In dynasty leagues, July is the calm before the storm. News will be flying fast and furious in August. We will see some wild swings in player values. There is nothing better than listening to The Audible in August and hearing Sigmund Bloom talk about the "drumbeats" as we start to stack positive report after positive report about certain breakout candidates in training camp. The goal this month is to try to see if we can get out ahead of those drumbeats and acquire some of these soon-to-be training camp risers before their dynasty values really explode.
In this month’s dynasty trade value article, we will go deeper on:
- Look at the Why? behind recent best ball risers and fallers and analyze how much the shifts in redraft value should impact our dynasty valuations.
- Take a closer look at some of the bigger OTA storylines.
- Introduce another new dynasty app: our Dynasty Trade Calculator.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues with a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you give up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Dynasty Web Apps
Last month we introduced the customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. Version 3.0 (with updated July trade values) is available here:
Thanks to all those who provided feedback over the past month. The most commonly requested new feature was to have the option to view the information in trade calculator form instead of having to search through the chart. To that end, here is a simple dynasty trade value calculator (featuring customizable league size, lineup, and scoring) that allows you to analyze potential deals by entering the players and picks involved. It is available here:
Again, these are still in the early stages, so any feedback is appreciated (hindery@footballguys.com or @hindery on Twitter).
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Single-QB
|
Superflex
|
|
1
|
26
|
60
|
|
|
2
|
22
|
54
|
|
|
3
|
21
|
52
|
|
|
4
|
19
|
50
|
|
|
5
|
18
|
50
|
|
|
6
|
17
|
48
|
|
|
7
|
16
|
45
|
|
|
8
|
14
|
42
|
|
|
9
|
12
|
40
|
|
|
10
|
11
|
35
|
|
|
11
|
10
|
36
|
|
|
12
|
10
|
28
|
|
|
13
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
14
|
8
|
28
|
|
|
15
|
7
|
26
|
|
|
16
|
7
|
26
|
|
|
17
|
6
|
23
|
|
|
18
|
6
|
23
|
|
|
19
|
6
|
21
|
|
|
20
|
6
|
15
|
|
|
21
|
5
|
18
|
|
|
22
|
5
|
17
|
|
|
23
|
4
|
15
|
|
|
24
|
3
|
15
|
|
|
25
|
3
|
14
|
|
|
26
|
2
|
14
|
|
|
27
|
2
|
13
|
|
|
28
|
2
|
12
|
|
|
29
|
2
|
9
|
|
|
30
|
2
|
9
|
|
|
31
|
1
|
7
|
|
|
32
|
1
|
7
|
|
|
33
|
1
|
7
|
|
|
34
|
1
|
7
|
|
|
35
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
36
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
37
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
38
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
39
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
40
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
41
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
42
|
0
|
2
|
|
|
43
|
0
|
2
|
Best Ball ADP Movers
- Joe Burrow’s ADP has risen (QB9 at 95th overall) after positive training camp reports about his health and the added zip he is showing on passes.
Bengals OC Brian Callahan: Joe Burrow's throwing with a little more velocity. https://t.co/LlkhCO9dBd
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) June 23, 2021
- Ryan Tannehill has leapfrogged Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers in best ball drafts since the Julio Jones trade and remains an underrated dynasty commodity.
- Trey Lance is now going ahead of Trevor Lawrence despite Lawrence being a much safer bet to open the season as a starter.
- Zach Wilson has risen slightly, and the first impression he has made on his teammates seems positive so far. Most reports have Wilson making a smooth transition to starting NFL quarterback.
Zach Wilson earned rave reviews this spring ... but the really hard part is still to come for the young Jets QB ... https://t.co/frcXHRFVR4 pic.twitter.com/mf0CpIbwg9
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RVacchianoSNY) June 18, 2021
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
48
|
|
|
2
|
42
|
|
|
3
|
41
|
|
|
4
|
40
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
36
|
|
|
7
|
34
|
|
|
8
|
33
|
|
|
9
|
32
|
|
|
10
|
30
|
|
|
11
|
30
|
|
|
12
|
30
|
|
|
13
|
29
|
|
|
14
|
29
|
|
|
15
|
29
|
|
|
16
|
27
|
|
|
17
|
26
|
|
|
18
|
25
|
|
|
19
|
25
|
|
|
20
|
23
|
|
|
21
|
21
|
|
|
22
|
20
|
|
|
23
|
17
|
|
|
24
|
15
|
|
|
25
|
12
|
|
|
26
|
11
|
|
|
27
|
10
|
|
|
28
|
10
|
|
|
29
|
10
|
|
|
30
|
9
|
|
|
31
|
8
|
|
|
32
|
8
|
|
|
33
|
7
|
|
|
34
|
7
|
|
|
35
|
7
|
|
|
36
|
Zach Moss
|
7
|
|
37
|
7
|
|
|
38
|
5
|
|
|
39
|
5
|
|
|
40
|
5
|
|
|
41
|
4
|
|
|
42
|
4
|
|
|
43
|
4
|
|
|
44
|
4
|
|
|
45
|
4
|
|
|
46
|
4
|
|
|
47
|
4
|
|
|
48
|
3
|
|
|
49
|
Kenny Gainwell
|
3
|
|
50
|
3
|
|
|
51
|
3
|
|
|
52
|
2
|
|
|
53
|
2
|
|
|
54
|
2
|
|
|
55
|
2
|
|
|
56
|
1
|
|
|
57
|
1
|
|
|
58
|
1
|
|
|
59
|
1
|
|
|
60
|
1
|
Best Ball ADP Movers
- Ezekiel Elliott’s redraft ADP has continued a slow and steady rise up to 6th overall. He has jumped Nick Chubb, Cam Akers, and Jonathan Taylor and even regularly goes ahead of Saquon Barkley in many recent drafts.
- Najee Harris is going off the board 17th overall, ahead of all but two of the second-year backs from 2020’s talented group.
- Miles Sanders is starting to slide in drafts, with his ADP drifting into the fourth round.
- Fellow third-year back Josh Jacobs also has fallen further out of favor with best-ball drafters. His ADP is 46th and dropping. This may be a case of drafters getting distracted by the shiny new object (first and second-year backs). Or it could be a completely rational value adjustment to the fact that, while Jacobs and Sanders are still young, neither has made that jump to fantasy star despite both having had real opportunities to do so.
- Trey Sermon has moved up into the 6th round (ADP of 70) and is now going a full 13 spots ahead of Raheem Mostert. If the best-ball community is correct and Sermon is the most productive back in San Francisco, he will be an even hotter dynasty commodity than he already is. There could also be a window these next couple of months to sell the hype if you are not a true believer in Sermon emerging as a fantasy star.
- Damien Harris has slowly been moving up draft boards and is now going 88th overall.
"I see Damien Harris as the RB1, and it's pretty decisive." - @MikeReiss talking #Patriots on @SiriusXMFantasy
— Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) June 25, 2021
Balancing short-term value against longer-term uncertainty
Let’s quickly zoom out a bit and talk about the difficulty in balancing short-term value against longer-term question marks. Derrick Henry makes for a great example of the conundrum. He is a top-three redraft pick in 2021, which means he should have massive short-term value. The immediate impact is hard to ignore. However, Henry is often going off the board in the middle of the first round of dynasty startups. This is a much tougher sell. At the same time, Henry is only 27 years old and could be the rare running back who continues to put up massive numbers until he turns 30. However, we were saying the same things about David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell just a few years ago. Father Time is undefeated, and nowhere is that more true than at the running back position.
You are taking a real risk by drafting or trading for Derrick Henry at his current market value. While many view risk only through the lens of whether a young player busts, there is also the risk of production drying up much more quickly than expected. The age-related risk of running backs entering their late 20s can go overlooked by less experienced dynasty players and is something that should be balanced against what feels like a sure thing in the short term.
Arizona Backfield
One of the storylines worth watching in August is how the competition for touches between Chase Edmonds and James Conner develops. This backfield is priced in both dynasty and redraft on an expectation of a roughly 55/45 split in favor of Edmonds. If you are skeptical of the narrative that this backfield will be a near-even split (like I am), Edmonds makes for an attractive trade target. If the price is right, this is a spot where the reward may outweigh the risk. Here are some reasons I am more bullish on Chase Edmonds than the consensus of the fantasy community:
- People are too afraid of James Conner based upon him being a relatively big fantasy name. The NFL does not view Conner in the same light. Here are some running backs who just signed richer free-agent deals than Conner this offseason: Devontae Booker, Mark Ingram II, Carlos Hyde, Jeff Wilson, Marlon Mack, and Mike Boone.
- Chase Edmonds could be poised for a big year as a receiver. He had 53 receptions in 2020 despite sharing the backfield with Kenyan Drake, a plus receiver. Edmonds also has the ability to flex out into the slot. In fact, he played the third-most snaps in the slot amongst all running backs last season. Edmonds should catch 60+ passes this year.
Wide Receiver
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
42
|
|
|
2
|
40
|
|
|
3
|
40
|
|
|
4
|
39
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
36
|
|
|
7
|
35
|
|
|
8
|
34
|
|
|
9
|
34
|
|
|
10
|
28
|
|
|
11
|
28
|
|
|
12
|
27
|
|
|
13
|
27
|
|
|
14
|
26
|
|
|
15
|
26
|
|
|
16
|
25
|
|
|
17
|
25
|
|
|
18
|
24
|
|
|
19
|
24
|
|
|
20
|
22
|
|
|
21
|
22
|
|
|
22
|
22
|
|
|
23
|
20
|
|
|
24
|
19
|
|
|
25
|
18
|
|
|
26
|
18
|
|
|
27
|
17
|
|
|
28
|
17
|
|
|
29
|
16
|
|
|
30
|
16
|
|
|
31
|
15
|
|
|
32
|
14
|
|
|
33
|
14
|
|
|
34
|
13
|
|
|
35
|
13
|
|
|
36
|
13
|
|
|
37
|
12
|
|
|
38
|
12
|
|
|
39
|
11
|
|
|
40
|
11
|
|
|
41
|
11
|
|
|
42
|
11
|
|
|
43
|
10
|
|
|
44
|
10
|
|
|
45
|
10
|
|
|
46
|
10
|
|
|
47
|
9
|
|
|
48
|
Robby Anderson
|
9
|
|
49
|
9
|
|
|
50
|
9
|
|
|
51
|
8
|
|
|
52
|
8
|
|
|
53
|
8
|
|
|
54
|
7
|
|
|
55
|
7
|
|
|
56
|
7
|
|
|
57
|
7
|
|
|
58
|
Gabriel Davis
|
6
|
|
59
|
DWayne Eskridge
|
6
|
|
60
|
6
|
|
|
61
|
6
|
|
|
62
|
5
|
|
|
63
|
5
|
|
|
64
|
5
|
|
|
65
|
5
|
|
|
66
|
4
|
|
|
67
|
4
|
|
|
68
|
4
|
|
|
69
|
4
|
|
|
70
|
4
|
|
|
71
|
4
|
|
|
72
|
4
|
|
|
73
|
4
|
|
|
74
|
4
|
|
|
75
|
3
|
|
|
76
|
3
|
|
|
77
|
3
|
|
|
78
|
3
|
|
|
79
|
2
|
|
|
80
|
2
|
|
|
81
|
2
|
|
|
82
|
2
|
|
|
83
|
2
|
|
|
84
|
2
|
|
|
85
|
Darius Slayton
|
2
|
|
86
|
2
|
|
|
87
|
2
|
|
|
88
|
2
|
|
|
89
|
1
|
|
|
90
|
1
|
### Best Ball ADP Movers
- A.J. Brown’s ADP has dropped slightly since the acquisition of Julio Jones. The trade does not have a major impact on Brown’s long-term value but the increased competition for targets over the next couple years may serve as a tie-breaker against Brown in the conversation around who is the top dynasty wide receiver.
- CeeDee Lamb continues to slowly creep up draft boards. He has leap-frogged teammate Amari Cooper and is now going in the third round of nearly every draft. For a player who just turned 22 years old, both the short-term and longer-term outlooks appear to be very bright.
- Tee Higgins saw his ADP fall in the months after Ja'Marr Chase was drafted, but his best ball stock has rebounded in recent weeks. The ADP gap between him and Chase has begun to narrow. It is easy to get excited about the reports out of Cincinnati about the leap Higgins has made physically. If Higgins has a big 2021 season and becomes an elite dynasty wide receiver, it may be one of those things that will look obvious with the benefit of hindsight. As a 21-year old rookie learning on the fly due to no offseason, he put up an excellent 67-908-6 line and has all the indicators of a player who should continue to improve.
Joe Burrow on Tee Higgins: "Tee's going to have a big year." Said the second-year WR looks completely different.
— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) June 15, 2021
- JuJu Smith-Schuster’s ADP has fallen to 81st overall. He has been a strong fade for me each of the last two seasons, but it now feels like the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Smith-Schuster is now underrated in both redraft and dynasty. It is worth remembering he is still only 24 years old.
- Laviska Shenault Jr’s ADP has moved up into the seventh round after glowing training camp reports. Jacksonville’s offense is one of the biggest unknowns as we head into training camp, so getting an accurate read as quickly as possible on who is most likely to be Trevor Lawrence’s go-to target will be key. Best ball drafters still prefer D.J. Chark Jr to Shenault, but the gap has closed.
Laviska Shenault Jr was the “best offensive player” at OTAs and minicamp, according to @ESPNdirocco He excels at making defenders miss and his versatility is a GREAT fit for Urban Meyer’s offensive scheme. @PFN365 #FantasyFootball #Jaguars pic.twitter.com/7W58pBCzxw
— Moody (@EricNMoody) June 26, 2021
- Elijah Moore has become a popular 9th- or 10th-round best-ball pick and regularly goes off the board ahead of veteran teammate Corey Davis. He is also being drafted as the rookie WR4 and creating separation between himself and the other rookie wide receivers like Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall Jr, and Kadarius Toney.
Tight End
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
33
|
|
|
2
|
27
|
|
|
3
|
25
|
|
|
4
|
24
|
|
|
5
|
18
|
|
|
6
|
16
|
|
|
7
|
11
|
|
|
8
|
9
|
|
|
9
|
7
|
|
|
10
|
6
|
|
|
11
|
6
|
|
|
12
|
6
|
|
|
13
|
6
|
|
|
14
|
6
|
|
|
15
|
6
|
|
|
16
|
5
|
|
|
17
|
5
|
|
|
18
|
5
|
|
|
19
|
5
|
|
|
20
|
4
|
|
|
21
|
3
|
|
|
22
|
3
|
|
|
23
|
3
|
|
|
24
|
3
|
|
|
25
|
3
|
|
|
26
|
3
|
|
|
27
|
3
|
|
|
28
|
2
|
|
|
29
|
1
|
|
|
30
|
1
|
|
|
31
|
1
|
|
|
32
|
1
|
|
|
33
|
1
|
|
|
34
|
1
|
|
|
35
|
1
|
|
|
36
|
1
|
|
|
37
|
1
|
|
|
38
|
1
|
|
|
39
|
1
|
Best Ball ADP Risers
- Kyle Pitts is now going in the fourth round of every draft. As a 20-year-old tight end! He is now going more than a round earlier than T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews.
- Noah Gray has not yet moved much in redraft, but he has been generating some early positive buzz and is worth mentioning here as a late-round rookie who we are starting to hear the beginnings of some drumbeats on.
Travis Kelce talks Noah Gray’s development at #Chiefs’ mandatory minicamp; welcome back, two-TE sets (via @pgsween): https://t.co/aX2s9NufH7
— Arrowhead Pride (@ArrowheadPride) June 15, 2021
- Jacob Harris has also been eliciting early praise. He has also been officially reclassified as a tight end on MyFantasyLeague, which is a big boost to his value.
Sean McVay didn’t blink in providing his rationale when I asked about TE Jacob Harris taking ones reps all week since Tyler Higbee is not practicing - rare air for a rookie fourth-rounder even with a starter’s absence. Of Harris, he says, "He’s earned it."
— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) June 11, 2021
Travis Kelce and Derrick Henry
We discussed above the difficulty in valuing Henry over the long term because he turned 27 years old in January and has had a heavy workload in recent years. Valuing Travis Kelce comes with similar questions. It is not uncommon to see Kelce drafted in the early first-round of superflex/TE-Premium startup drafts. Other times, he slides deep into the second round in the same format. You can see the case for both sides of the coin:
Pro: Kelce has finished as the TE1 five straight seasons. Based upon my value calculations, he has been the fourth-most valuable player at any position over the last three seasons. He has been the second-most valuable player in TE-Premium over the last three seasons (behind only Christian McCaffrey). Most of the other elite performers over this same stretch are running backs who are going into their fourth, fifth, or even sixth NFL season. It would not be a surprise to see Kelce’s prime extend as long as some of these top running backs.
Con: You do not get points for past accomplishments. While Kelce projects to be an impact fantasy performer again this season, he also turns 32 years old in October. At some point soon, you have to start projecting decreased production for Kelce. If he shows any signs of regression at all this season, he will see his dynasty trade value plummet ahead of the next offseason.
Some will point to the risk inherent in drafting Kyle Pitts early in startups, but drafting Travis Kelce also comes with a significant amount of risk, though of a different kind.