out to a lead. Overall the Broncos defense has been good this season, but they have struggled against number one receivers as DJ Moore, Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, and Amon-Ra St. Brown all had big games against Denver this season. |
| 4 | Justin Jefferson | 15.3 | 9000 | Jefferson struggled last week with 5 receptions for 59 yards compared to his standard, but that largely was not his fault. With Jaren Hall as the starter, Hall has shown an inability to throw the ball consistently downfield. Nick Mullens will be a welcome return for Jefferson who in their only game together had 6 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown. Detroit's secondary is coming off of a 13-reception, 227-yard, 1-touchdown performance from CeeDee Lamb, and we have to think that Minnesota is looking to utilize Jefferson in a similar way this week in order to take advantage of this struggling secondary. |
| 5 | Tyreek Hill | 19.7 | 9500 | If you told me that Tyreek Hill was 100% healthy, he would likely be at or near number one this week. While he did have a full participation in Friday's practice, that's often a walk-through type practice as he was a full participant in Friday last week. Hill has not topped 100-yards in his last three games and was shut down against Buffalo earlier this season as they held him to just three receptions for 58 yards. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Trey McBride | 10.7 | 6800 | For McBride, he's now had two poor games compared to his standards over the last two weeks. Over those two weeks, he is averaging just 6 receptions for 39.5 receiving yards per game. The good news is that the targets continue to be there. He's too athletic to average 6.6 yards-per-catch when his season average is 10.8 prior to the last two weeks. The targets continue to be there for McBride as he has averaged 8.6 targets per game over his last seven games with no game being below seven targets. |
| 2 | Gerald Everett | 6.6 | 5200 | The targets continue to be there for Gerald Everett, but we have not seen that translate into fantasy production just yet. Everett has eight or more targets in each of his last four games, but similar to McBride, recent yards-per-catch numbers have been down for Everett who is averaging just 8.1 on the season compared to his 10.0 average across his seven year NFL career. Easton Stick likely limits some of that explosiveness as they're using him more as a check-down release valve type player, but on a week where there are not many great tight ends, getting a player at $5,200 who has a significant role in this offense could be good enough this week. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Cincinnati | 10.5 | 4000 | Cleveland is starting Jeff Driskel who has been on the team for just eight days. Meanwhile Trey Hendrickson is tied for the NFL lead in sacks with T.J. Watt and 0.5 ahead of Josh Allen. This is a Bengals defense that has struggled, but with the Browns seemingly aligned on resting a vast majority of their offense, Hendrickson could have a big day this week. |
| 2 | Detroit | 8.8 | 4500 | Nick Mullens has thrown six interceptions over his last two games. While Detroit's defense has struggled, this is still an opportunity where they could give up a lot of points, yet make enough plays on turnovers to be worth the $4,500 cost. |
Lineups
Overview
One thing to call out here as some people have been asking about what the lineups mean. This article is a cash game article, and we evaluate the article’s success or failure each week based on the Primary Cash Lineup. The other lineups are more just fun lineups to give an idea of lineup construction and my current thinking but have a significantly less amount of time put into them than the Primary Cash Lineup does, as that has in most cases 10-15 hours of tinkering, research, and thought put into just building that one lineup.
For better GPP advice, I would check out Dan Hindery’s Weekly GPP article as he breaks down in much more detail how to approach GPP’s every week.
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 128.2)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,500
- RB Zamir White, LV, $6,500
- RB Pierre Strong Jr, CLE, $4,600
- WR Christian Kirk, JAC, $4,000
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,000
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $10,000
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,700
- Flex RB Jordan Mason, SF, $5,700
- TD Cincinnati Bengals, $4,000
ROSTER 2 ($60K) –Cash Plus - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = N/A)
A cash-plus lineup is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
No cash plush this week. Honestly, I couldn’t find a lineup that I liked more than the primary cash lineup.
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 125.0)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the higher-rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $9,500
- RB RB Jordan Mason, SF, $5,700
- RB Pierre Strong Jr, CLE, $4,600
- WR Christian Kirk, JAC, $4,000
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,000
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $10,000
- TE Gerald Everett, LAC, $5,200
- Flex WR Davante Adams, LV, $7,700
- TD Cincinnati Bengals, $4,000
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