Dynasty Trade Value Chart: August

Dan Hindery's Dynasty Trade Value Chart: August Dan Hindery Published 08/02/2021

Football is finally back after a long offseason. Prepare yourself for the fire hose of incoming player news. For the first time, I now have an easy way to regularly update the quickly changing dynasty values in the month of August: the Dynasty Trade Value Chart app and the Trade Calculator (links below). Look for the values there to be updated weekly (plus soon after any major news breaks).

In this month’s dynasty trade value article we will go deeper on:

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Dynasty Web Apps

We recently introduced a customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the player values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. The newest version is available here:

Adjustable Dynasty Trade Values

We also made a simple dynasty trade value calculator that allows you to analyze potential deals by entering the players and picks involved. It is available here:

Dynasty Trade Calculator

Again, these are still in the early stages so any and all feedback is appreciated (hindery@footballguys.com or @hindery on twitter).

Quarterback

Pos Rank
Player
Single-QB
Superflex
1 Patrick Mahomes II 26 60
2 Josh Allen 21 54
3 Kyler Murray 20 52
4 Lamar Jackson 19 50
5 Justin Herbert 16 50
6 Dak Prescott 16 48
7 Joe Burrow 15 45
8 Trevor Lawrence 14 42
9 Trey Lance 12 40
10 Justin Fields 10 36
11 Russell Wilson 10 35
12 Deshaun Watson 9 30
13 Zach Wilson 8 28
14 Matthew Stafford 7 26
15 Ryan Tannehill 7 26
16 Jalen Hurts 6 23
17 Aaron Rodgers 6 23
18 Tom Brady 6 18
19 Tua Tagovailoa 5 23
20 Baker Mayfield 5 22
21 Mac Jones 5 18
22 Kirk Cousins 4 15
23 Carson Wentz 4 14
24 Matt Ryan 3 15
25 Daniel Jones 3 14
26 Derek Carr 3 14
27 Sam Darnold 3 14
28 Jared Goff 2 12
29 Jordan Love 2 9
30 Ben Roethlisberger 2 8
31 Ryan Fitzpatrick 2 8
32 Jameis Winston 1 7
33 Jimmy Garoppolo 1 7
34 Taysom Hill 1 7
35 Drew Lock 1 6
36 Teddy Bridgewater 1 6
37 Cam Newton 1 6
38 Kellen Mond 1 6
39 Davis Mills 1 6
40 Kyle Trask 1 6

Hurts Future?

From a dynasty value perspective, the news surrounding the extent of the Eagles interest in Deshaun Watson moved the dial most in terms of players moving up and down. It was already priced in that 2021 would be a “prove-it year” for Hurts. Based on some of the buzz putting Philadelphia as the heavy favorite to land Watson, Hurts may not even get a fair shake. At the very least, the bar is likely even higher in terms of what Hurts has to achieve to cement his status as the Eagles franchise passer.

There is some cognitive dissonance when it comes to ranking Hurts. He is over a year younger than Joe Burrow and going earlier than Burrow in 2021 redraft leagues. Typically when a very young player like Hurts is more highly valued in redraft than in dynasty, that is a sign he may be undervalued and a nice trade target. However, looks can be deceiving in this case. If you were setting odds of whether Burrow is the starter in Cincinnati in 2022, you would put them at nearly 100%. For Hurts, the odds of him being the Eagles starter in 2022 may be less than 50%. Hurts’ value is fragile and if you are able to swap him for a quarterback with a safer long-term outlook, even if it requires adding extra pieces to do so, that is the recommended move. If Hurts is one season and done as a starter, we will look back on this summer as the time we should have tried to sell high in dynasty.

Running Back

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1 Christian McCaffrey 48
2 Jonathan Taylor 42
3 Dalvin Cook 42
4 Saquon Barkley 41
5 Alvin Kamara 40
6 Najee Harris 35
7 Derrick Henry 35
8 Ezekiel Elliott 34
9 Nick Chubb 33
10 Antonio Gibson 33
11 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 31
12 DAndre Swift 30
13 J.K. Dobbins 30
14 Joe Mixon 29
15 Austin Ekeler 28
16 Aaron Jones 26
17 Travis Etienne 23
18 Javonte Williams 23
19 Miles Sanders 22
20 David Montgomery 21
21 Josh Jacobs 20
22 Trey Sermon 16
23 Chris Carson 16
24 Darrell Henderson 15
25 Kareem Hunt 12
26 Michael Carter 11
27 Myles Gaskin 11
28 Chase Edmonds 10
29 Damien Harris 10
30 James Robinson 9
31 Cam Akers 8
32 Mike Davis 8
33 A.J. Dillon 8
34 Leonard Fournette 7
35 Ronald Jones II 7
36 Tony Pollard 7
37 Zack Moss 7
38 Raheem Mostert 6
39 Melvin Gordon 5
40 Chuba Hubbard 4
41 Kenyan Drake 4
42 Alexander Mattison 4
43 James Conner 4
44 Devin Singletary 4
45 Gus Edwards 4
46 Nyheim Hines 4
47 Jamaal Williams 4
48 David Johnson 3
49 Rhamondre Stevenson 3
50 Kenneth Gainwell 3
51 Rashaad Penny 3
52 Tarik Cohen 2
53 Elijah Mitchell 2
54 Marlon Mack 2
55 J.D. McKissic 2
56 Phillip Lindsay 2
57 Darrynton Evans 2
58 Latavius Murray 2

Akers fallout

The torn Achilles was brutal news for Cam Akers. Not great for those counting on him as their fantasy RB1 the next half a decade either. As far as his future, this will be a fascinating medical case study to see how much the science of surgery and rehab has come. Dr. Jene Bramel seems quite skeptical of the prospect of Akers ever fully regaining his burst and he is the best in the business, so that is my default mindset as well. In terms of trade value, this is one of those times where it comes down to both your gut feeling and some back-of-the-envelope math. Akers was worth 30+ before the injury. Do you think there’s a 25% chance he gets back close to what he was? A 10% chance? Figure out where you land on the confidence scale in his recovery and value him accordingly.

This is one of those times where at least having the mental framework in place that allows you to combine potential value numbers in a specific scenario (full recovery or close to it) with your personal feelings about his chances of recovery to quickly adjust how you value the player. Your valuation will only be as good as your assumptions but it should make the process much easier.

Let us assume that the trade value of Akers settles in at a future second-round pick. Is he a buy or sell? This is where understanding the strengths and weaknesses of your roster is key. Are you deep enough to swing for the fences by trading for a player who may provide you nothing? If so, acquiring Akers at a reasonable price is probably a risk worth considering.

Darrell Henderson makes for a solid trade target at this juncture. If you are going to assume Akers only has a 25% chance of recovering his starting-caliber athleticism before next year, then all of a sudden Henderson’s odds of having value beyond this season look pretty strong. Combine that with his value for 2021 (I view him as a nice 4th or 5th-round redraft target) and there is some real value there.

Wide Receiver

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1 Justin Jefferson 40
2 Tyreek Hill 40
3 DK Metcalf 40
4 A.J. Brown 40
5 Stefon Diggs 38
6 CeeDee Lamb 36
7 JaMarr Chase 36
8 Davante Adams 35
9 Calvin Ridley 34
10 Terry McLaurin 28
11 DeAndre Hopkins 26
12 D.J. Moore 26
13 Amari Cooper 26
14 Mike Evans 26
15 Tee Higgins 26
16 Chris Godwin 26
17 Brandon Aiyuk 25
18 Allen Robinson 25
19 Keenan Allen 23
20 DeVonta Smith 22
21 Jerry Jeudy 21
22 Jaylen Waddle 20
23 Diontae Johnson 20
27 Michael Thomas 18
24 Chase Claypool 18
25 Cooper Kupp 18
26 Robert Woods 18
28 Courtland Sutton 17
29 Laviska Shenault 17
31 Kenny Golladay 16
30 JuJu Smith-Schuster 15
33 D.J. Chark 15
34 Tyler Lockett 15
32 Rashod Bateman 14
35 Elijah Moore 14
36 Odell Beckham 14
38 Deebo Samuel 13
37 Julio Jones 12
39 Mike Williams 12
40 Tyler Boyd 11
41 Michael Gallup 11
42 Rondale Moore 11
43 Michael Pittman 11
44 Robby Anderson 11
45 Curtis Samuel 10
46 Adam Thielen 10
47 Terrace Marshall 10
48 Kadarius Toney 9
49 Mecole Hardman 9
50 Darnell Mooney 9
51 Henry Ruggs 9
52 Marquise Brown 8
53 Will Fuller 8
54 Corey Davis 7
55 Jarvis Landry 7
56 Brandin Cooks 7
57 Jalen Reagor 7
58 Antonio Brown 6
59 DeVante Parker 6
60 Gabriel Davis 5
61 DWayne Eskridge 5
62 Amon-Ra St. Brown 5
63 Bryan Edwards 5
64 Parris Campbell 5
65 Nico Collins 5
66 Russell Gage 5
67 TreQuan Smith 5
68 Dyami Brown 4
69 Cole Beasley 4
70 Nelson Agholor 4
71 Amari Rodgers 4
72 Josh Palmer 4
73 Sterling Shepard 4
74 T.Y. Hilton 4
75 Christian Kirk 4
76 Jakobi Meyers 4
77 Jaelon Darden 4
78 Denzel Mims 3
79 K.J. Hamler 3
80 Tutu Atwell 3
81 Marvin Jones 3
82 Van Jefferson 3
83 Josh Reynolds 2
84 Jamison Crowder 2
85 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2
86 Anthony Schwartz 2
87 Tylan Wallace 2

Michael Thomas and updating priors

Let’s start with a quick refresher on the general logic behind the numbers you see in the dynasty trade value chart. Each season a player provides fantasy value to your team and the dynasty values are meant to be a mean of the drange of outcomes for a player’s remaining career. The back of the napkin math is based upon points scored per game minus replacement value at the position each season. Call this PPGAR for short (points per game above replacement.

This is a relevant consideration because sometimes adjusting dynasty values based upon new information for the current season can be very straightforward. Michael Thomas was being valued as a mid-to-low WR1 prior to the injury news. In numerical terms, the projection was approximately 6 PPGAR for 2021. Thomas is now expected to miss approximately half the season and may not be 100% when he does return. Let’s estimate that his PPGAR drops from 6 to 2 for 2021. So Thomas would see his dynasty value decrease by 4 based upon the injury news (from 27 last month to 23 now).

However, in this case, it probably makes sense to update our prior conceptions about the remainder of Thomas’ career above and beyond a simple recalculation of his 2021 value. There is a misconception amongst some film-centric fantasy analysts that those using probabilities, analytics, or other data-based insights use only those methods. For most, things are not so black and white. There is plenty of room for subjectively judging talent and using gut feel even when viewing things through a probabilistic lens. In this specific case, the gut feeling is that we should also feel less confident about the career projection for Thomas beyond 2021 based upon recent news. Why did it take so long for Thomas to get his surgery? What is going on with him mentally? Ia he wearing out his welcome in New Orleans? Prime Michael Thomas was far better than prime Alshon Jeffery but factoring in the possibility of a Jeffery-like post-prime career arc for Thomas pushes his future value down a bit more than just the value adjustment for 2021.

Rookie Drumbeats

PSA: Last August, Justin Jefferson was reportedly having a mediocre training camp while Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards were earning heavy praise from Raiders beat writers. Take preseason hype with a major grain of salt.

Keeping in mind that we do not want to make drastic changes in the way we value players based merely off of August hype, we can still make some minor adjustments up and down based upon camp reports and the deluge of news we are about to receive.

Here are some very early returns on rookie wide receivers:

  • JaMarr Chase seems to be who the Bengals thought he was when they selected him with the 5th-pick overall.
  • DeVonta Smith looks like the clear WR1 for the Eagles already. On a related note, the vibes around Jalen Reagor do not feel great. If we do not start seeing signs of major growth in the next couple months, the bust label could start being attached to his name.
  • Terrace Marshall has not been slowed by a lingering injury that seemed to impact his draft stock and is off to a hot start in training camp.
  • Rashod Bateman is making plays in Baltimore camp. But there have also been positive reports about Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and even J.K. Dobbins as a pass catcher. There are only so many balls to go around in a run-first offense. Feels like status quo: Bateman is good but may not make a major fantasy impact anytime soon.
  • Kadarius Toney has gotten his career off on the wrong foot. First it was shoes that didn’t fit and barefoot practices. Then it was conditioning issues. Then an inexplicable absence from OTAs. The latest is a delayed start to his preseason due to COVID. Let’s not overreact too drastically, however. As Allen Iverson said, “We talking about practice. Not a game.”

PSA2: The four Footballguys preseason training camp reports, the first of which will be out the week of August 9th, do an incredible job of distilling all of this information into an easily digestible format. It is a highly-recommended resource for all serious dynasty enthusiasts.

Tight End

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1 Kyle Pitts 33
2 George Kittle 27
3 Travis Kelce 25
4 Darren Waller 24
5 T.J. Hockenson 18
6 Mark Andrews 16
7 Noah Fant 11
8 Dallas Goedert 8
9 Mike Gesicki 6
10 Irv Smith 6
11 Logan Thomas 6
12 Adam Trautman 6
13 Tyler Higbee 6
14 Cole Kmet 6
15 Pat Freiermuth 6
16 Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Dynasty Rankings Davante Adams Nelson Agholor Brandon Aiyuk Cam Akers Josh Allen Keenan Allen Robbie Chosen Mark Andrews Tutu Atwell Saquon Barkley Rashod Bateman Cole Beasley Odell Beckham Jr Tyler Boyd Tom Brady Teddy Bridgewater A.J. Brown Antonio Brown Dyami Brown Marquise Brown Harrison Bryant Joe Burrow Parris Campbell Derek Carr Chris Carson Michael Carter II Ja'Marr Chase Nick Chubb D.J. Chark Jr Chase Claypool Nico Collins James Conner Brandin Cooks Dalvin Cook Jared Cook Amari Cooper Kirk Cousins Jamison Crowder Jaelon Darden Sam Darnold Corey Davis Gabe Davis Mike Davis Stefon Diggs AJ Dillon J.K. Dobbins Kenyan Drake Eric Ebron Chase Edmonds Bryan Edwards Clyde Edwards-Helaire Gus Edwards Austin Ekeler Ezekiel Elliott Evan Engram Zach Ertz Dee Eskridge Travis Etienne Jr. Darrynton Evans Mike Evans Gerald Everett Noah Fant Justin Fields Anthony Firkser Ryan Fitzpatrick Leonard Fournette Pat Freiermuth Will Fuller V Russell Gage Kenneth Gainwell Michael Gallup Jimmy Garoppolo Myles Gaskin Mike Gesicki Antonio Gibson Chris Godwin Dallas Goedert Jared Goff Kenny Golladay Melvin Gordon III Kylen Granson Noah Gray Rob Gronkowski KJ Hamler Mecole Hardman Jr. Damien Harris Jacob Harris Najee Harris Darrell Henderson Jr. Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Justin Herbert Tyler Higbee Tee Higgins Taysom Hill Tyreek Hill T.Y. Hilton Nyheim Hines T.J. Hockenson Austin Hooper DeAndre Hopkins O.J. Howard Chuba Hubbard Kareem Hunt Hayden Hurst Jalen Hurts Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Blake Jarwin Justin Jefferson Van Jefferson Jerry Jeudy David Johnson Diontae Johnson Aaron Jones Daniel Jones Julio Jones Marvin Jones Jr Mac Jones Ronald Jones II Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce Christian Kirk George Kittle Cole Kmet Cooper Kupp CeeDee Lamb Trey Lance Jarvis Landry Trevor Lawrence Phillip Lindsay Drew Lock Tyler Lockett Hunter Long Jordan Love Marlon Mack Patrick Mahomes II Terrace Marshall Jr Alexander Mattison Baker Mayfield Christian McCaffrey J.D. McKissic Terry McLaurin DK Metcalf Jakobi Meyers Davis Mills Denzel Mims Elijah Mitchell Joe Mixon Kellen Mond David Montgomery Darnell Mooney DJ Moore Elijah Moore Rondale Moore Zack Moss Raheem Mostert Kyler Murray Latavius Murray Cam Newton Joshua Palmer DeVante Parker Rashaad Penny Kyle Pitts Michael Pittman Jr Tony Pollard Dak Prescott Jalen Reagor Josh Reynolds Calvin Ridley Allen Robinson II James Robinson Aaron Rodgers Amari Rodgers Ben Roethlisberger Henry Ruggs III Matt Ryan Curtis Samuel Deebo Samuel Miles Sanders Anthony Schwartz Trey Sermon Laviska Shenault Jr Sterling Shepard Devin Singletary DeVonta Smith Irv Smith Jr. Jonnu Smith JuJu Smith-Schuster Tre'Quan Smith Matthew Stafford Amon-Ra St. Brown Rhamondre Stevenson Courtland Sutton D'Andre Swift Tua Tagovailoa Ryan Tannehill Jonathan Taylor Adam Thielen Logan Thomas Michael Thomas Kadarius Toney Robert Tonyan Jr Kyle Trask Adam Trautman Tommy Tremble Marquez Valdes-Scantling Jaylen Waddle Darren Waller Tylan Wallace Sammy Watkins Deshaun Watson Carson Wentz Jamaal Williams Javonte Williams Mike Williams Russell Wilson Zach Wilson Jameis Winston Robert Woods

More by Dan Hindery

 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: July

Dan Hindery

Quantifying Long-term Player Values

07/03/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: June

Dan Hindery

Long-term player values and dynasty trade targets

06/03/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: May

Dan Hindery

Long-term player values for dynasty leagues

05/02/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: April

Dan Hindery

Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

04/04/25 Read More
 

Stock Up, Stock Down: How the NFL Combine Moved Rookie ADP

Dan Hindery

Post-Combine ADP movement in Underdog Best Ball Drafts

03/10/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: March

Dan Hindery

Dynasty trade value can fluctuate; our Dan Hindery has this month's update for your dynasty leagues.

03/05/25 Read More