Dynasty Trade Value Chart: July

Dan Hindery's Dynasty Trade Value Chart: July Dan Hindery Published 07/01/2021

In dynasty leagues, July is the calm before the storm. News will be flying fast and furious in August. We will see some wild swings in player values. There is nothing better than listening to The Audible in August and hearing Sigmund Bloom talk about the "drumbeats" as we start to stack positive report after positive report about certain breakout candidates in training camp. The goal this month is to try to see if we can get out ahead of those drumbeats and acquire some of these soon-to-be training camp risers before their dynasty values really explode.

In this month’s dynasty trade value article, we will go deeper on:

  1. Look at the Why? behind recent best ball risers and fallers and analyze how much the shifts in redraft value should impact our dynasty valuations.
  2. Take a closer look at some of the bigger OTA storylines.
  3. Introduce another new dynasty app: our Dynasty Trade Calculator.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues with a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you give up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Dynasty Web Apps

Last month we introduced the customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. Version 3.0 (with updated July trade values) is available here:

Dynasty Trade Value App

Thanks to all those who provided feedback over the past month. The most commonly requested new feature was to have the option to view the information in trade calculator form instead of having to search through the chart. To that end, here is a simple dynasty trade value calculator (featuring customizable league size, lineup, and scoring) that allows you to analyze potential deals by entering the players and picks involved. It is available here:

Dynasty Trade Calculator

Again, these are still in the early stages, so any feedback is appreciated (hindery@footballguys.com or @hindery on Twitter).

Quarterback

Pos Rank
Player
Single-QB
Superflex
1
26
60
2
22
54
3
21
52
4
19
50
5
18
50
6
17
48
7
16
45
8
14
42
9
12
40
10
11
35
11
10
36
12
10
28
13
8
30
14
8
28
15
7
26
16
7
26
17
6
23
18
6
23
19
6
21
20
6
15
21
5
18
22
5
17
23
4
15
24
3
15
25
3
14
26
2
14
27
2
13
28
2
12
29
2
9
30
2
9
31
1
7
32
1
7
33
1
7
34
1
7
35
1
6
36
1
6
37
1
6
38
1
6
39
1
6
40
1
6
41
0
3
42
0
2
43
0
2

Best Ball ADP Movers

  • Joe Burrow’s ADP has risen (QB9 at 95th overall) after positive training camp reports about his health and the added zip he is showing on passes.
  • Ryan Tannehill has leapfrogged Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers in best ball drafts since the Julio Jones trade and remains an underrated dynasty commodity.
  • Trey Lance is now going ahead of Trevor Lawrence despite Lawrence being a much safer bet to open the season as a starter.
  • Zach Wilson has risen slightly, and the first impression he has made on his teammates seems positive so far. Most reports have Wilson making a smooth transition to starting NFL quarterback.

Running Back

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1
48
2
42
3
41
4
40
5
38
6
36
7
34
8
33
9
32
10
30
11
30
12
30
13
DAndre Swift
29
14
29
15
29
16
Travis Etienne
27
17
26
18
25
19
25
20
23
21
21
22
20
23
17
24
15
25
12
26
11
27
10
28
10
29
10
30
9
31
8
32
A.J. Dillon
8
33
7
34
7
35
7
36
Zach Moss
7
37
7
38
5
39
Darrell Henderson
5
40
Melvin Gordon
5
41
4
42
4
43
4
44
4
45
4
46
4
47
4
48
3
49
Kenny Gainwell
3
50
3
51
3
52
2
53
2
54
2
55
2
56
1
57
1
58
1
59
1
60
1

Best Ball ADP Movers

  • Ezekiel Elliott’s redraft ADP has continued a slow and steady rise up to 6th overall. He has jumped Nick Chubb, Cam Akers, and Jonathan Taylor and even regularly goes ahead of Saquon Barkley in many recent drafts.
  • Najee Harris is going off the board 17th overall, ahead of all but two of the second-year backs from 2020’s talented group.
  • Miles Sanders is starting to slide in drafts, with his ADP drifting into the fourth round.
  • Fellow third-year back Josh Jacobs also has fallen further out of favor with best-ball drafters. His ADP is 46th and dropping. This may be a case of drafters getting distracted by the shiny new object (first and second-year backs). Or it could be a completely rational value adjustment to the fact that, while Jacobs and Sanders are still young, neither has made that jump to fantasy star despite both having had real opportunities to do so.
  • Trey Sermon has moved up into the 6th round (ADP of 70) and is now going a full 13 spots ahead of Raheem Mostert. If the best-ball community is correct and Sermon is the most productive back in San Francisco, he will be an even hotter dynasty commodity than he already is. There could also be a window these next couple of months to sell the hype if you are not a true believer in Sermon emerging as a fantasy star.
  • Damien Harris has slowly been moving up draft boards and is now going 88th overall.

Balancing short-term value against longer-term uncertainty

Let’s quickly zoom out a bit and talk about the difficulty in balancing short-term value against longer-term question marks. Derrick Henry makes for a great example of the conundrum. He is a top-three redraft pick in 2021, which means he should have massive short-term value. The immediate impact is hard to ignore. However, Henry is often going off the board in the middle of the first round of dynasty startups. This is a much tougher sell. At the same time, Henry is only 27 years old and could be the rare running back who continues to put up massive numbers until he turns 30. However, we were saying the same things about David Johnson and LeVeon Bell just a few years ago. Father Time is undefeated, and nowhere is that more true than at the running back position.

You are taking a real risk by drafting or trading for Derrick Henry at his current market value. While many view risk only through the lens of whether a young player busts, there is also the risk of production drying up much more quickly than expected. The age-related risk of running backs entering their late 20s can go overlooked by less experienced dynasty players and is something that should be balanced against what feels like a sure thing in the short term.

Arizona Backfield

One of the storylines worth watching in August is how the competition for touches between Chase Edmonds and James Conner develops. This backfield is priced in both dynasty and redraft on an expectation of a roughly 55/45 split in favor of Edmonds. If you are skeptical of the narrative that this backfield will be a near-even split (like I am), Edmonds makes for an attractive trade target. If the price is right, this is a spot where the reward may outweigh the risk. Here are some reasons I am more bullish on Chase Edmonds than the consensus of the fantasy community:

  1. People are too afraid of James Conner based upon him being a relatively big fantasy name. The NFL does not view Conner in the same light. Here are some running backs who just signed richer free-agent deals than Conner this offseason: Devontae Booker, Mark Ingram, Carlos Hyde, Jeff Wilson, Marlon Mack, and Mike Boone.
  2. Chase Edmonds could be poised for a big year as a receiver. He had 53 receptions in 2020 despite sharing the backfield with Kenyan Drake, a plus receiver. Edmonds also has the ability to flex out into the slot. In fact, he played the third-most snaps in the slot amongst all running backs last season. Edmonds should catch 60+ passes this year.

Wide Receiver

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1
42
2
40
3
40
4
39
5
38
6
36
7
JaMarr Chase
35
8
34
9
34
10
28
11
28
12
D.J. Moore
27
13
27
14
26
15
26
16
25
17
25
18
24
19
Allen Robinson
24
20
22
21
22
22
22
23
20
24
19
25
18
26
18
27
17
28
17
29
16
30
16
31
15
32
14
33
D.J. Chark
14
34
13
35
Laviska Shenault
13
36
Odell Beckham
13
37
12
38
12
39
11
40
11
41
11
42
Michael Pittman
11
43
10
44
10
45
10
46
Terrace Marshall
10
47
9
48
Robby Anderson
9
49
9
50
9
51
Mecole Hardman
8
52
8
53
Will Fuller
8
54
7
55
7
56
Henry Ruggs
7
57
7
58
Gabriel Davis
6
59
DWayne Eskridge
6
60
6
61
6
62
5
63
5
64
5
65
5
66
4
67
4
68
4
69
4
70
Josh Palmer
4
71
4
72
4
73
4
74
4
75
K.J. Hamler
3
76
3
77
3
78
3
79
2
80
2
81
Marvin Jones
2
82
2
83
2
84
2
85
2
86
TreQuan Smith
2
87
2
88
2
89
1
90
1

### Best Ball ADP Movers

  • A.J. Brown’s ADP has dropped slightly since the acquisition of Julio Jones. The trade does not have a major impact on Brown’s long-term value but the increased competition for targets over the next couple years may serve as a tie-breaker against Brown in the conversation around who is the top dynasty wide receiver.
  • CeeDee Lamb continues to slowly creep up draft boards. He has leap-frogged teammate Amari Cooper and is now going in the third round of nearly every draft. For a player who just turned 22 years old, both the short-term and longer-term outlooks appear to be very bright.
  • Tee Higgins saw his ADP fall in the months after JaMarr Chase was drafted, but his best ball stock has rebounded in recent weeks. The ADP gap between him and Chase has begun to narrow. It is easy to get excited about the reports out of Cincinnati about the leap Higgins has made physically. If Higgins has a big 2021 season and becomes an elite dynasty wide receiver, it may be one of those things that will look obvious with the benefit of hindsight. As a 21-year old rookie learning on the fly due to no offseason, he put up an excellent 67-908-6 line and has all the indicators of a player who should continue to improve.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster’s ADP has fallen to 81st overall. He has been a strong fade for me each of the last two seasons, but it now feels like the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Smith-Schuster is now underrated in both redraft and dynasty. It is worth remembering he is still only 24 years old.
  • Laviska Shenault’s ADP has moved up into the seventh round after glowing training camp reports. Jacksonville’s offense is one of the biggest unknowns as we head into training camp, so getting an accurate read as quickly as possible on who is most likely to be Trevor Lawrence’s go-to target will be key. Best ball drafters still prefer D.J. Chark to Shenault, but the gap has closed.
  • Elijah Moore has become a popular 9th- or 10th-round best-ball pick and regularly goes off the board ahead of veteran teammate Corey Davis. He is also being drafted as the rookie WR4 and creating separation between himself and the other rookie wide receivers like Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall, and Kadarius Toney.

Tight End

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1
33
2
27
3
25
4
24
5
18
6
16
7
11
8
9
9
7
10
Irv Smith
6
11
6
12
6
13
6
14
6
15
Pat Freier
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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