Now that Week 8 is in the books, we're halfway to the fantasy championships in Week 17. And thank goodness. Now that we've seen half a season of football, we can separate what's real from what's fake. Drake Maye is the QB1. Kyler Murray has been a massive bust relative to his draft cost. No one is going to close the vast gap Jonathan Taylor currently has on the field. TreVeyon Henderson, Travis Hunter, Colston Loveland, and all of those other rookies you were excited to draft just aren't going to pan out. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rome Odunze, and George Pickens all broke out. Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield are just frustrating streamers.
We know these things to be true because we've already seen half a season of football. Look back at last year.
Through Week 8, we knew with absolute certainty that Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon were the two best running backs you could have drafted. Nico Collins is the per-game WR1. Can you imagine if you accidentally drafted Mike Evans ahead of Collins? That would be so embarrassing. Speaking of, could you imagine if you drafted A.J. Brown, the current WR2, ahead of Ja'Marr Chase?
You know where this is going.
Henry's per-game output over the second half of the year fell by 4.1 points. Mixon battled injuries and closed out the year as a frustrating RB3. Collins finished the year as a low-end WR2. Evans returned from injury and averaged 17.3 points per game, second only to Ja'Marr Chase. Remember the embarrassing Chase over Brown decision from your draft? Well, Chase's 22.8 points per game over the second half of the season were much more valuable than Brown's 12.7.
Back to my opening paragraph, does this mean Drake Maye is going to turn into a pumpkin? Will all of the rookies break out? Will the exciting young receivers come crashing down? Of course not. But this is a chaotic game, and things change quickly.
There's just as much to take in at this point as there is early in the year. We anchor ourselves to early-season biases when the season is fresh and exciting. Now, the team you cheer for has probably suffered a tough loss. The fantasy team you loved when you drafted it is suddenly starting Olamide Zaccheaus and Devin Singletary, and you're wondering where it all went wrong. It's easy to start checking out and mindlessly set a lineup, but that's a path to a middling finish and a playoff flame-out.
Finding minor usage trends and reading the tea leaves keeps you ahead of your league mates. A constant churn of your bench and improvements via trade add up over time.
Looking back at last year, some of those second-half changes could have been predicted. Derrick Henry was running red-hot, pacing for 24 touchdowns, a prime regression candidate. Injuries to running backs and a losing record forced the Bengals into the league's pass-heaviest offense, allowing for Chase's explosion. An injury to Chris Godwin and the league's friendliest schedule aided Mike Evans in his league-winning finish.
Last year, rookies like Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, and Drake Maye came on strong over the year's second half after sputtering starts. Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Sam Darnold all evolved from volatile streamers to elite QB1s.
That's where this article helps me, and how I hope it helps you. To generate these rankings, I'm forced to look at the profile for every player in every game every week. It helps me maintain a process throughout the season and remove potential biases from my analysis. I use these rest-of-season rankings as my guiding light through weekly transactions. I see if there are improvements to be made on the waiver wire. I reference these rankings when perusing for trades.
So while it's easy to kick back this time of year, thinking you know how the rest of the season will play out, I encourage you to try just a bit harder these weeks. Things are going to continue changing. Spend a few extra minutes scouring the waiver wire. Look around your league for some mutually beneficial trades.
Where most fantasy managers are cruising through the midway point of the year, identifying the risers and fallers before your league mates do can help your team be at its best when the games matter most.
As always, these rankings are just the output of one staffer. Please check out Bob Henry's Rest-of-Season Projections for a different opinion.
Let's start with the wide receivers this week, who boast some of the most dramatic risers and fallers of any position.
Rest-of-Season Wide Receiver Rankings
Injuries have opened up opportunities for a handful of receivers who have seized them with full advantage. The top of these rankings feels mostly locked in. While there might be some minor tweaking here and there, huge swings high in the rankings feel unlikely. Fringe receivers can quickly fall in and out of fantasy relevance for a myriad of reasons. As the "rest of the season" shortens with every passing week, I'll be more willing to move players in the middle of the rankings dramatically. Fewer remaining games make each week more important and production worth chasing.
- WR1 - Ja'Marr Chase (+1) - Extrapolating Chase's two games with Joe Flacco over a full season would pace out to 238 receptions on 357 targets. (That's not a joke.) Of course, that number is unsustainable, but he's pulling 53.8% of the team's targets, a cartoonish share. Chase is arguably the league's best receiver and was only bumped down due to his circumstances. With a competent quarterback who understands the assignment (get the ball to Chase), he moves back atop the rankings.
- WR2 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-1) - I refuse to write anything poorly about Smith-Njigba to explain why he's moving down in the rankings. He's only being passed by Ja'Marr Chase, who has 42 targets in two games with Joe Flacco.
- WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
- WR4 - Puka Nacua
- WR5 - CeeDee Lamb
- WR6 - Drake London
- WR7 - Justin Jefferson
- WR8 - Rashee Rice (+1)
- WR9 - Davante Adams (-1)
- WR10 - A.J. Brown (+1)
- WR11 - Rome Odunze (+1)
- WR12 - Nico Collins (-2)
- WR13 - Emeka Egbuka (+1)
- WR14 - Tetairoa McMillan (-1)
- WR15 - Ladd McConkey (+14) - It's easy to get anchored to biases born from early-season production. Through the first four games of the year, McConkey ranked as PPR's WR51, averaging just 8.4 fantasy points and 6.8 targets per game. He was a steady faller in this series. Over the four games since, he's the WR6, averaging 18.6 PPR points and 10.3 targets per game. This recent stretch looks much more like the plug-and-play WR1 production we saw from him last year. McConkey is one of the league's best young receivers on an explosive offense with a great quarterback. His slow start now looks like a minor blip in his entire body of work.
- WR16 - George Pickens (-1)
- WR17 - Jaylen Waddle
- WR18 - Xavier Worthy (-2)
- WR19 - DK Metcalf (-1)
- WR20 - Zay Flowers
- WR21 - Garrett Wilson (-2)
- WR22 - Chris Olave (+2)
- WR23 - Brian Thomas Jr.
- WR24 - Michael Pittman Jr. (+2)
- WR25 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
- WR26 - Quentin Johnston (-5) - The Chargers' receiver room has been incredibly mercurial this year. Johnston looked like a classic third-year wide receiver breakout to start the year, averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game through the first four weeks, fourth-highest among all receivers. He suffered a hamstring injury in Week 5, missed the following week, and has averaged just 6.0 PPR points per game since, including a zero-point outing last week. Johnston may still be affected by his hamstring injury, but he's reportedly practicing and playing at full capacity. It's also possible that rookie Oronde Gadsden II's breakout is coming at the expense of Johnston, as he's operating in a similar role. Johnston's ceiling was evident early in the year. He's a highly athletic first-rounder with immense upside. That causes hesitancy in pushing him too far down the rankings. But given the production through his first two years in the league, there's reason for concern about his recent cold streak.
- WR27 - Courtland Sutton (+1)
- WR28 - Ricky Pearsall (-6) - Every game Pearsall misses allows for Jauan Jennings and George Kittle to heal and Brandon Aiyuk to inch closer to a return. Pearsall looked good early in the season, but it's fair to question how he'll acclimate to the offense and what his health may look like upon returning.
- WR29 - DeVonta Smith (+3)
- WR30 - Travis Hunter (+3)
- WR31 - Deebo Samuel Sr. (-4)
- WR32 - Jordan Addison (+2)
- WR33 - Keenan Allen (-3)
- WR34 - Tee Higgins (-3)
- WR35 - Stefon Diggs
- WR36 - Jauan Jennings (+4)
- WR37 - Terry McLaurin (+6)
- WR38 - Jameson Williams (-2)
- WR39 - Wan'Dale Robinson (-2)
- WR40 - Khalil Shakir (+2)
- WR41 - Romeo Doubs (-3)
- WR42 - DJ Moore (-1)
- WR43 - Tez Johnson (+26) - The Buccaneers' lopsided Week 8 win over the Saints came mainly from the run game, as Baker Mayfield threw for just 152 scoreless yards. Johnson's rise in the rankings is due to his involvement, not his production. His six targets were second on the team behind only Emeka Egbuka, and he tied with him for a team-high 26 routes run. With Mike Evans presumed to be out for the remainder of the regular season and concerns about Chris Godwin's ankle and fibula, Johnson should be treated as the Buccaneers' WR2 for the foreseeable future. Mayfield has elevated the talent around him since joining Tampa Bay, and Johnson's role as a full-time player shouldn't be ignored.
- WR44 - Kayshon Boutte (+3)
- WR45 - Josh Downs (-1)
- WR46 - Chris Godwin Jr. (+2)
- WR47 - Jakobi Meyers (-2)
- WR48 - Tre Tucker (-2)
- WR49 - Rashid Shaheed (+5)
- WR50 - Christian Watson (+37) - I had major concerns about how Watson would return from last year's Week 18 ACL tear. In his first game back, he played over half of the team's offensive snaps and caught all four of his targets for 85 yards. His first catch came on the opening drive, a quick five-yard out route. His next three targets were all deep attempts: a 19-yard out on the final drive before halftime to set up a score, a 33-yard deep post just short of a touchdown, and a 28-yard catch on a simple crossing pattern. Watson is a 6'4" receiver with size-adjusted speed in the 98th percentile. Pushing the ball downfield is in Jordan Love's comfort zone, but Green Bay hasn't had a legitimate threat in that role all year. Watson should quickly find his role alongside Romeo Doubs in two-receiver sets, pushing him into consideration as a boom/bust WR4 with plenty of room to grow.
- WR51 - Troy Franklin (+17) - While the rest of the Broncos' receiver room is in constant flux, Franklin has ranked in the top two with Courtland Sutton in routes run every game so far this year. A big two-touchdown game in Week 8 vaulted him to the per-game WR38 in PPR. Bo Nix has spread the ball all over the offense this year, making all Broncos' receivers frustrating. But Franklin has enough usage to make for a high-ceiling, albeit risky, flex option.
- WR52 - Matthew Golden (-13) - Christian Watson's involvement will likely come at the expense of Golden, who saw no downfield action in Week 8. He caught all three of his targets but managed just four yards. He also logged his lowest snap share since the bye. Golden is a first-round talent with blazing speed, but his flashes this year have been fleeting. With Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, and Christian Watson all playing well, it's tough to see Golden carving out a steady role.
- WR53 - Cooper Kupp (-2)
- WR54 - Calvin Ridley (-4)
- WR55 - Alec Pierce (+7)
- WR56 - Marquise Brown (-3)
- WR57 - Jerry Jeudy (-8)
- WR58 - Tory Horton (-2)
- WR59 - DeMario Douglas (+5)
- WR60 - Keon Coleman (-8)
- WR61 - Darnell Mooney (-6)
- WR62 - Jalen Coker (-2)
- WR63 - Elic Ayomanor (-5)
- WR64 - Xavier Legette (-3)
- WR65 - Christian Kirk (-6)
- WR66 - Jayden Higgins (+6)
- WR67 - Parker Washington (-1)
- WR68 - Brandon Aiyuk (+6)
- WR69 - KaVontae Turpin (-4)
- WR70 - Chimere Dike (New) – Despite a slow start to the year, Dike was drafted ahead of Elic Ayomanor and was the first pick on Day 3 of this year's Draft. Expectations were that he'd replicate his big-play production from Florida in the pros. Dike ran a blazing 4.34 in the 40-yard dash, and his 9.71 Relative Athletic Score ranked sixth among drafted receivers. That speed was on display two weeks ago when he torched the Patriots for a 38-yard touchdown, the first of his NFL career. In the following game, he doubled his target total and led the team with a career-high 93 yards. Dike has quietly averaged five targets per game over the last four weeks. While it's too early to view him as a startable option, he's worth a stash in deep leagues to see whether his involvement holds when Calvin Ridley returns from injury.
- WR71 - Olamide Zaccheaus
- WR72 - Luther Burden III (-2)
- WR73 - Dyami Brown (+3)
- WR74 - Tre' Harris (+4)
- WR75 - Rashod Bateman (+9)
- WR76 - Calvin Austin III (-9)
- WR77 - JuJu Smith-Schuster (+9)
- WR78 - Malik Washington (+3)
- WR79 - Tyquan Thornton (-22) - With Xavier Worthy injured and Rashee Rice suspended early in the year, Thornton stepped up admirably, making a big play seemingly every week. With the receiver corps at full strength, though, Thornton finds himself looking in from the outside. He's been relegated to a very minimal role, seeing just two targets over the last three games. He's droppable in most formats.
- WR80 - Roman Wilson (New) – After being selected in Round 3 last year, there were expectations that Wilson would quickly become a starting receiver. He was a pivotal part of Michigan's National Championship-winning squad in 2023, scoring a touchdown on a quarter of his receptions. Although Michigan ran a low-volume passing offense, Wilson flashed tenacity as a blocker and enough big-play ability to make him a desirable prospect. He essentially redshirted his rookie season after suffering a preseason injury. And after almost no involvement through the first six games this year, he broke out with the best game of his young career against the Packers in Week 8. Just like in college, Wilson's plays came with panache. He had a toe-tapping sideline grab 45 yards downfield early in the game. Just before the two-minute warning, he squeezed a tightly contested 21-yard touchdown catch. After putting some strong plays on tape in Week 8, the second-year receiver could see a bigger role going forward.
- WR81 - Marvin Mims Jr. (-4)
- WR82 - Jordan Whittington (-9)
- WR83 - Kendrick Bourne (-8)
- WR84 - Jaylin Noel (+19)
- WR85 - Darius Slayton (+5)
- WR86 - Andrei Iosivas (+6)
- WR87 - Pat Bryant (+31) – Bryant's involvement in the offense has gradually increasing since Week 4, with a steady uptick in routes run. While that hadn't translated to much production through Week 7, Bryant drew a season-high four targets in Week 8, catching two for 40 yards and his first NFL touchdown. More notably, he ran more routes than Marvin Mims Jr. For now, Bryant is only a stash in deep leagues, but this late in the rankings, it doesn't take much for a player to swing upward in a hurry.
- WR88 - Jalen Tolbert (-9)
- WR89 - Jack Bech (-9)
- WR90 - Sterling Shepard (-5)
- WR91 - Isaiah Bond (-28) - Any excitement that was bubbling up for Bond has fizzled since Dillon Gabriel took over as the starter. The offense has centered around the tight ends, with Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku totaling 34 receptions and 324 yards with Gabriel. All of the wide receivers combined have amassed just 23 catches and 283 yards. Bond has averaged just 9.5 yards per game over the last four weeks, including back-to-back zeroes. Bond is off the fantasy radar in most formats.
- WR92 - Luke McCaffrey (-3)
- WR93 - Michael Wilson (-2)
- WR94 - Mike Evans (-6)
- WR95 - Jalen Nailor (+5)
- WR96 - Elijah Moore (New)
- WR97 - Tyler Lockett (+19) – After being a complete afterthought in the Titans' offense, Lockett requested his release. The team honored his wish, and he signed with the Raiders. Lockett has a history with Geno Smith and Pete Carroll, but the 33-year-old receiver has been trending downward for the past few years. Tre Tucker currently holds the role he hopes to fill. Additionally, Brock Bowers should return after the bye and maintain his role atop the pecking order. A change of scenery and some familiar faces could help Lockett rewind the clock, hence his bump in the rankings. Still, expectations should remain very minimal.
- WR98 - Jahan Dotson (+14) - Typically, Dotson runs clear-out routes for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. With Brown missing this game due to a hamstring injury, Dotson drew a couple of targets. He caught one for a 40-yard score. Theoretically, there's some contingent upside for Dotson if Brown and Smith have to miss any time. But as we saw in this game, they'll just lean on Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert. A touchdown breathes a bit of life into Dotson's season, but he's still off the radar in most leagues.
- WR99 - DeAndre Hopkins (-6)
- WR100 - Brandin Cooks (-4)
- WR101 - Chris Moore (-3)
- WR102 - Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (New)
- WR103 - Savion Williams (+7)
- WR104 - Tyler Johnson (New)
- WR105 - Xavier Hutchinson (+12)
- WR106 - Josh Reynolds (-11)
- WR107 - Jaylin Lane (-5)
- WR108 - Tutu Atwell (-11)
- WR109 - Arian Smith (New)
- WR110 - Demarcus Robinson (New)
- WR111 - Jamari Thrash (New)
- WR112 - Van Jefferson (New)
- WR113 - Adonai Mitchell (-6)
- WR114 - Jalen McMillan (-9)
- WR115 - Devaughn Vele (New)
- WR116 - KhaDarel Hodge (New)
- WR117 - Kameron Johnson (-34) - After filling in admirably for Mike Evans in Week 6 and catching a touchdown, there was hope that Johnson could have some contingent upside as the team's backup X-receiver. Evans left Week 7's game with a broken collarbone, but Johnson was a complete afterthought in Week 8. He didn't run a single route. He logged just six snaps, five of which were on running plays. He's droppable in all leagues.
- WR118 - Joshua Palmer (-19)
- WR119 - Dontayvion Wicks (-18)
- WR120 - Cedric Tillman (-9)
- WR121 - Jimmy Horn Jr. (-17)
- WR122 - Ray-Ray McCloud III (-16)
- WR123 - Isaac TeSlaa (-15)
- WR124 - Mack Hollins (New)
- WR125 - Ryan Flournoy (-10)
- WR126 - Dont'e Thornton Jr. (-17)
- WR127 - Adam Thielen (-14)
- WR128 - Greg Dortch (-14)